3 Player Props July 6: Starting Pitchers Duel in the Desert
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, July 6, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Baltimore starts Kyle Bradish tonight.
Bradish carries strong form into today's game: he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts.
This trend is particularly impressive because he has sustained it against strong lineups, such as Tampa Bay's and Toronto's.
During this four-start run, he has done a good job of inducing soft contact while avoiding hard contact.
Bradish's Arsenal
Bradish throws a slider, fastball, sinker, curveball, and changeup.
The variety in his arsenal helps him avoid hard contact by keeping himself less predictable for batters.
He doesn't throw a single pitch as much as 30 percent of the time.
As a result of his comfort with many different pitches, he can be flexible and emphasize different ones depending on the matchup and depending on which pitches are working for him especially well in a given outing.
Furthermore, Bradish ably avoids hard contact with a relatively strong combination of spin and velocity, which makes it difficult for batters to keep up with and track his pitches.
His two most distinct pitches are his slider and fastball, both of which boast unique levels of horizontal movement, making him an unusual pitcher for batters to face.
Yankees' Lineup
New York's hitting outlook is negative today because, since superstar Aaron Judge's absence began on June 4, it ranks dead-last with a .336 slugging rate against Bradish's pitches from righties.
Without Judge, Yankee batters are not scary.
Anthony Rizzo, for example, is 2-for-17 in July.
Best Bet: Kyle Bradish under 2.5 earned runs allowed at -140 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, July 6, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for the Mets?
Carlos Carrasco starts for the Mets.
Carrasco is a perfect example why ERA tends to be a misleading statistic at this point in the season.
ERA is a season-long statistic, yet it is a long season.
Carrasco's ERA looks awful because he pitched atrociously in his first four starts of the season, three of which took place in April and the fourth on May 19.
But his current form shows that he is an improved pitcher, although oddsmakers are treating him like he is still in April and May because they are slow to make adjustments.
In each of his last two starts, Carrasco has allowed two earned runs.
Carrasco's Arsenal
Carrasco throws a fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, and sinker.
His arsenal features a challenging mixture of locational tendencies and velocity averages.
While he tends to locate his fastball up in the zone, he tends to bury his changeup.
In using them to change the batter's eye level, he plays these pitches well off each other.
He throws his changeup relatively hard.
To create a more intense change of pace relative to his fastball, he mixes in a curveball that averages about 12 fewer mph.
This change of pace helps keep batters off-balance.
Arizona's Lineup
Arizona is playing poorly at the moment: the Diamondbacks have lost three in a row.
They've scored three runs or fewer in three of their last four starts.
Playing at home won't help, because Carrasco is comfortable in Arizona's dry climate, where his career ERA is 2.00.
Best Bet: Carlos Carrasco under 3.5 earned runs allowed at -160 with BetOnline
Who Starts for Arizona?
Ryne Nelson starts for the Diamondbacks today.
Nelson carries strong form into today's game.
Two starts ago, he allowed three hits and one earned run in seven innings against the Giants.
In his last start, he allowed three hits and one earned run in 7.1 innings against the Angels.
During this two-start stretch, he has reduced his season average of hard contact rate allowed.
Nelson's Arsenal
Nelson throws a fastball, cutter, changeup, slider, and curveball.
His current form is not a product of luck: he made changes to his arsenal that are proving to be effective.
Most prominently, he altered his fastball.
As measured by things such as spin rate, this is a different pitch.
The effectivity of his alterations to his fastball is evident in the fact that, two starts ago, batters achieved zero hits in 15 tries against this pitch.
In his last start, this pitch yielded a .071 BA.
It's critical that Nelson's fastball is good because it's easily his favorite pitch to throw.
He throws this pitch over 50 percent of the time, so he easily has stuff to throw that he can rely on effectively.
Even before he entered his current form, he could rely especially on his changeup and slider.
Supported by a relatively strong velocity differential relative to his fastball, which creates a more intense change of pace, his changeup yields a .171 BA.
Aided by powerful horizontal movement, his slider yields a .205 BA.
The Matchup
Nelson's outlook is strong today because the Mets rank 22nd in slugging .394 against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Ryne Nelson under 2.5 earned runs at +110 with BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, July 6, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
- Kyle Bradish shows strong form
- Bradish does a lot of different things to do a good job of avoiding hard contact
- The Yankees match up very poorly against Bradish, especially with Aaron Judge still sidelined.
