NBA Best Bets for December 5: The Spurs Are Resilient
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors
Thursday, December 5, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena
Key Trend for the Thunder
Oklahoma City's offensive production always sinks in the game following one in which it scored a lot of points.
The key point total is 130.
In every game following one in which they scored 130 points or more, the Thunder scored 106 or fewer points.
This has happened three times. One of their three opponents was a New Orleans team that ranks 28th in defensive rating.
The fact that New Orleans is so poor defensively legitimizes the trend, because it shows that it is not a consequence of luck.
In other words, this trend does not exist, because the Thunder have happened to face strong defenses after they scored 130 or more points.
We should expect this trend to persist regardless of the defensive quality of OKC's opponent.
Toronto's Defense
Toronto's defense also matches up well against OKC's offense, which helps indicate that the "under" is a strong play even regardless of the let-down spot for the Thunder offense.
On offense, the Thunder primarily want to score from behind the arc and 10-14 feet from the basket.
The Raptors' defense features wings who are at least 6-5. Their length helps them defend the perimeter.
They limit wide-open three-point attempts with the ninth-best frequency because they are good at contesting three-point shots.
As one of the better teams at limiting three-pointers made, the Raptors are primed to limit a Thunder offense that relies on making threes more than most teams.
Moreover, the Raptors allow the third-lowest field goal percentage in the space 10-14 feet from the basket.
Outlook for Toronto's Offense
On offense, Toronto is allergic to attempting threes. It attempts the second-fewest per game.
This is smart of the Raptors because they lack effective shooters.
Primarily, they want to attack the basket. They attempt the most field goals per game within five feet of the hoop.
Such an offense has a negative outlook against a Thunder defense that is dedicated to protecting the paint.
OKC applies aggressive help defense, with guards helping out inside from the perimeter, in order to deter teams from trying to score at the basket.
Within five feet of the basket, the Thunder are the seventh-best team at limiting attempts, the third-best team at limiting makes, and the best team at limiting field goal efficiency.
Takeaway
The heavily favored Thunder are primed to suffer a let-down in their offensive productivity.
However, both teams will be uncomfortable on offense because they will struggle to score in their preferred spaces.
Best Bet: Under 226.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Chicago Bulls vs. San Antonio Spurs
Thursday, December 5, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Frost Bank Center
San Antonio's Strong Spot
San Antonio is in a strong spot tonight because it is coming off a loss.
The Spurs have only failed to bounce back from a loss when they played a team with a very strong record.
On the other hand, they had no problem bouncing back against the losing Jazz, Trail Blazers, and Kings.
Overall, they are 3-0 against teams with a losing record in a game directly following a loss.
Chicago's Poor Spot
On the other side, the Bulls are primed to lose tonight because they are coming off a win.
Whereas the Spurs bounce back from losses, the Bulls fail to string wins together.
Chicago is 1-7 in the game directly following a win.
Its one win came at home against an Orlando team that struggles on the road.
No Victor Wembanyama Tonight
San Antonio has no problem with location tonight: it is 8-4 at home.
The Spurs are favored only by two points because center Victor Wembanyama is absent tonight with a back injury.
I find that oddsmakers are overreacting to Wembanyama's absence because the Spurs are proving that they've figured out how to win without him.
They've won the last two games that he missed.
While beating the Jazz, even without Wembanyama, is not that impressive, it is impressive to deal the Thunder a rare loss.
San Antonio's Stronger Perimeter Defense
This is also not a game in which Wembanyama would be needed, because, as a center, he is at his best around the basket.
Both teams love to attempt three-pointers — Chicago attempts the third-most and San Antonio attempts the fifth-most.
So, this game will be decided by which team has the stronger perimeter defense.
That team is clearly San Antonio.
It ranks ten spots higher than Chicago at limiting opposing three-pointers made.
The Spurs boast strong perimeter defenders like Stephon Castle, who reliably locks down scorers in isolation, and the lengthy and versatile Julian Champagnie.
Hence, they are good at running teams off the three-point line, as evident in the low number of three-point attempts that they allow, and at limiting open three-point attempts.
San Antonio's Shooters
San Antonio is coming off an anomalous nightmare in which its three-point attempts refused to fall.
The Spurs have too many good shooters, such as Devin Vassell with his close-to-50-percent conversion rate, and the normally efficient Champagnie, for such a nightmare to come close to repeating itself.
Tonight presents a great opportunity to expect them to have a much stronger output from behind the arc.
They will be glad to return home tonight where their three-point efficiency is 4.4 percent higher than on the road.
Takeaway
San Antonio is primed to bounce back tonight. It will rely on stronger three-point shooting and its superior perimeter defense to cover the small number.
