NBA Best Bets for December 12: Miami Is Too Hot for Toronto
Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics
Thursday, December 12, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden
The Spread
As of this morning, Boston is favored by 12.5 points.
This spread is too high. The Celtics should not be favored by this many points.
These two teams have played twice already. Boston won the first meeting, in Detroit, by six and the second meeting, in Boston, by ten.
Detroit's Offense Was Fantastic
In both meetings, the Pistons' offense achieved a high scoring output — 118 points in the game in Detroit and 120 points in the game in Boston.
Several Pistons' scorers displayed their ability to devastate the Celtics' high-ranking defense.
Guard Jaden Ivey, for example, exhibited the superiority of his speed, which helps make him lethal in transition and, in the half-court, enables him to defeat the endeavor of defenders to adjust to his movements.
Detroit's guard play can be even better when Cade Cunningham avoids committing the turnovers that are certainly avoidable for any NBA player.
In the front court, one beneficiary of the strong passing of his teammates has been Jalen Duren, who has proven that he can score a lot and be highly efficient in this matchup.
Duren is one reason why Detroit can score a lot and hang tight in this matchup even when a high-volume shooter like Cunningham underperforms from behind the arc relative to his 39.3-percent season-long three-point conversion rate.
What About Detroit's Defense?
Now, the Pistons did concede a high scoring total in both games.
But there is a key observation to make about Detroit's defensive performance in those games.
Those games took place on the second leg of a back-to-back.
It is physically strenuous for NBA players to play games on consecutive days.
Schedule-makers really did the Pistons dirty by coercing them to play Boston both times in such a spot.
In their first meeting, they traveled home to play Boston one day after competing in Cleveland.
In their second meeting, they traveled to Boston to play the Celtics one day after competing in Detroit.
On the season, back-to-backs have proven difficult for the Pistons.
They are nearly winless on second legs.
In addition to losing twice to the Celtics, they lost by seven to Milwaukee on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Moreover, they lost by ten to lowly Chicago and were blown out by Philadelphia on second legs.
Overall, they are 1-5 on second legs.
If the Pistons had played Boston when they were well-rested, then the spread would still seem too high given the results of their games.
But the spread now seems much too high because the Pistons showed their ability to cover such a large spread even while they were greatly disadvantaged by their schedule.
I argue that well-rested Detroit's defense will be much better in this game.
Detroit's Perimeter Defense
The Pistons are anchored in their interior by athletic shot-blockers.
Their perimeter defense is especially important given Boston's unique proclivity to attempt three-pointers.
Boston attempts the most three-pointers per game and got to play Detroit both times without Detroit's Ausar Thompson.
Thompson is healthy now and will exercise a critical function in this matchup by demonstrating the stoutness of his perimeter defense, which is enhanced by his speed and lengthy wingspan.
His excellence on defense is evident in the fact that the Basketball Index ranked him as the seventh-best perimeter defender in isolation last year.
But his physical qualities also enable him to rotate inside and deter shots at the rim.
His disruptiveness as a defender is well-known, commonly observed, and especially useful in a matchup against a three-point-oriented team like Boston.
Takeaway
Thompson's presence and the fact that Detroit is well-rested for this game will enable them to drastically reduce Boston's point total relative to the first two meetings.
The Pistons' offense will continue to flash its potent guard play and interior presence, which overwhelmed Boston's defense twice despite their tiredness.
Best Bet: Pistons +12.5 at -117 with BetOnline
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat
Thursday, December 12, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center
Sizzling Heat
Miami enters this matchup in great scoring form.
The Heat have scored over 120 points in each of their last three games: they scored 134 against the Lakers, 121 against the Suns, and 122 against the Cavaliers.
All three of those games took place at home, and they will continue to thrive while playing in the same location tonight.
Their triumph over Cleveland is particularly impressive because the Cavaliers rank ninth in defensive rating.
For comparison's sake, Toronto's defense ranks 22nd.
Miami is shooting well, knocking down 16 threes on 43.2-percent three-point shooting against the Cavaliers.
But the Heat also feature the strong inside scoring of guys like Jimmy Butler, who thrived against the Cavaliers despite the well-known quality of their lengthy, athletic, and overall solid rim protectors.
Miami's Advantage on Defense
The Heat will score a lot yet again, but their defense also enjoys a terrific outlook in this matchup.
They are relatively vulnerable to opposing three-point attacks, but Toronto lacks shooters.
Its shooting guard, for example, is an inefficient shooter who prefers to attack the basket.
Overall, the Raptors rank 31st in three-point attempts and 23rd in three-point percentage.
They strongly prefer to attack the basket. Currently, they attempt the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Their offense will struggle mightily against a Heat defense that is even willing to concede three-point attempts in order to prioritize protecting the paint.
Statistically, therefore, the Heat are one of the better teams at limiting field goals within five feet of the basket.
Improving Upon The Last Meeting in Miami
When these two teams played in Miami, the Heat won by ten.
This would make the spread for tonight's game seem fair, but there is a key detail.
In that ten-point win, Scottie Barnes played for Toronto.
Barnes contributed 24 points. He is the team's second-leading scorer, so his absence will be missed by his Raptors teammates.
Without Barnes, Toronto is going to fail to sniff 110 points, whereas Miami will continue to exceed 120 points against Toronto's weak defense..
