Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 27
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Thursday, May 27, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami
Don’t Overthink This
In life as in sports betting, overthinking often leads to negative consequences.
One might overthink and try to concoct the following scenarios:
Milwaukee, up 2-0, will show arrogance or even become complacent in Game 3. Maybe Milwaukee will be intimidated by the Heat faithful.
Possibly, Miami will grow inspired by its home crowd. Desperate, facing a 0-2 series deficit, the Heat will magically play better than they ever have before.
But where is the precedent for any of the above scenarios?
Precedent is important to consider because, without it, there lacks empirical basis for the psychological underpinnings of the scenarios that we’re considering.
Instead of finding precedent for Milwaukee slipping while up 2-0, we find the opposite in recent history.
In 2019, the last time when there were fans in the NBA playoffs, Milwaukee blew out Detroit to go up 2-0 in their series.
Game 3 took place at Detroit and the Bucks won that game by 16 points, almost doubling the spread.
There is no precedent for a recent Miami team pulling off a minor Game 3 miracle.
Match-ups
A Miami win in Game 3 would be somewhat of a miracle not just because the Bucks won Game 2 by 34 points.
But rather, it’s the match-up advantages that the Bucks possess, that can be summarized as follows:
The Bucks have an inside-out game; the Heat do not.
On defense, the Bucks are known for their devotion to protecting the paint.
They adhere to conservative ball-screen principles, send extra help inside, and otherwise like to pack the paint.
Because they also did these things in the regular season, they ranked second in limiting opposing field goal attempts within five feet of the basket and third in limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Because Heat leading scorer Jimmy Butler relies on scoring inside, his offensive skill set has practically been nullified by the Buck defense.
Through two games, Butler has combined for 27 points on 8 of 32 shooting.
Miami did almost win Game 1. It overachieved from beyond the arc — relative to its regular season average -- while taking advantage of an anomalously awful effort from Milwaukee’s three-point shooters.
As a whole, so far, the Heat have done a fair job for themselves of converting open and wide open three-point opportunities.
So it’s not like the Heat are failing to take advantage of opportunities that they normally take advantage of.
The problem is that they are not normally good from behind the arc. In the regular season, the Heat ranked 14th in three-pointers made per game.
Conversely, the Bucks ranked fifth in the category. They have plenty of shooters with which to complement — and thereby further facilitate -- the driving prowess of guys like perennial MVP candidate Giannis.
In Game 2, two bench players — Pat Connaughton and Bryn Forbes — combined for 11 of 18 shooting from behind the arc.
Connaughton and Forbes attest to the level of depth in Milwaukee’s roster. Starters like Khris Middleton, who have yet to really go off, largely explain why the Bucks ranked so highly from behind the arc during the regular season.
Best Bet: Bucks ML at -120 with Bookmaker
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Thursday, May 27, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
Chris Paul
Sun point guard Chris Paul is clearly ailing with shoulder pain, for which reason he mustered 23 minutes in Game 2 after accruing 36 minutes in Game 1.
Given the way that he looked in Game 2, it’s unreasonable to expect any meaningful difference — or any difference at all — since there is only one day in between Games 2 and 3.
So he will play less. His reduced playing time and his lessened ability to positively impact the game means that his team will miss his defense — Paul is a nine-time member of the All-Defensive Team.
Moreover, Paul’s reduction in playing time has a tremendous influence on tempo.
Recent history shows that Chris-Paul led teams regularly rank bottom 10 in pace.
Last year without Paul, the Suns ranked ninth in pace. This year, with Paul, they dropped to 24th in the category.
Game 3 will be characterized by faster tempo because Paul will play less. Faster tempo means more possessions and more scoring opportunities.
The Stars Take Over
The Lakers do not have an answer for Devin Booker, who scored 34 points in Game 1 and 31 in Game 2, despite doing nothing from beyond the arc.
Booker uses his quickness to draw a lot of fouls. He is proficient in the mid-range and has improved in his ability to attack the basket.
He’s scoring so much inside despite the presence of elite shot-blocker Anthony Davis for the Lakers.
If the Suns can do a better job from behind the arc — in Game 2, they scored 102 points, despite underachieving from three relative to their season average — then they can get Davis out of the paint.
Power forward Jae Crowder, who was off in Game 2, is somebody I believe in. He tends to follow a couple of bad efforts from three with a strong shooting performance.
This regular season, he converted 38.9 percent of his three-point opportunities.
On the other side, Phoenix does not have an answer for AD, who followed up his lackluster effort in Game 1 with a 34-point performance that mirrored his May 9 production against these Suns.
All it takes for Davis is to be more aggressive and the Lakers don’t even need to improve upon their disappointing three-point efficiency.
One would expect them to at home, though. In Phoenix, they shot a league-worst 16.7 percent on their open three-point shots.
They should easily bring that figure up — their regular season open three-point attempt conversion rate was more than twice as high — and so eclipse their scoring output from Game 2.
