Thursday Night Football (Week One)...

[emkee]

Record goes here.

Mixed bag last couple of seasons as my 'systems' adjust to the 'new' NFL.

Expecting better things this year into next.

1st week is what it is.

Thursday...

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos

The play...

Panthers ML -157 (3 to win 1.89)

Probably a game better left alone going by the 'trends'.

No way I'm laying a juiced 3 but will gladly take the relatively cheap ML.

I'm a firm believer that defenses drop off more than offenses the following year after great seasons.

And the Doncos had that great a season defensively in 2015/16, the only way they can go is down.

Have to step away so more thoughts in a bit.

:shake2:

 

[TroyStacks]

I disagree about Off and Def...

However I think you are on the right side and I'm on the UNDER 41.5 because defenses should be ahead of offenses the first few weeks of the year. Lots of clock being burned.

GL this season Emkee!

 

[emkee]

Thanks Troy.

Defenses are too hard to predict season to season because the parts are always in motion,

Whereas offense for the most part stays mostly consistent to it's performances given most teams basically hold the same QB year to year.

That's a basic take anyhow.

Doncos' 'D' isn't gonna drop off a lot but they lost a pair of key cogs, no way in hell do they repeat what they did last season on defense.

Defense will definitely have some regression to the mean given the moving parts.

Chicken Parm was a corpse, having a QB that can actually move in the pocket will help going forward,

But initially on offense they'll miss CP's intellect on reads etc.

Panthers have improved on offense with Benjamin back,

And I can't see their still pretty stout D getting tested by 'Semen' at all in his first game.

If Vegas is gonna mess with this game it'll be via the spread in some shape or form, I'm that confident Carolina wins straight-up.

Either by 1, 2, 3 or more.

 

[emkee]

In all honesty though, making a read on the spread.

Giving that perceived 'great' defense 3 points in Mile High will be too hard to pass up for a lot of people.

Panthers not as square as they appear.

 

[emkee]

Hearing some folks legitimately say Semen is an upgrade over Chicken Parm straight away.

Panthers' front-7 will feast on this kid.

 

[emkee]

What will be most interesting is to see how Kubiack runs the offense without Peyton's IQ behind him.

Panthers gonna force a lot of long 2nd and 3rd downs.

 

[DeadEyeDuckie]

hi emkee, I was considering what you brought up about Denver's defense most likely dropping off and having lost some key pieces. I agree with that assessment as I just don't see them reproducing the performance of last year's defense, but one thing I wonder though...perhaps the scheme and strategy they utilized against Cam in the Super Bowl would still be enough for them here at home? They really seemed to figure out a way to defend Cam and frustrate him, I'm just wondering if the dropoff occurs right away and Cam/Panthers are able to make enough corrections/adjustments from the Super Bowl.

Chicken Parm not being there anymore cannot be stressed enough though imo, as the IQ and experience cannot be replaced, especially with this youngster. I'm actually really starting to like the Under the more I think about it.

 

[gsro]

BOL Em,

 

[C-MAN]

Seeing things the same tonight. Think Car can have success with the passing game tonight. KB back is huge. GL

 

[cxbbum]

like it Em, bol this season

 

[emkee]

Thanks fellas.

Overpaid by the looks, ML is -140 in some places.

Actually welcome the steam going the other way.

 

[emkee]

If the Black Cats get a lead early this game will be over.

 

[CenTexGambler]

BOL this Season emcee.

 

[CHSGTMD]

BOL all season Em, always look forward to your info and picks.

 

[Tito]

gl emkee :shake:

 

[bones]

Have a great season Emkee. :shake:

 

[emkee]

Thanks fellas.

Tweaked the 'system' this season,

Basing it on the scheduling (some teams have it top heavy, others have it back heavy), a SOS using the CG Tech advance lines (Weeks 1-16),

and the always reliable ELO.

Tonight's game is a little skewed,

Advance spread was Denver -1.5 (opened around April), ELO has it at Denver -2.5 but that doesn't take into account the QB change.

Adjusting for the QB, I get Carolina at a pick 'em being the 1st game of the season.

 

[Rich_D]

Yeah, my formulas have Denver (5-1) .Just like in the SB (WIN) (5-2) . And thats what they are using at this point , last year .

But the Denver Rookie QB thing puts a kink in the wrench this early in season.

My head says Panthers

 

[cxbbum]

Actually welcome the steam going the other way.

indeed

 

[emkee]

Knew as soon as Gano continued with his kick after the TO call and it went over, that the 2nd one would miss.

Grats Donks backers.

See y'all Sunday.