MLB Bet or Fade for June 26: Let's Swim With the Fish
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Thursday, June 26, 2025 at 1:10 p.m.ET at Progressive Field
Trust Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman starts for Toronto today.
Bettors who want to invest in Cleveland are inclined to mention Gausman's last start.
It is true: Gausman pitched terribly. But if betting were as simple as expecting a pitcher's last start to repeat itself then everybody would be a millionaire.
Some pitchers do embark on cold streaks, but Gausman is the type of pitcher who bounces back strongly from a terrible outing.
Gausman has allowed a combined total of zero runs in the two starts, totaling 13 innings, that respectively followed one in which he yielded six earned runs. In those two starts, he locked down the Padres and Guardians, respectively.
Gausman in Cleveland
When Gausman locked down Cleveland, he pitched in Toronto.
It is easy to dismiss that start because it took place in Gausman's home venue, but Cleveland is another home for Gausman.
In 22 career innings in Cleveland, Gausman boasts a 1.64 ERA.
He loves facing Guardians batters in general. Collectively, they own a .386 slugging rate, with five more strikeouts than hits, against him.
Outlook for Cleveland's Starter
Tanner Bibee starts for Cleveland today.
His outlook is negative against a Toronto lineup that bats .343 and slugs .600 against him.
Five different Blue Jays batters slug .556 or better against him.
Guys like George Springer, who is 5-for-9 with a home run in his last two games, will help ensure that Toronto leads through five innings.
Best Bet: Blue Jays First-Five ML at -102 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Thursday, June 26, 2025 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium
The Total
The first thing that sticks out to me about this game is the high total.
As of this morning, the over/under lies at 10.
This total is absolutely insane for a Royals game. Kansas City ranks second-to-last in runs per game. It is the only team to average fewer than three runs per home game.
Oddsmakers have the total so high because the wind is blowing out. But the wind does not justify the high total.
Keeping the Ball on the Ground
Shane Baz starts for Tampa Bay today.
No pitcher wants his fly balls to carry out of the ballpark. This is something that the wind can accomplish, obviously, but Baz is not the type of pitcher who needs to worry about wind, because he is very much a ground ball-inducing pitcher, as evident in his high ground ball rate..
His outlook today is particularly strong against a Kansas City lineup that ranks 24th with a .378 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
When the Royals faced Baz last time, they were enjoying great team form.
This is a different Kansas City team today, though. During its ongoing four-game losing streak, KC has scored a combined total of four runs.
Takeaway
Tampa Bay has the higher-ranked bullpen, the superior team form, and, with its lineup ranking sixth with a .434 slugging rate against Royals starter Michael Lorenzen, the starting pitcher edge.
The Rays thus make for a strong full-game play. Given the high full-game total, we also have a unique team total betting opportunity here.
Best Bet: Rays ML at -125 with BetOnline & Royals Team Total Under 4.5 Runs at -110 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Thursday, June 25, 2025 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field
Sizzling Dodgers
The Dodgers are playing really well right now, and historically bad Colorado is the last team to stop them.
During their ongoing three-game win streak, the Dodgers run-line is 3-0. They beat their last three opponents by a combined total of 15 runs.
They are 2-0 in this series against Colorado after beating the Rockies 9-7 — in a game that was really decided early — and 8-1.
Soft Test
Los Angeles had no problem getting six runs off Colorado starter German Marquez, who had strongly improved his play.
The Dodgers now face Austin Gomber with his 8.38 ERA.
Dodgers batters love facing Gomber: collectively, they bat .287 and slug .532 against him.
Five different Los Angeles batters slug .750 or better with him on the mound.
Dodgers' Pitching
Clayton Kershaw, today's starter for the Dodgers, is continuing to succeed.
For so long, folks have spun the hot take that he is washed-up.
But the future Hall-of-Famer has most recently allowed a combined total of three runs in his last three starts.
His outlook against Colorado batters is always strong: they bat .200 and slug .283 against him, collectively.
Because the Dodgers' pitching staff is depleted, which is reflected in the overuse and poor ERA of its bullpen, the best move is to stick to a first-five play, although the Dodgers should still easily win the game.
Parlay Leg 1: Dodgers First-Five ML at -260 with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Thursday, June 25, 2025 at 3:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park
Get to Know Janson Junk
Janson Junk is creating a new narrative for himself: he is not only a reliable reliever, but he is also effective as a starting pitcher.
He has great command and great stuff. He avoids walks, throws a lot of strikes, and still limits the hits and runs of opposing lineups.
In his last two outings, totaling 10.2 innings, he has allowed a combined total of one run. In his one start, he limited held the Braves to one run in five innings.
Miami's Advantages
Junk's outlook is particularly strong today because matches up excellently against the Giants. They rank 24th with a .376 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
In this series, the Marlins' bullpen has allowed a combined total of two runs in nine innings. It is a major reason why they lead the series 2-0 and why they perpetuate the woes of a San Francisco team that is wrongly favored in part because it has lost seven of its last ten games.
Superior team form — the Marlins have won three in a row — and the freshness of their best relievers help justify a full-game investment.
San Francisco starter Hayden Birdsong lacks Junk's strong form. Birdsong has allowed a combined total of seven earned runs in his last two starts. He is contributing to the changing narrative on the Giants' season.
With the Marlins dogged so heavily, we can take the extra run by playing them on the run-line and parlay them with the Dodgers.
