3-Pack Mixed August 17: 1 Side, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Who Starts for Boston?
The Red Sox start Chris Sale tonight.
Sale's ERA creates a misleadingly negative perception of him,
His ERA still suffers for the awful starts that he had way back in April.
Moreover, his 3.69 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reveals that, even accounting for the entire season, he has performed much better than his ERA suggests.
Most importantly, Sale has been pitching much better for a while now.
Sale enters tonight's game having allowed two runs or one run in each of his last five starts.
Impressively, he has sustained this trend even against tough matchups.
For example, he victimized a Reds lineup that ranks eighth in runs per game.
He also locked down the Padres, who rank fourth in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
While those starts took place in June and May, respectively, he resumed his strong form on August 11 by holding Detroit to one hit in 4.2 innings while doing a great job of inducing soft contact.
Who Starts for Washington?
Patrick Corbin starts for the Nationals tonight.
Corbin was improbably fortunate in his last start.
While he allowed zero earned runs, he benefited from yielding a .071 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) while doing an awful job both of inducing soft contact and of minimizing hard contact.
Evidence that his current form is awful lies in the fact that he has now yielded an FIP of over 6.50 in three straight starts.
Since the end of July, he has even struggled against soft matchups like Colorado outside of Denver.
Best Bet: Red Sox RL at -120 with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Who Starts for Seattle?
George Kirby starts for the Mariners today.
Kirby enters today's game in strong form, having allowed one run or zero runs in each of his last three starts.
Impressively, these starts took place against the Angels, Red Sox, and Orioles.
All three of his victims rank top-10 in runs per game.
His current success, therefore, is not a product of weak competition but an indication of how reliable he is.
He is also thriving in several other respects.
For example, he is limiting hits. He allowed no more than four hits in any of these three starts, despite the fact that he's lasted as many as nine innings.
Moreover, he is limiting walks and home runs, which helps explain how he still thrives when he's not amassing strikeouts.
Kirby's Arsenal
Primarily, in descending order of frequency, Kirby throws a fastball, sinker, slider, and curveball.
These pitches, together, make up about 94 percent of his arsenal.
Kirby's pitches are strong in different ways.
For example, his fastball boasts powerful velocity, averaging 96.1 mph.
His slider is unique in its combination of vertical and horizontal movement, which helps explain why he induces batters to chase his pitches at a high rate.
Kansas City's Lineup
Kirby's outlook is especially strong tonight because he faces a soft test.
The Royals match up poorly against him, ranking 26th with a .397 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Among active KC batters, only Matt Duffy has faced Kirby.
Duffy is 0-for-5 against him.
Best Bet: George Kirby under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with Bovada
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Adam Wainwright starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Wainwright is the biggest reason why both the Mets and the "over" will hit.
He reliably allows opponents to be very productive against him.
This is evident in his last two starts, in both of which he suffered against low-ranking competition.
Two starts ago, he allowed seven earned runs in three innings to Colorado in St. Louis.
Most recently, the Royals amassed eight earned runs in one inning against him.
Wainwright's awfulness is also simply evident in his 8.78 ERA.
More than any other statistic, this suggests that he is washed-up and needing to retire.
Once a prominent pitcher, he is suffering the worst season of his career.
When he is pitching, one must fade St. Louis without hesitation.
His team will reevaluate his role after tonight's start, so bettors might not get many more chances to fade the 41-year-old.
Who Starts for the Mets?
New York starts Jose Quintana tonight.
Because he began his season on July 26, he has made five starts.
In four of them, he allowed two earned runs or fewer, while he allowed three earned runs in the one exception.
Clearly, New York has the starting pitcher edge tonight with Quintana.
He has proven his quality perhaps most clearly by limiting mighty Atlanta to one run in six innings.
Conclusions
The "over" will hit because of Wainwright.
St. Louis also has the tenth-worst bullpen in baseball in terms of ERA.
While New York's is slightly worse, Quintana will last longer than Wainwright and be a lot better.
Best Bet: Parlay Mets ML at -117 & over 10.5 at -104 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
- Chris Sale has been good again for a while now
- Patrick Corbin suffers poor form
- Corbin is struggling even against soft competition
Who Starts for Boston?
The Red Sox start Chris Sale tonight.
