Thursday Night Football (Week Eight)...

[emkee]

17-14 (+6)

4-1 (+7) in Week 7.

Dropping this one early and it's extremely square and sinful, so I expect to get maximum shit for it.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The play...

Panthers ML -250 (2.5 to win 1)

Avoiding the spread entirely and looking to turn a small profit on the always 'iffy' Thursday night game. Reasons in a bit.

:wtf2:

 

[Play2win]

Great week #7, keep it going Em. BOL :shake:

 

[emkee]

Random slightly inebriated thoughts,

Panthers ahead of the Bucs in almost every key stat. Tampa are a team that struggles to get yardage and are the 31st most penalized team in the league. In the Bucs 2 wins against Carolina last season, Doug Martin tore that ass up especially the most recent meeting where he broke off 138 yards - homeboy ain't there on Thursday night. Even though Freeman stunk out NY on Monday, he's still a better QB than Glennon. Panthers' D ain't no joke (ranked 3rd overall in the league), 4th against the run and 5th against the pass. Bucs' D is decent but for some reason they seem to let down at home and the overall numbers prove it. Speaking of home, Bucs are 3-8 SU (0-3 this season) under Schiano in Tampa. Confident the Panthers win by 7+ but extremely confident they win, just couldn't personally lay the points with Rivera and the percentages of a SU victory over an ATS victory increase rather dramatically within this point range.

Since 2003,

Road faves of 5.5-7.5 are 90-93-4 ATS (49%) but 135-52 SU (72%)

Since 2010,

Road faves of 5.5-7.5 are 30-35-2 ATS (46%) but 45-22 SU (67%)

 

[twinkie13]

wozers em..

GL

 

[emkee]

I know, Twink.

Scam -250

:line:

 

[emkee]

A couple of ATS trends...

Bucs 9-23 ATS last 32 home games.

Bucs 4-11 ATS as a home dog since 2009.

 

[emkee]

Fly in the ointment is the weak Carolina O-line but the Bucs have zero pass rush. Panthers 3 convincing wins on the season have come against teams with similar pass rush/sack stats to Tampa Bay...

 

[emkee]

Panthers 33-12 ATS (39-6 SU) versus poor offensive teams (17 points per game and under, Bucs currently averaging 14.5 ppg) in team history...

 

[IvyinBarondise]

should look into the under here....if you wanna go moneyline you don't think car's gonna put up a ton of points obv...tb might very well stay within single digits...i like the under...and thursdays are usually lower scoring just b/c the teams have a shorter week to prepare

 

[BetCrimes1984]

and thursdays are usually lower scoring just b/c the teams have a shorter week to prepare

Thurs. games have gone 5-2 to Over so far this season. Mostly all primetime games (14 of 22, 63.6%) have been happy places for points scored (only 4 winning teams have scored less than 26 pts). Day games have been the best hunting ground for Unders. (Conspiracy angle - refs have an agenda to sell the sport in the most noticable games: they're the 1-off games with no other competing games on at the same time.) Still, the key within all primetime games has been answering the following question:

What will the loser score?

Games in which the loser has scored 10 pts or less, have gone 6-0 to Under.

Games in which the loser has scored at least 11 pts, have gone 14-2 to Over.

Win or lose Carolina surely crosses 10 pts, so does Tampa as well? If your answer is yes, then bet Under at your own peril.

 

[austinhous]

Good stuff. BC always on point with the over/under trends like the very profitable Yankees and Rangers O/U this past baseball season.

:thumbsup2:

 

[D-Woww]

I like where youre heads at...i teased kc to -2 and carolina -.5 to avoid the juice for a small play

 

[emkee]

Billboard in Tampa...

 

[Hawaiiguy]

probably my favorite poster for over a decade......

i wanted both college dogs for some action.....and i also felt Carolina was the best play without the points.

seeing your post, showed my the obvious....6 point tease Carolina to each college dog.

 

[emkee]

Much respect, HG. Good luck tonight.

 

[Gorg]

All action at my book on ts ps and straights on CAR. Want to take the points and root for ur ML. I might ...