NBA Best Bets for January 30: Oddsmakers Are Disrespecting Portland
Houston Rockets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Thursday, January 30, 2025 at 9:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum
Memphis Off a Loss
The Grizzlies are in a great spot tonight because they are coming off a loss.
History, this season, must lead us to expect that they will play with reinvigorated focus tonight.
So far this season, they are 12-4 SU after a loss.
Their best wins this year came after a loss. Highlights include a 23-point win over the Bucks, a 17-point win over the Lakers, a 15 -point win over the Nuggets, and a 155-point offensive explosion against Toronto.
Memphis Off a Double-Digit-Point Loss
But the Grizzlies are especially likely to win tonight because their last game resulted in a big defeat.
They are undefeated in their four games that directly followed a double-digit loss.
Again, this is a big "focus" spot for the Grizzlies tonight. Expect them to really lock in.
Avoiding the Sweep
This is also a big "focus" spot for the Grizzlies because they already lost three times to the Rockets this year. They will want to avoid getting swept.
It is really hard to beat a good team, as Memphis is in general and especially in the last two weeks, four times in a row.
There is no reason why Houston should have this much sustained success against the Grizzlies.
Memphis boasts great rim-attackers, such as point guard Ja Morant, with which to exploit the weakness of Houston's defense, which is guarding the basket.
The Grizzlies have the seventh-best defensive rating, so it's hard not to like them when you expect them to score a lot of points.
There will probably be a lot of action on the Rockets tonight, the underdog that has beaten Memphis three times already.
But there are, as I explained, several reasons why the Grizzlies will want this game more than the Rockets will.
Motivation is a big factor in a long regular season when teams often lack it to an extent, so all of these motivational edges will add up to make a great and decisive difference in tonight's outcome.
Best Bet: Grizzlies -5 at -115 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Thursday, January 30, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center
Portland's Superb Stretch of Play
The Trail Blazers look radically different from when they were 13-28 on January 18.
They have won five of their last six games, with the one loss coming against an elite Thunder team. They most recently, despite being clear underdogs like they are tonight, defeated a 26-19 Bucks squad.
In particular, their defense has improved.
During their 5-1 run, they have held Chicago to 102 points, Miami to 107, Orlando to 79, and Charlotte to 97.
It is true that, in their last two games, they gave up over 110 points to both the Thunder and Bucks.
However, they only gave up so many points to those two teams because they both feature star players. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of Oklahoma City and Milwaukee's Giannis are elite scorers who are difficult for any defense to contain.
Outlook for Orlando's Point Total
The Magic don't have any scorer whose caliber approaches that of Gilgeous-Alexander or Giannis.
Partly for this reason, they have one of the NBA's worst offenses. They rank second-to-last in offensive rating.
Portland's consistent ability to limit especially bad offenses creates a particularly negative outlook for Orlando's offense.
The Magic are especially awful at making threes. They are even worse at doing so on the road, where they failed to exceed 94 points in three straight games before achieving a rare respectable three-point conversion rate.
Portland Will Score Enough Points
Orlando is well-known to have a good defense, but this is primarily because of its ability to guard the perimeter.
The Magic are more determined than any other team to run opposing teams off the three-point line. By a clear margin, they allow the fewest three-point attempts per game.
They match up rather poorly against teams that don't care to attempt threes.
Portland is such a team. The Trail Blazers primarily want to attack the basket. Even their shooting guards are relatively averse to shooting threes.
Overall, they attempt the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket and will therefore not be affected by the quality of Orlando's perimeter defense.
They most recently scored 108 points and 112 points in their last two games, both of which came against great rim-protecting teams. The Thunder and Bucks, their last two opponents, feature excellent paint defenders that help them allow a uniquely low total of field goals around the basket.
It is very fair to ask Portland to approach 110 points against Orlando with its weaker interior defense.
Then, the Magic will not come close to covering the spread, because they will struggle to stay within ten points of Portland.
I'm seeing a game in which Orlando's offense does not push the Trail Blazers, who will coast to a comfortable win. My score prediction is 108-98 for Portland, which also leaves plenty of room for the "under" to hit.
