Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 3
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
Betting Approach
For Tuesday’s game between the Lakers and Suns, I wrote up an article in which I defended a play on the Lakers.
After they lost by 30 points, it might seem that I should repent my faith in the Lakers and bet on the Suns.
But this is just one game. The point of betting is not to predict an outcome that would take place every time.
Being 100-percent right is impossible because of the variance that happens in any game — the variance in psychological, referee-related, and athletic factors.
What we want to do is to predict the outcome that is most likely to take place.
So let’s say that there are seven universes in which Game 6 between these two teams is taking place.
The idea is to bet on the outcome that will take place in four or five of the seven universes.
You might say that 30 points seems like a decisive margin and therefore difficult to cast as anomalous.
But what is one game compared to the 18 that LeBron played without Anthony Davis? (And i’m just assuming that AD won’t play. He’ll be a game-time decision).
In those 18 games, the Lakers were 7.1 points per 100 possessions better. To make this stat clear: on the basis of a significant data sample, the Lakers are better as long as they have LeBron on the court.
Why Did It Happen?
We have to ask two questions in order to proceed from understanding what happened last game to predicting what will happen this game.
One, why, in our universe, did the Lakers lose by so many points?
Two, should we expect similar kinds of variance in tonight’s upcoming game that could produce a similar result to the one that devastated us on Tuesday?
The Lakers lost by so many points partly because they were mentally checked out.
But any NBA bettor should not place any predictive emphasis on a team’s mentality in a previous game.
We’ve seen this psychological situation multiple times in these playoffs already: in Game 3 between Washington and Philadelphia, the Wizards lost by 29 points, in the process often looking like they did not want to be on the court, compelling their head coach to call timeouts in order to give them pep talks.
The Wizards were not distraught in the following game, though. They beat the 76ers. We just saw the same reversal happen between the Mavericks and Clippers.
When professional players get embarrassed — on a national stage, no less — they reliably rediscover their psychological edge and bounce back in the following game.
But i’m not just counting on this comparison between teams that aren’t the Lakers and the Lakers.
During the regular season, the Lakers (with LeBron on the court) lost by over 10 points three times.
Each time, they won the following game straight-up, including two wins against playoff teams: Boston and Portland.
Expect a strong psychological showing especially now that they’re back in front of the Laker faithful.
They also lost so badly to the Suns because their shots weren’t falling.
It’s not like they couldn’t accrue good looks. They attempted 20 open and 13 wide open three-point attempts.
But relative to their regular season conversion rates, they underachieved.
Laker Offense vs. Sun Defense
Expect statistical progression in the Laker three-point conversion rates. Their numbers will reach the heights that they reached over the course of the entire regular season.
Better three-point shooting will help open things inside for LeBron and Dennis Schroder.
Schroder had scored 14, 24, and 20 points in the first three games primarily by attacking the paint.
He’ll have stronger driving lanes when Laker shooters force Sun defenders to give them more respect.
Look for a number of support players to step up, especially higher-volume shooters like Kyle Kuzma, who converted 36.1 percent of his three-point attempts in the regular season.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was even much more efficient. There are other guys as well.
With one of the best passers of all time in high-IQ LeBron, Laker shooters will continue to enjoy favorable shot opportunities.
Laker Defense vs. Sun Offense
Before Tuesday’s humiliation, the Lakers had held Phoenix to 102 points or fewer.
The L.A. defense starts with the strong perimeter defending of Alex Caruso and Schroder.
Both have proven themselves able to stay in front of Sun guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
Schroder got so far into Booker’s head as to compel him to commit a flagrant foul in Game 3.
Despite their last game, both players possess a defensive rating of 104 or better in this series.
By staying in front of Sun guards, the Lakers have made Phoenix one of the less efficient teams in the playoffs in that 10-19-foot shot range, which the Suns have cultivated a reputation for thriving in.
In the interior, L.A. possesses a number of big bodies to throw in front of Deandre Ayton. They’ve limited him to 22 points combined in the past two games.
The Verdict
With the personnel to limit Paul, Booker, and Ayton, the Laker offense won’t need to do much to win.
But with continued strong looks at the baskets, a number of Laker shooters will surge and help open driving lanes for guys like LeBron and Schroder.
For the above reasons, expect a strong bounce-back victory from the Lakers tonight as they look to create a Game 7 situation.
