MLB Bet or Fade for July 24: The Angels Are Home Again
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Thursday, July 24, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park
The Improved Reese Olson
You wouldn't know it from the start to his season, but since mid-April Detroit starter Reese Olson has utilized his arsenal to take a significant step forward in his young career.
While he relies most frequently on a serviceable sinker that rarely yields extra-base hits, he leans heavily on his changeup and slider.
With his changeup and slider, he puts away batters and induces whiffs at a high rate.
In particular, his changeup has grown more effective. Whereas it yielded a .344 slugging rate last year, batters this season are slugging .211 against it. Its tricky movement gives batters a tough time.
The improvement of his changeup constitutes a microcosm of his overall growth, which is evident in the fact that he has allowed all of nine earned runs in his last nine starts.
Olson & Tigers Relievers
Olson's outlook today is particularly strong against a Toronto team that bats and slugs .083 against him.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer are combined 2-for-19 when facing Olson.
With Detroit's top relievers fresh — including well-reputed Tommy Kahnle, who has gotten back on track, and Will Vest — the Blue Jays will struggle to score for the entire game.
Best Bet: Blue Jays Team Total Under 3.5 at +117 with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, July 24, 2025 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium
Struggling Yu Darvish
If you forget this season, then the Padres as underdogs with Yu Darvish starting for them might seem tempting.
But Darvish this year, in his return from an extended elbow injury that sidelined him until July 7, has remained very distant from his top form.
Darvish's stuff is not what it used to be, as evident in the decline in his strikeout rate. He is also struggling with his command, as he is walking almost five batters per nine innings.
In three starts, none of which has been successful for him, he has allowed nine earned runs in 13.1 innings.
Cardinals Batters
St. Louis' lineup is ready to pounce on Darvish because, in Darvish, they face a weaker version of a pitcher whom they already thrive against.
Collectively, they bat .303 and slug .530 with him on the mound.
Six different Cardinals batters slug at least .500 against him.
Sonny Weather in St. Louis
The Cardinals start Sonny Gray today, who is in a great spot because he is coming off a terrible outing.
Gray reliably bounces back: he has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in the five respective starts that followed an outing in which he conceded four or more earned runs.
In his bounce-back starts, he even flourished against a Cincinnati lineup that has a strong track record against him.
Even if Gray weren't in a bounce-back spot, he is due to experience statistical progression: his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 1.16 lower than his ERA.
This disparity is immense. He has suffered from an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that will correct itself.
Expect Gray to buckle down and, with the lead, to hand off the baton to a Cardinals bullpen that has its top relievers fresh and will secure their team's victory.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML at -132 with BetOnline
Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, July 24, 2025 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park
Houston, We Have Liftoff
The Astros face Luis Severino tonight.
If you look at Severino's performances against Houston this year, then you will gain confidence in him tonight because he yielded a low ERA in both starts.
However, this recent history must give one all the more confidence in Houston tonight.
First of all, Severino's FIP was significantly higher than his ERA in both of those starts, which indicates that he truly did not perform as well as it seems.
Second of all, Houston's lineup has built a strong track record against him.
Collectively, the Astros bat .295 and slug .474 against him.
Considering how fortunate Severino has been thus far against the Astros, how hard it is for a pitcher to do well three times in the same season against the same lineup, and how probable it is in general that Houston's batters will perform well against Severino, tonight is just the time for a strong offensive output from Houston.
The Summer of George
Jason Alexander is being called up to start for the Astros tonight.
He is tough for batters to hit with his particular throwing angle. His favorite pitch to throw is his sinker, which is one part of an effective repertoire that is designed to induce a lot of ground balls.
In Triple-A, he has been thriving. While his start to professional baseball was rocky, he most recently threw three shutout innings against the mighty Dodgers. He is clearly comfortable now on the professional level.
While Jason Alexander might not be as funny as the same-named fellow who plays George on Seinfeld, he is a much better pitcher.
Cold Athletics Batters
The A's are cold right now: they enter today's game having failed to exceed two runs in any of their last four games. Most recently, Patrick Corbin of all people locked down them.
With Houston's bullpen ranking 25 spots ahead of that of the A's, Houston is a solid full-game play because the Astros will have no problem exceeding two runs.
Expect the Astros, therefore, to extend their four-game winning streak.
Best Bet: Astros ML at -123 with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Thursday, July 24, 2025 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Logan Evans' Ongoing Decline
Seattle starts Logan Evans tonight.
Evans' ERA looks decent, but it belies a 4.88 FIP. With his FIP being 1.07 higher than his ERA, he is set to experience statistical regression.
In fact, he is already experiencing this regression: he yielded an ERA of 11.57 and 4.50 in his last two respective starts.
His outlook is poor against a Los Angeles lineup that ranks tenth with a .428 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
He will also suffer from the fact that he wants to rely on inducing fly balls. The Angels are at their best, with a .446 slugging rate, against fly ball-inducing pitchers.
Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Angels tonight.
Kikuchi overcame a rough patch to perform solidly in Philadelphia in his last start.
He is especially solid at home, where he yields a 1.98 ERA.
Cold Seattle, which has scored all of six runs in its last four games, would have a negative outlook tonight against Kikuchi even if it weren't struggling now: Seattle bats .215 and slugs .323 with him on the mound.
Given this starting pitcher matchup, the Angels will have no problem leading through five innings.
