NBA Best Bets for October 31: The Favored Jazz Are Must-Fades
Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
The Last Meeting
These two teams played repeatedly last year.
Their last meeting reflects what their games against each other were like when both of Dallas' star scorers, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, were healthy.
In their last game, Dallas won 147-136 in overtime.
Luka scored 37 points. Kyrie scored 48.
It's not like either player performed incredibly from behind the arc — that is, they didn't rely on anomalously hot shooting.
Houston, on the other hand, took the game into overtime merely because it happened to be hot from behind the arc. The Rockets made seventeen threes, shooting well beyond themselves with a 41.5-percent three-point conversion rate.
Will Luka and Kyrie Thrive Again?
I like Dallas to score a lot in this matchup because Luka and Kyrie will prove too much for the Rockets.
The Rockets have faced lesser-talented guards this year and still struggled.
For example, they lost to lowly Charlotte in large part because they conceded 34 points to LaMelo Ball and 24 points to his teammate Tre Mann.
Luka and Kyrie are known as being arguably the hardest guards for defenders to stay in front of.
Will Houston Shoot Well Again From Deep?
I dislike Houston's offense in this matchup because the Rockets like to score inside, but scoring inside is tough against a Mavericks defense that, stylistically, likes to wall off the paint.
Hence, the Mavericks allow the fifth-fewest field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Because they like to play compactly on defense, an offense facing them needs to shoot well from behind the arc.
If you read what Rockets fans commonly say, however, they'll say that they need stronger shooting.
Last year, they ranked 23rd in three-point percentage.
This year, they rank a still mediocre 15th in three-point percentage.
While they seem to have improved, Jalen Green accounts for this appearance of improvement.
He attempts threes at a very high volume and is currently converting them at a high rate.
However, his career three-point percentage is 33.9, so it seems unlikely that he'll continue to shoot so well from deep.
When Green's three-point conversion rate declines, Houston's will as well.
This will prove, once again, to be a poor three-point shooting team that, as such, does not match up well against Dallas' defense.
Takeaway
Dallas will continue to succeed against Houston because it can rely on Kyrie and Luka to have great games offensively.
The Rockets will want to use three-pointers to keep pace, but they can't be expected to shoot well from deep.
Best Bet: Mavericks -6 at -110 with BetOnline
San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 9 p.m. ET at Delta Center
Utah's Offense Is Terrible
I don't understand why Utah is favored.
For a favorite to be worth betting on, one must be able to expect it to score enough points to cover the spread.
But the Jazz are terrible at scoring.
In their last three games, they've scored 86 points against Golden State, 102 points in Dallas, and 96 points against Sacramento.
Overall, they rank dead-last with 102 points per game.
They also rank dead-last in field goal percentage. The second-to-last team is ahead of them by a whole 2.3 percentage points.
Utah's Offense Tonight
Simply put, the Jazz don't do anything well. They are one of the worst teams at scoring around the basket, but they are also one of two teams to convert three-pointers at a rate below 30 percent.
It is anyhow difficult to score inside against San Antonio.
The Spurs have excellent rim protection spearheaded by young sensation Victor Wembanyama.
San Antonio has allowed a high point total one time this season in a game that shows its weakness on defense.
In that one game, the Spurs gave up threes at a high rate to Dallas. In every other game, the Spurs have allowed 106 points or fewer.
Whereas the Mavericks shoot threes well, however, Utah does not.
To make matters worse, Utah's leading scorer is injured. Lauri Markkanen, who is actually Utah's best three-point shooter, is listed as a game-time decision with a back injury.
San Antonio's Inside Attack
Whereas Utah will struggle to sniff 100 points tonight, San Antonio won't have a problem scoring.
The Spurs, led by Wembanyama, who is typically their leading scorer and who characteristically thrives inside the arc, want to attack the basket.
Overall, they make the eighth-most field goals within five feet of the basket
Utah's Lack of Rim Protection
On offense, San Antonio's outlook is solid tonight because the Jazz do a poor job of protecting the rim.
Obviously, they used to have elite rim protector Rudy Gobert but miss him now.
Partly because they miss Gobert, they allow field goals within five feet of the basket at the sixth-highest rate.
They also struggle because of their poor perimeter defense, which allows opposing ball-handlers to attack the paint at will.
Takeaway
Oddsmakers are way off on this game, as they apparently have yet to appreciate just how bad Utah is.
The Jazz can't score. In this game, they also won't get stops.