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Baltimore starts Kyle Bradish tonight.
Bradish carries strong form into today's game: he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts.
This trend is particularly impressive because he has sustained it against strong lineups, such as Tampa Bay's and Toronto's.
During this four-start run, he has done a good job of inducing soft contact while avoiding hard contact.
Bradish's Arsenal
Bradish throws a slider, fastball, sinker, curveball, and changeup.
The variety in his arsenal helps him avoid hard contact by keeping himself less predictable for batters.
He doesn't throw a single pitch as much as 30 percent of the time.
As a result of his comfort with many different pitches, he can be flexible and emphasize different ones depending on the matchup and depending on which pitches are working for him especially well in a given outing.
Furthermore, Bradish ably avoids hard contact with a relatively strong combination of spin and velocity, which makes it difficult for batters to keep up with and track his pitches.
His two most distinct pitches are his slider and fastball, both of which boast unique levels of horizontal movement, making him an unusual pitcher for batters to face.
Yankees' Lineup
New York's hitting outlook is negative today because, since superstar Aaron Judge's absence began on June 4, it ranks dead-last with a .336 slugging rate against Bradish's pitches from righties.
Without Judge, Yankee batters are not scary.
Anthony Rizzo, for example, is 2-for-17 in July.
Best Bet: Kyle Bradish under 2.5 earned runs allowed at -140 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, July 6, 2023 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
- Carlos Carrasco has improved his form
- Carrasco is comfortable pitching in Arizona's dry climate
- The Diamondbacks are slumping
Who Starts for the Mets?
Carlos Carrasco starts for the Mets.
Carrasco is a perfect example why ERA tends to be a misleading statistic at this point in the season.
ERA is a season-long statistic, yet it is a long season.
Carrasco's ERA looks awful because he pitched atrociously in his first four starts of the season, three of which took place in April and the fourth on May 19.
But his current form shows that he is an improved pitcher, although oddsmakers are treating him like he is still in April and May because they are slow to make adjustments.
In each of his last two starts, Carrasco has allowed two earned runs.
Carrasco's Arsenal
Carrasco throws a fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, and sinker.
His arsenal features a challenging mixture of locational tendencies and velocity averages.
While he tends to locate his fastball up in the zone, he tends to bury his changeup.
In using them to change the batter's eye level, he plays these pitches well off each other.
He throws his changeup relatively hard.
To create a more intense change of pace relative to his fastball, he mixes in a curveball that averages about 12 fewer mph.
This change of pace helps keep batters off-balance.
Arizona's Lineup
Arizona is playing poorly at the moment: the Diamondbacks have lost three in a row.
They've scored three runs or fewer in three of their last four starts.
Playing at home won't help, because Carrasco is comfortable in Arizona's dry climate, where his career ERA is 2.00.
Best Bet: Carlos Carrasco under 3.5 earned runs allowed at -160 with BetOnline
- Partly by improving his fastball, Nelson has developed strong form
- In any outing, Nelson easily finds effective pitches to rely on
- The Mets hit Nelson's pitches poorly
Who Starts for Arizona?
Ryne Nelson starts for the Diamondbacks today.
Nelson carries strong form into today's game.
Two starts ago, he allowed three hits and one earned run in seven innings against the Giants.
In his last start, he allowed three hits and one earned run in 7.1 innings against the Angels.
During this two-start stretch, he has reduced his season average of hard contact rate allowed.
Nelson's Arsenal
Nelson throws a fastball, cutter, changeup, slider, and curveball.
His current form is not a product of luck: he made changes to his arsenal that are proving to be effective.
Most prominently, he altered his fastball.
As measured by things such as spin rate, this is a different pitch.
The effectivity of his alterations to his fastball is evident in the fact that, two starts ago, batters achieved zero hits in 15 tries against this pitch.
In his last start, this pitch yielded a .071 BA.
It's critical that Nelson's fastball is good because it's easily his favorite pitch to throw.
He throws this pitch over 50 percent of the time, so he easily has stuff to throw that he can rely on effectively.
Even before he entered his current form, he could rely especially on his changeup and slider.
Supported by a relatively strong velocity differential relative to his fastball, which creates a more intense change of pace, his changeup yields a .171 BA.
Aided by powerful horizontal movement, his slider yields a .205 BA.
The Matchup
Nelson's outlook is strong today because the Mets rank 22nd in slugging .394 against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Ryne Nelson under 2.5 earned runs at +110 with BetOnline
