NBA Best Bets for December 26: The Pistons Are Cruising in Sacramento
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
Series History
One reason why I find the spread for this game wild is the series history.
The odds imply that Milwaukee will win by a significant margin, but these teams repeatedly play each other and repeatedly show that we are not justified in expecting a large Bucks victory.
This year, the Bucks lost by 13 in Brooklyn and won the rematch in Brooklyn by five.
Last year, two of their three games were decided by seven points or fewer.
And yet the Bucks are favored by 10.5.
Injury Report
Whenever the Bucks beat Brooklyn, they relied on tremendous scoring performances — as in, at least 30 points — from either of their star players, Giannis or Damian Lillard.
But both players are banged-up. Lillard is dealing with a calf issue and an illness that have prevented him from playing in any of his team's last three games.
Giannis has missed his team's last two games with back spasms.
Both players are listed as 'questionable' for this game, and their injury reports seem to emphasize the possibility that they might not play, which suggests that they would be less than 100% if they were to play.
While the Nets are also dealing with a few injuries, none of their banged-up players are as significant to them as Giannis or Lillard is to Milwaukee.
Brooklyn's Big Matchup Edge
The Nets match up well against the Bucks.
Milwaukee is favored partly because its rim protection has generally made it successful on defense.
However, specific offenses that don't rely as heavily as other teams do on scoring at the rim will have a better outlook against Milwaukee's defense.
Brooklyn is one such team: the Nets attempt the seventh-most three-pointers per game.
They can exploit a Milwaukee defense that does a rather poor job of limiting wide-open three-point attempts and of limiting three-point attempts in general.
The Nets will be comfortable on offense against this defense that will concede favorable looks from behind the arc to them.
The Last Game
When Milwaukee recently beat the Nets by five, the Bucks shot an absurd 48.4-percent from deep.
One can't expect them to do that again or, accordingly, to reach 118 points again.
The Nets, then, don't have to be that great on offense in order to cover the large spread. But their matchup advantage on offense will even give them a realistic chance of winning this game.
Best Bet: Nets +10.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Detroit Pistons vs. Sacramento Kings
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
Key Trends
Sacramento is favored in this game because it is the home team.
The odds imply that they derive an advantage from playing at home.
But reality says the opposite.
Whereas they have a winning record on the road, they are 6-11 at home.
Sacramento's struggles at home have been ongoing. They enter tonight's game on a four-game losing streak, with all four of those losses taking place in Sacramento.
On the other side, Detroit has been better on the road than it has been at home.
Whereas the Pistons are 5-8 at home, they are 8-9 on the road.
Defending Ball-Screens
Detroit's offense is ball-screen heavy: the Pistons run ball-screens for a ball-handler with the seventh-highest frequency.
This is important because the Kings are awful at guarding ball-screens. They concede the third-highest PPP (points per possession) total against this play type.
Their defense is debilitated as it is because it employs Domantas Sabonis at the five, meaning they play without a true rim-protector, when Sabonis should really play at the four, as he did in Indiana.
They employ him in drop coverage, which allows opposing ball-handlers to go downhill and attack the basket, which Sabonis is not good at defending.
Sabonis' backup Trey Lyles likewise needs to be in drop coverage because he is awful at guarding the perimeter, which means that opposing ball-handlers will easily blow by him.
In Indiana, Sabonis got to play alongside a terrific rim protector in Myles Turner, but in Sacramento he just has undersized teammates who cannot conceal or make up for his deficiencies.
In fact, other Kings defenders are terrible on defense, with DeMar DeRozan providing another example.
For example, halfway through the first quarter in their loss against the Thunder, you can see his inability to fight through screens.
Because the Kings like to switch, opposing offenses are able to use ball-screens to match-up hunt. They like to target DeRozan.
Video footage shows the disposition of his teammates to position themselves near him in order to help him because his on-ball defense is so weak.
But this aggressive helping only allows the opposing offense to find and make easy passes.
Expect guys like Cade Cunningham to take advantage of Sacramento's ball-screen defense especially by successfully attacking the basket.
Takeaway
Detroit's offense will outpace a Sacramento offense that has failed to exceed 100 points in any of its last three games.
The Kings won't turn things around at home where they have struggled all year and where Detroit will be more comfortable than it would be at home.
