Thursday Night Football (Week Six)...

[emkee]

11-10 (-1.88)

Not the best start to the season. Shit will turn soon enough.

Got burned last time out with a chalky ML play on the worst winning playcall ever.

Here's some more chalky goodness.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

The play...

Falcons ML -166 (4 to win 2.4)

Ran the numbers and the ML has the better hit rate over time.

Not opposed to laying anything under -190 in the No Fucking Logic.

Elo giving Atlanta a 60% chance straight-up.

Spread also open to 'fuckery' given the 'consensus'.

Dirty Birds the most underrated of all the undefeated teams.

Atlanta won't need Julio to win, they will run all over the worst defense in the league.

:shake:

 

[emkee]

After Week 3, undefeated road faves are hitting straight-up at around 75% in division games.

Road faves also hitting around 68% straight-up on Thursday night.

 

[IvyinBarondise]

After Week 3, undefeated road faves are hitting straight-up at around 75% in division games.

Road faves also hitting around 68% straight-up on Thursday night.

Thursday night games @ 68%? how? What am I missing? There have been 5 games thus far right?

 

[eggman]

Great play. On it at -3 but I'll take my chances. Banged up Falcons scares me but a nice bounce back situation from an almost miss last week against a shitty Skins team.

 

[emkee]

Thursday night games @ 68%? how? What am I missing? There have been 5 games thus far right?

That's road faves on Thursday night the last 64 games (44-20-0). Straight-up not ATS, ATS is hitting at about 55%.

 

[emkee]

Great play. On it at -3 but I'll take my chances. Banged up Falcons scares me but a nice bounce back situation from an almost miss last week against a shitty Skins team.

Helps that the Saints defense is non-existent. Have them bottom 3 in all my rankings and rated overall as the worst in terms of efficiency.

 

[emkee]

Home dogs off a 20+ point non-division road loss are 17-40 SU (26-30-1 ATS) when playing a divisional opponent since 2011.

 

[Metallica]

GL tonight Emkee :cheers3:

 

[twinkie13]

Saints blow

GL

 

[Tito]

gl tonight emkee

 

[emkee]

Thanks fellas.

Home dogs in division games where the total is greater than or equals 50 are 6-20 SU since 2006.

 

[emkee]

Worth noting that Jimmy Graham used to kill the Falcons.

Saints O-line also beat up pretty bad. Not good for a team that has turned the ball over a ton to start the season.

 

[emkee]

Short week off an OT game is my only concern for the Dirty Birds, pretty bad historical numbers there.

But the Falcons are the best team in the league on a short week in the Matty Ice era.

Trends and counter-trends.

Have to trust the predicted #'s on that brutal Saints defense vs the Falcons offense.

Saints also a real bad redzone team.

We shall see.

 

[emkee]

ML at -155 now.

 

[austinhous]

I have a trend for you. It is teams playing on Thursday night after going into overtime in the previous game.

 

[emkee]

I have a trend for you. It is teams playing on Thursday night after going into overtime in the previous game.

Saw that. Sample decreases dramatically for a road fave in a division game though. Divisional games are a different animal.

As mentioned Atlanta has been great on 5 or less days rest in the Matt Ryan era.

Will take my chances with the Dirty Bird rush attack vs the Nawlins' defense.

If I'm wrong so be it.

 

[emkee]

OT lasted all of 2:45 mins vs the Skins.

 

[Play2win]

BOL Emkee

 

[emkee]

I have a trend for you. It is teams playing on Thursday night after going into overtime in the previous game.

Also if you look up teams that surrendered 500+ yards vs their previous opponent and are a home dog you get brutal numbers.

Much more in support of the visiting team and the numbers provided by the Saints defense tell no lies.

 

[austinhous]

OT lasted all of 2:45 mins vs the Skins.

I know. That is the first weakness I thought of with that angle as well. It's not like it was knock-down drag out for ten minutes. Yep, I feel you. BOL tonight man.

:cheers:

 

[The Farm]

:shake:

 

[emkee]

BOL Emkee

:shake:

 

[emkee]

I know. That is the first weakness I thought of with that angle as well. It's not like it was knock-down drag out for ten minutes. Yep, I feel you. BOL tonight man.

:cheers:

Thanks man.

 

[emkee]

:shake:

:shake:

 

[emkee]

Got some work to do.

 

[twinkie13]

team still sucks Em

problem is it is the NFL.....tough place to make money

tough tough tough place to make money.....5 fumbles whatever....I would play it the same again

 

[emkee]

All good Twink, it's only Week 6. Rather shit the bed early than late.

Got my 'square phase' out of the way. Back to back primetime ML's, smh.

Got a few units back on the Falcons +10.5 in-game.

Your boys 3rd rate scrubby O-line also didn't commit a penalty all night, go figure.

One more thing.

That blocked punt almost seemed scripted, it was like Moses parting the red sea. The lane to the punter was that big.

How fitting on Steve Gleason night even.

Til Sunday brother.