Thursday Night Football -- Green Bay @ Detroit

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Staff member
Time for a good old-fashioned standalone discussion thread.

We have hit December and the fact we have such a huge divisional game on Thursday Night Football is pretty cool.

Detroit hasn't lost since Week #2 vs Tampa at this same venue

Green Bay has lost 3 games this season. The last was versus these same Lions in quite a weather event at Lambeau back to start off November.

Interestingly enough, the Packers 3 losses are to the teams directly above them in the NFC standings.

Let's think back to these:

-Open season in Brazil and lose a wild one to the Eagles 31-29.

-Minnesota came into Lambeau and beat the brakes off the Packers till rally late made the score respectable.

-Detroit played their first true outdoor game in Green Bay and pretty much dominated the Packers.

So, are the simply the 4th best team in the conference with a bit of a gap? Or, is this a team that is closer to to the top that we have seen?

They have a chance here in the last 5 weeks to make up the losses to their NFC Norris rivals!

Conversely, the Detroit Lions have just kept on winning since the 17th of September. With that being said, the injuries are piling up. Big-time.

BOTH teams honestly are at the mercy of the league here playing their 3rd games in 12 days. That is insane. At least they both play on Thanksgiving so their isn't a true advantage one way or another. In my opinion though, Detroit has a bit more of a disadvantage due to the injuries.

Last year, Detroit won pretty convincingly early on in in Green Bay only to lose at home on Ford Field. That game was on Thanksgiving for what it is worth. The Packers passed the ball at will to be honest. Detroit made a run in the 2nd half but OL injuries gave Goff very little time to operate.

This game will be interesting. I am curious on the Detroit gameplan. They do like to veer at times after starting off strong running the ball. That is a big pet peeve of mine but it's tough to question Ben Johnson. IMO, I see Green Bay being able to move the ball much better than the 1st game.

Why?

1. No weather factor
2. Detroit secondary issues
3. Detroit injuries in general
4. Faster track inside on turf

I have been pretty committed to a shootout for weeks now in this game. That has only been strengthened by the injury woes for Detroit. The lack of rest goes into this as well.

What do you all say?

Line currently is 3.5 and 51

Honestly, I expect Detroit to lose one of these next two at home (Packers and Bills).
 
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Blurb from Action yesterday supporting under, I've only read their emails beginning this season and it's usually to sway me off of something if anything, can count on one finger the number of times they actually flipped my opinion and it was a regular season baseball game in Summer. That said if you like this kind of thing and find it useful, I find their angles fascinating at times.

Action Network W14 Unders
 
Considering J Love passing yards over teased down to around the 225-229 mark with GB +10.5.
Still not sure what to make of all the injuries and who may be coming back
 
Considering all the injuries on defense, I would expect the Lions to rely heavily on Gibbs & Montgomery in an effort to keep the defense off the field as much as possible.
 
dg84 said:
Considering all the injuries on defense, I would expect the Lions to rely heavily on Gibbs & Montgomery in an effort to keep the defense off the field as much as possible.
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This would be ideal.

But, will they do this all game?

They went away from it in the 2h last week.
 
KJ said:
Blurb from Action yesterday supporting under, I've only read their emails beginning this season and it's usually to sway me off of something if anything, can count on one finger the number of times they actually flipped my opinion and it was a regular season baseball game in Summer. That said if you like this kind of thing and find it useful, I find their angles fascinating at times.

Action Network W14 Unders
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Some excellent stuff here.
 
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I'm thinking props- Lions going to pound the run I would think.

Packers tt o23.5- If the Pack wins/covers chances are they're going to have to put up 24+. Lean Pack +pts but I think tt is best option

Gibbs longest rush o17.5 only would have lost 3x all season. Been hitting this every week

Montgomery rush yds o58.5 Can easily see him getting over 60

Watson o48.5- no Doubs I'd think Warson gets more targets
 
Lexington 125 said:
I'm thinking props- Lions going to pound the run I would think.

Packers tt o23.5- If the Pack wins/covers chances are they're going to have to put up 24+. Lean Pack +pts but I think tt is best option

Gibbs longest rush o17.5 only would have lost 3x all season. Been hitting this every week

Montgomery rush yds o58.5 Can easily see him getting over 60

Watson o48.5- no Doubs I'd think Warson gets more targets
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Tailed ya with that Gibbs prop last week.

Yes, GB TT is a really good bet imo.

Carlton Davis is back. That definitely helps the Detroit secondary.

Watson a popular waiver wire guy this week.
 
B.A.R. said:
Tailed ya with that Gibbs prop last week.

Yes, GB TT is a really good bet imo.

Carlton Davis is back. That definitely helps the Detroit secondary.

