Thursday NHL picks

Unicorn

Unicorn

NHL Enthusiast
Hey everyone!

A losing night in NHL yesterday but one of the best nights in NBA in my life which completely erased bad taste left from losing my NHL 2-teamer.

As for tonight, I have just started to cap the card, but one play immediately caught my attention:


San Jose/Columbus Over 5.5 +100 (1 Unit)

Without trying to figure out will SJ be able to get another multiple-goal home win or Blue Jackets maybe pull an upset tonight, I've focused more on total for this game. My observation about this matchup is up to some point similar to my observation when Columbus played at Detroit, less than a week ago. Blue Jackets had very high in-game goal scoring in that game (18.8% - all 3 goals scored this way) while they also had a lot of scoring opportunities from PP (19mins) but Detroit somehow managed to contain them in each of those opportunities.

A quick comparison between Red Wings and Sharks (both at home):

Shooting (%)
DET 9.4
SJ 10.3

Opponent shooting (%)
DET 11.2%
SJ 8.3%

Power Play (%)
DET 28.9
SJ 26.5

Penalty Kill (%)
DET 11.1%
SJ 14%

So, while Sharks have been a little harder on their opponents in 5-on-5 situations, their Penalty Kill isn't so good as Detroit's. Now, Columbus is known for a very good 5-on-5 game (season average 9.7% shooting) but their Power Play has been bad (10.3% season average) and lately a pure disaster (only 3.6% over their last 5 games). But with the way Sharks have been allowing goals to be scored against them on the opponents PP, I believe Columbus may be able to score some goals tonight on their PP chances. For an example, I'll mention their first and only meeting this season, 14.10 in San Jose when Columbus scored 33% on their PP in a 2-5 loss.

Also, some additional numbers which direct me towards the Over in this one:

- CLB is 7-4 to Over in their road games
- SJ is 8-5 to Over in their home games

- CLB is 5-1 to Over on 2 days rest
- SJ is 7-3 to Over on 1 day rest

- CLB is on a 3-game streak of scoring 3 goals per game after going 4 straight games over which they scored exactly 2 goals per game
- SJ is on a 9-game streak of scoring at least 3 goals per game (avg. 4.78 goals)


...on to capping the rest of the card, cya later

:cheers:
 
What you guys think about Phoenix tonight?

Tbh, I was a bit confused with the line. I think they should be more favored. Here's some stuff from my observation:

- there was only 1 game in '07 and one in '06 played between those two teams with Phoenix winning each game and even going 1-0 ATS at home

- TOR 3-7 over L10, scoring 3 times more than 3 goals but at the same time allowing 5 times more than 3 goals
- TOR 2-6 SU off allowing 5 or more goals in their previous game

- PHO 3-7 over L10, but 3-1 over L4
- PHO averaging 2.75 goals for over L4 after averaging only 1.67 goals over previous 6 games (offense improving)
- PHO allowed only 2 goals scored against on average over L4 after averaging 3.83 goals against in previous 6 games (improved defense)

- TOR 5-4 SU on 1 day rest off a loss
- PHO 1-3 SU on 1 day rest off a win

- Mayers (TOR, RW - missed their last game vs SJ) is out for 3-4 weeks with a broken hand

- Tellqvist in a goal for PHO, facing his former team
- Tellqvist 3-1 over his L4 starts, allowing 2,1,1,2 goals with .955 save%
- Tellqvist 3-2-0 at home with 1.64 GAA and .950 save%

- Toronto playing their 3rd game in 4 days (therefore expecting slightly less defensive effort from them)


The line on Phoenix was 1.769 this morning (at Pinnacle) but now it's 1.800 (?!). Public seems to be favoring Phoenix a bit more than Toronto...
 
ever since the Sens game Toskala has seemed to play really well.

he was hung out to dry vs the Sharks and then the floodgates opened up. If i were to personally take anything for PHX it would be in the first period. DOnt have the stats on me, but the Leafs give up the first goal at an alarming pace and lose the first period at a similar pace.
 
