Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 17
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, June 17, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
The Odds
Sports betting sites opened Milwaukee as 3.5-point favorites. Last night, the line was quickly bet up to 5.5.
This is the most points that the Nets have been dogged by since April 14, when they traveled to Philadelphia without Kevin Durant or James Harden and were dogged by 9.5 points.
Obviously, the absence of Kyrie Irving contributes to the spread. James Harden's hamstring injury does as well.
It is true that Harden played 46 minutes in Game 5 and will be available for tonight's game, according to head coach Steve Nash.
But, while he did make a positive contribution to Brooklyn's Game 5 triumph, Harden is clearly not himself. He lacks the confidence in his hamstring to be explosive at all. His lateral movement is also restricted.
Milwaukee is receiving the betting support that it is for an additional reason that I find unjustified.
A lot of bettors seem to take for granted that this series will progress towards a Game 7.
The reasoning for this expectation is that Brooklyn has injured players who would benefit from being rested.
Even though Durant is healthy, he played a lot of minutes in Game 5, producing a high-effort, legendary performance that people think will be hard for him to recover from with one complete day of rest.
I think this reasoning is bad reasoning. Brooklyn will not give away Game 6. The fact that Harden is going to be available tonight, despite his injury, says a lot.
Nash could rest Harden, if he wanted to, in order to be fresher for Game 7. Nash would receive understanding for this decision.
But he will put Harden out there. Harden provides an emotional lift as a core leader and superstar on the team.
He is still an intelligent distributor -- in Game 5, he amassed eight assists. While he can't move much, he is still a good enough post defender.
I also can't imagine that Durant won't be at least near his best. Even if he doesn't drop 49 points, he reliably accrues over 30 points, which will suffice given the support that he can count on.
Support for Durant
I think it's safe to take for granted that Milwaukee doesn't have anybody who can limit Durant.
It is true that regular Defensive Player of the Year candidate Giannis voiced his eagerness to try defending Durant.
But having Giannis guard Durant would be egregiously stupid from Milwaukee.
Brooklyn would simply take Giannis out of the play with stagger screens.
With Giannis out of the picture, he would be unable to provide the help defense that he is famous for.
For the Net offense, Jeff Green is one strong source of support. He clearly shook off his rust after a prolonged absence, knocking down seven threes in Game 6, using his versatility as a big to stretch the floor.
While he probably won't convert seven three-point attempts again, the fact is that he was getting good looks while in rhythm with the offense.
Harden and Durant are both guys who can draw attention to themselves to various degrees and who can put role players in good positions to succeed.
Because of guys like them and the good quantity of effective shooters on the team besides those two stars, Brookyln is attempting almost as many wide-open threes as any other team in this playoff round.
Joe Harris has cooled off, but converted 47.5-percent of his three-pointers during the regular season and can make up for any extent to which Green cools off.
Landry Shamet benefitted from Bruce Brown's reduction in minutes to give the team another effective option from behind the arc.
Blake Griffin can also get hot from deep and has done so in multiple games this series.
These amount to a high quantity of shooting options to challenge a defense that is at its best protecting the paint, yet can't stop Durant from getting the shots that he wants to wherever he wants to take them.
The Bucks rank bottom-three this entire season (playoffs included) in limiting both opposing three-point attempts and opposing three-point makes.
Milwaukee's Offensive Struggles
With a 100.2 offensive rating, the Bucks are generating the worst offense by far out of any team in this round of the playoffs.
They cannot sustain good offense as they often veer into a three-point shooting contest or emphasize iso-ball.
Because they lack creativity or have their offense bog down in the hands of a big (Giannis) inside, their offense becomes stagnant.
So far this series, their highest scoring output in a game was 108. In that game, they overperformed from behind the arc relative to their season three-point percentage.
Brooklyn's defense deserves credit, too. Green's versatility allows the Nets to switch on ball-screens as they like to.
Their bigs in general are helping compel Milwaukee to attempt more mid-range shots than it wants to.
The Verdict
Milwaukee lacks the consistent offense over four quarters to pull away from the defensively impressive Nets, who offer plenty of firepower in their Durant- and Harden-spearheaded offense that features sundry difference-making role players.