Best Bet: Pistons +5.5 at -120 with BetOnline
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum
Series History
One reason why I find the spread for this game wild is the series history.
The odds imply that Milwaukee will win by a significant margin, but these teams repeatedly play each other and repeatedly show that we are not justified in expecting a large Bucks victory.
This year, the Bucks lost by 13 in Brooklyn and won the rematch in Brooklyn by five.
Last year, two of their three games were decided by seven points or fewer.
And yet the Bucks are favored by 10.5.
Injury Report
Whenever the Bucks beat Brooklyn, they relied on tremendous scoring performances — as in, at least 30 points — from either of their star players, Giannis or Damian Lillard.
But both players are banged-up. Lillard is dealing with a calf issue and an illness that have prevented him from playing in any of his team's last three games.
Giannis has missed his team's last two games with back spasms.
Both players are listed as 'questionable' for this game, and their injury reports seem to emphasize the possibility that they might not play, which suggests that they would be less than 100% if they were to play.
While the Nets are also dealing with a few injuries, none of their banged-up players are as significant to them as Giannis or Lillard is to Milwaukee.
Brooklyn's Big Matchup Edge
The Nets match up well against the Bucks.
Milwaukee is favored partly because its rim protection has generally made it successful on defense.
However, specific offenses that don't rely as heavily as other teams do on scoring at the rim will have a better outlook against Milwaukee's defense.
Brooklyn is one such team: the Nets attempt the seventh-most three-pointers per game.
They can exploit a Milwaukee defense that does a rather poor job of limiting wide-open three-point attempts and of limiting three-point attempts in general.
The Nets will be comfortable on offense against this defense that will concede favorable looks from behind the arc to them.
The Last Game
When Milwaukee recently beat the Nets by five, the Bucks shot an absurd 48.4-percent from deep.
One can't expect them to do that again or, accordingly, to reach 118 points again.
The Nets, then, don't have to be that great on offense in order to cover the large spread. But their matchup advantage on offense will even give them a realistic chance of winning this game.
Best Bet: Nets +10.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Detroit Pistons vs. Sacramento Kings
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
Key Trends
Sacramento is favored in this game because it is the home team.
The odds imply that they derive an advantage from playing at home.
But reality says the opposite.
Whereas they have a winning record on the road, they are 6-11 at home.
Sacramento's struggles at home have been ongoing. They enter tonight's game on a four-game losing streak, with all four of those losses taking place in Sacramento.
On the other side, Detroit has been better on the road than it has been at home.
Whereas the Pistons are 5-8 at home, they are 8-9 on the road.
Defending Ball-Screens
Detroit's offense is ball-screen heavy: the Pistons run ball-screens for a ball-handler with the seventh-highest frequency.
This is important because the Kings are awful at guarding ball-screens. They concede the third-highest PPP (points per possession) total against this play type.
Their defense is debilitated as it is because it employs Domantas Sabonis at the five, meaning they play without a true rim-protector, when Sabonis should really play at the four, as he did in Indiana.
They employ him in drop coverage, which allows opposing ball-handlers to go downhill and attack the basket, which Sabonis is not good at defending.
Sabonis' backup Trey Lyles likewise needs to be in drop coverage because he is awful at guarding the perimeter, which means that opposing ball-handlers will easily blow by him.
In Indiana, Sabonis got to play alongside a terrific rim protector in Myles Turner, but in Sacramento he just has undersized teammates who cannot conceal or make up for his deficiencies.
In fact, other Kings defenders are terrible on defense, with DeMar DeRozan providing another example.
For example, halfway through the first quarter in their loss against the Thunder, you can see his inability to fight through screens.
Because the Kings like to switch, opposing offenses are able to use ball-screens to match-up hunt. They like to target DeRozan.
Video footage shows the disposition of his teammates to position themselves near him in order to help him because his on-ball defense is so weak.
But this aggressive helping only allows the opposing offense to find and make easy passes.
Expect guys like Cade Cunningham to take advantage of Sacramento's ball-screen defense especially by successfully attacking the basket.
Takeaway
Detroit's offense will outpace a Sacramento offense that has failed to exceed 100 points in any of its last three games.
The Kings won't turn things around at home where they have struggled all year and where Detroit will be more comfortable than it would be at home.
Best Bet: Pistons +5.5 at -120 with BetOnline