Santacapper said:
ever since the Sens game Toskala has seemed to play really well.

he was hung out to dry vs the Sharks and then the floodgates opened up. If i were to personally take anything for PHX it would be in the first period. DOnt have the stats on me, but the Leafs give up the first goal at an alarming pace and lose the first period at a similar pace.
Click to expand...

Thanks, buddy.

Will definitely consider this if I decide to go with Phoenix after all.

Just checked, and Toskala is lifetime 8-2-1 with two shutouts and 2.33 GAA vs. Phoenix.

The whole game smells like a trap...

:shake:
 
Santacapper said:
ever since the Sens game Toskala has seemed to play really well.

he was hung out to dry vs the Sharks and then the floodgates opened up. If i were to personally take anything for PHX it would be in the first period. DOnt have the stats on me, but the Leafs give up the first goal at an alarming pace and lose the first period at a similar pace.
Click to expand...

I have those stats handy..

Toronto in the 1st period: 6W-13L-4 Draws
Phoenix in the 1st period: 6W-7L-10 Draws

Phoenix has scored the first goal 4 times in 12 home games
Toronto has scored the first goal 4 times in 13 road games

Though this is just a hunch but I think Toronto might score the first goal tonight. And they are 1-3 when they do.
 
Unicorn said:
Thanks, buddy.

Will definitely consider this if I decide to go with Phoenix after all.

Just checked, and Toskala is lifetime 8-2-1 with two shutouts and 2.33 GAA vs. Phoenix.

The whole game smells like a trap...

:shake:
Click to expand...

Toskala also has good thursday numbers. But are we sure Toskala is starting, seems a good spot to put Joseph in.
 
Wow!

Thanks for the stats update, cat!

Definitely staying away from this game... there are other (better) possible bets and games on the board.

Cheers guys!

:shake:
 
Toronto in the 1st period: 6W-13L-4 Draws
Click to expand...

just went back too, lol... think you missed 2 games (theyve played 25)... both Leaf losses in the first period... 6-15-4 is what I have

I think 3 or 4 of the wins were in the first 8 games too.
 
Santacapper said:
just went back too, lol... think you missed 2 games (theyve played 25)... both Leaf losses in the first period... 6-15-4 is what I have

I think 3 or 4 of the wins were in the first 8 games too.
Click to expand...

Yes I forgot the december games:tiphat:
 
Adding:

New Jersey +125 (0.66 Units)

NY Rangers +131 (1 Unit)

Boston -0.5 +112 (0.66 Units)

Florida +105 (0.66 Units)

2-team parlay +157 (0.66 Units): NY Islanders +1.5 & Carolina ML


After spending most of the day on capping, this has become a huge card for me.

But considering I've got only 1 play in NBA, I've allowed myself to go all the way on NHL picks (although risking this amount of units in one single day gives me some doubts... but hopefully it turns out to be just fine day)

Eh, forgot to mention TREND ON THURSDAY so far into the season:

OVERALL: Underdogs are so far 24-28 +4.92 Units (35-17 ATS) while only 4/52 games went to OT (7.7%)

(maybe this doesn't mean much for most of you guys, but I keep tracking those things for each day of the week while trying to find some pattern or if one or more days have been more profitable by betting on the underdogs)


I'll post my explanations for each pick I've made shortly...


Good luck everyone!

:cheers:
 
NEW JERSEY +125

Over the L2 seasons, the Devils (I hate to use this word, tbh) are 6-4 against the Flyers while Philadelphia holds a 3-2 edge @ PHI.

One of the crucial things here which helped me in developing my decision towards NJ is the fact that earlier this season, Philadelphia swept a home-and-home series vs NJ.

Interesting but this morning the line opened at +128 for NJ ML while at the time I was capping the game, the line jumped up to +137 at Pinnacle. By the way I finished with capping and finalized my decision, it went down to +125. From what I've seen - many people seem to be on Philadelphia tonight so I'd say - some strange line movement in this one.

