Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 13
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Thursday, May 13, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
Series Dominance
From an ATS perspective, Milwaukee has dominated the series with Indiana in recent history.
This season, the Bucks are 2-0 ATS against Indiana. They covered a nine-point spread in February, winning 130-110. In March, they covered a 6.5-point spread, winning 140-113.
Drive-and-Kick
It may seem unusual that the Bucks manage to score so many points against Indiana, given Milwaukee’s proclivity to attempt three-pointers and given Indiana’s general success in limiting open and wide open three-point attempts.
But look at 2:22 in the following video to see what I am about to explain:
In this play, a Buck player drives inside, forces three Pacer defenders to converge in the paint, and then kicks the ball out for an open three.
Milwaukee’s offense thrives on the drive-and-kick. Because they can succeed inside against the Pacers, they can also flourish behind the arc.
Both on their bench and in the starting lineup, the Bucks possess an abundance of players who can run the floor in transition or drive in the half-court.
One obvious example is perennial MVP candidate Giannis, who is extremely difficult to deter as he attacks the basket.
But Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and others also accrue a lot of drives per game and also drive efficiently.
Buck Offense vs. Pacer Defense
Since Defensive Player of the Year candidate and leading shot-blocker Myles Turner's absence on April 19, the Pacers are allowing by far the most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
They have always lacked the physicality and now they lack the quality to offer meaningful rim protection. Their interior defense does not scare anybody.
As in the above video, they will need to help a lot inside, which will allow Milwaukee to amass open shot attempts behind the arc.
Largely due to their drive-and-kick game, the Bucks make the fourth-most three-pointers per game.
Pacer Offense vs. Buck Defense
In the half-court, Indiana loves to attack inside.
The Pacers attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket. They’ve even converted traditional shooters like Doug McDermott into rim-attackers.
They match up terribly with a Buck defense known for its conservative drop coverage principles in its ball-screen defense and for the help defense that it likes to send inside.
Supported by strong defenders like reigning Defensive Player of the Year Giannis, the Bucks rank second-best at limiting opposing field goal attempts within five feet of the basket and they rank first at limiting opposing field goal percentage from the same distance.
Indiana also loves to rely on transition offense, but will struggle to score in transition against a Milwaukee defense that allows the second-fewest points per game in transition.
Best Bet: Bucks ATS
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, May 13, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis
Minnesota’s Offensive Improvement
This season, Minnesota made a coaching change — replacing Ryan Saunders with Chris Finch — that brought with it a major improvement in offensive production.
Under Saunders, the Timberwolves were scoring 105.7 points per 100 possessions. Under Finch, they are scoring 5.9 more points per 100 possession.
This uptick in productivity is conspicuous in recent play, where the Timberwolves have scored 126 vs. Golden State, 136 vs. New Orleans (including overtime), 135 vs. Memphis, 112 vs. defensively solid Miami, 128 vs. Orlando, and 119 vs. Detroit.
They are consistently scoring a lot more points than opponents allow on average.
Three players on the team average 19 or more points per game: Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards.
These three players provide the crux of Minnesota’s offensive impetus.
Edwards loves to drive inside. He has created a highlight reel of himself attacking the basket with tremendous momentum.
It’s easy to be enamored by the energy with which Edwards attacks the basket. But one can’t forget to notice his ability to create and exploit open paths to the basket.
Without this subtle ability, at least fewer highlights happen.
Russell and Towns are more well-known commodities. Russell is a versatile scorer in the sense that he is comfortable being productive from various spots on the court.
Towns enjoys posting-up, using his skill set to finesse his way towards or even away from the basket in order to score.
Minnesota Offense vs. Denver Defense
Largely thanks to guys like Edwards and Towns, the Timberwolves attempt the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
They match up well against a Denver defense that allows the highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
One reason for Denver’s lack of rim protection is Nikola Jokic. As measured by defensive field goal percentage, he is one of the worst rim protectors at his position.
Minnesota also attempts a lot of three-pointers, especially in more recent play.
The Timberwolves attempt the seventh-most three-pointers. Russell and Towns spearhead this aspect of Minnesota’s offense.
Towns spaces the floor well, matching Russell’s three-point conversion rate of over 39 percent.
Defensively, Denver is vulnerable along the perimeter as well, conceding the seventh-highest rate of open three-point attempts.
Denver Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
On offense, Denver loves to score in the paint. The Nuggets accrue the ninth-most points in the paint per game.
For all of his faults on defense, Jokic is a seminal component of Denver’s offense. He has more touches in the paint than any other player in the NBA.
Inside, Jokic is an efficient scorer, who will find a way to establish position inside — like by setting screens -- and then exhibit a variety of moves.
He’s also a facilitator who creates for others — like by handing the ball off to a teammate — while incurring minimal risk of turning the ball over.
Led by Jokic, the Nugget offense matches up well against a Minnesota defense that ranks 25th in limiting opposing points per game in the paint.
With this ability to score inside at will, Denver can match Minnesota’s high scoring output.
