NBA Best Bets for February 27: The Pelicans Love Attacking the Basket
Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando Magic
Thursday, February 27, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Orlando's Perimeter Defense
The Magic certainly have a great defense overall, ranking second in defensive rating, but they are at their best when guarding the perimeter.
The best beats the best. It's one thing for a perimeter defense to handle weak three-point shooting teams.
But Orlando has had great success against the defending champs, Boston, who by a clear margin rank number one in three-pointers made.
In Orlando, the Magic beat Boston 108-104, holding the latter to 8-of-33 shooting from behind the arc.
Despite the impressive number of good shooters that Boston boasts, Orlando was able to bother them by applying strong on-ball pressure and achieving hard close-outs.
On defense, the Magic are great at funneling the ball into the interior, where their rim protector Goga Bitadze supports a defense that is one of the best at limiting points around the basket.
While the Magic "only" rank fifth at limiting opposing field goals made within five feet of the basket, they rank number one at limiting opposing three-pointers made.
More deeply, they allow 4.1 fewer three-point attempts than any other team, are second-best at limiting opposing open three-point attempts, and are the best at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Why This Matters
The excellence of Orlando's perimeter defense makes it a great home dog in this game against the Warriors.
Golden State relies heavily on succeeding from behind the arc.
The Warriors attempt the third-most three-pointers. When a defense takes away the three-ball from them, then they lack options because they are super inefficient inside the arc — they rank 25th in two-point field goal percentage.
Orlando's Offense Will Bounce Back
The Magic were completely off in their last game. They converted 14.3 percent of their wide-open three-point attempts.
One has to expect them to bounce back at home where they had scored at least 102 points in six straight games before their Tuesday clunker.
During this six-game span, they scored over 105 points four times and accumulated as many as 121 points.
105 points feels like an extremely reasonable ask for an offense whose versatile scoring duo Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner both reliably accumulate over 20 points even against tough interior defenses like Memphis'.
One has to, moreover, expect Orlando's shooters to make more wide-open shots.
Takeaway
On February 3, the Magic stayed within five points of Golden State, scoring 99 points with bad shooting on the road. At home, Orlando's offense is better, while its defense will continue to benefit from its matchup edge.
I'm seeing a 105-101 win for the Magic here.
Best Bet: Magic +5.5 at -110 with BetOnline
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns
Thursday, February 27, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET at Footprint Center
Phoenix's Rim Protection
Phoenix's defense has struggled in general, allowing at least 119 points in all eleven February games.
One type of offense against which the Suns have struggled is one that prioritizes attacking the basket.
Most recently, the Suns gave up 151 points (including overtime) to a Memphis offense that attempts the tenth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Two games ago, they gave up 127 points to a lowly Toronto team that attempts the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
They lack rim-protecting talent. Their starting center Nick Richards, for example, can hardly be called a rim protector.
He is a low-IQ defender who will frequently be out of position whom offenses like to pick on because he does a poor job of limiting the efficiency of opposing shot-takers at the rim. His awful defensive rating substantiates such observations of his deleterious tendencies.
New Orleans Loves to Attack Inside
New Orleans has big and strong athletes with which to take advantage of Phoenix's deficient rim-protecting talent, in addition to dominating on the glass.
Look out especially for Zion Williamson, who in February is averaging 25.1 points per game and converting 60.5 percent of his field goals. He is an athletic monster who is one player whom Phoenix's defense will fail to limit.
Led by Zion, the Pelicans attempt the ninth-most field goals within five feet of the basket, where they'll thrive with their collection of rim-attackers.
Phoenix's Offense Will Decline
Phoenix's offense is in a major down spot after its incredible performance on Tuesday where it scored 148 points (including overtime), converting an insane 21 of 37 three-point attempts.
The Suns regularly fall back to earth after a one-game explosion, most recently scoring 108 in a blowout loss at Portland after amassing 130 points against Golden State and scoring 105 in a blowout loss at home against Denver after accumulating 135 (including overtime) against the Jazz.
New Orleans' improving defense has, in its last three games, allowed 111 points at Dallas, 96 against San Antonio, and 103 in the rematch against San Antonio.
Takeaway
With Phoenix's defense being so vulnerable, New Orleans so well-built to exploit it, and the Pelicans' defense playing this well, the spread feels way off.
