Thursday Picks Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
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NFL Preseason Best Bets for August 21: The Giants Are Cruising on Offense

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers
Thursday, August 21, 2025 at 6 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium

Motivation


Motivation becomes a more significant factor in preseason games because preseason games do not count toward the regular season standings and therefore invite more complacency from players.

It will appear clear in this game that one team has the motivational edge. This team is Carolina.

Pittsburgh backers cite the extent to which Carolina has struggled in this preseason, but these struggles supply the main impetus for the Panthers' success tonight: they want to finish preseason on a strong note.

Last year, led by the same head coach, they entered the final preseason game with an 0-2 record. In those two losses, they scored a combined total of 15 points.

After those two games, they won their final preseason game while scoring 31 points. Expect a similar explosion from Carolina's offense tonight, reflecting its focus to create momentum for the regular season that will also be aided by more effective play-calling.

Pittsburgh's Vulnerable Pass Defense

When the Panthers exploded for 31 points in that preseason finale, they were led by quarterback Jack Plummer, who demonstrated his aptitude with 278 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Plummer can reproduce this success against a vulnerable Pittsburgh preseason defense.

This vulnerability should come as no to surprise to those who are familiar with the great decline that the Steelers have experienced on defense whenever TJ Watt is absent. The Steelers suddenly become much worse without him. In preseason play, they miss him and other key players, such as Cam Heyward.

Plummer needs a big game and will be aided by the return of wide receiver Jalen Coker against a Steelers defense that, after conceding 25 points to Jacksonville in their preseason opener, allowed Connor Bazelak and new Tampa Bay signing Teddy Bridgewater to have great games.

The Over

While I like Carolina as a home dog because of its motivational edge and its excellent promise on offense, I think the Steelers' offense will contribute to the "over."

Carolina's pass defense was uniquely terrible last year. Jaycee Horn was a rare bright spot, but he is expected to sit out tonight's game. So far this year, the Panthers allowed 30 points to the Browns largely due to Cleveland rookie Shedeur Sanders' play.

The Panthers did buckle down in their second preseason game by holding Houston to 20 points, with seven of those points coming from Houston's starting quarterback and starting wide receiver connection.

With the promising play of its quarterbacks and the success that its rush attack showed last week in defiance of preseason concerns about it, it makes sense to expect Pittsburgh to score around 17 points, which will easily send the game over the posted total.

Best Bet: Panthers +4.5 at -105 with BetOnline

Best Bet: Over 36 at -110 with BetOnline










New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
Thursday, August 21, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium

New York's High-Level Offense


The Giants offense is playing at a high level right now because it was built to succeed in preseason football.

Depth is a major factor conditioning outcomes in preseason play where so many backups see game action. The Giants score so many points because they have great depth at the quarterback position, with all of their quarterbacks enjoying meaningful starting experience plus the obviously talented rookie Jaxson Dart.

With these quarterbacks and their proven ability to put up big numbers, the Giants have scored 34 points against the Bills and 31 against the Jets.

It is easy to dismiss the Buffalo game because of Buffalo's secondary, but the Jets are formidable in their secondary and pass rush. In their other preseason game, they held the Packers to ten points, but they were no match for New York's offense.

New England's Limitations

The Patriots defense has not been tested in this preseason, negating any impressiveness that one might see characterizing the low point totals that they've allowed thus far.

So far, they've primarily seen these quarterbacks: Josh Johnson, Sam Hartman, and Max Brosmer.

They've allowed close to 20 points in a game thus far, and it stands to reason that New York with its collection of productive quarterbacks has the firepower to exceed 20 points against them.

Conversely, New England's preseason offense is led by Joshua Dobbs and Ben Wooldridge. It doesn't seem likely that starter Drake Maye will see the field much after the strenuous amount of work that he was dealt in practice this week.

The Patriots thriving on offense against Washington's defense is simply meaningless. Otherwise, they scored 20 points in Minnesota. Their quarterbacks have put together ho-hum performances, failing to display the level of productivity of their New York counterparts.

Best Way to Approach This Game

The Giants are strongly favored in this game. While I do think that it is likelier that the Giants cover the spread than that they don't, 6.5 feels like a lot of points especially for a preseason game.

Therefore, I recommend sticking the Giants moneyline in a parlay.

Since we are already investing in the Panthers and since many view it as a cardinal sin to wager on the same outcome twice, we can split a unit on the Panthers ATS and on the Panthers ATS & Giants moneyline parlay.

Parlay: Panthers +4.5 at -105 with BetOnline & Giants ML at -270 with BetOnline at +168 with BetOnline
 
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