NBA Best Bets for March 13: No Defense in California Tonight
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
The Angle
This is a rare opportunity to back a very good Lakers team as a 6.5-point underdog.
The opportunity is a good one because the spread signifies a major misunderstanding about why the Lakers have become one of the NBA's top teams.
While the Lakers will miss some players, they are still well-coached.
Since the start of February, when Anthony Davis was traded to Dallas, their defense ranks number two in defensive rating.
Their defense relied heavily on Davis. With Davis gone, Lakers defenders stepped up, investing more effort and trusting more in their coach.
Protecting The Basket
In particular, they do a stronger job of protecting the basket, allowing the tenth-fewest field goal makes within five feet of the basket and the tenth-lowest field goal percentage in this space.
With length, swarm tactics, and pack-the-paint principles, the Lakers have done a great job even against elite scorers like inside scoring machine Nikola Jokic.
Their weakness has been quick guards, whom their slower defenders struggle to contain. Dallas guard Kyrie Irving, for example, is notoriously shifty and, accordingly, accumulated 35 points against the Lakers.
Brooklyn guard Keon Johnson is characteristically very quick. He likewise had a great game against Los Angeles.
The Lakers do not rank better than tenth at protecting the space near the rim, because of this particular weakness, but it's not one that Milwaukee is built to exploit.
Milwaukee is known for being old and slow. Its one good guard, the 34-year-old Damian Lillard, is not known for his quickness. The Lakers will build a wall around the basket to contain Giannis.
Point Total
Both Giannis and Lillard average at least 9.9 more points than any of their teammates, so the Lakers' defense will be solid enough for the cover by limiting them.
The Lakers enter tonight's game having allowed 99 points (in regulation) to the Knicks, 111 points to Boston, and 111 points to a Brooklyn team that had an anomalously great shooting performance, making 18 threes, and featured a quick guard.
I'm not expecting Milwaukee to reach 110 points, but we're in good shape even if the Bucks were to score 115. They allowed at least 111 or more points in six of their last seven games with the one exception coming against the Mavericks without Kyrie.
The Lakers can count on bounce-back efforts from superstar Luka Doncic and efficient shooter Austin Reaves. Gabe Vincent and Dalton Knecht have been stepping up. They just withstood a poor showing from Doncic to score 108 points against a Brooklyn defense that has been playing really well, most recently holding Cleveland's top-ranked offense to 109 points.
Best Bet: Lakers +6.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center
Key Trend
Orlando's offense is known for being very bad, but it's not so bad, because it doesn't put together sufficiently solid performances.
The Magic are so bad because they lay an egg sometimes.
After scoring 82 points against Cleveland on February 27, they scored 115 points against Golden State in their next game.
More recently, they scored all of 102 points against Toronto before scoring 113 points against the same team two days later.
When they fail to reach 105 points, they reliably exceed 110 points in their following game, with one other recent example being Denver-San Antonio (80 points against Denver and then 112 points against San Antonio).
Forwards Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are excellent scorers for the Magic, but their supporting cast can struggle. But you can count on their supporting cast after they lay an egg.
Orlando's Great Defense
Whereas the Magic will score over 110 points by taking advantage of their awesome spot — facing the NBA's worst defense, as measured by defensive rating, will surely also help! — the
Pelicans will struggle to score.
New Orleans lacks efficient three-point shooters and relies, instead, on scoring at the basket.
But Orlando is one of the best teams at limiting field goals within five feet of the basket.
Simple Matchup Factor
But we also don't even have to get that deep.
New Orleans regularly gets blown out by teams that are much better on defense than they are on offense because those teams defend well against the Pelicans but also score a lot of points against what is the weakest defense.
Hence, the Rockets beat the Pelicans in all four of their meetings by at least twelve points. The Magic beat the Pelicans 115-88 in their one meeting this year.
Best Bet: Magic -2 at -107 with BetOnline
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Chase Center
The Matchup
These two teams are made for an "over" when they play each other.
Sacramento, on defense, prioritizes protecting the basket.
Conversely, the Kings rank 28th at limiting opposing three-point makes.
Golden State shares Sacramento's emphasis on protecting the basket, although the Warriors also do a good job of protecting the perimeter.
The Warriors' weakness is protecting those spaces in between the basket and the three-point line. They allow the most field goals per game five-to-nine feet away from the basket, for example.
Both offenses have a great outlook because the Warriors, led by sharpshooter Steph Curry, are dedicated to shooting threes. The Kings, led by mid-range maestro DeMar DeRozan, love to attack those spaces in between the basket and the three-point line.
