3 Player Props April 20: Kris Bryant Leads the Way in Rockies-Phillies Game
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for Colorado?
Ryan Feltner starts for the Rockies.
Feltner has been hittable in every start he's made so far, allowing five earned runs in 4.2 innings in his season opener at Dodger Stadium, and then three earned runs in five innings against the Nationals, and most recently five earned runs in 3.2 innings in Seattle.
His current season ERA of 8.78 is hardly a piece of bad luck.
Opponents have been getting a lot of medium or hard contact against his pitches.
He's also allowed a home run in both of his road starts thus far.
Feltner's Pitches
Feltner is a righty who throws five different pitches, a slider, fastball, sinker, change-up, and curveball.
He doesn't throw any of these pitches over 30.7 percent of the time, so opponents will encounter a good mixture.
His sinker, in particular, is vulnerable, which is a problem because he throws it 20.2 percent of the time.
Opposing batters are hitting .692 and slugging 1.077 against this pitch.
But it seems highly likely that at least some of his other pitches yield higher slugging averages.
Opponents last year, for example, crushed his fastball. This year, his fastball has a lower spin rate than it did last year while the average velo is just a tad higher.
Philadelphia's Brandon Marsh
I like Brandon Marsh to take advantage of Feltner's pitching repertoire.
He slugs .588 in 34 at-bats against Feltner's pitches.
Plus, he is hot.
Marsh has at least one hit in four straight games. In three of those games, he achieved one extra-base hit.
I recommend investing in a player prop bet that cashes when Marsh gets at least one extra-base hit or least two singles.
Best Bet: Brandon Marsh to record 2+ total bases at +135 with Bovada
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Matt Strahm starts for the Phillies.
Strahm's ERA looks nice, but ERA is a surface-level statistic that can mask a lot of things.
For one, his ERA does not show that he is yielding hard contact at an extraordinarily high rate.
While inducing soft contact 6.9 percent of the time, opponents are making hard contact against his pitches with 44.8 percent frequency.
This high hard contact rate appears especially concerning in tandem with the high rate at which he allows fly balls.
Hard hit balls and fly balls should translate into more home runs.
In his last game, he allowed three runs in 2.2 innings in Cincinnati.
He also surrendered a home run.
This last, negative performance should be a sign of things to come for Strahm.
Strahm's Pitches
Strahm throws a fastball, slider, sinker, and curveball.
These four pitches make up 99.5 percent of his arsenal.
His favorite pitch is his fastball, which has decent velo but also some spin.
Heat maps show that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the plate, though.
So opposing batters will get a lot of good chances to hit the pitch that Strahm throws most often.
Colorado's Charlie Blackmon
Blackmon has already proven himself against Strahm.
In his career with Strahm on the mound, he is 3-for-8 with a home run, which amounts to a .375 BA and .750 slugging rate.
Besides boasting a solid track record against Strahm, Blackmon slugs a highly promising .500 against his pitches from lefties.
For the above reasons, count on him today to record at least two singles, or at least one extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Charlie Blackmon to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
Strahm, The Lefty
With our final prop bet recommendation in mind, it is important to emphasize that Strahm is a lefty.
He is your conventional lefty who does worse against right-handed batters.
This disparity in his quality against right- and left-handed batters is not apparent, yet, in his surface-level stats.
But this disparity is bound to be evident sooner rather than later.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 2.40 worse against right-handed batters than against left-handed ones.
Righties have merely suffered from a BABIP (batting average of balls in play)
that is unfortunately low given the extent to which they accomplish hard contact against his pitches.
Strahm's Pitches
Conventionally, pitchers rely on a curveball and change-up to handle opposite-handed batters with.
But Strahm has thrown literally one change-up all season, and his curveball is his other least-favorite pitch in terms of frequency with which he throws it.
Right-handed batters will thus get more chances to hit pitches that they like to see more.
Colorado's Kris Bryant
Rockies' right fielder Kris Bryant is primed to thrive against Strahm's pitches.
As a righty, Bryant has a strong advantage today.
He boasts a .923 slugging rate against Strahm's pitches from lefties.
This excellent slugging rate is consistent with his .778 slugging rate against lefties in general.
Bryant also enters today's game in good form. He's achieved three extra-base hits in his last 10 at-bats combined.
Let's expect him, therefore, to achieve at least one extra-base hit or at least two singles in today's game.
