Thursday Night -- Saints @ Bears

3rd & Long

3rd & Long

Tom Brady is a douchebag
2 units
Saints +3

1 unit
Saints ML +142

1 unit to win 4 units reverse
Saints +3 & Over 45


I think we have a pretty big mismatch tomorrow night.

I just watched the replay of both of their games last week and a few things jumped out at me -

1 - The Bears generated absolutely no pash rush against Jax.

2 - The Saints played a very good game on defense against the Falcons, don't let the final score of that game fool you.

3- There are holes all over the place in the Bears secondary.

I'm not a big fan of backing a dome team on the road especially in December at a cold weather team, but the Saints are the healthiest they have been all season, Shockey & Bush looked very good last week. Saints have enough balance on offense to keep this Bears defense honest, and Brees doesn't need much time in the pocket as it is.

Atlanta made some big plays against the Saints which kept that game close, but I don't think the Bears have the players to do that.

I'm throwing out the Saints road record here, a lot of that was imo against better competition and when they were banged up, and I'm going to ignore the cold weather factor and back New Orleans + the points and ml. I'll post my plays tomorrow after I get my lines (local)

:shake:
 
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Completely agree. I think the Saints are getting their mojo back since the Monday night win. I look for them to put up some points even in cold Chicago.
 
GL 3rd - I asked in your other thread too, you're not too worried about the weather affecting NO's passing?
:shake:
 
I agree 3rd (prob a bad thing for you) but in the pub today we looked at the weather forecast and it give a high of -7 :o it puts me off a bit
 
Well my friend---

This is the thing-- Saints are not a good road team, but that does not mean too much tomorrow anyway-

Bears are a pretty good home team- but that does not mean too much--

Bears get exposed when a team spreads them out with 4 wide receivers- They are built to stop teams like the JAGS, who run up the middle, run outside and then throw on 3rd down with only 2 receivers in the pattern vs 5 db's--

Tampa exposed the Bears earlier this year coming back on them in Chicago, they spread them out and used tight ends to beat Linebackers of the bears in pass coverage- Bears linebackers can be weak vs the pass and they dont defend spread attacks very well-
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Well my friend---

This is the thing-- Saints are not a good road team, but that does not mean too much tomorrow anyway-

Bears are a pretty good home team- but that does not mean too much--

Bears get exposed when a team spreads them out with 4 wide receivers- They are built to stop teams like the JAGS, who run up the middle, run outside and then throw on 3rd down with only 2 receivers in the pattern vs 5 db's--

Tampa exposed the Bears earlier this year coming back on them in Chicago, they spread them out and used tight ends to beat Linebackers of the bears in pass coverage- Bears linebackers can be weak vs the pass and they dont defend spread attacks very well-
Click to expand...

Can't argue with that.

I think the big difference here will be a healthy Shockey & Bush. Bears can't cover & can't rush the QB, too much for them to defend tomorrow night.

I also think the 3rd time's a charm here for Payton, he'll have the right gameplan tomorrow.
 
:shake:
3rd & Long said:
Can't argue with that.

I think the big difference here will be a healthy Shockey & Bush. Bears can't cover & can't rush the QB, too much for them to defend tomorrow night.

I also think the 3rd time's a charm here for Payton, he'll have the right gameplan tomorrow.[/quote]

With ya on that bro. Hard for me to pass on NO at the moment . Keep reading the same comment how NO lost in the NFC Championship game 2 seasons ago and the final game of 07 to keep them out of the playoffs.

Now me I am saying okay so they lost but did the cold weather cause them to lose? I dont think it played a role ..

That was a pretty good Bears team in the NFC Championship with a sick defense . NO was solid but would say this NO bunch is just as good as that one. Game was 16-14 mid 3rd Q and that Bears pulled away . No way is this Beras defense anywhere near as good and hard to say the offense is much improved over that one.....Brees had 354 yds passing (27-49)

last year basically the same bears team but the Defense still is probably worse off . No Forte but Berrian also gone . Saints are a better team IMO as Bush was out , no Deuce , SHockey and Moore not there either (Lance was but he was not the same type player obviously)....

