3-Pack Mixed August 10: 1 Side, 1 Prop, and 1 Parlay
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, August 10, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Louis
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Matthew Liberatore starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Especially against lineups with a pulse, Liberatore is worth fading because his foothold in professional baseball is tenuous.
The fact that he is, at best, a fringe-professional pitcher is evident in his 6.93 ERA.
It's also evident in his most recent starts: before allowing five earned runs in 5.2 innings to Minnesota, he allowed four earned runs in 0.1 innings in Miami.
Liberatore hands out a lot of cheap gifts in the form of walks.
Liberatore's Arsenal
But Liberatore has more significant problems with his arsenal.
He throws a fastball, curveball, sinker, slider, and changeup.
As heat maps show, he has an awful tendency to leave pitches in the middle parts of the plate where batters tend to do greater damage.
Tampa Bay has the advantage of already being intimately familiar with Liberatore, who used to be a Ray.
Tampa Bay's Pitching Edge
The Rays have a twofold pitching edge.
One, they start Zack Littell.
Littell enters today's game in strong form, having allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last two starts, which took place in Houston and Detroit, respectively.
Two, they have a much stronger bullpen.
St. Louis's owns the eighth-worst bullpen in terms of ERA, whereas Tampa Bay has one of baseball's better bullpens.
Key Trends
After yesterday's Cardinals' victory, this is just the spot in which to expect a Rays win.
St. Louis is 0-6 in its last six games following a win.
Conversely, the Rays are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss.
Best Bet: Rays RL at +113 with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, August 10, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for Colorado?
Ty Blach starts for the Rockies today.
Once again Blach, in his last start, showed his true colors: he allowed eight hits and four earned runs in 4.2. innings to St. Louis.
It is clear that his recent strong starts before his last were the product of soft competition: he had succeeded against A's and Marlins lineup that rank bottom-five in runs per game.
His failure against St. Louis shows again that lineups with a pulse reliably thrive against him.
Because the Dodgers' lineup has more than just a pulse, it will score a lot of runs today, which means that individual Dodgers batters will accrue many at-bats and thus get more chances to achieve their hitter props.
Blach's Arsenal
Blach throws a sinker, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
He throws his sinker more than half the time.
This pitch lacks quality but he also doesn't have alternatives.
His sinker suffers from average and unimpressive movement and from a tendency to land in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
While his changeup and curveball also yield high slugging rates, his cutter is the most vulnerable.
Opponents slug .632 against his cutter.
Mookie Betts
My favorite Dodgers batter to invest in tonight is Mookie Betts.
Betts is having an amazing August: in this month, he's batting .342 and slugging .763.
His outlook tonight is especially positive because he matches up superbly against Blach.
He is 16-for-49 with a .796 slugging rate against Blach's pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Mookie Betts Total Bases over
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Thursday, August 10, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Who Starts for Boston?
The Red Sox start James Paxton tonight.
Paxton is in a great spot because he's coming off a bad start and he reliably bounces back.
He yielded an ERA over 4.00 in three starts before his last one.
In each of the starts that directly followed such an outing, he allowed two earned runs or fewer.
A similar trend applies to the start directly following one in which he collected a loss.
Paxton's Arsenal
Paxton's repertoire makes him reliable in general.
In descending order of frequency, he throws a fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup.
His fastball, for example, is difficult to hit because it enjoys relatively strong horizontal movement.
Moreover, he ably distributes it along different parts of the strike zone.
But his second- and third-most frequent pitches are his most effective ones: opponents slug .385 and .216 against them, respectively.
Who Starts for the Royals
Alec Marsh starts for Kansas City tonight.
Marsh reliably allows opponents to be productive.
This is evident in his most recent starts: in his last 11.2 innings as a starter, he's allowed twelve earned runs.
Marsh's Arsenal
Marsh throws a fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball.
He lacks a pitch that he can really rely on.
Opponents slug .488 against his fastball, .533 against his slider, .864 against his changeup, and .600 against his curveball.
Boston's Lineup
Boston's hitting outlook is strong because it ranks sixth with a .435 slugging rate against Marsh's pitches from righties.
However, Boston's consistent struggle lately to score more than a few runs per game ensures that the game will stay "under."
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox ML at -227 & under 10.5 at +100 at +188 with BetOnliine
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, August 10, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Louis
- Matthew Liberatore reliably struggles against lineups with at least a pulse
- Tampa Bay has the edge both in its starting pitching and in its bullpen
- Key trends foretell a Rays win
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Matthew Liberatore starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Especially against lineups with a pulse, Liberatore is worth fading because his foothold in professional baseball is tenuous.
