MLB Best Bets for April 3: Success Is Colored Red Today
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Target Field
Houston's Starter
Hunter Brown starts for the Astros today.
Oddsmakers have yet to fully appreciate how good Brown is.
To be fair, it took some time for Brown to find success last year. His ERA in March/April was 9.78.
As the season advanced, he improved greatly, achieving a 2.26 ERA in the second half of the season.
He did a much better job of limiting walks and home runs. Batters in general struggled more to make good contact with his pitches. Much of his success owes to his addition of a sinker to his repertoire.
Currently, he is enjoying a much stronger start to this season that reflects how greatly he improved last year.
Carrying his success later last season into this season, he owns a 3.00 ERA already.
Matchup Details
Brown's outlook tonight is particularly strong because he matches up well against Minnesota's batters.
He throws a fastball, changeup, knuckle curve, sinker, cutter, and slider.
Minnesota ranks 27th with a .280 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Minnesota's Starter
Joe Ryan starts for the Twins tonight.
Ryan's outlook tonight is negative because Astros batters have constructed a strong track record against him.
Four different ones who have accumulated at least six at-bats against him slug at least .600.
Six slug at least .500 in at least three at-bats against him.
Overall, Houston hitters bat .273 and slug .532 in 77 combined at-bats facing Ryan.
Jose Altuve has had a strong start to the season. Yordan Alvarez is gaining steam after going 2-for-4 yesterday. This is a talented lineup that is primed to secure its starting pitcher, who owns a great matchup advantage, a lead through five innings.
Best Bet: Astros First-Half ML at +100 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium
Arizona's Starter
Merrill Kelly starts for the Diamondback tonight.
While Kelly walked too many batters in his last start, there is every reason to believe that his command will improve tonight.
He has demonstrated great command throughout his career, as evident in his career-long low walk rate. More recently, he showed great command throughout Spring Training.
Perhaps he had some butterflies for his first start of the year, but in any case he has created countless instances where his walk rate plummeted in a start that followed one in which he walked a lot of batters.
New York's Starter
Carlos Carrasco starts for the Yankees.
Carrasco is another pitcher who is primed to bounce back after a rough first start.
Obviously, if pitchers were to pitch in line with how they pitched in their previous start, then everybody would always win their bets.
We should expect Carrasco, in particular, to improve tonight given the promise that he showed in Spring Training where he yielded a 1.69 ERA.
Matchup Specifics
Primarily, both starters have a great outlook tonight because they have a strong history against the batters that they'll face.
Arizona bats .224 and slugs .388 in 67 combined at-bats against Carrasco.
New York hits .180 and slugs .348 in 89 combined at-bats against Kelly.
Important hitters Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr., for example, are combined 2-for-17 against the respective starters whom they'll face tonight.
The total shows way too much respect for both offenses, especially with the Yankees cooling off after their ridiculous performances against the Brewers.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 5.5 at -115 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field
Cincinnati's Starter
Nick Lodolo starts for the Reds tonight.
Lodolo allowed two earned runs in six innings in his last start against the Giants.
He is thus continuing his tendency to start his season strong.
Lodolo vs. Brewers Batters
Matchup details indicate that Lodolo owns a great outlook tonight.
A lefty, he throws a sinker, four-seam fastball, changeup, and curveball.
Milwaukee's batters slug .292 against these pitches from lefties.
Milwaukee's Starter
Nestor Cortes starts for the Brewers tonight.
Relative to his last start, he'll have to improve tremendously if he wants to keep his team competitive this time.
Most recently, he allowed eight earned runs in two innings against the Yankees.
Pitching in Yankee Stadium was likely tough for him since he had been a Yankee.
Extra emotional situations are apparently tough for him to handle.
Tonight doesn’t get easier for him, as he makes his first home start in a new uniform.
He struggled in his first (and only) start as a Mariner, in his first start as a Yankee, and in his first home start as a Yankee.
One must expect him to struggle again tonight, unlike Lodolo.
