NBA Best Bets for February 20: Don't Count Out Charlotte Tonight
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena
Key Trend Number One
The Magic are worth fading tonight because they are coming off a win.
It's a psychological fact that winning feels different than losing. It's also a fact that the Magic are not responding well to winning.
They are 0-8 in their last eight games that directly followed a victory.
In six of those games, they failed to reach 100 points.
The Importance of Jalen Suggs
Even regardless of the fade spot, Atlanta is worth backing tonight because the Magic are mispriced.
Oddsmakers do not account for how bad Orlando is without starting point guard Jalen Suggs, who remains injured.
Overall, Orlando is 3-6 since he has been hurt. Since his injury, the Magic are 1-5 without him on the road.
Rematch
These two teams met on February 10 in Orlando.
Atlanta won that game 112-106 despite two anomalous things happening.
One, Orlando, the worst three-point shooting team with a conversion rate of 30.6 percent, shot 40 percent from deep.
Two, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner had amazing games, scoring 31 and 37 points, respectively. Both scored around ten points more than their season average.
With Suggs gone, that's how much it takes for Orlando to score all of 106 points.
There just isn't enough offensive production to keep up with an Atlanta offense that has exceeded 110 points in eight straight games.
Given Orlando's problems on offense, the "under" is the way to go if you're looking to play the total. But the Hawks are the better play, with them at plus money at home.
Best Bet: Hawks ML at +100 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
The Total
The over/under for this game is 225.5. This is much too high.
In their last 13 games, the Nets have exceeded 102 points twice.
Their defense has been solid especially lately, holding six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 100 points.
Brooklyn's Improved Defense
In the span of their last 13 games, only the Thunder reached a point total that would endanger the "under" tonight. But the Thunder, in that game, shot unusually well inside the arc and made 19 threes.
Brooklyn's aggressive ball-screen defense has become very effective.
The Nets excel at keeping the ball out of the paint.
Passing from one side of the court to the other is difficult for opposing offenses.
They are likelier in general to turn it over.
While Cleveland has a strong offense, it's unreasonable to worry about whether the Cavaliers can threaten the "under," because they also have a strong defense.
Besides, the Cavaliers match up poorly against Brooklyn's defense because they rely with the second-highest frequency on pick-and-rolls for the ball-handler.
Takeaway
The Nets' defense, especially given its strength against ball-screens, will continue to thrive. So will Cleveland's.
In February, both teams rank top-three in defensive rating.
It bewilders me that, also given how poor the Nets are offensively, the over/under for this game is set at a higher total than Atlanta-Orlando.
Oddsmakers are slow to adjust to Brooklyn's transformation. Hence, the "under" has hit in ten of Brooklyn's last eleven games.
Best Bet: Under 225.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Charlotte Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
The Spread
The spread for this game stands out to me because it really disrespects Charlotte and fails to account for how competitive this team has become.
Charlotte has not lost by more than ten points in any of its last nine games.
More extensively, the Hornets have lost by over twelve points one time since Christmas.
Denver is a part of these trends: when these two teams last played, their game was decided by three points.
While that game, on February 1, was in Charlotte, the Hornets also played without their star point guard, LaMelo Ball, who averages over 27 points and seven assists per game.
Charlotte's Matchup Advantages
The Hornets match up excellently on both sides of the ball against Denver.
On defense, they prioritize limiting attempts around the basket. In February, they are allowing the sixth-fewest field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
This dedication to protecting the rim positions them well against a Denver offense that, averse to shooting threes, attempts the most field goals within five feet of the basket.
On offense, the Hornets want to shoot threes. Ball, for example, contributed five three-pointers in Charlotte's upset win over the Lakers last night.
Charlotte's offense matches up well against a Denver defense that allows the sixth-most made threes per game.
Takeaway
The Hornets continue to be vastly underrated by oddsmakers. They'll keep this game close primarily by protecting the rim and making threes.
