NBA Best Bets for January 9: Tonight Is Tobias Harris' Night
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Orlando Magic
Thursday, January 9, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Orlando's Problem and Solution
Several key Magic scorers are injured and unable to play.
Starting point guard Jalen Suggs, who averages 16.4 points per game, is sidelined with a back injury.
Fellow starter, forward Franz Wagner, averages over 24 points per game but remains sidelined due to his oblique injury.
Moritz Wagner, a double-digit scorer, is already out for the year with a torn ACL.
Paolo Banchero might return tonight, but he hasn't played in a game since October 30.
Orlando's problem, therefore, is a lack of scoring talent. Its solution is to rely on its excellent defense in order to win games.
Orlando's Perimeter Defense
Especially Orlando's perimeter defense is solid.
The Magic allow, by far, the fewest three-point attempts per game. They allow four fewer of them than any other team.
Moreover, they allow the fourth-fewest open three-point attempts and the fewest wide-open ones.
These statistics show that Orlando's defense excels at running three-point shooters off the three-point line. They are also great at preventing catch-and-shoot opportunities.
They also evidently do a solid job of contesting three-point attempts.
Overall, they allow, by a clear margin, the fewest made three-pointers per game.
Why This Matters
It matters that Orlando's perimeter defense is so solid because Minnesota's offense relies heavily on making three-pointers.
The Timberwolves attempt the sixth-most threes per game. They are one of seven teams to attempt over 40 per game.
As a team reliant on scoring via three-pointers, they will be immensely uncomfortable on offense against Orlando.
The Magic are already solid on defense against offenses that they don't match up so well against.
They have allowed fewer than 102 points to five of their last seven opponents. In the two exceptions, they allowed all of 105 points.
Takeaway
On offense, Orlando regularly struggles to reach 100 points. It has failed to reach this point total in four of its last seven games.
Minnesota has a comparatively solid defense, ranking seventh in defensive rating, so it will easily prolong Orlando's injury-induced scoring woes by holding the Magic to fewer than 100 points.
The Magic will need their defense to be sharp in order to compete in this game. It matches up optimally against Minnesota's offense.
Best Bet: Under 204 at -110 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Detroit Pistons
Thursday, January 9, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena
Missing Jaden Ivey
Detroit's offense is likelier to flounder now that Jaden Ivey is hurt.
Ivey is the team's second-leading scorer. He was also an effective ball-handler and distributor, giving Detroit's point guard Cade Cunningham-led offense a secondary ball-handling option.
Without Ivey, the Pistons' offense relies extensively on Cunningham.
Outlook for Cade Cunningham Tonight
I don't like Detroit's offense tonight because Ivey is out and Cunningham has a terrible outlook against Golden State.
This is because Cunningham relies heavily on dribble hand-offs and especially on ball-screens. The latter play-type forms a great percentage of his actions.
Golden State, as evident in the very low PPP (points per possession) average that it concedes against each play-type, excels at defending both.
Therefore, Cunningham will struggle to score.
Golden State's Scoring Struggles
I like the full-game "under" in this matchup because Golden State is likewise struggling to score.
Even with Steph Curry playing and playing well, the Warriors failed to reach 100 points in both of their last two games — against mediocre (per defensive rating) Miami and Sacramento defenses.
Curry might not even play tonight. He is listed as 'questionable' with an ongoing knee problem.
Key Trend
But even with everybody healthy, the Warriors' offense is in an awful spot tonight.
It tends to struggle to produce points in the first road game following a home game.
In this spot, Golden State has failed to reach 94 points in any of its last three tries. It has exceeded 105 points only two times in seven tries.
Its offense exploded in this spot only when it could count on fantastic games from Jonathan Kuminga, who is now injured, and from Buddy Hield, who has been ice-cold behind the arc. Hield
has failed to make as many as two three-pointers in six of his last eight games.
Favorite Prop Bet
Now, while I love the full-game "under," we should recognize that there will still be around 190 to 200 total points scored in this game.
So, we shouldn't shy away from a player's point total "over" when we really like it.
I love Tobias Harris tonight.
Power forwards have thrived against the Warriors.
In their last three games, they allowed Miami's Nikola Jovic to more than double his points-per-game average by scoring 20 points, Sacramento's Domantas Sabonis to exceed his scoring average by accumulating 22 points, and Memphis' Jaren Jackson Jr. to likewise exceed his points-per-game average by amassing 23 points even though he failed to make a three-pointer.
The consistent success of opposing power forwards suggests that Tobias Harris will thrive tonight.
Additional key factors that weigh in his favor are Ivey's absence and Cunningham's negative outlook.
NBA teams obviously don't get shut out. Detroit's points will come from somewhere tonight, and Harris will be the main source of them.
