3-Pack Mixed August 3: Twins Enjoy Strong Pitching Advantage Today
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Who Starts for the Reds?
Luke Weaver starts for the Reds tonight.
Weaver's last start creates a misleadingly positive impression of him.
While he only allowed one earned run, he surrendered two home runs and benefitted from yielding an absurd .000 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing even more hard contact than he normally does.
His 7.94 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how poorly he performed.
This poor performance is consistent with his play before.
He's yielded an FIP over 6.70 in four straight starts.
This four-start stretch is particularly concerning because he's struggled against low-ranking lineups like Milwaukee's, which ranks 23rd in runs per game.
Weaver vs. Cubs Batters
Weaver throws a fastball, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
One should expect him to perform poorly, because he lacks a single pitch that he can rely on.
Opponents slug .603 against his fastball, .558 against his changeup, .581 against his cutter, and .545 against his curveball.
The sheer facts that the Cubs have a strong lineup, ranking fifth in runs per game, and enjoy strong form, having scored 36 runs in their last two games, are enough to know.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Jameson Taillon starts for Chicago tonight.
He has apparently figured things out: he's allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
Lineups that matches up well against his pitches still struggled to hit him.
Best Bet: Cubs RL at +117 with BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for Oakland?
The A's start JP Sears tonight.
Sears' last start makes it seem like he's worth trusting, but this is not the case.
While he allowed one run, he benefitted from yielding a .231 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that was fortunately low given that he did not induce any soft contact.
His 5.07 FIP in that start reflects how poorly he actually performed.
He has now yielded an FIP over 5.00 in three straight starts, which is consistent with his season-long struggles.
Sears is still a pitcher who bettors should look to go against.
Sears' Arsenal
This is also the case in view of his pitching arsenal.
He relies heavily on a low-quality fastball that ranks in the 40th percentile in velocity and in the 23rd percentile in spin.
Freddie Freeman
My favorite Dodgers batter to invest in is Freddie Freeman.
He is consistent, making him reliable no matter who's pitching. He has at least one hit in ten of his last eleven games.
More recently, Freeman enjoys tremendous form: in his last three games, he's 9-for-12 with three doubles.
Freeman also matches up excellently against Sears.
Against Sears' pitches from lefties, Freeman is 27-for-81 with a .753 slugging rate.
Best Bet: Freddie Freeman over total bases
Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Sonny Gray starts for the Twins today.
While Gray has enjoyed a superb season, as evident in a career-best 2.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), he is enduring a relatively rough stretch. He is not at his best right now.
In his last four starts, he's averaging four earned runs allowed.
Gray's Arsenal
Gray throws a fastball, curveball, sweeper, sinker, cutter, and changeup.
The Cardinals are primed to approach their seven-run output from last night because they match up well against Gray.
They rank ninth with a .437 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Granted, tonight's test will be tougher for the Cardinals lineup: Gray's arsenal is solid, as evident in the high spin in his fastball, the powerful movement of his cutter, among other things.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Matthew Liberatore starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Liberatore is an auto-fade because he can barely be called a professional pitcher.
He bounces around between Triple-A and the MLB.
His current placement in the Cardinals' starting rotation owes to the departure of two starting pitchers.
This is to say that he's only pitching out of necessity tonight.
Liberatore's Struggles
In his last two pro outings, Liberatore has allowed a combined total of seven earned runs in 4.2 innings.
He yields a lot of hard contact while struggling to induce soft contact.
Opposing batters rarely strike out.
His struggles are unsurprising in view of the lack of quality of his pitching arsenal.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His pitches are not good enough to survive their poor placement.
For example, his fastball's movement is average and this pitch places in the 13th percentile in spin.
Conclusions
Both teams will score plenty of runs -- Gray's form is poor and Liberatore is simply an awful pitcher.
The Twins will do more damage, though.
In addition to their starting pitcher advantage, they also own the better bullpen.
Minnesota's bullpen ERA is .67 better than St. Louis's.
Plus, the Cardinals dealt away Jordan Hicks, one of their most talented relievers.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins ML at -136 & Over 9 at -110 at +231 odds with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Who Starts for the Reds?
