NBA Best Bets for January 23: Raptors Are on the Prowl
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
Thursday, January 23, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET at Accor Arena in Paris, France
Indiana's Ongoing Dominance
The Pacers are red-hot in January. In this month, they are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS.
Their one loss, both SU and ATS, took place in a rematch against an elite Cleveland team that they had just beaten in their previous game. Their starting point guard Tyrese Haliburton did not play in the rematch.
As evident in Indiana's ATS run, oddsmakers are not accounting for just how good the Pacers are playing at this moment.
San Antonio's Struggles
The exact opposite is true of San Antonio.
San Antonio has lost each of its last three games. The Spurs lost at home to Memphis by 14, at home to Memphis (again) by 28, and in Miami by 21.
More extensively, the Spurs are suffering 1-6 SU and ATS runs.
Victor Wembanyama's Decline
One reason why San Antonio is struggling is the relatively poor play of key center Victor Wembanyama.
As the team's leading scorer by a large margin, Wembanyana is heavily depended on by his team.
But he hasn't reached his scoring average — he averages 24 points per game — in any of his last seven games.
He is failing to be as efficient a scorer as he was before this seven-game rut.
Wembanyama's Outlook
I dislike Wembanyama's outlook tonight also because he is in a tough situation.
Already struggling, he is playing in his home country of France today, where he is going to be leveled with additional attention and pressure.
Moreover, he faces a tough matchup.
Indiana center Myles Turner, with his fifth-ranked two blocks per game, will focus on him. But so will his team, which during its dominant January has done a much better job than before of limiting field goals within five feet of the basket. They are now one of the better teams at doing this.
The Pacers benefit from their dedication to limiting field goal attempts in this space.
Indiana's Perimeter Defense
San Antonio also attempts way more three-pointers this year than last year. It ranks sixth in three-point attempts, at the moment.
So it's highly relevant, to the outlook of San Antonio's offense as a whole, to note that guarding the perimeter is a strength for Indiana.
The Pacers allow the eighth-fewest made three-pointers per game.
They benefit from the continued health of Aaron Nesmith, who is commonly assigned to guard the other team's top scorer.
Indiana's Consistent Offense
The Pacers field a well-rounded offense that will thrive in the mid-range with guys like Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton, and T.J. McConnell.
They'll use Bennedict Mathurin, an effective slasher and shot-maker, to attack the basket against a Spurs defense that gives up the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket. Mathurin is in a particularly strong spot today because he regularly bounces back after a single-digit scoring performance.
After an off-day from deep in their last game — although they still reached their per-game average of 115 points — the Pacers are also primed to achieve an efficient three-point conversion rate with reliable shooters like Turner and Siakam.
San Antonio's perimeter defense ranks 20th and will form part of its overall defense's struggles against an Indiana team that reliably scores 115 points or more, even as it repeatedly holds teams to around 100 or fewer points.
Takeaway
Indiana is dominating, and oddsmakers aren't accounting for it.
Expect the Pacers to lock down the Spurs in front of the basket and behind the arc, whereas Indiana's offense will succeed at the basket, in the mid-range, and behind the arc.
Best Bet: Pacers -3.5 at -110 with BetOnline; Spurs under 113.5 points at -120 with Bovada; Victor Wembanyama under 27.5 points at -105 with Bovada; Bennedict Mathurin over 15.5 points at +110 with Bovada
Toronto Raptors vs. Atlanta Hawks
Thursday, January 23, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena
Toronto's New Form
Folks will be inclined to bet against the Raptors because Atlanta blew them out in their last game.
But these teams last played on December 29, and Toronto was a completely different team then.
When the Raptors last played Atlanta, they were in the midst of a nine-game losing streak. Before playing Atlanta, they had just lost by 29 points to Memphis.
Now, though, the Raptors have won three of their last four games.
During their strong run of play, they defeated a defending champion Boston team that had beaten them by 54 points in their last meeting.
Likewise, they won by 16 against Orlando after previously losing to the Magic by nine.
Their only loss came to Milwaukee, which has an inside scoring menace in annual MVP candidate Giannis that Atlanta (as well as the teams that Toronto just beat) certainly does not have.
Toronto Will Thrive Inside
The Raptors primarily want to attack the basket.
They just upset, by a clear margin, an Orlando team that is missing its starting center who is also a key rim protector.
Their outlook, as a group that attempts the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket, remains strong against an Atlanta team that allows the fourth-most field goals in this space.
Atlanta lacks sufficient quality in its on-ball defenders and in its rim protection to prevent the likes of Scottie Barnes from thriving at the basket.
Takeaway
Toronto is consistently holding teams to 101 points or fewer. Atlanta doesn't have a physical freak like Giannis to do what Milwaukee did.
The Hawks also don't have the defensive quality to contain Toronto's inside attack.
Whereas the Raptors will thrive inside on offense, the Hawks will struggle to make baskets.