Best Bet: Under 219 at -110 with BetOnline & Tobias Harris over 13.5 points at -120 with Bovada
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Orlando Magic
Thursday, January 9, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Orlando's Problem and Solution
Several key Magic scorers are injured and unable to play.
Starting point guard Jalen Suggs, who averages 16.4 points per game, is sidelined with a back injury.
Fellow starter, forward Franz Wagner, averages over 24 points per game but remains sidelined due to his oblique injury.
Moritz Wagner, a double-digit scorer, is already out for the year with a torn ACL.
Paolo Banchero might return tonight, but he hasn't played in a game since October 30.
Orlando's problem, therefore, is a lack of scoring talent. Its solution is to rely on its excellent defense in order to win games.
Orlando's Perimeter Defense
Especially Orlando's perimeter defense is solid.
The Magic allow, by far, the fewest three-point attempts per game. They allow four fewer of them than any other team.
Moreover, they allow the fourth-fewest open three-point attempts and the fewest wide-open ones.
These statistics show that Orlando's defense excels at running three-point shooters off the three-point line. They are also great at preventing catch-and-shoot opportunities.
They also evidently do a solid job of contesting three-point attempts.
Overall, they allow, by a clear margin, the fewest made three-pointers per game.
Why This Matters
It matters that Orlando's perimeter defense is so solid because Minnesota's offense relies heavily on making three-pointers.
The Timberwolves attempt the sixth-most threes per game. They are one of seven teams to attempt over 40 per game.
As a team reliant on scoring via three-pointers, they will be immensely uncomfortable on offense against Orlando.
The Magic are already solid on defense against offenses that they don't match up so well against.
They have allowed fewer than 102 points to five of their last seven opponents. In the two exceptions, they allowed all of 105 points.
Takeaway
On offense, Orlando regularly struggles to reach 100 points. It has failed to reach this point total in four of its last seven games.
Minnesota has a comparatively solid defense, ranking seventh in defensive rating, so it will easily prolong Orlando's injury-induced scoring woes by holding the Magic to fewer than 100 points.
The Magic will need their defense to be sharp in order to compete in this game. It matches up optimally against Minnesota's offense.
Best Bet: Under 204 at -110 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Detroit Pistons
Thursday, January 9, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena
Missing Jaden Ivey
Detroit's offense is likelier to flounder now that Jaden Ivey is hurt.
Ivey is the team's second-leading scorer. He was also an effective ball-handler and distributor, giving Detroit's point guard Cade Cunningham-led offense a secondary ball-handling option.
Without Ivey, the Pistons' offense relies extensively on Cunningham.
Outlook for Cade Cunningham Tonight
I don't like Detroit's offense tonight because Ivey is out and Cunningham has a terrible outlook against Golden State.
This is because Cunningham relies heavily on dribble hand-offs and especially on ball-screens. The latter play-type forms a great percentage of his actions.
Golden State, as evident in the very low PPP (points per possession) average that it concedes against each play-type, excels at defending both.
Therefore, Cunningham will struggle to score.
Golden State's Scoring Struggles
I like the full-game "under" in this matchup because Golden State is likewise struggling to score.
Even with Steph Curry playing and playing well, the Warriors failed to reach 100 points in both of their last two games — against mediocre (per defensive rating) Miami and Sacramento defenses.
Curry might not even play tonight. He is listed as 'questionable' with an ongoing knee problem.
Key Trend
But even with everybody healthy, the Warriors' offense is in an awful spot tonight.
It tends to struggle to produce points in the first road game following a home game.
In this spot, Golden State has failed to reach 94 points in any of its last three tries. It has exceeded 105 points only two times in seven tries.
Its offense exploded in this spot only when it could count on fantastic games from Jonathan Kuminga, who is now injured, and from Buddy Hield, who has been ice-cold behind the arc. Hield
has failed to make as many as two three-pointers in six of his last eight games.
Favorite Prop Bet
Now, while I love the full-game "under," we should recognize that there will still be around 190 to 200 total points scored in this game.
So, we shouldn't shy away from a player's point total "over" when we really like it.
I love Tobias Harris tonight.
Power forwards have thrived against the Warriors.
In their last three games, they allowed Miami's Nikola Jovic to more than double his points-per-game average by scoring 20 points, Sacramento's Domantas Sabonis to exceed his scoring average by accumulating 22 points, and Memphis' Jaren Jackson Jr. to likewise exceed his points-per-game average by amassing 23 points even though he failed to make a three-pointer.
The consistent success of opposing power forwards suggests that Tobias Harris will thrive tonight.
Additional key factors that weigh in his favor are Ivey's absence and Cunningham's negative outlook.
NBA teams obviously don't get shut out. Detroit's points will come from somewhere tonight, and Harris will be the main source of them.
Best Bet: Under 219 at -110 with BetOnline & Tobias Harris over 13.5 points at -120 with Bovada