Watson a popular waiver wire guy this week.
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my guy Big Z has revived the pass rush! Leads the league with 17 pressures since joining Lions in week 11.

also read that Love ranks 38 out of 41 (qualified QBs) in QB rating against man coverage and 39th in success rate against man which the Lions use at a league high 43% of the time. Love leads the league in EPA/dropback vs four or fewer rushers but drops all the way down to second to worst in the league when blitzed. That's wild. Lions blitzing at second highest rate in league since Hutch went down.

and with Jaire out again I just can't get there with Pack
 
Grind_4_Mine said:
my guy Big Z has revived the pass rush! Leads the league with 17 pressures since joining Lions in week 11.

also read that Love ranks 38 out of 41 (qualified QBs) in QB rating against man coverage and 39th in success rate against man which the Lions use at a league high 43% of the time. Love leads the league in EPA/dropback vs four or fewer rushers but drops all the way down to second to worst in the league when blitzed. That's wild. Lions blitzing at second highest rate in league since Hutch went down.

and with Jaire out again I just can't get there with Pack
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Great stuff Grind.

We love Rasheed...er Za a lot!

Perfect fit for these club. Even before the trade I read up a lot about him -- highly regarded by teammates and fans.

Huge pickup.
 
I think the path to the most success for lions passing game is short stuff to Gibbs. Packers have not been good containing running backs in the passing games and as you know nobody is more lesthal than Gibbs in space! I’d think this a tougher game for st brown cause packers have a legit shut down corner. Maybe that opens up my guy Jamison Williams to git them for a few big plays. Lot of how this game looks gonna come down to Lafluer, I know he prefers running the ball but with all the defensive injuries lions have took I think their d is far more vulnerable to be passed on. I’m hoping it doesn’t take lions building a lead for him to go to air and that a good amount his scripted plays are passes, im not sure there a better coach in the league than lefluer when it comes to the scripted plays, used to be a knock cause packers lost a lot of steam after those plays were done but think he has improved a great deal in that area, having Jacobs to pound the ball prob doesn’t hurt! I just think packers would be wise to run a lot of play action tonight and take shots to the outside WRs. Will they do this or will he remain conservative Is the greatest mystery to this game for me, I gotta believe he smart enough to know this gams he would be wise to throw to open up the run game, if he comes out trying to pound Jacobs they will be down 14-0 in a blink of an eye imo.
 
As I've tried to make this a 38-34 type of game, it simply doesn't go there

This is likely the cliche Gibbs/Monty/LaPorta TD type game which is obviously 21 pts for Detroit so factor that in....how does GB keep up? I don't think they do but theey are built for this kind of game. Don't put me down for saying it but I think GB have the better coaching staff, just don't think they have enough talent here.

GB team total under is very much on my radar
 
lafleur really does mash in december although only slightly over 50% ats. he starts quick. i could see pack 1H/det 2H on a massive 3Q. just my amateur take not tryin to hang my hat on that outcome
 
Taking unders on props this month will likely make youa tad wealthy without doing any work

December overreaction props baiting overs has to be the greatest book overreach in life

Invest wisely...betting on unders by the end of the 5h3 mon5 2ill hqf3 qn insane return that a hedge fund couuld only wish to enjoy
 
I’m not going to try and overthink or overcap this one. I think the Lions are just a better team, and by a decent amount.

Simply looking at who these teams have played, who they have each beaten, who they haven’t beaten, and those margins of victory in many games is very telling.

I don’t think injuries are a big deal here, as the Packers have their share of injuries as well.

I think there’s some value in this line, as I would’ve put it closer to 5. My gut tells me we see a game with a similar margin of victory to their first matchup earlier this season.
 
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Regarding the first game I remember many people saying Goff outside in nasty weather has no chance to lead the Lions to an win at Lambeau and the Lions ran all over the Packers that I switched off and went to bed way earlier than expected.

I won't put much into these December records as there is only a small database, but I think LaFleur will have his lessons learned after being embarrassed on home turf. Lions of course have a very good coaching staff, nevertheless give a slight edge to LaFleur. Talentwise Lions clearly way better than the Packers but injuries may come into play.

If the Lions can get to Love he will make mistakes, so I expect the Packers to rely on the run as well as the Lions to keep the offense off the field.

Would like to take the points, but after the Lions almost choking the game against the Bears away, Campbell will have learned his lessons as well. And so the Lions will come out focused to control the game and the time.

The above mentioned TT Packers over seems to be the best bet.
 
emg2525 said:
I’m not going to try and overthink or overcap this one. I think the Lions are just a better team, and by a decent amount.

Simply looking at who these teams have played, who they have each beaten, who they haven’t beaten, and those margins of victory in many games is very telling.

I don’t think injuries are a big deal here, as the Packers have their share of injuries as well.

I think there’s some value in this line, as I would’ve put it closer to 5. My gut tells me we see a game with a similar margin of victory to their first matchup earlier this season.
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I seriously thing a 24-3 CATS win will only remind us it's Thursday. Not a huge game for me....I do think Leos bleed clock like it's their job this week

Likely GB team total under for me but it's not a market I've been paying attention to
 
emg2525 said:
I’m not going to try and overthink or overcap this one. I think the Lions are just a better team, and by a decent amount.

Simply looking at who these teams have played, who they have each beaten, who they haven’t beaten, and those margins of victory in many games is very telling.

I don’t think injuries are a big deal here, as the Packers have their share of injuries as well.

I think there’s some value in this line, as I would’ve put it closer to 5. My gut tells me we see a game with a similar margin of victory to their first matchup earlier this season.
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Good point about the line.