Big concern for me is actually NO FG kicker in the cold weather more then anything . ST has been poor for NO all season and the cold will makekicking harder . Struggles punting , kicking FGs and at times in coverage . LYR Hester had a punt return .





Click to expand...
 
Love the bears here, they destroyed them the past two years they met...when rex was playing. Saints are 2-5 on the road, and they basically are not the same team as playing on turf.

Hopefully bears will go down to -2.5...looks like its heading that way
 
The funny thing is before the season started thats all anyone said was how payton and the Saints were road warriors.
 
INJURY NOTE

Kevin Kaesmaharea is out

WILL NOT BE PLAYING

Orton will be able to make quick work of this NO secondary with this news.
 
O-State said:
INJURY NOTE

Kevin Kaesmaharea is out

WILL NOT BE PLAYING

Orton will be able to make quick work of this NO secondary with this news.
Click to expand...


I am not sold on taking Orleans with a line that they have basically to win the game- New Orleans indoor and New Orleans outdoors are 2 different teams-

perhaps what no one is considering that Orleans on the road never just plays a brilliant defensive game. There is a reason why they lose all their road games, its not all offense, thier defense wilts away, doesnt intercept any passes, does not make any sacks. The Defense never steals any games for them--

It will be cold which helps Chicago bigtime because any thing that slows the game makes it advantage Chicago- If this game was in the DOME I think Orleans wins easily by 14 points-

However outside, and also Saints Road D is nothing special, Chicago D while also not amazing is playing at home where it is familiar and capable of playing better--

This is a tough one, but IMO BRees wants to win bad, but I dont see their D having the mentality that they can go in and win in Chicago-

ORton is pretty good at home, they can score the ball, run it and move it. Their D only has issues vs teams that know their personnell and can exploit them--

I have seen Sean Payton and these Saints go in cold weather and the result is usually the same every time.
 
This is true Sammy, this is true.

Saints lone away victory this year was @ KC

they lost @ Denver, @ Washington, @ Carolina, @ TB

you have to be careful taking the Saints on the road unless the matchup is perfect

----this is such a good matchup IMO that I am can not take situational over fundamental

Green Bay spread out Chicago and dominated them, this CHI team can't defend the pass

NO is playing pretty well against the run
 
What concerns me both ways is Brees performances on the road vs Home- He is a completely different player. I am pretty sure that it is mental with him. There is no player in this league that plays better at home than him and subpar on the road-


Brees has thrown 7 Td's on the road and 9 INTERCEPTIONS--- This has to be factored in there with him, his O LINE, the coach, the mental ability, the confidence-

SOMETHING IS NOT THERE ON THE ROAD--

I mean watch Brees at home he can throw for 2 Million yards and 30 Td's and then on the road he looks like it is some other guy in his uniform and the real BREES is kidnapped-

The last 2 times BREES did anything on the road was a prime time game vs DALLAS --

Other than that there is something in BREES heads that affects the whole team which results in them losing games-

THe pass rush seems to affect BREES on the road, he is money at home, also he seems to do signficantly worse on GRASS, not sure if Chicago has natural grass, cause Brees does not do well on that surface, he needs good footing--

I am just playing Devils advocate- I mean all angles have to be considered--

WHen everyone is thinking the same no one is thinking--

How about Forte ripping through a tired New Orleans team, and New Orleans having a ROAD RUSH- meaning no pass rush and ORTON hitting play action on them. How about Orleans being emotionally drained from last win and tired and they cant handle the weather and the rookeis in the secondary just dont show up. How about if its so cold that players cant run fast- How about if the D line of Bears shows up and gets pressure with only 4?

I have taken this Orleans teams in the past and usually got burned, due to BAD D, and then after i say wow I cant believe I bet on this team--

Comes down to trust, I dont think I can trust Orleans on the road due to past behaviour, I dont think I can trust Brees and his 9 PICKS on the road, dont think I can trust a team with no field goal kicker, with its starting safety out, with a coach who presses on the road at any sign of adversity, a dome team playing in cold weather?