Best Bet: Suns/Lakers Over 210.5 at -108 with Heritage
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Thursday, May 27, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami
Don’t Overthink This
In life as in sports betting, overthinking often leads to negative consequences.
One might overthink and try to concoct the following scenarios:
Milwaukee, up 2-0, will show arrogance or even become complacent in Game 3. Maybe Milwaukee will be intimidated by the Heat faithful.
Possibly, Miami will grow inspired by its home crowd. Desperate, facing a 0-2 series deficit, the Heat will magically play better than they ever have before.
But where is the precedent for any of the above scenarios?
Precedent is important to consider because, without it, there lacks empirical basis for the psychological underpinnings of the scenarios that we’re considering.
Instead of finding precedent for Milwaukee slipping while up 2-0, we find the opposite in recent history.
In 2019, the last time when there were fans in the NBA playoffs, Milwaukee blew out Detroit to go up 2-0 in their series.
Game 3 took place at Detroit and the Bucks won that game by 16 points, almost doubling the spread.
There is no precedent for a recent Miami team pulling off a minor Game 3 miracle.
Match-ups
A Miami win in Game 3 would be somewhat of a miracle not just because the Bucks won Game 2 by 34 points.
But rather, it’s the match-up advantages that the Bucks possess, that can be summarized as follows:
The Bucks have an inside-out game; the Heat do not.
On defense, the Bucks are known for their devotion to protecting the paint.
They adhere to conservative ball-screen principles, send extra help inside, and otherwise like to pack the paint.
Because they also did these things in the regular season, they ranked second in limiting opposing field goal attempts within five feet of the basket and third in limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Because Heat leading scorer Jimmy Butler relies on scoring inside, his offensive skill set has practically been nullified by the Buck defense.
Through two games, Butler has combined for 27 points on 8 of 32 shooting.
Miami did almost win Game 1. It overachieved from beyond the arc — relative to its regular season average -- while taking advantage of an anomalously awful effort from Milwaukee’s three-point shooters.
As a whole, so far, the Heat have done a fair job for themselves of converting open and wide open three-point opportunities.
So it’s not like the Heat are failing to take advantage of opportunities that they normally take advantage of.
The problem is that they are not normally good from behind the arc. In the regular season, the Heat ranked 14th in three-pointers made per game.
Conversely, the Bucks ranked fifth in the category. They have plenty of shooters with which to complement — and thereby further facilitate -- the driving prowess of guys like perennial MVP candidate Giannis.
In Game 2, two bench players — Pat Connaughton and Bryn Forbes — combined for 11 of 18 shooting from behind the arc.
Connaughton and Forbes attest to the level of depth in Milwaukee’s roster. Starters like Khris Middleton, who have yet to really go off, largely explain why the Bucks ranked so highly from behind the arc during the regular season.
Best Bet: Bucks ML at -120 with Bookmaker
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Thursday, May 27, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
Chris Paul
Sun point guard Chris Paul is clearly ailing with shoulder pain, for which reason he mustered 23 minutes in Game 2 after accruing 36 minutes in Game 1.
Given the way that he looked in Game 2, it’s unreasonable to expect any meaningful difference — or any difference at all — since there is only one day in between Games 2 and 3.
So he will play less. His reduced playing time and his lessened ability to positively impact the game means that his team will miss his defense — Paul is a nine-time member of the All-Defensive Team.
Moreover, Paul’s reduction in playing time has a tremendous influence on tempo.
Recent history shows that Chris-Paul led teams regularly rank bottom 10 in pace.
Last year without Paul, the Suns ranked ninth in pace. This year, with Paul, they dropped to 24th in the category.
Game 3 will be characterized by faster tempo because Paul will play less. Faster tempo means more possessions and more scoring opportunities.
The Stars Take Over
The Lakers do not have an answer for Devin Booker, who scored 34 points in Game 1 and 31 in Game 2, despite doing nothing from beyond the arc.
Booker uses his quickness to draw a lot of fouls. He is proficient in the mid-range and has improved in his ability to attack the basket.
He’s scoring so much inside despite the presence of elite shot-blocker Anthony Davis for the Lakers.
If the Suns can do a better job from behind the arc — in Game 2, they scored 102 points, despite underachieving from three relative to their season average — then they can get Davis out of the paint.
Power forward Jae Crowder, who was off in Game 2, is somebody I believe in. He tends to follow a couple of bad efforts from three with a strong shooting performance.
This regular season, he converted 38.9 percent of his three-point opportunities.
On the other side, Phoenix does not have an answer for AD, who followed up his lackluster effort in Game 1 with a 34-point performance that mirrored his May 9 production against these Suns.
All it takes for Davis is to be more aggressive and the Lakers don’t even need to improve upon their disappointing three-point efficiency.
One would expect them to at home, though. In Phoenix, they shot a league-worst 16.7 percent on their open three-point shots.
They should easily bring that figure up — their regular season open three-point attempt conversion rate was more than twice as high — and so eclipse their scoring output from Game 2.
Best Bet: Suns/Lakers Over 210.5 at -108 with Heritage