Best Bet: Heat -10.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics
Thursday, December 12, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden
The Spread
As of this morning, Boston is favored by 12.5 points.
This spread is too high. The Celtics should not be favored by this many points.
These two teams have played twice already. Boston won the first meeting, in Detroit, by six and the second meeting, in Boston, by ten.
Detroit's Offense Was Fantastic
In both meetings, the Pistons' offense achieved a high scoring output — 118 points in the game in Detroit and 120 points in the game in Boston.
Several Pistons' scorers displayed their ability to devastate the Celtics' high-ranking defense.
Guard Jaden Ivey, for example, exhibited the superiority of his speed, which helps make him lethal in transition and, in the half-court, enables him to defeat the endeavor of defenders to adjust to his movements.
Detroit's guard play can be even better when Cade Cunningham avoids committing the turnovers that are certainly avoidable for any NBA player.
In the front court, one beneficiary of the strong passing of his teammates has been Jalen Duren, who has proven that he can score a lot and be highly efficient in this matchup.
Duren is one reason why Detroit can score a lot and hang tight in this matchup even when a high-volume shooter like Cunningham underperforms from behind the arc relative to his 39.3-percent season-long three-point conversion rate.
What About Detroit's Defense?
Now, the Pistons did concede a high scoring total in both games.
But there is a key observation to make about Detroit's defensive performance in those games.
Those games took place on the second leg of a back-to-back.
It is physically strenuous for NBA players to play games on consecutive days.
Schedule-makers really did the Pistons dirty by coercing them to play Boston both times in such a spot.
In their first meeting, they traveled home to play Boston one day after competing in Cleveland.
In their second meeting, they traveled to Boston to play the Celtics one day after competing in Detroit.
On the season, back-to-backs have proven difficult for the Pistons.
They are nearly winless on second legs.
In addition to losing twice to the Celtics, they lost by seven to Milwaukee on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Moreover, they lost by ten to lowly Chicago and were blown out by Philadelphia on second legs.
Overall, they are 1-5 on second legs.
If the Pistons had played Boston when they were well-rested, then the spread would still seem too high given the results of their games.
But the spread now seems much too high because the Pistons showed their ability to cover such a large spread even while they were greatly disadvantaged by their schedule.
I argue that well-rested Detroit's defense will be much better in this game.
Detroit's Perimeter Defense
The Pistons are anchored in their interior by athletic shot-blockers.
Their perimeter defense is especially important given Boston's unique proclivity to attempt three-pointers.
Boston attempts the most three-pointers per game and got to play Detroit both times without Detroit's Ausar Thompson.
Thompson is healthy now and will exercise a critical function in this matchup by demonstrating the stoutness of his perimeter defense, which is enhanced by his speed and lengthy wingspan.
His excellence on defense is evident in the fact that the Basketball Index ranked him as the seventh-best perimeter defender in isolation last year.
But his physical qualities also enable him to rotate inside and deter shots at the rim.
His disruptiveness as a defender is well-known, commonly observed, and especially useful in a matchup against a three-point-oriented team like Boston.
Takeaway
Thompson's presence and the fact that Detroit is well-rested for this game will enable them to drastically reduce Boston's point total relative to the first two meetings.
The Pistons' offense will continue to flash its potent guard play and interior presence, which overwhelmed Boston's defense twice despite their tiredness.
Best Bet: Pistons +12.5 at -117 with BetOnline
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat
Thursday, December 12, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center
Sizzling Heat
Miami enters this matchup in great scoring form.
The Heat have scored over 120 points in each of their last three games: they scored 134 against the Lakers, 121 against the Suns, and 122 against the Cavaliers.
All three of those games took place at home, and they will continue to thrive while playing in the same location tonight.
Their triumph over Cleveland is particularly impressive because the Cavaliers rank ninth in defensive rating.
For comparison's sake, Toronto's defense ranks 22nd.
Miami is shooting well, knocking down 16 threes on 43.2-percent three-point shooting against the Cavaliers.
But the Heat also feature the strong inside scoring of guys like Jimmy Butler, who thrived against the Cavaliers despite the well-known quality of their lengthy, athletic, and overall solid rim protectors.
Miami's Advantage on Defense
The Heat will score a lot yet again, but their defense also enjoys a terrific outlook in this matchup.
They are relatively vulnerable to opposing three-point attacks, but Toronto lacks shooters.
Its shooting guard, for example, is an inefficient shooter who prefers to attack the basket.
Overall, the Raptors rank 31st in three-point attempts and 23rd in three-point percentage.
They strongly prefer to attack the basket. Currently, they attempt the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Their offense will struggle mightily against a Heat defense that is even willing to concede three-point attempts in order to prioritize protecting the paint.
Statistically, therefore, the Heat are one of the better teams at limiting field goals within five feet of the basket.
Improving Upon The Last Meeting in Miami
When these two teams played in Miami, the Heat won by ten.
This would make the spread for tonight's game seem fair, but there is a key detail.
In that ten-point win, Scottie Barnes played for Toronto.
Barnes contributed 24 points. He is the team's second-leading scorer, so his absence will be missed by his Raptors teammates.
Without Barnes, Toronto is going to fail to sniff 110 points, whereas Miami will continue to exceed 120 points against Toronto's weak defense..
Best Bet: Heat -10.5 at -110 with BetOnline