Best Bet: Trail Blazers +5 at -107 with BetOnline & Under 212.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Thursday, January 30, 2025 at 9:30 p.m. ET at FedExForum
Memphis Off a Loss
The Grizzlies are in a great spot tonight because they are coming off a loss.
History, this season, must lead us to expect that they will play with reinvigorated focus tonight.
So far this season, they are 12-4 SU after a loss.
Their best wins this year came after a loss. Highlights include a 23-point win over the Bucks, a 17-point win over the Lakers, a 15 -point win over the Nuggets, and a 155-point offensive explosion against Toronto.
Memphis Off a Double-Digit-Point Loss
But the Grizzlies are especially likely to win tonight because their last game resulted in a big defeat.
They are undefeated in their four games that directly followed a double-digit loss.
Again, this is a big "focus" spot for the Grizzlies tonight. Expect them to really lock in.
Avoiding the Sweep
This is also a big "focus" spot for the Grizzlies because they already lost three times to the Rockets this year. They will want to avoid getting swept.
It is really hard to beat a good team, as Memphis is in general and especially in the last two weeks, four times in a row.
There is no reason why Houston should have this much sustained success against the Grizzlies.
Memphis boasts great rim-attackers, such as point guard Ja Morant, with which to exploit the weakness of Houston's defense, which is guarding the basket.
The Grizzlies have the seventh-best defensive rating, so it's hard not to like them when you expect them to score a lot of points.
There will probably be a lot of action on the Rockets tonight, the underdog that has beaten Memphis three times already.
But there are, as I explained, several reasons why the Grizzlies will want this game more than the Rockets will.
Motivation is a big factor in a long regular season when teams often lack it to an extent, so all of these motivational edges will add up to make a great and decisive difference in tonight's outcome.
Best Bet: Grizzlies -5 at -115 with BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Thursday, January 30, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center
Portland's Superb Stretch of Play
The Trail Blazers look radically different from when they were 13-28 on January 18.
They have won five of their last six games, with the one loss coming against an elite Thunder team. They most recently, despite being clear underdogs like they are tonight, defeated a 26-19 Bucks squad.
In particular, their defense has improved.
During their 5-1 run, they have held Chicago to 102 points, Miami to 107, Orlando to 79, and Charlotte to 97.
It is true that, in their last two games, they gave up over 110 points to both the Thunder and Bucks.
However, they only gave up so many points to those two teams because they both feature star players. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of Oklahoma City and Milwaukee's Giannis are elite scorers who are difficult for any defense to contain.
Outlook for Orlando's Point Total
The Magic don't have any scorer whose caliber approaches that of Gilgeous-Alexander or Giannis.
Partly for this reason, they have one of the NBA's worst offenses. They rank second-to-last in offensive rating.
Portland's consistent ability to limit especially bad offenses creates a particularly negative outlook for Orlando's offense.
The Magic are especially awful at making threes. They are even worse at doing so on the road, where they failed to exceed 94 points in three straight games before achieving a rare respectable three-point conversion rate.
Portland Will Score Enough Points
Orlando is well-known to have a good defense, but this is primarily because of its ability to guard the perimeter.
The Magic are more determined than any other team to run opposing teams off the three-point line. By a clear margin, they allow the fewest three-point attempts per game.
They match up rather poorly against teams that don't care to attempt threes.
Portland is such a team. The Trail Blazers primarily want to attack the basket. Even their shooting guards are relatively averse to shooting threes.
Overall, they attempt the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket and will therefore not be affected by the quality of Orlando's perimeter defense.
They most recently scored 108 points and 112 points in their last two games, both of which came against great rim-protecting teams. The Thunder and Bucks, their last two opponents, feature excellent paint defenders that help them allow a uniquely low total of field goals around the basket.
It is very fair to ask Portland to approach 110 points against Orlando with its weaker interior defense.
Then, the Magic will not come close to covering the spread, because they will struggle to stay within ten points of Portland.
I'm seeing a game in which Orlando's offense does not push the Trail Blazers, who will coast to a comfortable win. My score prediction is 108-98 for Portland, which also leaves plenty of room for the "under" to hit.
Best Bet: Trail Blazers +5 at -107 with BetOnline & Under 212.5 at -110 with BetOnline