Best Bet: Pelicans +7.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando Magic
Thursday, February 27, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Orlando's Perimeter Defense
The Magic certainly have a great defense overall, ranking second in defensive rating, but they are at their best when guarding the perimeter.
The best beats the best. It's one thing for a perimeter defense to handle weak three-point shooting teams.
But Orlando has had great success against the defending champs, Boston, who by a clear margin rank number one in three-pointers made.
In Orlando, the Magic beat Boston 108-104, holding the latter to 8-of-33 shooting from behind the arc.
Despite the impressive number of good shooters that Boston boasts, Orlando was able to bother them by applying strong on-ball pressure and achieving hard close-outs.
On defense, the Magic are great at funneling the ball into the interior, where their rim protector Goga Bitadze supports a defense that is one of the best at limiting points around the basket.
While the Magic "only" rank fifth at limiting opposing field goals made within five feet of the basket, they rank number one at limiting opposing three-pointers made.
More deeply, they allow 4.1 fewer three-point attempts than any other team, are second-best at limiting opposing open three-point attempts, and are the best at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Why This Matters
The excellence of Orlando's perimeter defense makes it a great home dog in this game against the Warriors.
Golden State relies heavily on succeeding from behind the arc.
The Warriors attempt the third-most three-pointers. When a defense takes away the three-ball from them, then they lack options because they are super inefficient inside the arc — they rank 25th in two-point field goal percentage.
Orlando's Offense Will Bounce Back
The Magic were completely off in their last game. They converted 14.3 percent of their wide-open three-point attempts.
One has to expect them to bounce back at home where they had scored at least 102 points in six straight games before their Tuesday clunker.
During this six-game span, they scored over 105 points four times and accumulated as many as 121 points.
105 points feels like an extremely reasonable ask for an offense whose versatile scoring duo Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner both reliably accumulate over 20 points even against tough interior defenses like Memphis'.
One has to, moreover, expect Orlando's shooters to make more wide-open shots.
Takeaway
On February 3, the Magic stayed within five points of Golden State, scoring 99 points with bad shooting on the road. At home, Orlando's offense is better, while its defense will continue to benefit from its matchup edge.
I'm seeing a 105-101 win for the Magic here.
Best Bet: Magic +5.5 at -110 with BetOnline
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns
Thursday, February 27, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET at Footprint Center
Phoenix's Rim Protection
Phoenix's defense has struggled in general, allowing at least 119 points in all eleven February games.
One type of offense against which the Suns have struggled is one that prioritizes attacking the basket.
Most recently, the Suns gave up 151 points (including overtime) to a Memphis offense that attempts the tenth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Two games ago, they gave up 127 points to a lowly Toronto team that attempts the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
They lack rim-protecting talent. Their starting center Nick Richards, for example, can hardly be called a rim protector.
He is a low-IQ defender who will frequently be out of position whom offenses like to pick on because he does a poor job of limiting the efficiency of opposing shot-takers at the rim. His awful defensive rating substantiates such observations of his deleterious tendencies.
New Orleans Loves to Attack Inside
New Orleans has big and strong athletes with which to take advantage of Phoenix's deficient rim-protecting talent, in addition to dominating on the glass.
Look out especially for Zion Williamson, who in February is averaging 25.1 points per game and converting 60.5 percent of his field goals. He is an athletic monster who is one player whom Phoenix's defense will fail to limit.
Led by Zion, the Pelicans attempt the ninth-most field goals within five feet of the basket, where they'll thrive with their collection of rim-attackers.
Phoenix's Offense Will Decline
Phoenix's offense is in a major down spot after its incredible performance on Tuesday where it scored 148 points (including overtime), converting an insane 21 of 37 three-point attempts.
The Suns regularly fall back to earth after a one-game explosion, most recently scoring 108 in a blowout loss at Portland after amassing 130 points against Golden State and scoring 105 in a blowout loss at home against Denver after accumulating 135 (including overtime) against the Jazz.
New Orleans' improving defense has, in its last three games, allowed 111 points at Dallas, 96 against San Antonio, and 103 in the rematch against San Antonio.
Takeaway
With Phoenix's defense being so vulnerable, New Orleans so well-built to exploit it, and the Pelicans' defense playing this well, the spread feels way off.
Best Bet: Pelicans +7.5 at -110 with BetOnline
