Thursday Night Football (Week Three)...

[emkee]

2-6 (-9.32)

Got 'off the schneid' on Monday night after a brutal start. Looking to string a few wins together.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

The play...

Buccaneers +6.5 (3 units)

Great 'situational' spot for the Bucs here. Waited for a 7 but it's heading back towards the opening line so gonna bite now.

:shake:

 

[braves]

Go em

Is there a trend here? What is the spot for Tampa ?

 

[emkee]

Case of overrated vs underrated.

Dirty Birds' defense is a joke and last I checked were still coached by an idiot in Mike Smith whereas the Bucs are the best of the 0-2 teams and have the most upside, imo. Lovie is as reliable a coach as they come and will right the ship. Still give them a decent shot at the division.

Have had success in the past playing teams that opened the season with 2-straight home games and now go on the road in Week 3 as a small favorite or dog (65-42-4 ATS). The situation gets even stronger if the opponent is coming off a loss (32-12-3 ATS) but in this case it gets even better given Atlanta did not lose their game as a favorite of more than 3-points, as that gets the situation to 28-2-2 ATS (90%) since 1986 (2-0-1 ATS last season).

Bucs also subject to a few other strong Week 3 situations. Would be a bigger play if not for it being played on a Thursday night.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for the the thoughts...seems like an overlay then?

 

[emkee]

When it hit 7 it was very much an overlay, still is to a certain degree. Have it lined at 4 personally (situations aside).

Overreaction to the Bucs poor start even though they were playing two of the NFC's better defenses plus it's being played on a Thursday night with the perception being that the home team always wins on a short week.

Falcons win over the Saints in Week 1 has lost a shit-ton of sheen, just sayin'.

 

[emkee]

Another trend in the Bucs' favor...

Teams that have failed to cover the spread in both of the first 2 weeks are 47-27 ATS on the road in week 3 against a team that is not also 0-2 ATS. The record is better if the away team is not favored by 3 points or more, as week 3 road teams favored by less than 3 or getting points are 42-21 ATS after 2 spread losses if visiting a team that is not also 0-2 ATS (40-18 ATS since 1988).