MLB Best Player Props March 30: Colorado's C.J. Cron to Have Big Day
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Thursday, March 30, 2023, at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
C.J. Cron Over/Under 0.5 Hits
For this bet to hit, we need to decide whether Rockies' first baseman will get at least one hit or not.
If we think that he will get at least one hit, then we should bet on the "over."
Conversely, if we think that he will not get any hits, then we should bet on the "under."
For reasons that I am about to explain, you should bet the "over" on the player prop bet C.J. Cron over/under 0.5 hits.
Great Matchup
Cron had an odd year last year.
He is a righty, but his BA was .72 higher against right-handed pitchers than against left-handed ones.
But this disparity is unusual for him.
In 2021, he hit .311 against lefties compared to .269 against righties.
Indeed, in his career, his BA is .08 higher against lefties than against righties.
All of this is to say that looks promising against any left-handed pitcher and that his chances of getting a hit off a right-handed pitcher should not be dismissed.
Facing Blake Snell
San Diego is starting lefty Blake Snell today.
Snell is at a disadvantage against right-handed batters in that their slugging rate against him is .67 higher than that of left-handed batters.
Cron exemplifies the added success that righties in general have collected against Snell.
In his career, Cron is 9-for-20 with two doubles and a homer when facing today's Padre starter.
We can expect Cron to see Snell at least two times, and he should get a hit on at least one of those occasions.
Opening Day Trend for Cron
Even if Cron were not to get a hit off Snell, our bet will still hit if he gets a hit off some other pitcher.
History should lead us to cling to this expectation because he has gotten a hit in each of his last four Opening Day games.
Best Bet: C.J. Cron Over 0.5 Hits at -110 with Bovada
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Eloy Jimenez Over/Under 0.5 Hits
For this prop bet, we must decide whether White Sox right fielder Eloy Jimenez will get at least one hit or not.
If we think that he'll get at least a hit, then we should bet the "over."
However, if we believe that he won't get a hit, then we should bet the "under."
For reasons that I will now explain, you should play the "under" on his over/under 0.5 hits.
An Interesting Case
The Jimenez over/under 0.5 hits might look like an easy "over" because Jimenez is a righty and Astro starter Framber Valdez is a lefty.
Right-handed batters do typically fare better against southpaws.
But Jimenez is not your typical case.
In his career, his BA is .282 against righties but .257 against lefties.
He is thus at a disadvantage today because Houston's starter is a lefty.
Astros' Relievers
When Valdez leaves the game, Jimenez may get to face a righty.
But Houston's bullpen is arguably one of baseball's best if not the very best.
Closer Ryan Pressly, for example, has earned a sub-three ERA in both of his last two seasons.
Last season, righties hit .184 and slugged .276 when he was on the mound.
Slow-Starting Jimenez
Another factor that should lead us anyhow to be inclined to go against Jimenez is the fact that he is typically a slow starter.
Part of the reason why his career BA is .40 higher in the second half of the season than the first is that it is .235 in March/April.
Best Bet: Eloy Jimenez Under 0.5 Hits at +150 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Freddie Freeman Over/Under 0.5 Hits
For this bet, we must decide whether Dodgers' first baseman will collect at least one hit or not.
If we think that he'll get at least a hit, then we should bet the "over."
In turn, if we believe that he won't get a hit, then we should bet the "under."
For reasons that I will now explain, you should play the "under" on his over/under 0.5 hits.
Freeman's Outlook
Freeman's outlook is negative today because he's dealing with Diamondbacks' starter Zac Gallen.
Freeman is 1-for-9 in his career against Gallen.
Now is not the time to expect Freeman to turn around his numbers against Gallen nor to get a hit in the limited at-bats he'll possibly have against other pitchers.
This is the worst time of the year for Freeman backers -- statistically, in his career, Freeman is at his worst in March/April.
Best Bet: Freddie Freeman under 0.5 Hits at +170 with Bovada
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Thursday, March 30, 2023, at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
C.J. Cron Over/Under 0.5 Hits
For this bet to hit, we need to decide whether Rockies' first baseman will get at least one hit or not.
If we think that he will get at least one hit, then we should bet on the "over."
Conversely, if we think that he will not get any hits, then we should bet on the "under."
For reasons that I am about to explain, you should bet the "over" on the player prop bet C.J. Cron over/under 0.5 hits.
Great Matchup
Cron had an odd year last year.
He is a righty, but his BA was .72 higher against right-handed pitchers than against left-handed ones.
But this disparity is unusual for him.
In 2021, he hit .311 against lefties compared to .269 against righties.
Indeed, in his career, his BA is .08 higher against lefties than against righties.
All of this is to say that looks promising against any left-handed pitcher and that his chances of getting a hit off a right-handed pitcher should not be dismissed.
Facing Blake Snell
San Diego is starting lefty Blake Snell today.
Snell is at a disadvantage against right-handed batters in that their slugging rate against him is .67 higher than that of left-handed batters.
Cron exemplifies the added success that righties in general have collected against Snell.
In his career, Cron is 9-for-20 with two doubles and a homer when facing today's Padre starter.
We can expect Cron to see Snell at least two times, and he should get a hit on at least one of those occasions.
Opening Day Trend for Cron
Even if Cron were not to get a hit off Snell, our bet will still hit if he gets a hit off some other pitcher.
History should lead us to cling to this expectation because he has gotten a hit in each of his last four Opening Day games.
Best Bet: C.J. Cron Over 0.5 Hits at -110 with Bovada
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Eloy Jimenez Over/Under 0.5 Hits
For this prop bet, we must decide whether White Sox right fielder Eloy Jimenez will get at least one hit or not.
If we think that he'll get at least a hit, then we should bet the "over."
However, if we believe that he won't get a hit, then we should bet the "under."
For reasons that I will now explain, you should play the "under" on his over/under 0.5 hits.
An Interesting Case
The Jimenez over/under 0.5 hits might look like an easy "over" because Jimenez is a righty and Astro starter Framber Valdez is a lefty.
Right-handed batters do typically fare better against southpaws.
But Jimenez is not your typical case.
In his career, his BA is .282 against righties but .257 against lefties.
He is thus at a disadvantage today because Houston's starter is a lefty.
Astros' Relievers
When Valdez leaves the game, Jimenez may get to face a righty.
But Houston's bullpen is arguably one of baseball's best if not the very best.
Closer Ryan Pressly, for example, has earned a sub-three ERA in both of his last two seasons.
Last season, righties hit .184 and slugged .276 when he was on the mound.
Slow-Starting Jimenez
Another factor that should lead us anyhow to be inclined to go against Jimenez is the fact that he is typically a slow starter.
Part of the reason why his career BA is .40 higher in the second half of the season than the first is that it is .235 in March/April.
Best Bet: Eloy Jimenez Under 0.5 Hits at +150 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Freddie Freeman Over/Under 0.5 Hits
For this bet, we must decide whether Dodgers' first baseman will collect at least one hit or not.
If we think that he'll get at least a hit, then we should bet the "over."
In turn, if we believe that he won't get a hit, then we should bet the "under."
For reasons that I will now explain, you should play the "under" on his over/under 0.5 hits.
Freeman's Outlook
Freeman's outlook is negative today because he's dealing with Diamondbacks' starter Zac Gallen.
Freeman is 1-for-9 in his career against Gallen.
Now is not the time to expect Freeman to turn around his numbers against Gallen nor to get a hit in the limited at-bats he'll possibly have against other pitchers.
This is the worst time of the year for Freeman backers -- statistically, in his career, Freeman is at his worst in March/April.
Best Bet: Freddie Freeman under 0.5 Hits at +170 with Bovada