The fact that he is, at best, a fringe-professional pitcher is evident in his 6.93 ERA.
It's also evident in his most recent starts: before allowing five earned runs in 5.2 innings to Minnesota, he allowed four earned runs in 0.1 innings in Miami.
Liberatore hands out a lot of cheap gifts in the form of walks.
Liberatore's Arsenal
But Liberatore has more significant problems with his arsenal.
He throws a fastball, curveball, sinker, slider, and changeup.
As heat maps show, he has an awful tendency to leave pitches in the middle parts of the plate where batters tend to do greater damage.
Tampa Bay has the advantage of already being intimately familiar with Liberatore, who used to be a Ray.
Tampa Bay's Pitching Edge
The Rays have a twofold pitching edge.
One, they start Zack Littell.
Littell enters today's game in strong form, having allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last two starts, which took place in Houston and Detroit, respectively.
Two, they have a much stronger bullpen.
St. Louis's owns the eighth-worst bullpen in terms of ERA, whereas Tampa Bay has one of baseball's better bullpens.
Key Trends
After yesterday's Cardinals' victory, this is just the spot in which to expect a Rays win.
St. Louis is 0-6 in its last six games following a win.
Conversely, the Rays are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss.
Best Bet: Rays RL at +113 with BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, August 10, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
- Ty Blach reliably struggles against quality lineups
- Mookie Betts is enjoying a tremendous August
- Betts matches up well against Betts
Who Starts for Colorado?
Ty Blach starts for the Rockies today.
Once again Blach, in his last start, showed his true colors: he allowed eight hits and four earned runs in 4.2. innings to St. Louis.
It is clear that his recent strong starts before his last were the product of soft competition: he had succeeded against A's and Marlins lineup that rank bottom-five in runs per game.
His failure against St. Louis shows again that lineups with a pulse reliably thrive against him.
Because the Dodgers' lineup has more than just a pulse, it will score a lot of runs today, which means that individual Dodgers batters will accrue many at-bats and thus get more chances to achieve their hitter props.
Blach's Arsenal
Blach throws a sinker, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
He throws his sinker more than half the time.
This pitch lacks quality but he also doesn't have alternatives.
His sinker suffers from average and unimpressive movement and from a tendency to land in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
While his changeup and curveball also yield high slugging rates, his cutter is the most vulnerable.
Opponents slug .632 against his cutter.
Mookie Betts
My favorite Dodgers batter to invest in tonight is Mookie Betts.
Betts is having an amazing August: in this month, he's batting .342 and slugging .763.
His outlook tonight is especially positive because he matches up superbly against Blach.
He is 16-for-49 with a .796 slugging rate against Blach's pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Mookie Betts Total Bases over
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Thursday, August 10, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
- James Paxton is in a good bounce-back spot
- The Red Sox match up well against Kansas City's low-quality starter
- Boston's cold hitting form will keep the game under the posted total
Who Starts for Boston?
The Red Sox start James Paxton tonight.
Paxton is in a great spot because he's coming off a bad start and he reliably bounces back.
He yielded an ERA over 4.00 in three starts before his last one.
In each of the starts that directly followed such an outing, he allowed two earned runs or fewer.
A similar trend applies to the start directly following one in which he collected a loss.
Paxton's Arsenal
Paxton's repertoire makes him reliable in general.
In descending order of frequency, he throws a fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup.
His fastball, for example, is difficult to hit because it enjoys relatively strong horizontal movement.
Moreover, he ably distributes it along different parts of the strike zone.
But his second- and third-most frequent pitches are his most effective ones: opponents slug .385 and .216 against them, respectively.
Who Starts for the Royals
Alec Marsh starts for Kansas City tonight.
Marsh reliably allows opponents to be productive.
This is evident in his most recent starts: in his last 11.2 innings as a starter, he's allowed twelve earned runs.
Marsh's Arsenal
Marsh throws a fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball.
He lacks a pitch that he can really rely on.
Opponents slug .488 against his fastball, .533 against his slider, .864 against his changeup, and .600 against his curveball.
Boston's Lineup
Boston's hitting outlook is strong because it ranks sixth with a .435 slugging rate against Marsh's pitches from righties.
However, Boston's consistent struggle lately to score more than a few runs per game ensures that the game will stay "under."
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox ML at -227 & under 10.5 at +100 at +188 with BetOnliine