Luke Weaver starts for the Reds tonight.
Weaver's last start creates a misleadingly positive impression of him.
While he only allowed one earned run, he surrendered two home runs and benefitted from yielding an absurd .000 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing even more hard contact than he normally does.
His 7.94 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how poorly he performed.
This poor performance is consistent with his play before.
He's yielded an FIP over 6.70 in four straight starts.
This four-start stretch is particularly concerning because he's struggled against low-ranking lineups like Milwaukee's, which ranks 23rd in runs per game.
Weaver vs. Cubs Batters
Weaver throws a fastball, changeup, cutter, and curveball.
One should expect him to perform poorly, because he lacks a single pitch that he can rely on.
Opponents slug .603 against his fastball, .558 against his changeup, .581 against his cutter, and .545 against his curveball.
The sheer facts that the Cubs have a strong lineup, ranking fifth in runs per game, and enjoy strong form, having scored 36 runs in their last two games, are enough to know.
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Jameson Taillon starts for Chicago tonight.
He has apparently figured things out: he's allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
Lineups that matches up well against his pitches still struggled to hit him.
Best Bet: Cubs RL at +117 with BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for Oakland?
The A's start JP Sears tonight.
Sears' last start makes it seem like he's worth trusting, but this is not the case.
While he allowed one run, he benefitted from yielding a .231 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that was fortunately low given that he did not induce any soft contact.
His 5.07 FIP in that start reflects how poorly he actually performed.
He has now yielded an FIP over 5.00 in three straight starts, which is consistent with his season-long struggles.
Sears is still a pitcher who bettors should look to go against.
Sears' Arsenal
This is also the case in view of his pitching arsenal.
He relies heavily on a low-quality fastball that ranks in the 40th percentile in velocity and in the 23rd percentile in spin.
Freddie Freeman
My favorite Dodgers batter to invest in is Freddie Freeman.
He is consistent, making him reliable no matter who's pitching. He has at least one hit in ten of his last eleven games.
More recently, Freeman enjoys tremendous form: in his last three games, he's 9-for-12 with three doubles.
Freeman also matches up excellently against Sears.
Against Sears' pitches from lefties, Freeman is 27-for-81 with a .753 slugging rate.
Best Bet: Freddie Freeman over total bases
Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Sonny Gray starts for the Twins today.
While Gray has enjoyed a superb season, as evident in a career-best 2.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), he is enduring a relatively rough stretch. He is not at his best right now.
In his last four starts, he's averaging four earned runs allowed.
Gray's Arsenal
Gray throws a fastball, curveball, sweeper, sinker, cutter, and changeup.
The Cardinals are primed to approach their seven-run output from last night because they match up well against Gray.
They rank ninth with a .437 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Granted, tonight's test will be tougher for the Cardinals lineup: Gray's arsenal is solid, as evident in the high spin in his fastball, the powerful movement of his cutter, among other things.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Matthew Liberatore starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Liberatore is an auto-fade because he can barely be called a professional pitcher.
He bounces around between Triple-A and the MLB.
His current placement in the Cardinals' starting rotation owes to the departure of two starting pitchers.
This is to say that he's only pitching out of necessity tonight.
Liberatore's Struggles
In his last two pro outings, Liberatore has allowed a combined total of seven earned runs in 4.2 innings.
He yields a lot of hard contact while struggling to induce soft contact.
Opposing batters rarely strike out.
His struggles are unsurprising in view of the lack of quality of his pitching arsenal.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His pitches are not good enough to survive their poor placement.
For example, his fastball's movement is average and this pitch places in the 13th percentile in spin.
Conclusions
Both teams will score plenty of runs -- Gray's form is poor and Liberatore is simply an awful pitcher.
The Twins will do more damage, though.
In addition to their starting pitcher advantage, they also own the better bullpen.
Minnesota's bullpen ERA is .67 better than St. Louis's.
Plus, the Cardinals dealt away Jordan Hicks, one of their most talented relievers.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins ML at -136 & Over 9 at -110 at +231 odds with BetOnline