Best Bet: Lakers ML at -130 with Heritage
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Thursday, June 3, 2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
Betting Approach
For Tuesday’s game between the Lakers and Suns, I wrote up an article in which I defended a play on the Lakers.
After they lost by 30 points, it might seem that I should repent my faith in the Lakers and bet on the Suns.
But this is just one game. The point of betting is not to predict an outcome that would take place every time.
Being 100-percent right is impossible because of the variance that happens in any game — the variance in psychological, referee-related, and athletic factors.
What we want to do is to predict the outcome that is most likely to take place.
So let’s say that there are seven universes in which Game 6 between these two teams is taking place.
The idea is to bet on the outcome that will take place in four or five of the seven universes.
You might say that 30 points seems like a decisive margin and therefore difficult to cast as anomalous.
But what is one game compared to the 18 that LeBron played without Anthony Davis? (And i’m just assuming that AD won’t play. He’ll be a game-time decision).
In those 18 games, the Lakers were 7.1 points per 100 possessions better. To make this stat clear: on the basis of a significant data sample, the Lakers are better as long as they have LeBron on the court.
Why Did It Happen?
We have to ask two questions in order to proceed from understanding what happened last game to predicting what will happen this game.
One, why, in our universe, did the Lakers lose by so many points?
Two, should we expect similar kinds of variance in tonight’s upcoming game that could produce a similar result to the one that devastated us on Tuesday?
The Lakers lost by so many points partly because they were mentally checked out.
But any NBA bettor should not place any predictive emphasis on a team’s mentality in a previous game.
We’ve seen this psychological situation multiple times in these playoffs already: in Game 3 between Washington and Philadelphia, the Wizards lost by 29 points, in the process often looking like they did not want to be on the court, compelling their head coach to call timeouts in order to give them pep talks.
The Wizards were not distraught in the following game, though. They beat the 76ers. We just saw the same reversal happen between the Mavericks and Clippers.
When professional players get embarrassed — on a national stage, no less — they reliably rediscover their psychological edge and bounce back in the following game.
But i’m not just counting on this comparison between teams that aren’t the Lakers and the Lakers.
During the regular season, the Lakers (with LeBron on the court) lost by over 10 points three times.
Each time, they won the following game straight-up, including two wins against playoff teams: Boston and Portland.
Expect a strong psychological showing especially now that they’re back in front of the Laker faithful.
They also lost so badly to the Suns because their shots weren’t falling.
It’s not like they couldn’t accrue good looks. They attempted 20 open and 13 wide open three-point attempts.
But relative to their regular season conversion rates, they underachieved.
Laker Offense vs. Sun Defense
Expect statistical progression in the Laker three-point conversion rates. Their numbers will reach the heights that they reached over the course of the entire regular season.
Better three-point shooting will help open things inside for LeBron and Dennis Schroder.
Schroder had scored 14, 24, and 20 points in the first three games primarily by attacking the paint.
He’ll have stronger driving lanes when Laker shooters force Sun defenders to give them more respect.
Look for a number of support players to step up, especially higher-volume shooters like Kyle Kuzma, who converted 36.1 percent of his three-point attempts in the regular season.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was even much more efficient. There are other guys as well.
With one of the best passers of all time in high-IQ LeBron, Laker shooters will continue to enjoy favorable shot opportunities.
Laker Defense vs. Sun Offense
Before Tuesday’s humiliation, the Lakers had held Phoenix to 102 points or fewer.
The L.A. defense starts with the strong perimeter defending of Alex Caruso and Schroder.
Both have proven themselves able to stay in front of Sun guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
Schroder got so far into Booker’s head as to compel him to commit a flagrant foul in Game 3.
Despite their last game, both players possess a defensive rating of 104 or better in this series.
By staying in front of Sun guards, the Lakers have made Phoenix one of the less efficient teams in the playoffs in that 10-19-foot shot range, which the Suns have cultivated a reputation for thriving in.
In the interior, L.A. possesses a number of big bodies to throw in front of Deandre Ayton. They’ve limited him to 22 points combined in the past two games.
The Verdict
With the personnel to limit Paul, Booker, and Ayton, the Laker offense won’t need to do much to win.
But with continued strong looks at the baskets, a number of Laker shooters will surge and help open driving lanes for guys like LeBron and Schroder.
For the above reasons, expect a strong bounce-back victory from the Lakers tonight as they look to create a Game 7 situation.
Best Bet: Lakers ML at -130 with Heritage