Best Bet: Over 233 at -112 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
The Angle
This is a rare opportunity to back a very good Lakers team as a 6.5-point underdog.
The opportunity is a good one because the spread signifies a major misunderstanding about why the Lakers have become one of the NBA's top teams.
While the Lakers will miss some players, they are still well-coached.
Since the start of February, when Anthony Davis was traded to Dallas, their defense ranks number two in defensive rating.
Their defense relied heavily on Davis. With Davis gone, Lakers defenders stepped up, investing more effort and trusting more in their coach.
Protecting The Basket
In particular, they do a stronger job of protecting the basket, allowing the tenth-fewest field goal makes within five feet of the basket and the tenth-lowest field goal percentage in this space.
With length, swarm tactics, and pack-the-paint principles, the Lakers have done a great job even against elite scorers like inside scoring machine Nikola Jokic.
Their weakness has been quick guards, whom their slower defenders struggle to contain. Dallas guard Kyrie Irving, for example, is notoriously shifty and, accordingly, accumulated 35 points against the Lakers.
Brooklyn guard Keon Johnson is characteristically very quick. He likewise had a great game against Los Angeles.
The Lakers do not rank better than tenth at protecting the space near the rim, because of this particular weakness, but it's not one that Milwaukee is built to exploit.
Milwaukee is known for being old and slow. Its one good guard, the 34-year-old Damian Lillard, is not known for his quickness. The Lakers will build a wall around the basket to contain Giannis.
Point Total
Both Giannis and Lillard average at least 9.9 more points than any of their teammates, so the Lakers' defense will be solid enough for the cover by limiting them.
The Lakers enter tonight's game having allowed 99 points (in regulation) to the Knicks, 111 points to Boston, and 111 points to a Brooklyn team that had an anomalously great shooting performance, making 18 threes, and featured a quick guard.
I'm not expecting Milwaukee to reach 110 points, but we're in good shape even if the Bucks were to score 115. They allowed at least 111 or more points in six of their last seven games with the one exception coming against the Mavericks without Kyrie.
The Lakers can count on bounce-back efforts from superstar Luka Doncic and efficient shooter Austin Reaves. Gabe Vincent and Dalton Knecht have been stepping up. They just withstood a poor showing from Doncic to score 108 points against a Brooklyn defense that has been playing really well, most recently holding Cleveland's top-ranked offense to 109 points.
Best Bet: Lakers +6.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center
Key Trend
Orlando's offense is known for being very bad, but it's not so bad, because it doesn't put together sufficiently solid performances.
The Magic are so bad because they lay an egg sometimes.
After scoring 82 points against Cleveland on February 27, they scored 115 points against Golden State in their next game.
More recently, they scored all of 102 points against Toronto before scoring 113 points against the same team two days later.
When they fail to reach 105 points, they reliably exceed 110 points in their following game, with one other recent example being Denver-San Antonio (80 points against Denver and then 112 points against San Antonio).
Forwards Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are excellent scorers for the Magic, but their supporting cast can struggle. But you can count on their supporting cast after they lay an egg.
Orlando's Great Defense
Whereas the Magic will score over 110 points by taking advantage of their awesome spot — facing the NBA's worst defense, as measured by defensive rating, will surely also help! — the
Pelicans will struggle to score.
New Orleans lacks efficient three-point shooters and relies, instead, on scoring at the basket.
But Orlando is one of the best teams at limiting field goals within five feet of the basket.
Simple Matchup Factor
But we also don't even have to get that deep.
New Orleans regularly gets blown out by teams that are much better on defense than they are on offense because those teams defend well against the Pelicans but also score a lot of points against what is the weakest defense.
Hence, the Rockets beat the Pelicans in all four of their meetings by at least twelve points. The Magic beat the Pelicans 115-88 in their one meeting this year.
Best Bet: Magic -2 at -107 with BetOnline
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Chase Center
The Matchup
These two teams are made for an "over" when they play each other.
Sacramento, on defense, prioritizes protecting the basket.
Conversely, the Kings rank 28th at limiting opposing three-point makes.
Golden State shares Sacramento's emphasis on protecting the basket, although the Warriors also do a good job of protecting the perimeter.
The Warriors' weakness is protecting those spaces in between the basket and the three-point line. They allow the most field goals per game five-to-nine feet away from the basket, for example.
Both offenses have a great outlook because the Warriors, led by sharpshooter Steph Curry, are dedicated to shooting threes. The Kings, led by mid-range maestro DeMar DeRozan, love to attack those spaces in between the basket and the three-point line.
Best Bet: Over 233 at -112 with BetOnline