Best Bet: Angels First-Five -0.5 at +105 with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Thursday, July 24, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park
The Improved Reese Olson
You wouldn't know it from the start to his season, but since mid-April Detroit starter Reese Olson has utilized his arsenal to take a significant step forward in his young career.
While he relies most frequently on a serviceable sinker that rarely yields extra-base hits, he leans heavily on his changeup and slider.
With his changeup and slider, he puts away batters and induces whiffs at a high rate.
In particular, his changeup has grown more effective. Whereas it yielded a .344 slugging rate last year, batters this season are slugging .211 against it. Its tricky movement gives batters a tough time.
The improvement of his changeup constitutes a microcosm of his overall growth, which is evident in the fact that he has allowed all of nine earned runs in his last nine starts.
Olson & Tigers Relievers
Olson's outlook today is particularly strong against a Toronto team that bats and slugs .083 against him.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer are combined 2-for-19 when facing Olson.
With Detroit's top relievers fresh — including well-reputed Tommy Kahnle, who has gotten back on track, and Will Vest — the Blue Jays will struggle to score for the entire game.
Best Bet: Blue Jays Team Total Under 3.5 at +117 with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, July 24, 2025 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium
Struggling Yu Darvish
If you forget this season, then the Padres as underdogs with Yu Darvish starting for them might seem tempting.
But Darvish this year, in his return from an extended elbow injury that sidelined him until July 7, has remained very distant from his top form.
Darvish's stuff is not what it used to be, as evident in the decline in his strikeout rate. He is also struggling with his command, as he is walking almost five batters per nine innings.
In three starts, none of which has been successful for him, he has allowed nine earned runs in 13.1 innings.
Cardinals Batters
St. Louis' lineup is ready to pounce on Darvish because, in Darvish, they face a weaker version of a pitcher whom they already thrive against.
Collectively, they bat .303 and slug .530 with him on the mound.
Six different Cardinals batters slug at least .500 against him.
Sonny Weather in St. Louis
The Cardinals start Sonny Gray today, who is in a great spot because he is coming off a terrible outing.
Gray reliably bounces back: he has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in the five respective starts that followed an outing in which he conceded four or more earned runs.
In his bounce-back starts, he even flourished against a Cincinnati lineup that has a strong track record against him.
Even if Gray weren't in a bounce-back spot, he is due to experience statistical progression: his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 1.16 lower than his ERA.
This disparity is immense. He has suffered from an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that will correct itself.
Expect Gray to buckle down and, with the lead, to hand off the baton to a Cardinals bullpen that has its top relievers fresh and will secure their team's victory.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML at -132 with BetOnline
Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, July 24, 2025 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park
Houston, We Have Liftoff
The Astros face Luis Severino tonight.
If you look at Severino's performances against Houston this year, then you will gain confidence in him tonight because he yielded a low ERA in both starts.
However, this recent history must give one all the more confidence in Houston tonight.
First of all, Severino's FIP was significantly higher than his ERA in both of those starts, which indicates that he truly did not perform as well as it seems.
Second of all, Houston's lineup has built a strong track record against him.
Collectively, the Astros bat .295 and slug .474 against him.
Considering how fortunate Severino has been thus far against the Astros, how hard it is for a pitcher to do well three times in the same season against the same lineup, and how probable it is in general that Houston's batters will perform well against Severino, tonight is just the time for a strong offensive output from Houston.
The Summer of George
Jason Alexander is being called up to start for the Astros tonight.
He is tough for batters to hit with his particular throwing angle. His favorite pitch to throw is his sinker, which is one part of an effective repertoire that is designed to induce a lot of ground balls.
In Triple-A, he has been thriving. While his start to professional baseball was rocky, he most recently threw three shutout innings against the mighty Dodgers. He is clearly comfortable now on the professional level.
While Jason Alexander might not be as funny as the same-named fellow who plays George on Seinfeld, he is a much better pitcher.
Cold Athletics Batters
The A's are cold right now: they enter today's game having failed to exceed two runs in any of their last four games. Most recently, Patrick Corbin of all people locked down them.
With Houston's bullpen ranking 25 spots ahead of that of the A's, Houston is a solid full-game play because the Astros will have no problem exceeding two runs.
Expect the Astros, therefore, to extend their four-game winning streak.
Best Bet: Astros ML at -123 with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Thursday, July 24, 2025 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Logan Evans' Ongoing Decline
Seattle starts Logan Evans tonight.
Evans' ERA looks decent, but it belies a 4.88 FIP. With his FIP being 1.07 higher than his ERA, he is set to experience statistical regression.
In fact, he is already experiencing this regression: he yielded an ERA of 11.57 and 4.50 in his last two respective starts.
His outlook is poor against a Los Angeles lineup that ranks tenth with a .428 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
He will also suffer from the fact that he wants to rely on inducing fly balls. The Angels are at their best, with a .446 slugging rate, against fly ball-inducing pitchers.
Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Angels tonight.
Kikuchi overcame a rough patch to perform solidly in Philadelphia in his last start.
He is especially solid at home, where he yields a 1.98 ERA.
Cold Seattle, which has scored all of six runs in its last four games, would have a negative outlook tonight against Kikuchi even if it weren't struggling now: Seattle bats .215 and slugs .323 with him on the mound.
Given this starting pitcher matchup, the Angels will have no problem leading through five innings.
Best Bet: Angels First-Five -0.5 at +105 with BetOnline