Best Bet: Nets +5.5 at -108 with Heritage
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, June 17, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
The Odds
Sports betting sites opened Milwaukee as 3.5-point favorites. Last night, the line was quickly bet up to 5.5.
This is the most points that the Nets have been dogged by since April 14, when they traveled to Philadelphia without Kevin Durant or James Harden and were dogged by 9.5 points.
Obviously, the absence of Kyrie Irving contributes to the spread. James Harden's hamstring injury does as well.
It is true that Harden played 46 minutes in Game 5 and will be available for tonight's game, according to head coach Steve Nash.
But, while he did make a positive contribution to Brooklyn's Game 5 triumph, Harden is clearly not himself. He lacks the confidence in his hamstring to be explosive at all. His lateral movement is also restricted.
Milwaukee is receiving the betting support that it is for an additional reason that I find unjustified.
A lot of bettors seem to take for granted that this series will progress towards a Game 7.
The reasoning for this expectation is that Brooklyn has injured players who would benefit from being rested.
Even though Durant is healthy, he played a lot of minutes in Game 5, producing a high-effort, legendary performance that people think will be hard for him to recover from with one complete day of rest.
I think this reasoning is bad reasoning. Brooklyn will not give away Game 6. The fact that Harden is going to be available tonight, despite his injury, says a lot.
Nash could rest Harden, if he wanted to, in order to be fresher for Game 7. Nash would receive understanding for this decision.
But he will put Harden out there. Harden provides an emotional lift as a core leader and superstar on the team.
He is still an intelligent distributor -- in Game 5, he amassed eight assists. While he can't move much, he is still a good enough post defender.
I also can't imagine that Durant won't be at least near his best. Even if he doesn't drop 49 points, he reliably accrues over 30 points, which will suffice given the support that he can count on.
Support for Durant
I think it's safe to take for granted that Milwaukee doesn't have anybody who can limit Durant.
It is true that regular Defensive Player of the Year candidate Giannis voiced his eagerness to try defending Durant.
But having Giannis guard Durant would be egregiously stupid from Milwaukee.
Brooklyn would simply take Giannis out of the play with stagger screens.
With Giannis out of the picture, he would be unable to provide the help defense that he is famous for.
For the Net offense, Jeff Green is one strong source of support. He clearly shook off his rust after a prolonged absence, knocking down seven threes in Game 6, using his versatility as a big to stretch the floor.
While he probably won't convert seven three-point attempts again, the fact is that he was getting good looks while in rhythm with the offense.
Harden and Durant are both guys who can draw attention to themselves to various degrees and who can put role players in good positions to succeed.
Because of guys like them and the good quantity of effective shooters on the team besides those two stars, Brookyln is attempting almost as many wide-open threes as any other team in this playoff round.
Joe Harris has cooled off, but converted 47.5-percent of his three-pointers during the regular season and can make up for any extent to which Green cools off.
Landry Shamet benefitted from Bruce Brown's reduction in minutes to give the team another effective option from behind the arc.
Blake Griffin can also get hot from deep and has done so in multiple games this series.
These amount to a high quantity of shooting options to challenge a defense that is at its best protecting the paint, yet can't stop Durant from getting the shots that he wants to wherever he wants to take them.
The Bucks rank bottom-three this entire season (playoffs included) in limiting both opposing three-point attempts and opposing three-point makes.
Milwaukee's Offensive Struggles
With a 100.2 offensive rating, the Bucks are generating the worst offense by far out of any team in this round of the playoffs.
They cannot sustain good offense as they often veer into a three-point shooting contest or emphasize iso-ball.
Because they lack creativity or have their offense bog down in the hands of a big (Giannis) inside, their offense becomes stagnant.
So far this series, their highest scoring output in a game was 108. In that game, they overperformed from behind the arc relative to their season three-point percentage.
Brooklyn's defense deserves credit, too. Green's versatility allows the Nets to switch on ball-screens as they like to.
Their bigs in general are helping compel Milwaukee to attempt more mid-range shots than it wants to.
The Verdict
Milwaukee lacks the consistent offense over four quarters to pull away from the defensively impressive Nets, who offer plenty of firepower in their Durant- and Harden-spearheaded offense that features sundry difference-making role players.
Best Bet: Nets +5.5 at -108 with Heritage