Best Bet: Over 235.5 at -108 with Heritage
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Thursday, May 13, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
Series Dominance
From an ATS perspective, Milwaukee has dominated the series with Indiana in recent history.
This season, the Bucks are 2-0 ATS against Indiana. They covered a nine-point spread in February, winning 130-110. In March, they covered a 6.5-point spread, winning 140-113.
Drive-and-Kick
It may seem unusual that the Bucks manage to score so many points against Indiana, given Milwaukee’s proclivity to attempt three-pointers and given Indiana’s general success in limiting open and wide open three-point attempts.
But look at 2:22 in the following video to see what I am about to explain:
In this play, a Buck player drives inside, forces three Pacer defenders to converge in the paint, and then kicks the ball out for an open three.
Milwaukee’s offense thrives on the drive-and-kick. Because they can succeed inside against the Pacers, they can also flourish behind the arc.
Both on their bench and in the starting lineup, the Bucks possess an abundance of players who can run the floor in transition or drive in the half-court.
One obvious example is perennial MVP candidate Giannis, who is extremely difficult to deter as he attacks the basket.
But Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and others also accrue a lot of drives per game and also drive efficiently.
Buck Offense vs. Pacer Defense
Since Defensive Player of the Year candidate and leading shot-blocker Myles Turner's absence on April 19, the Pacers are allowing by far the most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
They have always lacked the physicality and now they lack the quality to offer meaningful rim protection. Their interior defense does not scare anybody.
As in the above video, they will need to help a lot inside, which will allow Milwaukee to amass open shot attempts behind the arc.
Largely due to their drive-and-kick game, the Bucks make the fourth-most three-pointers per game.
Pacer Offense vs. Buck Defense
In the half-court, Indiana loves to attack inside.
The Pacers attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket. They’ve even converted traditional shooters like Doug McDermott into rim-attackers.
They match up terribly with a Buck defense known for its conservative drop coverage principles in its ball-screen defense and for the help defense that it likes to send inside.
Supported by strong defenders like reigning Defensive Player of the Year Giannis, the Bucks rank second-best at limiting opposing field goal attempts within five feet of the basket and they rank first at limiting opposing field goal percentage from the same distance.
Indiana also loves to rely on transition offense, but will struggle to score in transition against a Milwaukee defense that allows the second-fewest points per game in transition.
Best Bet: Bucks ATS
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, May 13, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis
Minnesota’s Offensive Improvement
This season, Minnesota made a coaching change — replacing Ryan Saunders with Chris Finch — that brought with it a major improvement in offensive production.
Under Saunders, the Timberwolves were scoring 105.7 points per 100 possessions. Under Finch, they are scoring 5.9 more points per 100 possession.
This uptick in productivity is conspicuous in recent play, where the Timberwolves have scored 126 vs. Golden State, 136 vs. New Orleans (including overtime), 135 vs. Memphis, 112 vs. defensively solid Miami, 128 vs. Orlando, and 119 vs. Detroit.
They are consistently scoring a lot more points than opponents allow on average.
Three players on the team average 19 or more points per game: Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards.
These three players provide the crux of Minnesota’s offensive impetus.
Edwards loves to drive inside. He has created a highlight reel of himself attacking the basket with tremendous momentum.
It’s easy to be enamored by the energy with which Edwards attacks the basket. But one can’t forget to notice his ability to create and exploit open paths to the basket.
Without this subtle ability, at least fewer highlights happen.
Russell and Towns are more well-known commodities. Russell is a versatile scorer in the sense that he is comfortable being productive from various spots on the court.
Towns enjoys posting-up, using his skill set to finesse his way towards or even away from the basket in order to score.
Minnesota Offense vs. Denver Defense
Largely thanks to guys like Edwards and Towns, the Timberwolves attempt the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
They match up well against a Denver defense that allows the highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
One reason for Denver’s lack of rim protection is Nikola Jokic. As measured by defensive field goal percentage, he is one of the worst rim protectors at his position.
Minnesota also attempts a lot of three-pointers, especially in more recent play.
The Timberwolves attempt the seventh-most three-pointers. Russell and Towns spearhead this aspect of Minnesota’s offense.
Towns spaces the floor well, matching Russell’s three-point conversion rate of over 39 percent.
Defensively, Denver is vulnerable along the perimeter as well, conceding the seventh-highest rate of open three-point attempts.
Denver Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
On offense, Denver loves to score in the paint. The Nuggets accrue the ninth-most points in the paint per game.
For all of his faults on defense, Jokic is a seminal component of Denver’s offense. He has more touches in the paint than any other player in the NBA.
Inside, Jokic is an efficient scorer, who will find a way to establish position inside — like by setting screens -- and then exhibit a variety of moves.
He’s also a facilitator who creates for others — like by handing the ball off to a teammate — while incurring minimal risk of turning the ball over.
Led by Jokic, the Nugget offense matches up well against a Minnesota defense that ranks 25th in limiting opposing points per game in the paint.
With this ability to score inside at will, Denver can match Minnesota’s high scoring output.
Best Bet: Over 235.5 at -108 with Heritage
