Thursday, October 4th-Kentucky @ South Carolina

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
We have ourselves a helluva matchup for the Thursday night game this week. Basically two top-10 teams as far as rankings go. I think this game will get debated heavily over the next 48-72 hours but I have a side here that I like quite a bit.

South Carolina took care of Messy State last week at home 38-21. They actually trailed this game in 2nd half. It was a solid situational spot on Messy St but the Cocks got the job done with a frontdoor cover. Smelley got the start after leading some nice dives in 2nd half at baton Rouge. He was 19-37 for 279 yards with two scores and a pick. The running game was decent as Boyd and Davis both approached 60 yards. Scary's biggest issue o nthe team is the run defense. Messy put up some nice numbers on ground a week after LSU torched them. Plain and simple the run defense sucks. Imagine what teams with good/great QB's can do to this team via play-action.

Kentucky figured to be in a letdown spot but throttled FAU 45-17. I know many people were on FAU early last week and line creeped down before Dr. Bob pushed it back up. I leaned UK slightly but left it alone due to sandwich and the Bob movement. Woodson finally threw a pick but was brilliant per usual hitting nearly 80 percent of his passes for over 300 yards. The running game was excellent as well. The defense was pretty solid against a team that can do some damage. In the games as high chalk UK has been holding teams down, especially in the 2nd half. What did we say about them weeks ago. They are capable of making adjustments. People may not believe they can play any defense but they are not to be confused with previous editions of Wildcat football.

The game opened at 4-59. It opened at Bookmaker at 3.5. That is still where the line sits.

I see Kentucky coming out and just having Scary on their heels all night. Once Little gets going it will open up anything Woodson wants. He is great as it is but the Cocks will have to committ to one or the other. They cannot defend both. Once UK gets them off-balalnce things should go pretty smoothly. S. Carolina will move the ball on offense. They don't have the tools of a UK but they will move it. They just won't be able to catch up. The road win at a hostile Razorback Stadium was huge confidence builder for UK. They know they can win on road. Andre is a veteran now and will stay composed.. Look for UK to take control in 2nd half.

Kentucky takes it on the field 37-27

Kentucky ML +145 3 units
Kentucky +6 -120 3 units


added this just now...think line will level off. Thats as good as I will see I think...gl tonight fellas
 
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Good shit, BAR! I'm definitely taking a look at Kentucky ML.

GL bro, and nice writeup!

:cheers:
 
BOL, BAR. If anything, i'll prolly be on the other side. But since my #'s make uSC only a 1 pt fav here, it's gonna most likely be a no play.
 
OK B.A.R. :pillow: Lets get it on....haha

I just cant believe that Spurrier isnt going to step it up a notch after the scare last week against Messy. He has the talent and he is a hell of a coach and somehow, he always manages to pull shit out of his ass. Just like he did at Florida. :36_11_6: He stayed close with LSU (closer than the score reflects) so I know he can step it up.

Good Health bud :cheers:
 
Good health on this one BAR; awww...what the hell...good luck on this one BAR.

South Carolina is better than Arkansas; Kentucky had that game handed to them essentially.
 
Man, BAR, you're fuckin my shit up. I'm really leaning to USC -3.

But you're getting good value, so good luck or good health if I play.
 
ESPN agrees with you; I also didn't realize the extent to which SC defense is injured at LB.

