3 Player Props June 29: Starting Pitchers Duel in Boston
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Thursday, June 29, 2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Shane Bieber starts for the Guardians today.
Bieber's last start might seem to indicate that he is in poor form, but this is not so.
His 2.23 xFIP (like ERA but factors out fielding and uses projected instead of actual home run rate) in his last start suggests that he performed very well individually.
But after giving up as many runs as he has in his past two starts, he's going to want to buckle down today.
Bieber's Arsenal
Bieber relies mostly on four different pitches that he throws between 12 and 34 percent of the time.
His fastball has a lot of spin and movement, although his cutter has even more spin.
He ably concentrates his slider and curveball along the lower borders of the strike zone.
Good location helps the latter two pitches be his most effective ones: his slider yields a .162 BA and his curveball yields a .196 BA.
Both pitches create an effective change of pace relative to his fastball.
History in Kansas City
In his career, Bieber is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in seven starts in Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium.
This ERA is inflated by two rather bad starts that he suffered in 2018.
Royals Lineup
Kansas City's lineup, already one of baseball's weakest, is suffering awful form.
The Royals have scored one run in each of their last three games.
Their outlook today is negative also because they match up poorly against Bieber.
They rank 29th with a .363 slugging rate against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Shane Bieber under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox
Thursday, June 29, 2023 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Who Starts for Miami?
Jesus Luzardo starts for the Marlins today.
Luzardo carries strong form into today's game.
On June 18, he allowed two runs in a rematch in Washington D.C.
Most recently, he shut out Pittsburgh and allowed two hits in seven innings.
Luzardo's Arsenal
Luzardo's pitching repertoire is characterized by strong velocity.
Most notably, his fastball averages 96.8 mph. His changeup averages 88.3 mph.
The latter creates a good change of pace relative to his fastball because of their velocity differential.
His slider, which averages 85.1 mph, achieves the same effect.
Also, he uses both his slider and changeup to change the batter's eye level in that he'll gladly elevate the fastball before burying his slider or changeup.
Regarding movement, particularly Luzardo's fastball and slider are unique.
The former has a strong amount of horizontal movement relative to the fastball that other pitchers throw.
Meanwhile, his slider distinguishes itself with its tightness.
With his arsenal, Luzardo does a great job of accruing strikeouts.
Batters tend to chase his pitches outside of the zone, although he is not afraid of throwing strikes.
Evidence for his strong command lies especially in the fact that he has not walked more than a batter in any of his last eight games.
Boston's Lineup
The Red Sox have generally been hitting the ball very poorly lately.
They've scored a combined total of 15 runs in their past seven games.
Only Justin Turner can claim to have much familiarity with Luzardo, yet Turner is 1-for-7 with two strikeouts against Luzardo.
Best Bet: Jesus Luzardo under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
Who Starts for Boston?
Boston starts Brayan Bello today.
For a long time, Bello has been pitching excellently -- his ERA is as high as it is because his first two starts of the season were poor.
But what he did in the first weeks of April is irrelevant to the here-and-now.
What is relevant is that he's allowed one run in both of his last two starts in which he lasted seven and 6.2 innings, respectively.
More extensively, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine out of his last ten starts.
In the one exception, he allowed three earned runs in six innings to a sizzling Tampa Bay team.
Bello's Pitching Arsenal
As heat maps show, Bello loves to mix up the locations of his pitches.
Bello concentrates his sinker and slider on opposite sides of the strike zone.
Moreover, he likes to elevate his fastball but bury his changeup.
He uses this variation in pitch location to change his batter's eye level.
This is one way in which he keeps batters off-balance.
Another is that his changeup creates a strong change of pace relative to his sinker and fastball in that his changeup averages about eight mph fewer than his sinker and fastball.
His sinker and velocity are, moreover, due to their velocity relatively difficult for batters to keep up with.
Miami's Lineup
In addition to Bello's consistency on the mound, Miami's outlook is negative tonight because of its matchup.
The Marlins rank 22nd in slugging .404 against Bello's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Brayan Bello under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Thursday, June 29, 2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
- Shane Bieber is primed to buckle down today
- Bieber has a strong history in Kansas City
- Bieber matches up superbly against the Royals' lineup
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Shane Bieber starts for the Guardians today.
