Thursday Night Football (Week Four)...

[emkee]

8-6 (+3.92)

3-1 in Week 3.

Got through the first 3 weeks with minimal damage where you're basically 'flying blind' for the most part.

Now we should have a fair idea about which teams have it and which teams don't.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

The play...

Bengals -7.5 +102 (2 to win 2.04)

Will elaborate with a few random thoughts later.

Solid spot for the Bungles either way.

opcorn:

 

[braves]

good luck, agree with the play

 

[Metallica]

Let get it, GL tonight Em.

 

[emkee]

Braves, Metallica...

:shake2:

 

[emkee]

Fins a banged-up team, off an OT game and on a short week.

It's one of the better 'situation-fade' spots in the NFL, given the league has so few because there are only 17 weeks in a season.

Teams off a Sunday OT game and playing on a Thursday are 4-20 ATS (6-18 SU).

Fins also have O-line issues - injury and otherwise, 3rd down conversion issues and struggle to score,

Have only mustered one 1st half TD all season.

Tannehill is the most sacked QB in the league since 2012 and the Bungles are currently tied for the most sacks this season.

A 'get right' game for Cincy, they should win by 10+.

 

[nbafan88]

Agree. Gl bud.

 

[Play2win]

Agree situation angle, GL em.

 

[ConorB]

I am on Miami +7.5 and on the ML but BOL anyway my friend!

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

With u, GL.

Tannenhill on the road in a tough atmosphere with a short week to prepare spells disaster. I see this being another typical UGLY TNF game. Something like 24-10 FINAL.

 

[ConorB]

Guys I might be wrong because I don't know a lot about American sports (I love to bet football but I know other people know more than me so I follow them, my sports are Horse racing and soccer) but it seems like people put really ALOT into the 'situational side', e.g. This week Miami are coming off a short week because they played Sunday but the Bengals also played on Sunday?

It's just something I don't fully understand, does it really matter as much as people say? I can understand last week GB had a good spot back in Lambeau after so many road games but sometimes I think people over play these things, I mean these are professional athletes at a very high level... And I know that the situations have some effect but is it really a lot in NFL? Would it be more on College ball?

Thanks guys!!,
C

 

[ConorB]

With u, GL.

Tannenhill on the road in a tough atmosphere with a short week to prepare spells disaster. I see this being another typical UGLY TNF game. Something like 24-10 FINAL.

What I mean is the Bengals have had a short week too but I know they play at home,, and I mean these teams will have big researching staff and scouts who will have the team very prepared for every game - maybe I am wrong you guys are the experts!!

 

[emkee]

Tired so without saying too much ConorB, here's basically why the Bungles have a 'situational' advantage...

Cincy played at home the previous week so have less interruption in their preparation for tonight's game whereas Miami had to travel,

So their preparation is obviously interrupted.

Miami is also pretty beat-up with 16 players on the injury report which makes their assignment a little tougher.

The subtle key to this one though is the fact Miami played OT which further decreases the recovery/prep time.

Add to the fact Miami has a rookie head coach in this particular spot for the first time trying to prepare his team,

And it gives us pretty good grounds for a Cincy play.

 

[ConorB]

Awesome thanks emkee!! Wouldn't these factors be worked into the line though?.. I guess it depends on how much weight anybody gives to each factor and if we think the line is off then we have a bet!

Thanks for you answer and BOL!

 

[Tito]

gl em, think I'm playing it too

 

[emkee]

Thanks fellas.

Much to like about Cincy tonight, hopefully they do what's expected of them and deliver the result.

 

[KJ]

Get it em, situation is great no doubt. I even put a bit on half numero uno

 

[Play2win]

Factor in other Mia travel this season and the way Mia lost some tough ones, huge game for Cin and short week road numbers make the situation huge.

 

[hugh613]

Good luck emkee.

 

[Play2win]

Came across this one on twitter:

Thursday games, >6 pt favorite, non-divisional matchup, last 10 years... favorites are 23-2 SU and 17-7-1 ATS

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

GL em