NBA Best Bets for October 24: Minnesota and Sacramento Are in Trouble
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
Considering Last Year's Matchup
My point here is that Dallas matched up well against San Antonio last year and matches up even better against the Spurs this year.
Last season, Dallas beat San Antonio in all four of their matchups.
The margins of victory were: seven points in San Antonio, 25 in Dallas, 23 in Dallas, and six in San Antonio.
This matchup history already indicates that asking Dallas to beat San Antonio by double digits tonight is more than reasonable.
The explanation was clear enough last year.
San Antonio, led by young sensation Victor Wembanyama with his size and hand-eye coordination, was tough to score on at the rim and, as such, matched up well against teams that rely more heavily on attacking the basket.
On the other hand, the Spurs were relatively vulnerable along the perimeter. Teams that shot the three well could take advantage.
The Mavericks, ranking fourth in three-pointers made per game, were such a team. Their ability to score a lot against the Spurs could thus come as no surprise.
A Quibble
One could raise a counterpoint, although the scores of last year's four games already show its limitations.
The counterpoint is that, as different Spurs beat writers point out, San Antonio's vulnerability along the perimeter was largely a consequence of the miscommunications that took place in its ball-screen defense. This is a counterpoint because Dallas rarely made threes off of ball screens.
One could, along this vein, suggest that San Antonio really should match up more effectively against Dallas.
Dallas' Big Addition
But then Dallas added a significant piece in the offseason.
Klay Thompson, now a Maverick, is a career 41.3-percent three-point shooter.
His strength? Coming off screens. Stats show that he is among the NBA's best players at scoring off screens.
Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson form a lethal shooting trio, with all three players having shot over 38 percent from deep last year.
The Spurs gave up an awful 13.3 three-pointers per road game last year and now face the NBA's best playmakers and dangerous three-point shooters.
San Antonio's Three-Point Shooting
Last year, San Antonio averaged an awful twelve threes per road game.
Their top scorers, including their leading one Wembanyama, were typically inefficient from behind the arc.
One exception was Devin Vassell.
Vassell, however, is currently injured and will not play.
He was San Antonio's second-leading scorer last year in large part due to his three-point shooting efficiency.
His replacement is Stephon Castle, who shot an atrocious 26 percent from behind the arc last year.
In Vassell, the Spurs lose a valuable piece, although they were already weak from behind the arc.
Why This Matters
San Antonio's poor three-point shooting outlook matters because it will be reliant on scoring inside the arc.
Dallas, however, is toughest to score on inside.
You may recall that in the postseason, Anthony Edwards-led Minnesota really struggled to score on the Mavericks because Edwards is the sort of player who primarily wants to drive to the basket.
The Mavericks were one of the best teams at limiting field goals within five feet of the basket but lost four out of five times in the NBA Finals to a Boston team that primarily wants to shoot the three.
San Antonio is, in terms of what it wants to do offensively, similar to Minnesota and suffers therefore a negative offensive outlook against the Mavericks.
Takeaway
This matchup favors Dallas: the Mavericks will be comfortable scoring given San Antonio's weak perimeter defense; they will also be effective on defense against a team like San Antonio that can't beat them from behind the arc.
Best Bet: Mavericks -8.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Sacramento Kings
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
Continuing to Dislike Minnesota's Offense
It is easy to overreact to the first game of the season.
I did predict that the Lakers would beat the Timberwolves. Let's continue to appreciate what Minnesota can do defensively — defense is Minnesota's calling card; the Timberwolves allowed the fewest points per game last year — even though their effort was frequently disappointing.
However, Minnesota's inability to exceed 103 points on Tuesday does not represent a sort of deficiency that it can fix with effort.
It represents a kind of deficiency that will continue because it is rooted in inalterable characteristics of the players.
Acquiring Julius Randle was a horrible move for Minnesota because he is primarily a post-up player, whereas Karl-Anthony Towns was comfortable and effective shooting from behind the arc, where he commanded the defense's respect and attention.
Minnesota's offense revolves primarily around Anthony Edwards. Edwards mainly wants to drive inside the arc.
The problem is that Randle's inside-oriented presence, alongside that of center Rudy Gobert, creates a spacing problem whereby the paint is clogged and Edwards lacks the driving room that he wants to have.
Sacramento's Offense Has A Similar Problem
Sacramento committed a similar sort of error.
It dealt away Harrison Barnes, who was a viable floor-spacer with his efficient three-point shooting, and acquired DeMar DeRozan who is known for his mid-range prowess.
DeRozan's mid-range game will induce the defense to collapse on him. His presence creates a spacing problem whereby congestion inside the arc takes shape.
Bad spacing will entail bad offense.
Sacramento's Awful Shooting
Even when Kings players do on occasion find the space for open three-point shots, their form is terrible.
Their three-point shooting was highly inefficient in the preseason.
While it is easy to dismiss what happens in preseason, there is a real problem. The Kings characteristically like to run, but their legs need time to catch up with their pace.
When players run, their legs get tired, which makes them shoot poorly. It will take time for Kings players to shoot well because that involves acclimating themselves to their pace.
Takeaway
This will be an ugly game in which both teams feature a new player who does not fit in well with his new teammates.
Both new players, Randle for Minnesota and DeRozan for Sacramento, create spacing problems that compound the inevitable lack of chemistry between them as newcomers and their respective teammates.
Minnesota's characteristically strong defense and Sacramento's poor shooting reinforce my feeling that the total for this game is much too high.