Bieber's last start might seem to indicate that he is in poor form, but this is not so.
His 2.23 xFIP (like ERA but factors out fielding and uses projected instead of actual home run rate) in his last start suggests that he performed very well individually.
But after giving up as many runs as he has in his past two starts, he's going to want to buckle down today.
Bieber's Arsenal
Bieber relies mostly on four different pitches that he throws between 12 and 34 percent of the time.
His fastball has a lot of spin and movement, although his cutter has even more spin.
He ably concentrates his slider and curveball along the lower borders of the strike zone.
Good location helps the latter two pitches be his most effective ones: his slider yields a .162 BA and his curveball yields a .196 BA.
Both pitches create an effective change of pace relative to his fastball.
History in Kansas City
In his career, Bieber is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in seven starts in Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium.
This ERA is inflated by two rather bad starts that he suffered in 2018.
Royals Lineup
Kansas City's lineup, already one of baseball's weakest, is suffering awful form.
The Royals have scored one run in each of their last three games.
Their outlook today is negative also because they match up poorly against Bieber.
They rank 29th with a .363 slugging rate against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Shane Bieber under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox
Thursday, June 29, 2023 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
- Jesus Luzardo enjoys strong form
- Luzardo's pitching arsenal is characterized by strong velocity and effective pitch movement
- Boston has been hitting the ball terribly lately
Who Starts for Miami?
Jesus Luzardo starts for the Marlins today.
Luzardo carries strong form into today's game.
On June 18, he allowed two runs in a rematch in Washington D.C.
Most recently, he shut out Pittsburgh and allowed two hits in seven innings.
Luzardo's Arsenal
Luzardo's pitching repertoire is characterized by strong velocity.
Most notably, his fastball averages 96.8 mph. His changeup averages 88.3 mph.
The latter creates a good change of pace relative to his fastball because of their velocity differential.
His slider, which averages 85.1 mph, achieves the same effect.
Also, he uses both his slider and changeup to change the batter's eye level in that he'll gladly elevate the fastball before burying his slider or changeup.
Regarding movement, particularly Luzardo's fastball and slider are unique.
The former has a strong amount of horizontal movement relative to the fastball that other pitchers throw.
Meanwhile, his slider distinguishes itself with its tightness.
With his arsenal, Luzardo does a great job of accruing strikeouts.
Batters tend to chase his pitches outside of the zone, although he is not afraid of throwing strikes.
Evidence for his strong command lies especially in the fact that he has not walked more than a batter in any of his last eight games.
Boston's Lineup
The Red Sox have generally been hitting the ball very poorly lately.
They've scored a combined total of 15 runs in their past seven games.
Only Justin Turner can claim to have much familiarity with Luzardo, yet Turner is 1-for-7 with two strikeouts against Luzardo.
Best Bet: Jesus Luzardo under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
- Brayan Bello consistently limits his opponent's scoring output
- Bello's pitching arsenal is characterized by his variety of pitch location
- Miami hits Bello's pitches from righties poorly
Who Starts for Boston?
Boston starts Brayan Bello today.
For a long time, Bello has been pitching excellently -- his ERA is as high as it is because his first two starts of the season were poor.
But what he did in the first weeks of April is irrelevant to the here-and-now.
What is relevant is that he's allowed one run in both of his last two starts in which he lasted seven and 6.2 innings, respectively.
More extensively, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine out of his last ten starts.
In the one exception, he allowed three earned runs in six innings to a sizzling Tampa Bay team.
Bello's Pitching Arsenal
As heat maps show, Bello loves to mix up the locations of his pitches.
Bello concentrates his sinker and slider on opposite sides of the strike zone.
Moreover, he likes to elevate his fastball but bury his changeup.
He uses this variation in pitch location to change his batter's eye level.
This is one way in which he keeps batters off-balance.
Another is that his changeup creates a strong change of pace relative to his sinker and fastball in that his changeup averages about eight mph fewer than his sinker and fastball.
His sinker and velocity are, moreover, due to their velocity relatively difficult for batters to keep up with.
Miami's Lineup
In addition to Bello's consistency on the mound, Miami's outlook is negative tonight because of its matchup.
The Marlins rank 22nd in slugging .404 against Bello's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Brayan Bello under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