Best Bet: Spurs -2 at -115 with BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors
Thursday, December 5, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena
Key Trend for the Thunder
Oklahoma City's offensive production always sinks in the game following one in which it scored a lot of points.
The key point total is 130.
In every game following one in which they scored 130 points or more, the Thunder scored 106 or fewer points.
This has happened three times. One of their three opponents was a New Orleans team that ranks 28th in defensive rating.
The fact that New Orleans is so poor defensively legitimizes the trend, because it shows that it is not a consequence of luck.
In other words, this trend does not exist, because the Thunder have happened to face strong defenses after they scored 130 or more points.
We should expect this trend to persist regardless of the defensive quality of OKC's opponent.
Toronto's Defense
Toronto's defense also matches up well against OKC's offense, which helps indicate that the "under" is a strong play even regardless of the let-down spot for the Thunder offense.
On offense, the Thunder primarily want to score from behind the arc and 10-14 feet from the basket.
The Raptors' defense features wings who are at least 6-5. Their length helps them defend the perimeter.
They limit wide-open three-point attempts with the ninth-best frequency because they are good at contesting three-point shots.
As one of the better teams at limiting three-pointers made, the Raptors are primed to limit a Thunder offense that relies on making threes more than most teams.
Moreover, the Raptors allow the third-lowest field goal percentage in the space 10-14 feet from the basket.
Outlook for Toronto's Offense
On offense, Toronto is allergic to attempting threes. It attempts the second-fewest per game.
This is smart of the Raptors because they lack effective shooters.
Primarily, they want to attack the basket. They attempt the most field goals per game within five feet of the hoop.
Such an offense has a negative outlook against a Thunder defense that is dedicated to protecting the paint.
OKC applies aggressive help defense, with guards helping out inside from the perimeter, in order to deter teams from trying to score at the basket.
Within five feet of the basket, the Thunder are the seventh-best team at limiting attempts, the third-best team at limiting makes, and the best team at limiting field goal efficiency.
Takeaway
The heavily favored Thunder are primed to suffer a let-down in their offensive productivity.
However, both teams will be uncomfortable on offense because they will struggle to score in their preferred spaces.
Best Bet: Under 226.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Chicago Bulls vs. San Antonio Spurs
Thursday, December 5, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Frost Bank Center
San Antonio's Strong Spot
San Antonio is in a strong spot tonight because it is coming off a loss.
The Spurs have only failed to bounce back from a loss when they played a team with a very strong record.
On the other hand, they had no problem bouncing back against the losing Jazz, Trail Blazers, and Kings.
Overall, they are 3-0 against teams with a losing record in a game directly following a loss.
Chicago's Poor Spot
On the other side, the Bulls are primed to lose tonight because they are coming off a win.
Whereas the Spurs bounce back from losses, the Bulls fail to string wins together.
Chicago is 1-7 in the game directly following a win.
Its one win came at home against an Orlando team that struggles on the road.
No Victor Wembanyama Tonight
San Antonio has no problem with location tonight: it is 8-4 at home.
The Spurs are favored only by two points because center Victor Wembanyama is absent tonight with a back injury.
I find that oddsmakers are overreacting to Wembanyama's absence because the Spurs are proving that they've figured out how to win without him.
They've won the last two games that he missed.
While beating the Jazz, even without Wembanyama, is not that impressive, it is impressive to deal the Thunder a rare loss.
San Antonio's Stronger Perimeter Defense
This is also not a game in which Wembanyama would be needed, because, as a center, he is at his best around the basket.
Both teams love to attempt three-pointers — Chicago attempts the third-most and San Antonio attempts the fifth-most.
So, this game will be decided by which team has the stronger perimeter defense.
That team is clearly San Antonio.
It ranks ten spots higher than Chicago at limiting opposing three-pointers made.
The Spurs boast strong perimeter defenders like Stephon Castle, who reliably locks down scorers in isolation, and the lengthy and versatile Julian Champagnie.
Hence, they are good at running teams off the three-point line, as evident in the low number of three-point attempts that they allow, and at limiting open three-point attempts.
San Antonio's Shooters
San Antonio is coming off an anomalous nightmare in which its three-point attempts refused to fall.
The Spurs have too many good shooters, such as Devin Vassell with his close-to-50-percent conversion rate, and the normally efficient Champagnie, for such a nightmare to come close to repeating itself.
Tonight presents a great opportunity to expect them to have a much stronger output from behind the arc.
They will be glad to return home tonight where their three-point efficiency is 4.4 percent higher than on the road.
Takeaway
San Antonio is primed to bounce back tonight. It will rely on stronger three-point shooting and its superior perimeter defense to cover the small number.
Best Bet: Spurs -2 at -115 with BetOnline