Best Bet: Reds First-Half Run-Line at +130 with BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Target Field
Houston's Starter
Hunter Brown starts for the Astros today.
Oddsmakers have yet to fully appreciate how good Brown is.
To be fair, it took some time for Brown to find success last year. His ERA in March/April was 9.78.
As the season advanced, he improved greatly, achieving a 2.26 ERA in the second half of the season.
He did a much better job of limiting walks and home runs. Batters in general struggled more to make good contact with his pitches. Much of his success owes to his addition of a sinker to his repertoire.
Currently, he is enjoying a much stronger start to this season that reflects how greatly he improved last year.
Carrying his success later last season into this season, he owns a 3.00 ERA already.
Matchup Details
Brown's outlook tonight is particularly strong because he matches up well against Minnesota's batters.
He throws a fastball, changeup, knuckle curve, sinker, cutter, and slider.
Minnesota ranks 27th with a .280 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Minnesota's Starter
Joe Ryan starts for the Twins tonight.
Ryan's outlook tonight is negative because Astros batters have constructed a strong track record against him.
Four different ones who have accumulated at least six at-bats against him slug at least .600.
Six slug at least .500 in at least three at-bats against him.
Overall, Houston hitters bat .273 and slug .532 in 77 combined at-bats facing Ryan.
Jose Altuve has had a strong start to the season. Yordan Alvarez is gaining steam after going 2-for-4 yesterday. This is a talented lineup that is primed to secure its starting pitcher, who owns a great matchup advantage, a lead through five innings.
Best Bet: Astros First-Half ML at +100 with Bovada
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium
Arizona's Starter
Merrill Kelly starts for the Diamondback tonight.
While Kelly walked too many batters in his last start, there is every reason to believe that his command will improve tonight.
He has demonstrated great command throughout his career, as evident in his career-long low walk rate. More recently, he showed great command throughout Spring Training.
Perhaps he had some butterflies for his first start of the year, but in any case he has created countless instances where his walk rate plummeted in a start that followed one in which he walked a lot of batters.
New York's Starter
Carlos Carrasco starts for the Yankees.
Carrasco is another pitcher who is primed to bounce back after a rough first start.
Obviously, if pitchers were to pitch in line with how they pitched in their previous start, then everybody would always win their bets.
We should expect Carrasco, in particular, to improve tonight given the promise that he showed in Spring Training where he yielded a 1.69 ERA.
Matchup Specifics
Primarily, both starters have a great outlook tonight because they have a strong history against the batters that they'll face.
Arizona bats .224 and slugs .388 in 67 combined at-bats against Carrasco.
New York hits .180 and slugs .348 in 89 combined at-bats against Kelly.
Important hitters Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr., for example, are combined 2-for-17 against the respective starters whom they'll face tonight.
The total shows way too much respect for both offenses, especially with the Yankees cooling off after their ridiculous performances against the Brewers.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 5.5 at -115 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field
Cincinnati's Starter
Nick Lodolo starts for the Reds tonight.
Lodolo allowed two earned runs in six innings in his last start against the Giants.
He is thus continuing his tendency to start his season strong.
Lodolo vs. Brewers Batters
Matchup details indicate that Lodolo owns a great outlook tonight.
A lefty, he throws a sinker, four-seam fastball, changeup, and curveball.
Milwaukee's batters slug .292 against these pitches from lefties.
Milwaukee's Starter
Nestor Cortes starts for the Brewers tonight.
Relative to his last start, he'll have to improve tremendously if he wants to keep his team competitive this time.
Most recently, he allowed eight earned runs in two innings against the Yankees.
Pitching in Yankee Stadium was likely tough for him since he had been a Yankee.
Extra emotional situations are apparently tough for him to handle.
Tonight doesn’t get easier for him, as he makes his first home start in a new uniform.
He struggled in his first (and only) start as a Mariner, in his first start as a Yankee, and in his first home start as a Yankee.
One must expect him to struggle again tonight, unlike Lodolo.
Best Bet: Reds First-Half Run-Line at +130 with BetOnline