Sale's ERA creates a misleadingly negative perception of him,
His ERA still suffers for the awful starts that he had way back in April.
Moreover, his 3.69 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reveals that, even accounting for the entire season, he has performed much better than his ERA suggests.
Most importantly, Sale has been pitching much better for a while now.
Sale enters tonight's game having allowed two runs or one run in each of his last five starts.
Impressively, he has sustained this trend even against tough matchups.
For example, he victimized a Reds lineup that ranks eighth in runs per game.
He also locked down the Padres, who rank fourth in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
While those starts took place in June and May, respectively, he resumed his strong form on August 11 by holding Detroit to one hit in 4.2 innings while doing a great job of inducing soft contact.
Who Starts for Washington?
Patrick Corbin starts for the Nationals tonight.
Corbin was improbably fortunate in his last start.
While he allowed zero earned runs, he benefited from yielding a .071 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) while doing an awful job both of inducing soft contact and of minimizing hard contact.
Evidence that his current form is awful lies in the fact that he has now yielded an FIP of over 6.50 in three straight starts.
Since the end of July, he has even struggled against soft matchups like Colorado outside of Denver.
Best Bet: Red Sox RL at -120 with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
- George Kirby enjoys strong form
- Kirby's pitches boast many good qualities
- The Royals match up poorly against Kirby
Who Starts for Seattle?
George Kirby starts for the Mariners today.
Kirby enters today's game in strong form, having allowed one run or zero runs in each of his last three starts.
Impressively, these starts took place against the Angels, Red Sox, and Orioles.
All three of his victims rank top-10 in runs per game.
His current success, therefore, is not a product of weak competition but an indication of how reliable he is.
He is also thriving in several other respects.
For example, he is limiting hits. He allowed no more than four hits in any of these three starts, despite the fact that he's lasted as many as nine innings.
Moreover, he is limiting walks and home runs, which helps explain how he still thrives when he's not amassing strikeouts.
Kirby's Arsenal
Primarily, in descending order of frequency, Kirby throws a fastball, sinker, slider, and curveball.
These pitches, together, make up about 94 percent of his arsenal.
Kirby's pitches are strong in different ways.
For example, his fastball boasts powerful velocity, averaging 96.1 mph.
His slider is unique in its combination of vertical and horizontal movement, which helps explain why he induces batters to chase his pitches at a high rate.
Kansas City's Lineup
Kirby's outlook is especially strong tonight because he faces a soft test.
The Royals match up poorly against him, ranking 26th with a .397 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Among active KC batters, only Matt Duffy has faced Kirby.
Duffy is 0-for-5 against him.
Best Bet: George Kirby under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with Bovada
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
- Adam Wainwright is consistently awful and washed-up
- Jose Quintana is succeeding even against tough competition
- While both bullpens are poor, the Mets have the starting pitcher edge.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Adam Wainwright starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Wainwright is the biggest reason why both the Mets and the "over" will hit.
He reliably allows opponents to be very productive against him.
This is evident in his last two starts, in both of which he suffered against low-ranking competition.
Two starts ago, he allowed seven earned runs in three innings to Colorado in St. Louis.
Most recently, the Royals amassed eight earned runs in one inning against him.
Wainwright's awfulness is also simply evident in his 8.78 ERA.
More than any other statistic, this suggests that he is washed-up and needing to retire.
Once a prominent pitcher, he is suffering the worst season of his career.
When he is pitching, one must fade St. Louis without hesitation.
His team will reevaluate his role after tonight's start, so bettors might not get many more chances to fade the 41-year-old.
Who Starts for the Mets?
New York starts Jose Quintana tonight.
Because he began his season on July 26, he has made five starts.
In four of them, he allowed two earned runs or fewer, while he allowed three earned runs in the one exception.
Clearly, New York has the starting pitcher edge tonight with Quintana.
He has proven his quality perhaps most clearly by limiting mighty Atlanta to one run in six innings.
Conclusions
The "over" will hit because of Wainwright.
St. Louis also has the tenth-worst bullpen in baseball in terms of ERA.
While New York's is slightly worse, Quintana will last longer than Wainwright and be a lot better.
Best Bet: Parlay Mets ML at -117 & over 10.5 at -104 at +264 odds with BetOnline