I use a base 3.5 in the NFL and I'd bump up the hornets nest that is Ford Field a half point at least.
 
B.A.R. said:
Good point about the line.

I use a base 3.5 in the NFL and I'd bump up the hornets nest that is Ford Field a half point at least.
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Hmm

I've gotten to the point that I think road games are an advantage for away offenses with what these dudes get paid. Home likely gives one advantage....to the defense on 3rd down. It's borderline obsolete for me.
 
horses said:
For HFA?
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Yes.

Home team favored by 3.5 would be a PK on neutral in this series.

I know many use 3...I use the VK way of changing it up a bit between venues

Good home friends I use 3.5 to 4.

I'd go 2.5 - 3.0 for a place that doesnt sell out.
 
KJ said:
Hmm

I've gotten to the point that I think road games are an advantage for away offenses with what these dudes get paid. Home likely gives one advantage....to the defense on 3rd down. It's borderline obsolete for me.
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Many variables in football.

- noise indoor
- outdoor elements
-officating in a few of these venues.

I'm going to treat Autzen stadium different than Spartan Stadium.

Arrowhead receives a different number than Redskins Stadium (in this century ).
 
B.A.R. said:
Many variables in football.

- noise indoor
- outdoor elements
-officating in a few of these venues.

I'm going to treat Autzen stadium different than Spartan Stadium.

Arrowhead receives a different number than Redskins Stadium (in this century ).
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I'm actually moving away from that and not gonna lie, it's difficult

Comparing Autzen to Arrowhead isn't reall fair, the QB in KC isa already on a 250 milly contract and set for life. The QB at Autzen might get 2 milly and a Nike deal
 
Please just make this the in game

We clearly have opinions on one game, this seems the right place to tell everyone else how much they suck at this
 
GB +3.5 for me. Lean under too but not enough to bet it.

This feels like a 26-23 game either way for me.

Good discussion on HFA. Its intresting because I feel like HFA has been diminishing over the past few years as travel gets easier and teams learn to adapt to the noise of opposing stadiums. I use 2.25 as a baseline now and also adjust for some fields that I think have greater (eg Lambeau) or lesser HFAs.
 
Hulu said:
GB +3.5 for me. Lean under too but not enough to bet it.

This feels like a 26-23 game either way for me.

Good discussion on HFA. Its intresting because I feel like HFA has been diminishing over the past few years as travel gets easier and teams learn to adapt to the noise of opposing stadiums. I use 2.25 as a baseline now and also adjust for some fields that I think have greater (eg Lambeau) or lesser HFAs.
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Travel certainly is much better.

Don't tell that to NBA players. They actually like they are playing 3 games in 3 days and riding a train.
 
I really have no feel for who wins this game. No chance I’d fade lions getting less than a td but if love plays well and lafluer comes out aggressive throwing the ball I do think packers can hang. I worry they try to establish Jacobs too much when I think play action be the way to hurt lions. Save Jacobs for later in the game.
 
Loves2kickass said:
No value with either side. Line about right. I'll just sit back and watch this one.
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I went for some fat paying Alf props and a few sgp’s w reg numbers. Super high on Gibbs ov 20.5 rec, laporta ov 34.5 rec, love me some Williams so went 90+ and tuddy at bout 7-1. Took a small stab on wicks 50+ rec, that paid pretty nice. Put few reg numbers together on those guys and love passing. Hoping lafluer comes out aggressive and this isn’t a slug it out run game. Feel like lions defensive weakness is def thru the air. And packers have struggled with running backs out of backfield which why I love Gibbs. He could take 1 swing pass or screen 21+! Tough game to bet side I agree but think there some ok props that could hit here! If I had any balls I’d bet the under even tho it contradicts most my prop plays think it sneaks just under 51.5, something like 27-23.
 
I’d like to play Watson but I went wicks cause Watson gets hurt every time he runs a damn route!
 
2daBank said:
I’d like to play Watson but I went wicks cause Watson gets hurt every time he runs a damn route!
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Mfer catches a ball like 1 yard short and comes up lame and doesn’t come back in game, I just can’t deal with that shit. It hard enough without having to worry bout dude getting hurt!
 
rambler882 said:
Lions by 17
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You think? Can prob Get really nice odds lions -10.5 or -14.5, I actually think it gonna be closer. Not sure If packers hang all game over love brings them storming back to make it close. I feel like 7 poiints either way most it be, think we in for a classic
 
B.A.R. said:
I've said 31-28 for a bit now.


New prediction

33-26

If Detroit runs the ball 38+ times...

37-20
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Really don’t wanna see that many rushes! Suppose could live w Gibbs 90+ abs a td. Hoping we see this one open up the passing games. I really feel like it finna be a close back and forth affair.
 
B.A.R. said:
Travel certainly is much better.

Don't tell that to NBA players. They actually like they are playing 3 games in 3 days and riding a train.
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The Ritz in PHX actually has one floor fitted with 7 foot beds. Them dudes aren't staying in regular hotels...

Think the Milwaukee haunted hotel is the best of the lot
 
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