Parlay Leg 2: Marlins +1.5 at -140 with BetOnline
Parlay: Dodgers First-Five ML (-260) & Marlins RL (-140) at +137 with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Thursday, June 26, 2025 at 1:10 p.m.ET at Progressive Field
Trust Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman starts for Toronto today.
Bettors who want to invest in Cleveland are inclined to mention Gausman's last start.
It is true: Gausman pitched terribly. But if betting were as simple as expecting a pitcher's last start to repeat itself then everybody would be a millionaire.
Some pitchers do embark on cold streaks, but Gausman is the type of pitcher who bounces back strongly from a terrible outing.
Gausman has allowed a combined total of zero runs in the two starts, totaling 13 innings, that respectively followed one in which he yielded six earned runs. In those two starts, he locked down the Padres and Guardians, respectively.
Gausman in Cleveland
When Gausman locked down Cleveland, he pitched in Toronto.
It is easy to dismiss that start because it took place in Gausman's home venue, but Cleveland is another home for Gausman.
In 22 career innings in Cleveland, Gausman boasts a 1.64 ERA.
He loves facing Guardians batters in general. Collectively, they own a .386 slugging rate, with five more strikeouts than hits, against him.
Outlook for Cleveland's Starter
Tanner Bibee starts for Cleveland today.
His outlook is negative against a Toronto lineup that bats .343 and slugs .600 against him.
Five different Blue Jays batters slug .556 or better against him.
Guys like George Springer, who is 5-for-9 with a home run in his last two games, will help ensure that Toronto leads through five innings.
Best Bet: Blue Jays First-Five ML at -102 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Thursday, June 26, 2025 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium
The Total
The first thing that sticks out to me about this game is the high total.
As of this morning, the over/under lies at 10.
This total is absolutely insane for a Royals game. Kansas City ranks second-to-last in runs per game. It is the only team to average fewer than three runs per home game.
Oddsmakers have the total so high because the wind is blowing out. But the wind does not justify the high total.
Keeping the Ball on the Ground
Shane Baz starts for Tampa Bay today.
No pitcher wants his fly balls to carry out of the ballpark. This is something that the wind can accomplish, obviously, but Baz is not the type of pitcher who needs to worry about wind, because he is very much a ground ball-inducing pitcher, as evident in his high ground ball rate..
His outlook today is particularly strong against a Kansas City lineup that ranks 24th with a .378 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
When the Royals faced Baz last time, they were enjoying great team form.
This is a different Kansas City team today, though. During its ongoing four-game losing streak, KC has scored a combined total of four runs.
Takeaway
Tampa Bay has the higher-ranked bullpen, the superior team form, and, with its lineup ranking sixth with a .434 slugging rate against Royals starter Michael Lorenzen, the starting pitcher edge.
The Rays thus make for a strong full-game play. Given the high full-game total, we also have a unique team total betting opportunity here.
Best Bet: Rays ML at -125 with BetOnline & Royals Team Total Under 4.5 Runs at -110 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Thursday, June 25, 2025 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field
Sizzling Dodgers
The Dodgers are playing really well right now, and historically bad Colorado is the last team to stop them.
During their ongoing three-game win streak, the Dodgers run-line is 3-0. They beat their last three opponents by a combined total of 15 runs.
They are 2-0 in this series against Colorado after beating the Rockies 9-7 — in a game that was really decided early — and 8-1.
Soft Test
Los Angeles had no problem getting six runs off Colorado starter German Marquez, who had strongly improved his play.
The Dodgers now face Austin Gomber with his 8.38 ERA.
Dodgers batters love facing Gomber: collectively, they bat .287 and slug .532 against him.
Five different Los Angeles batters slug .750 or better with him on the mound.
Dodgers' Pitching
Clayton Kershaw, today's starter for the Dodgers, is continuing to succeed.
For so long, folks have spun the hot take that he is washed-up.
But the future Hall-of-Famer has most recently allowed a combined total of three runs in his last three starts.
His outlook against Colorado batters is always strong: they bat .200 and slug .283 against him, collectively.
Because the Dodgers' pitching staff is depleted, which is reflected in the overuse and poor ERA of its bullpen, the best move is to stick to a first-five play, although the Dodgers should still easily win the game.
Parlay Leg 1: Dodgers First-Five ML at -260 with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Thursday, June 25, 2025 at 3:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park
Get to Know Janson Junk
Janson Junk is creating a new narrative for himself: he is not only a reliable reliever, but he is also effective as a starting pitcher.
He has great command and great stuff. He avoids walks, throws a lot of strikes, and still limits the hits and runs of opposing lineups.
In his last two outings, totaling 10.2 innings, he has allowed a combined total of one run. In his one start, he limited held the Braves to one run in five innings.
Miami's Advantages
Junk's outlook is particularly strong today because matches up excellently against the Giants. They rank 24th with a .376 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
In this series, the Marlins' bullpen has allowed a combined total of two runs in nine innings. It is a major reason why they lead the series 2-0 and why they perpetuate the woes of a San Francisco team that is wrongly favored in part because it has lost seven of its last ten games.
Superior team form — the Marlins have won three in a row — and the freshness of their best relievers help justify a full-game investment.
San Francisco starter Hayden Birdsong lacks Junk's strong form. Birdsong has allowed a combined total of seven earned runs in his last two starts. He is contributing to the changing narrative on the Giants' season.
With the Marlins dogged so heavily, we can take the extra run by playing them on the run-line and parlay them with the Dodgers.
Parlay Leg 2: Marlins +1.5 at -140 with BetOnline
Parlay: Dodgers First-Five ML (-260) & Marlins RL (-140) at +137 with BetOnline