From Espn.com

Kentucky Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
Kentucky runs a base no-huddle offense with the coaches signaling the play in from the sidelines, which makes it difficult for defenses to make substitutions. That could spell trouble for a South Carolina front seven that has been depleted by injuries. MLB Jasper Brinkley, who anchored the defense, sustained a season-ending knee against LSU two weeks ago and DE Nathan Pepper sustained a season-ending knee injury earlier this year. In addition, Jasper's brother Casper moved from outside linebacker to end when the Gamecocks lost Pepper so Rodney Paulk is the only starting linebacker that started in the season opener. QB Andre' Woodson is seasoned and smart. If he sees a linebacker in the wrong alignment and/or out of position in coverage, he can take advantage. Unfortunately for South Carolina, it could do everything right and Woodson could still burn them because of the weapons he has at his disposal. WR Keenan Burton draws a tough matchup against DC Captain Munnerlyn, but he's shown he can make tough catches in traffic. He excels at shielding defenders and staying focused when the ball is in the air. No. 2 receiver Dicky Lyons is coming off an eight-catch performance and No. 3 Steve Johnson is averaging better than 18 yards per catch. South Carolina just doesn't have the depth to matchup. In addition, TE Jacob Tamme is fast enough to stretch the field and quick enough to get open underneath. As a result, it's imperative the Gamecocks get to Woodson and they should be optimistic about their chances. The Wildcats don't have great athletes at either tackle position so DEs Casper Brinkley and Eric Norwood should be able to apply pressure of the edge. Though he has admittedly shown great poise in the face of pressure, Woodson is just like any other quarterback in the sense he becomes far less accurate when forced to hurry his throwing process and/or off balance.
<!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (BEGIN)---------------------><TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=225 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000"><CENTER>Kentucky at South Carolina</CENTER></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=225></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width="100%"><TABLE align=center><TBODY><TR><TD align=left></TD><TD align=middle>vs. </TD><TD align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
When: Oct. 4, 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Columbia, S.C.
Preview: Kentucky-South Carolina suddenly more meaningful </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (END)--------------------->
RB Rafael Little, who has rushed for over 100 yards in four of Kentucky's five games this year, is the perfect complement to Woodson. Though he doesn't have elite strength, it's unlikely he faces many eight-man fronts because they weaken the defense's ability to cover and South Carolina doesn't want to get beat by Woodson over the top. The explosive Little also benefits from the Wildcats blocking schemes. He is at his best running behind zone blocking. With his blockers occupying defenders and stretching them horizontally Little can read the front and cut up when he locates a seam. It should come as little surprise that this style of blocking is perfect for cutback runners like Little. In other words, Kentucky can make South Carolina pay if its overhauled linebacker unit gets caught out of position. The Wildcats will also pull their backside offensive linemen allowing Little to ride the hip of the blocker and cut up when he sees daylight. Again, the ability of the offensive tackles to seal the edge against these athletic ends is concerning. However, it won't hurt the Wildcats as much as it does other teams. Kentucky can supplement its running game by throwing to the sure-handed Little out of the backfield. If Little is having a hard time turning the corner on handoffs, Woodson can dump the ball off to him in the flat and his ability to make the first defender miss makes him dangerous after the catch.
South Carolina Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
Kentucky's run defense has been one of the most porous in the nation and the front seven simply isn't getting the job done. Up front, defensive tackles are getting caught out of gaps and defensive ends are getting caught too far inside. At the second level, LBs Johnny Williams, Braxton Kelley, Micah Johnson and Wesley Woodyard aren't getting off blocks in time to get into sound tackling positions. With South Carolina's instability at quarterback and Kentucky's ability to put points on the board in a hurry, expect the Gamecocks to take advantage and stay committed to the run. The idea is consistently handing the ball off too RBs Cory Boyd and Mike Davis will take pressure off QB Chris Smelley and help South Carolina win the time of possession battle. Boyd is a tough runner who can make defenders miss or run them over in the open field. The Gamecocks lose little in terms of talent when Davis gets the carry. He too is quick enough to turn the corner and can pick up yards after contact. It's also worth mentioning that the Gamecock offensive line appears to be making strides. While it still isn't controlling the line of scrimmage, it should be able to hold its own against this front.

Smelley replaced Blake Mitchell as the starter last week and he did an adequate job of running the offense. Well enough, in fact, to be listed as the starter on the depth chart this week and his head coach should put him in a position to exceed. Steve Spurrier is an architect when it comes to route structures and he faces a Kentucky defense that frequently drops seven men into zone coverage in situations with pass-heavy tendencies. Spurrier can exploit these looks in a number of different ways including attacking the seam with TE Jared Cook or a slot receiver. Running Cook or a receiver deep will draw the safeties to the middle of the field creating seams for receivers or Cook running routes underneath and single-coverage matchups on the outside. If the safeties stay inside, Cook or the slot receiver should see single-coverage. The Wildcats' conservative approach also relies on the font four to get to the quarterback and the pass rush has been ordinary with the exception of DE Jeremy Jarmon. Fortunately for Smelley, Spurrier can negate Jarmon with his backs and tight ends. They can stay in to help the tackles out when Spurrier is looking to attack downfield or release on a route to give Smelley a safety valve when he gets into trouble. Finally, South Carolina's ability to run the ball and Spurrier's commitment to the ground game should set up the play-action package. With Smelley freezing linebackers with his play fakes last week, this should open the door for the Gamecocks to attack downfield and WR Kenny McKinley has the speed to get behind the defense quickly. However, schemes mean little without strong performances from the quarterback so it's important the inconsistent Smelley stay within the game plan and limit his mistakes. For example, Kentucky's best corner is Trevard Lindley and he's capable of staying with McKinley when his technique is sound. As a result, Smelley must be willing to check-down to another receiver, run or throw the ball away when he is looking for McKinley deep and Lindley is able to stay with him.

