NBA Best Bets for December 19: The Spurs Aren't Favored Heavily Enough
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Orlando Magic
Thursday, December 19, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Series History
To many bettors, the Magic at home seem to be dogged by too many points.
But the series history says otherwise.
Last year, the Thunder and Magic played twice. Oklahoma City won both times, by twelve at home and by 14 in Orlando.
So far this season, OKC and Orlando have played once. The Thunder won by 16 at home.
In their last three meetings against the Magic, therefore, the Thunder are 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 14 points.
How Orlando Wants to Play
These two teams are, stylistically very different.
Their stylistic difference is important because the outcome of games between stylistically different teams will typically be decided by either team's ability to impose its preferred style upon the flow of the game.
Orlando is averse to playing in transition. Instead of running up and down the court, the Magic prefer a half-court game. They want to play slow. Hence, they rank 27th in pace.
Why This Is A Problem
In order to be a strong half-court offense, it's important to execute well in the half-court.
Orlando's preference for half-court games is a problem because it does not execute well in the half-court.
The Magic lack strong three-point shooters.
But they also lack reliable inside scorers.
Their top scorer is Paolo Banchero, who scored 20 or more points in both of his games against the Thunder last year, although his Magic were still blown out both times.
Banchero is still unable to play as a result of his long-term oblique injury.
Partly due to his continued absence, the Magic rank 24th in field goal percentage.
Oklahoma City's Offense Is Primed to Thrive
Magic backers will emphasize the overall quality of Orlando's defense.
But this emphasis overlooks the importance of Orlando's offense.
Oklahoma City wants to run up and down and execute in transition — the Thunder rank top-five in both frequency of transition plays and in transition points per game.
The Thunder's preference for attacking in transition is connected to the quality of the Magic's offense because a team's transition offense is facilitated by missed baskets from its opponent.
Orlando's inability to make shots — especially against a Thunder defense that, by a clear margin, ranks number one in defensive rating — will allow the Thunder to succeed greatly in their transition attack and hence to succeed overall on offense.
Supporting Data
It is transparent this year that OKC thrives against not just Orlando, but also against teams in general that struggle to make shots.
The Thunder are 7-1 against teams that rank in the bottom seven in field goal percentage.
They won two of those games by ten points and the other five by 15 or more points.
This decisive trend suggests that the Thunder will blow out Orlando tonight.
Takeaway
Orlando will struggle to score, even more greatly than it struggles to score in general, against Oklahoma City's top-notch defense.
The Thunder will literally run to a double-digit victory by taking advantage of Orlando's deficient offense.
Best Bet: Thunder -6.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Thursday, December 19, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Frost Bank Center
Atlanta's Offense
On offense, the Hawks depend heavily on scoring at the basket.
This dependence is strengthened by their dearth of effective three-point shooters.
Overall, they rank 24th in three-point percentage.
They primarily want to drive to the basket.
With its collective of rim-attackers, Atlanta attempts the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
San Antonio's Perimeter Defenders and Rim Protection
San Antonio has the defensive personnel and the defensive focus against which a team like Atlanta, that primarily wants to score at the basket, will struggle.
The Spurs have strong perimeter defenders against whom it is tough for ball-handlers to drive past.
Jeremy Sochan, for example, has ranked strongly compared to other perimeter defenders in terms of their ability to guard in isolation.
His defensive field goal percentage likewise positions him as a high-level defender.
The latter point observation also applies to center and key rim-protector Victor Wembanyama, who was an All-Defensive First Team selection last year.
With guys like Sochan and Wembanyama, who can contain opposing rim-attackers as they drive to the basket and can protect the rim, San Antonio allows the sixth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
San Antonio's Three-Point-Oriented Attack
San Antonio's offense matches up optimally against Atlanta's defense.
The Spurs primarily want to shoot threes. They attempt the seventh-most three-pointers per game.
They will succeed against an Atlanta team that allows the most made three-pointers per game.
No team is worse at limiting opposing three-point attempts and at limiting opposing open three-point attempts than Atlanta.
Therefore, San Antonio will be very comfortable on offense.
My Favorite Scorer
Among others, look out for the Spurs' shooting guard Devin Vassell.
He is shooting 40 percent from deep this month and is coming off a rare game in which he failed to make a three.
When he last failed to make a three in a game, he made four in his following outing.
Takeaway
The Spurs will score with ease against Atlanta's defense.
Whereas they will thrive in their preferred spaces by making a lot of threes, Atlanta will depend on attacking the basket but will flounder against San Antonio's combination of solid perimeter defense and stout rim protection.
For your prop betting, Vassell makes for a great investment. He is a terrific shooter who, against Atlanta's porous perimeter defense, will both attempt a lot of threes and make a lot of them.