I am not in love with Chicago either- Perhaps if both teams are gonna score the OVer may hit, but I know whern weather is cold, spread attacks just dont work with crazy winds and a hard football. It becomes more of a run game-
 
NO is 10-7 away L2 seasons before 2008 .

1-5 Away ? Lets use some commonsense -
Division is 24-2 at home so thats Car , TB and ATL near automatic losses . Which leaves 1-2 mark. They win @ KC , they lose by 2 @ Denver thank Automatica for the missed game winning FG and lost by 5 @ Wash when they whole defense was OUT and Skins rallied in the 4th quarter , oh and you have to count beating SD in London how is that not a road game ? It's like saying the Astros played home games @ Miller Field this past year .

Bears are 1-3 vs winning teams and NO 2-3 . Oh and Bears lost @ ATL , @ carolina and to TB all in very close games but still 0-3 .

Sainst 3-1 so far off a division game and 12-5 last 3 years . Mow Bears 16-8 L24 at home and 23-8 as chalk in that span (L3 years)....

Payback ? Okay 2006 bears winNFC Championship game sending NO home and in 2007 the Bears beat NO on the last day of the season and keep them out of the playoffs. Essentially sending them HOME again and ending their season....Payback time for NO ?

Orton's health ? Hasnt been the same since the ankle injury vs DET and neither has CHI ......
 
Drew Brees is a different QB on the road than he is at home. He has 7 touchdown passes in 6 road games but 16 in 6 home games...one game that I didn't include with the home games was played in England where he had 3 TD passes. Brees also has 10 INT's on the road compared to just 4 at home. His QB rating is much worse on the road than it is at home and his play will be another factor in this game. On grass is QB rating is 86.6 compared to 105.3 on turf. His rating in road games is 76.7 compared to 117.2 in home games.
 
Nut the key question is this payback for the Saints, do they have a good enough team to win in chicago or does bears have theur number?

Even the Eagles moved it all day on the Bears and got stopped at the 1 yard line 4 times, but bears make those kind of lucky plays at home--

They seem to have a lot of luck at home and road teams self distruct at home, not sure if they may have Orleans number.
 
Havent been a fan of taking Brees away in games they need to win to cover . L3 years 19 TDs to 4 INTS in DEC games......

7 TDs vs 10 Ints but wait 3 TDs and 0 Ints @ London which went into his Home stats because of the silly NFL. 30-41 339 yds

193 302 2191yds 10Tds 10Ints real away numbers and real home stats below in bold


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD>6</TD><TD>201</TD><TD>136</TD><TD>67.7</TD><TD>1909</TD><TD>9.50</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>55.9</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>116.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg align=middle><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=10>Passing</TD><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=6>Rushing</TD><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=3>Sacked</TD><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=3>Fumbles</TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> Situation</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=18>G</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>QBRat</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Comp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Int</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Rush</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Avg</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>YdsL</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Fum</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>FumL</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Outdoors</TD><TD class=yspscores>18</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>95.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>467</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>717</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>65.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>5291</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>293.9</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>7.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>35</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>13</TD><TD height='\"16\"'> </TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>42</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0.6</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1</TD><TD height='\"16\"'> </TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>114</TD><TD height='\"16\"'> </TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>3</TD><TD height='\"16\"'> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Indoors</TD><TD class=yspscores>27</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>92.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>658</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>992</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>66.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>7650</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>283.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>7.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>45</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>30</TD><TD height='\"16\"'> </TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>41</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>74</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>2.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD height='\"16\"'> </TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>26</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>167</TD><TD height='\"16\"'> </TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>13</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
.....I recall CHI had GB's number as well prior to this year.

There is a time and place for motivation, situational, etc.

Certainly be wary, but for me it's NO or no play. I can't back the Bears.
 
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