Best Bet: Hornets +16 at -105 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena
Key Trend Number One
The Magic are worth fading tonight because they are coming off a win.
It's a psychological fact that winning feels different than losing. It's also a fact that the Magic are not responding well to winning.
They are 0-8 in their last eight games that directly followed a victory.
In six of those games, they failed to reach 100 points.
The Importance of Jalen Suggs
Even regardless of the fade spot, Atlanta is worth backing tonight because the Magic are mispriced.
Oddsmakers do not account for how bad Orlando is without starting point guard Jalen Suggs, who remains injured.
Overall, Orlando is 3-6 since he has been hurt. Since his injury, the Magic are 1-5 without him on the road.
Rematch
These two teams met on February 10 in Orlando.
Atlanta won that game 112-106 despite two anomalous things happening.
One, Orlando, the worst three-point shooting team with a conversion rate of 30.6 percent, shot 40 percent from deep.
Two, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner had amazing games, scoring 31 and 37 points, respectively. Both scored around ten points more than their season average.
With Suggs gone, that's how much it takes for Orlando to score all of 106 points.
There just isn't enough offensive production to keep up with an Atlanta offense that has exceeded 110 points in eight straight games.
Given Orlando's problems on offense, the "under" is the way to go if you're looking to play the total. But the Hawks are the better play, with them at plus money at home.
Best Bet: Hawks ML at +100 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
The Total
The over/under for this game is 225.5. This is much too high.
In their last 13 games, the Nets have exceeded 102 points twice.
Their defense has been solid especially lately, holding six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 100 points.
Brooklyn's Improved Defense
In the span of their last 13 games, only the Thunder reached a point total that would endanger the "under" tonight. But the Thunder, in that game, shot unusually well inside the arc and made 19 threes.
Brooklyn's aggressive ball-screen defense has become very effective.
The Nets excel at keeping the ball out of the paint.
Passing from one side of the court to the other is difficult for opposing offenses.
They are likelier in general to turn it over.
While Cleveland has a strong offense, it's unreasonable to worry about whether the Cavaliers can threaten the "under," because they also have a strong defense.
Besides, the Cavaliers match up poorly against Brooklyn's defense because they rely with the second-highest frequency on pick-and-rolls for the ball-handler.
Takeaway
The Nets' defense, especially given its strength against ball-screens, will continue to thrive. So will Cleveland's.
In February, both teams rank top-three in defensive rating.
It bewilders me that, also given how poor the Nets are offensively, the over/under for this game is set at a higher total than Atlanta-Orlando.
Oddsmakers are slow to adjust to Brooklyn's transformation. Hence, the "under" has hit in ten of Brooklyn's last eleven games.
Best Bet: Under 225.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Charlotte Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
The Spread
The spread for this game stands out to me because it really disrespects Charlotte and fails to account for how competitive this team has become.
Charlotte has not lost by more than ten points in any of its last nine games.
More extensively, the Hornets have lost by over twelve points one time since Christmas.
Denver is a part of these trends: when these two teams last played, their game was decided by three points.
While that game, on February 1, was in Charlotte, the Hornets also played without their star point guard, LaMelo Ball, who averages over 27 points and seven assists per game.
Charlotte's Matchup Advantages
The Hornets match up excellently on both sides of the ball against Denver.
On defense, they prioritize limiting attempts around the basket. In February, they are allowing the sixth-fewest field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
This dedication to protecting the rim positions them well against a Denver offense that, averse to shooting threes, attempts the most field goals within five feet of the basket.
On offense, the Hornets want to shoot threes. Ball, for example, contributed five three-pointers in Charlotte's upset win over the Lakers last night.
Charlotte's offense matches up well against a Denver defense that allows the sixth-most made threes per game.
Takeaway
The Hornets continue to be vastly underrated by oddsmakers. They'll keep this game close primarily by protecting the rim and making threes.
Best Bet: Hornets +16 at -105 with BetOnline