Special Teams
<!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (BEGIN)--------------------->
<TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=225 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000"><CENTER>Key individual matchup</CENTER></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=225></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width="100%">Kentucky LOT Gary Williams vs. South Carolina DE Eric Norwood
Though he is far smaller than Williams and he doesn't have great lower body strength, Norwood is capable of holding his ground when Kentucky runs at him and the reason is Williams isn't fundamentally sound. Williams doesn't stun defenders with a powerful initial punch or stay low to the ground so Norwood can use his quickness to beat him to the point of attack and his lower center of gravity to get under his pads. In addition, Norwood has a strong upper body and he should be able to shed Williams who lacks ideal balance and tends to lean into his blocks rather than driving his legs. And look for Norwood to make an even greater impact when QB Woodson drops back to pass. Norwood has the explosive first step to blow by Williams, who takes too long to get set, and he closes quickly when he gets a clear path to the quarterback. Williams can't compensate for his lack of burst by widening his split and/or kicking out wide either. The relentless Norwood shows an effective spin move and Williams lacks the foot speed to counter. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (END)--------------------->The last time these two teams met the Wildcats ran a fake punt with the ball on their own 29 yard line and P Tim Masthay picked up 17 yards. As a result, South Carolina's punt return unit has to make sure that Masthay kicks the ball before releasing downfield and that hesitation will make it tougher for blockers to get into position for PR Munnerlyn. Making matters worse for Munnerlyn, Kentucky has done a sound job of covering punts. On the other hand, Gameock DE Norwood blocked a punt last week so Masthay can't hold onto the ball too long. Masthay also gets good distance on his kickoffs with 11 of his 42 kickoffs resulting in touchbacks. However, Kentucky's kickoff coverage is amongst the worst in the nation statistically and the Wildcats have already surrendered two kickoff returns for touchdowns. With that in mind, return man Chris Culliver, who has flashed big-play ability, could provide the Gamecocks with quality starting field position and/or points. Kentucky PK Lones Seiber has connected on four of his six field goal attempts but missed three of his 28 point after attempts.
South Carolina's Ryan Succop handles all facets of the kicking game. He's connected on six of his eight field goal attempts with one miss coming from 50 yards out and the other coming from 47 yards out. As a punter, he's averaging 41 yards per punt and he's placed five of his 21 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Wildcat PR Little is averaging 8.9 yards per punt and South Carolina's punt coverage has been average at best so don't be surprised to see Succop punt away from him. Finally, eight of Succop's 27 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks but the coverage has been shaky here too. That doesn't bode well for the Gamecocks because Kentucky KOR Burton is capable of going the distance if he gets a seam.


Scouts' Edge

A Spurrier-coached team has never lost to Kentucky, and South Carolina has defeated the Wildcats the last seven times these two teams have met dating back to 1999. Oh, how the times they are a changin'.
There are three key differences between those games and the one to be played on Thursday night. First off, the Gamecocks don't have a mobile quarterback like they had in Syvelle Newton. Remember, Newton rushed for 77 yards and a touchdown and caught a 22-yard touchdown pass in South Carolina's seven-point win over Kentucky last year. Secondly, the Wildcats have beaten Georgia, Louisville and at Arkansas since the last time these two teams met. They now have confidence in their ability to win big games. Thirdly, QB Woodson, WR Burton, RB Little and TE Tamme are all seniors. That experience has already paid dividends in adverse situations this year and should help the Wildcats avoid a letdown as well as deal with the adversity of playing on the road in the SEC.


Prediction: Wildcats 38, Gamecocks 31
 
Red...I was liking points but I said screw it. I truly believe UK wins this game on the field...gl


Yanks...your line is more of what it should be imo...

ETG, I know as much but at same point I just think the injuries on defense are a bit much

macdamn...good shit bro...

Jeffc, good to se your first post. Always nice to see other detroiters on the board.

Shark, The ole ballcoach certainly will have a few thricks ready but he can't trick his defense into playing great against a very versatile offense.

Horses, I know many think Arky messed that game up but I look at it this way. In first half both teams gave up a turnover for a score. In second half UK squandered 2 opportunities as well and gave up a free-kickoff touchdown. That game was a confidence booster.

RJ, I knew you may be upset. Just remember, if LSU plays full throttle a few weeks ago that game would have been a 30-35 point margin.

Ramble..routine indeed!

Mags..thank yas sir.


3wiggler..great stuff man. jasper los is so huge. I like how they noted that UK has learned to win in tough enviroments.
 
RJ, I knew you may be upset. Just remember, if LSU plays full throttle a few weeks ago that game would have been a 30-35 point margin.