Best Bet: Under 226.5 at -110 with BetOnline
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
Considering Last Year's Matchup
My point here is that Dallas matched up well against San Antonio last year and matches up even better against the Spurs this year.
Last season, Dallas beat San Antonio in all four of their matchups.
The margins of victory were: seven points in San Antonio, 25 in Dallas, 23 in Dallas, and six in San Antonio.
This matchup history already indicates that asking Dallas to beat San Antonio by double digits tonight is more than reasonable.
The explanation was clear enough last year.
San Antonio, led by young sensation Victor Wembanyama with his size and hand-eye coordination, was tough to score on at the rim and, as such, matched up well against teams that rely more heavily on attacking the basket.
On the other hand, the Spurs were relatively vulnerable along the perimeter. Teams that shot the three well could take advantage.
The Mavericks, ranking fourth in three-pointers made per game, were such a team. Their ability to score a lot against the Spurs could thus come as no surprise.
A Quibble
One could raise a counterpoint, although the scores of last year's four games already show its limitations.
The counterpoint is that, as different Spurs beat writers point out, San Antonio's vulnerability along the perimeter was largely a consequence of the miscommunications that took place in its ball-screen defense. This is a counterpoint because Dallas rarely made threes off of ball screens.
One could, along this vein, suggest that San Antonio really should match up more effectively against Dallas.
Dallas' Big Addition
But then Dallas added a significant piece in the offseason.
Klay Thompson, now a Maverick, is a career 41.3-percent three-point shooter.
His strength? Coming off screens. Stats show that he is among the NBA's best players at scoring off screens.
Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson form a lethal shooting trio, with all three players having shot over 38 percent from deep last year.
The Spurs gave up an awful 13.3 three-pointers per road game last year and now face the NBA's best playmakers and dangerous three-point shooters.
San Antonio's Three-Point Shooting
Last year, San Antonio averaged an awful twelve threes per road game.
Their top scorers, including their leading one Wembanyama, were typically inefficient from behind the arc.
One exception was Devin Vassell.
Vassell, however, is currently injured and will not play.
He was San Antonio's second-leading scorer last year in large part due to his three-point shooting efficiency.
His replacement is Stephon Castle, who shot an atrocious 26 percent from behind the arc last year.
In Vassell, the Spurs lose a valuable piece, although they were already weak from behind the arc.
Why This Matters
San Antonio's poor three-point shooting outlook matters because it will be reliant on scoring inside the arc.
Dallas, however, is toughest to score on inside.
You may recall that in the postseason, Anthony Edwards-led Minnesota really struggled to score on the Mavericks because Edwards is the sort of player who primarily wants to drive to the basket.
The Mavericks were one of the best teams at limiting field goals within five feet of the basket but lost four out of five times in the NBA Finals to a Boston team that primarily wants to shoot the three.
San Antonio is, in terms of what it wants to do offensively, similar to Minnesota and suffers therefore a negative offensive outlook against the Mavericks.
Takeaway
This matchup favors Dallas: the Mavericks will be comfortable scoring given San Antonio's weak perimeter defense; they will also be effective on defense against a team like San Antonio that can't beat them from behind the arc.
Best Bet: Mavericks -8.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Sacramento Kings
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center
Continuing to Dislike Minnesota's Offense
It is easy to overreact to the first game of the season.
I did predict that the Lakers would beat the Timberwolves. Let's continue to appreciate what Minnesota can do defensively — defense is Minnesota's calling card; the Timberwolves allowed the fewest points per game last year — even though their effort was frequently disappointing.
However, Minnesota's inability to exceed 103 points on Tuesday does not represent a sort of deficiency that it can fix with effort.
It represents a kind of deficiency that will continue because it is rooted in inalterable characteristics of the players.
Acquiring Julius Randle was a horrible move for Minnesota because he is primarily a post-up player, whereas Karl-Anthony Towns was comfortable and effective shooting from behind the arc, where he commanded the defense's respect and attention.
Minnesota's offense revolves primarily around Anthony Edwards. Edwards mainly wants to drive inside the arc.
The problem is that Randle's inside-oriented presence, alongside that of center Rudy Gobert, creates a spacing problem whereby the paint is clogged and Edwards lacks the driving room that he wants to have.
Sacramento's Offense Has A Similar Problem
Sacramento committed a similar sort of error.
It dealt away Harrison Barnes, who was a viable floor-spacer with his efficient three-point shooting, and acquired DeMar DeRozan who is known for his mid-range prowess.
DeRozan's mid-range game will induce the defense to collapse on him. His presence creates a spacing problem whereby congestion inside the arc takes shape.
Bad spacing will entail bad offense.
Sacramento's Awful Shooting
Even when Kings players do on occasion find the space for open three-point shots, their form is terrible.
Their three-point shooting was highly inefficient in the preseason.
While it is easy to dismiss what happens in preseason, there is a real problem. The Kings characteristically like to run, but their legs need time to catch up with their pace.
When players run, their legs get tired, which makes them shoot poorly. It will take time for Kings players to shoot well because that involves acclimating themselves to their pace.
Takeaway
This will be an ugly game in which both teams feature a new player who does not fit in well with his new teammates.
Both new players, Randle for Minnesota and DeRozan for Sacramento, create spacing problems that compound the inevitable lack of chemistry between them as newcomers and their respective teammates.
Minnesota's characteristically strong defense and Sacramento's poor shooting reinforce my feeling that the total for this game is much too high.
Best Bet: Under 226.5 at -110 with BetOnline