Best Bet: Raptors +5 at -110 with BetOnline
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
Thursday, January 23, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET at Accor Arena in Paris, France
Indiana's Ongoing Dominance
The Pacers are red-hot in January. In this month, they are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS.
Their one loss, both SU and ATS, took place in a rematch against an elite Cleveland team that they had just beaten in their previous game. Their starting point guard Tyrese Haliburton did not play in the rematch.
As evident in Indiana's ATS run, oddsmakers are not accounting for just how good the Pacers are playing at this moment.
San Antonio's Struggles
The exact opposite is true of San Antonio.
San Antonio has lost each of its last three games. The Spurs lost at home to Memphis by 14, at home to Memphis (again) by 28, and in Miami by 21.
More extensively, the Spurs are suffering 1-6 SU and ATS runs.
Victor Wembanyama's Decline
One reason why San Antonio is struggling is the relatively poor play of key center Victor Wembanyama.
As the team's leading scorer by a large margin, Wembanyana is heavily depended on by his team.
But he hasn't reached his scoring average — he averages 24 points per game — in any of his last seven games.
He is failing to be as efficient a scorer as he was before this seven-game rut.
Wembanyama's Outlook
I dislike Wembanyama's outlook tonight also because he is in a tough situation.
Already struggling, he is playing in his home country of France today, where he is going to be leveled with additional attention and pressure.
Moreover, he faces a tough matchup.
Indiana center Myles Turner, with his fifth-ranked two blocks per game, will focus on him. But so will his team, which during its dominant January has done a much better job than before of limiting field goals within five feet of the basket. They are now one of the better teams at doing this.
The Pacers benefit from their dedication to limiting field goal attempts in this space.
Indiana's Perimeter Defense
San Antonio also attempts way more three-pointers this year than last year. It ranks sixth in three-point attempts, at the moment.
So it's highly relevant, to the outlook of San Antonio's offense as a whole, to note that guarding the perimeter is a strength for Indiana.
The Pacers allow the eighth-fewest made three-pointers per game.
They benefit from the continued health of Aaron Nesmith, who is commonly assigned to guard the other team's top scorer.
Indiana's Consistent Offense
The Pacers field a well-rounded offense that will thrive in the mid-range with guys like Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton, and T.J. McConnell.
They'll use Bennedict Mathurin, an effective slasher and shot-maker, to attack the basket against a Spurs defense that gives up the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket. Mathurin is in a particularly strong spot today because he regularly bounces back after a single-digit scoring performance.
After an off-day from deep in their last game — although they still reached their per-game average of 115 points — the Pacers are also primed to achieve an efficient three-point conversion rate with reliable shooters like Turner and Siakam.
San Antonio's perimeter defense ranks 20th and will form part of its overall defense's struggles against an Indiana team that reliably scores 115 points or more, even as it repeatedly holds teams to around 100 or fewer points.
Takeaway
Indiana is dominating, and oddsmakers aren't accounting for it.
Expect the Pacers to lock down the Spurs in front of the basket and behind the arc, whereas Indiana's offense will succeed at the basket, in the mid-range, and behind the arc.
Best Bet: Pacers -3.5 at -110 with BetOnline; Spurs under 113.5 points at -120 with Bovada; Victor Wembanyama under 27.5 points at -105 with Bovada; Bennedict Mathurin over 15.5 points at +110 with Bovada
Toronto Raptors vs. Atlanta Hawks
Thursday, January 23, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena
Toronto's New Form
Folks will be inclined to bet against the Raptors because Atlanta blew them out in their last game.
But these teams last played on December 29, and Toronto was a completely different team then.
When the Raptors last played Atlanta, they were in the midst of a nine-game losing streak. Before playing Atlanta, they had just lost by 29 points to Memphis.
Now, though, the Raptors have won three of their last four games.
During their strong run of play, they defeated a defending champion Boston team that had beaten them by 54 points in their last meeting.
Likewise, they won by 16 against Orlando after previously losing to the Magic by nine.
Their only loss came to Milwaukee, which has an inside scoring menace in annual MVP candidate Giannis that Atlanta (as well as the teams that Toronto just beat) certainly does not have.
Toronto Will Thrive Inside
The Raptors primarily want to attack the basket.
They just upset, by a clear margin, an Orlando team that is missing its starting center who is also a key rim protector.
Their outlook, as a group that attempts the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket, remains strong against an Atlanta team that allows the fourth-most field goals in this space.
Atlanta lacks sufficient quality in its on-ball defenders and in its rim protection to prevent the likes of Scottie Barnes from thriving at the basket.
Takeaway
Toronto is consistently holding teams to 101 points or fewer. Atlanta doesn't have a physical freak like Giannis to do what Milwaukee did.
The Hawks also don't have the defensive quality to contain Toronto's inside attack.
Whereas the Raptors will thrive inside on offense, the Hawks will struggle to make baskets.
Best Bet: Raptors +5 at -110 with BetOnline