This is one thing I don't get. How did LSU not play full throttle? Were they hiding stuff for Tulane? No doubt about it, Spurrier got a backdoor cover but Dorsey wasn't sitting on the sideline and all the starters were still in. I find it hard to believe that that game should of been 35point LSU victory. LSU goes up 21-7 at half on a beautiful fake field goal and they capitalized on costly SC turnovers. Emanuel Cook drops a game changing pick-6 which would of made it 21-14. LSU went full throttle on every team they played this yr, they scored 7 points in the 2nd half on SC. You might say they got conservative but conservative to me is not calling a flea flicker. That to me is "we are going to try an embarrass you". There is no doubt SC was out matched and out manned in the game but there are not many teams in this country who can go into LSU and win, let alone keep it close. Les Miles blew the cover, he could of kept running it down the throat of SC with a bigger and more physical OL and he could of taken any breath of air out of them but he got away from what was working.
 
This is one thing I don't get. How did LSU not play full throttle? Were they hiding stuff for Tulane? No doubt about it, Spurrier got a backdoor cover but Dorsey wasn't sitting on the sideline and all the starters were still in. I find it hard to believe that that game should of been 35point LSU victory. LSU goes up 21-7 at half on a beautiful fake field goal and they capitalized on costly SC turnovers. Emanuel Cook drops a game changing pick-6 which would of made it 21-14. LSU went full throttle on every team they played this yr, they scored 7 points in the 2nd half on SC. You might say they got conservative but conservative to me is not calling a flea flicker. That to me is "we are going to try an embarrass you". There is no doubt SC was out matched and out manned in the game but there are not many teams in this country who can go into LSU and win, let alone keep it close. Les Miles blew the cover, he could of kept running it down the throat of SC with a bigger and more physical OL and he could of taken any breath of air out of them but he got away from what was working.


Matt Fylnns ankle was still hindering him. He could not theow with proper technique. With that being said and the wet field conditions they just stuck to the ground the whole second half and obviously got a bit bored at times on defense. Maybe I stated it could have been too big but at same point on a dry day with the QB totally healthy that game wasn't close...LSU was just trying to burn clock after mid-third qtr...

so..lets say more like a 38-14 kinda final.
 
We have ourselves a helluva matchup for the Thursday night game this week. Basically two top-10 teams as far as rankings go. I think this game will get debated heavily over the next 48-72 hours but I have a side here that I like quite a bit.

South Carolina took care of Messy State last week at home 38-21. They actually trailed this game in 2nd half. It was a solid situational spot on Messy St but the Cocks got the job done with a frontdoor cover. Smelley got the start after leading some nice dives in 2nd half at baton Rouge. He was 19-37 for 279 yards with two scores and a pick. The running game was decent as Boyd and Davis both approached 60 yards. Scary's biggest issue o nthe team is the run defense. Messy put up some nice numbers on ground a week after LSU torched them. Plain and simple the run defense sucks. Imagine what teams with good/great QB's can do to this team via play-action.

Kentucky figured to be in a letdown spot but throttled FAU 45-17. I know many people were on FAU early last week and line creeped down before Dr. Bob pushed it back up. I leaned UK slightly but left it alone due to sandwich and the Bob movement. Woodson finally threw a pick but was brilliant per usual hitting nearly 80 percent of his passes for over 300 yards. The running game was excellent as well. The defense was pretty solid against a team that can do some damage. In the games as high chalk UK has been holding teams down, especially in the 2nd half. What did we say about them weeks ago. They are capable of making adjustments. People may not believe they can play any defense but they are not to be confused with previous editions of Wildcat football.

The game opened at 4-59. It opened at Bookmaker at 3.5. That is still where the line sits.

I see Kentucky coming out and just having Scary on their heels all night. Once Little gets going it will open up anything Woodson wants. He is great as it is but the Cocks will have to committ to one or the other. They cannot defend both. Once UK gets them off-balalnce things should go pretty smoothly. S. Carolina will move the ball on offense. They don't have the tools of a UK but they will move it. They just won't be able to catch up. The road win at a hostile Razorback Stadium was huge confidence builder for UK. They know they can win on road. Andre is a veteran now and will stay composed.. Look for UK to take control in 2nd half.

Kentucky takes it on the field 37-27

Kentucky ML +145 3 units
:smiley_acbe: Exactly BAR BOL ML as well here:cheers:
 
Good LucK Im with ya.

Although I choked when someone said the 28-16 finished versus LSU was closer than the score appeared. I label it a misleading final score the other way. Anyhow, the cocks defense aint near what is being advertised.
 
well..couldn't be a better start for SC...

They are playing good run defense and making some plays on offense(as they should).

Feel very unconfident in this one...thisp lay is precipitated on run opening up the rest of the game and frankly they cannot run..early though...
 
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