Best Bet: Kris Bryant to record 2+ total bases at +105 with Bovada
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for Colorado?
Ryan Feltner starts for the Rockies.
Feltner has been hittable in every start he's made so far, allowing five earned runs in 4.2 innings in his season opener at Dodger Stadium, and then three earned runs in five innings against the Nationals, and most recently five earned runs in 3.2 innings in Seattle.
His current season ERA of 8.78 is hardly a piece of bad luck.
Opponents have been getting a lot of medium or hard contact against his pitches.
He's also allowed a home run in both of his road starts thus far.
Feltner's Pitches
Feltner is a righty who throws five different pitches, a slider, fastball, sinker, change-up, and curveball.
He doesn't throw any of these pitches over 30.7 percent of the time, so opponents will encounter a good mixture.
His sinker, in particular, is vulnerable, which is a problem because he throws it 20.2 percent of the time.
Opposing batters are hitting .692 and slugging 1.077 against this pitch.
But it seems highly likely that at least some of his other pitches yield higher slugging averages.
Opponents last year, for example, crushed his fastball. This year, his fastball has a lower spin rate than it did last year while the average velo is just a tad higher.
Philadelphia's Brandon Marsh
I like Brandon Marsh to take advantage of Feltner's pitching repertoire.
He slugs .588 in 34 at-bats against Feltner's pitches.
Plus, he is hot.
Marsh has at least one hit in four straight games. In three of those games, he achieved one extra-base hit.
I recommend investing in a player prop bet that cashes when Marsh gets at least one extra-base hit or least two singles.
Best Bet: Brandon Marsh to record 2+ total bases at +135 with Bovada
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Matt Strahm starts for the Phillies.
Strahm's ERA looks nice, but ERA is a surface-level statistic that can mask a lot of things.
For one, his ERA does not show that he is yielding hard contact at an extraordinarily high rate.
While inducing soft contact 6.9 percent of the time, opponents are making hard contact against his pitches with 44.8 percent frequency.
This high hard contact rate appears especially concerning in tandem with the high rate at which he allows fly balls.
Hard hit balls and fly balls should translate into more home runs.
In his last game, he allowed three runs in 2.2 innings in Cincinnati.
He also surrendered a home run.
This last, negative performance should be a sign of things to come for Strahm.
Strahm's Pitches
Strahm throws a fastball, slider, sinker, and curveball.
These four pitches make up 99.5 percent of his arsenal.
His favorite pitch is his fastball, which has decent velo but also some spin.
Heat maps show that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the plate, though.
So opposing batters will get a lot of good chances to hit the pitch that Strahm throws most often.
Colorado's Charlie Blackmon
Blackmon has already proven himself against Strahm.
In his career with Strahm on the mound, he is 3-for-8 with a home run, which amounts to a .375 BA and .750 slugging rate.
Besides boasting a solid track record against Strahm, Blackmon slugs a highly promising .500 against his pitches from lefties.
For the above reasons, count on him today to record at least two singles, or at least one extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Charlie Blackmon to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
Strahm, The Lefty
With our final prop bet recommendation in mind, it is important to emphasize that Strahm is a lefty.
He is your conventional lefty who does worse against right-handed batters.
This disparity in his quality against right- and left-handed batters is not apparent, yet, in his surface-level stats.
But this disparity is bound to be evident sooner rather than later.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 2.40 worse against right-handed batters than against left-handed ones.
Righties have merely suffered from a BABIP (batting average of balls in play)
that is unfortunately low given the extent to which they accomplish hard contact against his pitches.
Strahm's Pitches
Conventionally, pitchers rely on a curveball and change-up to handle opposite-handed batters with.
But Strahm has thrown literally one change-up all season, and his curveball is his other least-favorite pitch in terms of frequency with which he throws it.
Right-handed batters will thus get more chances to hit pitches that they like to see more.
Colorado's Kris Bryant
Rockies' right fielder Kris Bryant is primed to thrive against Strahm's pitches.
As a righty, Bryant has a strong advantage today.
He boasts a .923 slugging rate against Strahm's pitches from lefties.
This excellent slugging rate is consistent with his .778 slugging rate against lefties in general.
Bryant also enters today's game in good form. He's achieved three extra-base hits in his last 10 at-bats combined.
Let's expect him, therefore, to achieve at least one extra-base hit or at least two singles in today's game.
Best Bet: Kris Bryant to record 2+ total bases at +105 with Bovada