Best Bet: Spurs ML at +110 with Bovada
Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
The Last Meeting
These two teams played repeatedly last year.
Their last meeting reflects what their games against each other were like when both of Dallas' star scorers, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, were healthy.
In their last game, Dallas won 147-136 in overtime.
Luka scored 37 points. Kyrie scored 48.
It's not like either player performed incredibly from behind the arc — that is, they didn't rely on anomalously hot shooting.
Houston, on the other hand, took the game into overtime merely because it happened to be hot from behind the arc. The Rockets made seventeen threes, shooting well beyond themselves with a 41.5-percent three-point conversion rate.
Will Luka and Kyrie Thrive Again?
I like Dallas to score a lot in this matchup because Luka and Kyrie will prove too much for the Rockets.
The Rockets have faced lesser-talented guards this year and still struggled.
For example, they lost to lowly Charlotte in large part because they conceded 34 points to LaMelo Ball and 24 points to his teammate Tre Mann.
Luka and Kyrie are known as being arguably the hardest guards for defenders to stay in front of.
Will Houston Shoot Well Again From Deep?
I dislike Houston's offense in this matchup because the Rockets like to score inside, but scoring inside is tough against a Mavericks defense that, stylistically, likes to wall off the paint.
Hence, the Mavericks allow the fifth-fewest field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Because they like to play compactly on defense, an offense facing them needs to shoot well from behind the arc.
If you read what Rockets fans commonly say, however, they'll say that they need stronger shooting.
Last year, they ranked 23rd in three-point percentage.
This year, they rank a still mediocre 15th in three-point percentage.
While they seem to have improved, Jalen Green accounts for this appearance of improvement.
He attempts threes at a very high volume and is currently converting them at a high rate.
However, his career three-point percentage is 33.9, so it seems unlikely that he'll continue to shoot so well from deep.
When Green's three-point conversion rate declines, Houston's will as well.
This will prove, once again, to be a poor three-point shooting team that, as such, does not match up well against Dallas' defense.
Takeaway
Dallas will continue to succeed against Houston because it can rely on Kyrie and Luka to have great games offensively.
The Rockets will want to use three-pointers to keep pace, but they can't be expected to shoot well from deep.
Best Bet: Mavericks -6 at -110 with BetOnline
San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 9 p.m. ET at Delta Center
Utah's Offense Is Terrible
I don't understand why Utah is favored.
For a favorite to be worth betting on, one must be able to expect it to score enough points to cover the spread.
But the Jazz are terrible at scoring.
In their last three games, they've scored 86 points against Golden State, 102 points in Dallas, and 96 points against Sacramento.
Overall, they rank dead-last with 102 points per game.
They also rank dead-last in field goal percentage. The second-to-last team is ahead of them by a whole 2.3 percentage points.
Utah's Offense Tonight
Simply put, the Jazz don't do anything well. They are one of the worst teams at scoring around the basket, but they are also one of two teams to convert three-pointers at a rate below 30 percent.
It is anyhow difficult to score inside against San Antonio.
The Spurs have excellent rim protection spearheaded by young sensation Victor Wembanyama.
San Antonio has allowed a high point total one time this season in a game that shows its weakness on defense.
In that one game, the Spurs gave up threes at a high rate to Dallas. In every other game, the Spurs have allowed 106 points or fewer.
Whereas the Mavericks shoot threes well, however, Utah does not.
To make matters worse, Utah's leading scorer is injured. Lauri Markkanen, who is actually Utah's best three-point shooter, is listed as a game-time decision with a back injury.
San Antonio's Inside Attack
Whereas Utah will struggle to sniff 100 points tonight, San Antonio won't have a problem scoring.
The Spurs, led by Wembanyama, who is typically their leading scorer and who characteristically thrives inside the arc, want to attack the basket.
Overall, they make the eighth-most field goals within five feet of the basket
Utah's Lack of Rim Protection
On offense, San Antonio's outlook is solid tonight because the Jazz do a poor job of protecting the rim.
Obviously, they used to have elite rim protector Rudy Gobert but miss him now.
Partly because they miss Gobert, they allow field goals within five feet of the basket at the sixth-highest rate.
They also struggle because of their poor perimeter defense, which allows opposing ball-handlers to attack the paint at will.
Takeaway
Oddsmakers are way off on this game, as they apparently have yet to appreciate just how bad Utah is.
The Jazz can't score. In this game, they also won't get stops.
Best Bet: Spurs ML at +110 with Bovada