Best Bet: Spurs -1.5 at -115 with BetOnline & Devin Vassell Over 2.5 Three Point Field Goals Made at +144 with BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Orlando Magic
Thursday, December 19, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Series History
To many bettors, the Magic at home seem to be dogged by too many points.
But the series history says otherwise.
Last year, the Thunder and Magic played twice. Oklahoma City won both times, by twelve at home and by 14 in Orlando.
So far this season, OKC and Orlando have played once. The Thunder won by 16 at home.
In their last three meetings against the Magic, therefore, the Thunder are 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 14 points.
How Orlando Wants to Play
These two teams are, stylistically very different.
Their stylistic difference is important because the outcome of games between stylistically different teams will typically be decided by either team's ability to impose its preferred style upon the flow of the game.
Orlando is averse to playing in transition. Instead of running up and down the court, the Magic prefer a half-court game. They want to play slow. Hence, they rank 27th in pace.
Why This Is A Problem
In order to be a strong half-court offense, it's important to execute well in the half-court.
Orlando's preference for half-court games is a problem because it does not execute well in the half-court.
The Magic lack strong three-point shooters.
But they also lack reliable inside scorers.
Their top scorer is Paolo Banchero, who scored 20 or more points in both of his games against the Thunder last year, although his Magic were still blown out both times.
Banchero is still unable to play as a result of his long-term oblique injury.
Partly due to his continued absence, the Magic rank 24th in field goal percentage.
Oklahoma City's Offense Is Primed to Thrive
Magic backers will emphasize the overall quality of Orlando's defense.
But this emphasis overlooks the importance of Orlando's offense.
Oklahoma City wants to run up and down and execute in transition — the Thunder rank top-five in both frequency of transition plays and in transition points per game.
The Thunder's preference for attacking in transition is connected to the quality of the Magic's offense because a team's transition offense is facilitated by missed baskets from its opponent.
Orlando's inability to make shots — especially against a Thunder defense that, by a clear margin, ranks number one in defensive rating — will allow the Thunder to succeed greatly in their transition attack and hence to succeed overall on offense.
Supporting Data
It is transparent this year that OKC thrives against not just Orlando, but also against teams in general that struggle to make shots.
The Thunder are 7-1 against teams that rank in the bottom seven in field goal percentage.
They won two of those games by ten points and the other five by 15 or more points.
This decisive trend suggests that the Thunder will blow out Orlando tonight.
Takeaway
Orlando will struggle to score, even more greatly than it struggles to score in general, against Oklahoma City's top-notch defense.
The Thunder will literally run to a double-digit victory by taking advantage of Orlando's deficient offense.
Best Bet: Thunder -6.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Thursday, December 19, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Frost Bank Center
Atlanta's Offense
On offense, the Hawks depend heavily on scoring at the basket.
This dependence is strengthened by their dearth of effective three-point shooters.
Overall, they rank 24th in three-point percentage.
They primarily want to drive to the basket.
With its collective of rim-attackers, Atlanta attempts the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
San Antonio's Perimeter Defenders and Rim Protection
San Antonio has the defensive personnel and the defensive focus against which a team like Atlanta, that primarily wants to score at the basket, will struggle.
The Spurs have strong perimeter defenders against whom it is tough for ball-handlers to drive past.
Jeremy Sochan, for example, has ranked strongly compared to other perimeter defenders in terms of their ability to guard in isolation.
His defensive field goal percentage likewise positions him as a high-level defender.
The latter point observation also applies to center and key rim-protector Victor Wembanyama, who was an All-Defensive First Team selection last year.
With guys like Sochan and Wembanyama, who can contain opposing rim-attackers as they drive to the basket and can protect the rim, San Antonio allows the sixth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
San Antonio's Three-Point-Oriented Attack
San Antonio's offense matches up optimally against Atlanta's defense.
The Spurs primarily want to shoot threes. They attempt the seventh-most three-pointers per game.
They will succeed against an Atlanta team that allows the most made three-pointers per game.
No team is worse at limiting opposing three-point attempts and at limiting opposing open three-point attempts than Atlanta.
Therefore, San Antonio will be very comfortable on offense.
My Favorite Scorer
Among others, look out for the Spurs' shooting guard Devin Vassell.
He is shooting 40 percent from deep this month and is coming off a rare game in which he failed to make a three.
When he last failed to make a three in a game, he made four in his following outing.
Takeaway
The Spurs will score with ease against Atlanta's defense.
Whereas they will thrive in their preferred spaces by making a lot of threes, Atlanta will depend on attacking the basket but will flounder against San Antonio's combination of solid perimeter defense and stout rim protection.
For your prop betting, Vassell makes for a great investment. He is a terrific shooter who, against Atlanta's porous perimeter defense, will both attempt a lot of threes and make a lot of them.
Best Bet: Spurs -1.5 at -115 with BetOnline & Devin Vassell Over 2.5 Three Point Field Goals Made at +144 with BetOnline