Flyers will be without their captain Briere who's been sidelined again so in his place will play (afaik) Darroll Powe, 23, who's been recalled from AHL Panthers (9 goals and 14 assists in 76 games).

Clemmenen will start for New Jersey in goal, and so far, he's been 2-2-0 on road with 2.47 GAA and .921 save%, while allowing a total of 8 goals over his L3 starts.

Biron will start in goal for Philadelphia and he's been only 5-4-2 at home this season, along with 3.22 GAA and only .889 save%, while allowing a total of 10 goals over his L3 starts.

I've had this game capped at -120 towards New Jersey so with the way the lines have been set-up, this makes a pure VALUE BET for me.
 
NY RANGERS +131

Rangers are 6-2 vs Montreal over the L2 seasons while going 2-2 @ MON.

They've been playing well lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and lately, going 4-1 over their last 5. I like the fact that they've rallied from a 2-goal deficit in their most recent game (last night vs Pittsburgh). It shows that this team have a lot of character and it's definitely a positive thing.

As for Canadiens, they're 5-5 over their last 10 games although they've been riding a 2-game winning streak at the moment. Interesting but they've scored 5 goals in their most recent game - after previously averaging only 2.0 goals per game over their previous 10 games (!)

Rangers are so far 4-0 SU on no rest and coming off a win while Montreal is 5-4 SU on 1 day rest, also coming off a win.

I was going to wait for confirmation that Henrik Lundqvist will be in a goal for Rangers but the fact that the line on NYR was constantly going down forced me to make my decision earlier (the line went from +136 on NY this morning down to +133 in the afternoon and then again down to +131 an hour ago). However, there's something like 75-89% chance he's going to start.

Anyway, Lundqvist is so far 6-1-1 on the road, with 2.21 GAA and .928 save% while being lifetime 7-2-1, 2.46 GAA vs Montreal.

Also, if somehow this game goes to OT/SO, I feel pretty confident in NYR with Henrik in a goal considering they're 6-2 behind him in shootouts (opposed to Montreal going 7-5 in the same situations).

As for Canadiens starting goalie, Carey Price, he's been stellar at home, going 6-1-2 with 2.02 GAA and .925 save% but made only 1 start vs NYR, allowing 3 goals on (only) 11 shots before being pulled out from a game.

My personal capped line for this matchup is -115 towards NYR but although this will be 3rd game in 5 days for NYR, I feel confident about them winning tonight before taking a 2-game break..
 
BOSTON -0.5 +112

Over the past 2 seasons, Boston is 3-2 vs Tampa and 2-1 @ Tampa. Interesting but in all 3 wins, they've covered the -1.5 spread. This fact alone is good to know when shooting for the regular time play on a team.

Boston is 8-2 over their L10 games, currently riding a 2-game winning streak. They haven't allowed more than 3 goals in 5 straight games (avg. 2.0 goals per game scored against)

Tampa is 1-9 over their L10 games, losing 5 straight. They, on the other hand, haven't scored more than 3 goals in 5 straight games (averaging 2.6 goals for) while at the same time, have allowed 4.4 goals scored against them over the same span.

Boston is 2-1 SU on 3 days rest off a win (4-1 ATS overall) while Tampa is only 1-4 SU on 1 day rest off a loss (and overall only 2-7 ATS)

Tim Thomas, who's been confirmed to be in a goal tonight for Boston, has been 6-2-2 so far on the road, with 1.94 GAA and .936 save% along with 2 shutouts, allowing a total of 7 goals over his last 3 starts.

Mike Smith, who's going to start for Florida, has managed a 3-2-4 home record, with 2.02 GAA and .941 save%, along with 1 shutout, allowing a total of 8 goals over his last 3 starts.

Although my predicted line is -135 for Boston in this matchup, I've decided to go with regular time play on them because I don't see Tampa pulling an upset (yet). However, I expect them to give a good (defensive) effort here which could help them for their next game (at home) vs Buffalo on Saturday and who knows what could happen on Monday @ Boston...
 
FLORIDA +105

One of the two weirdest lines on the board for tonight, imo.

First one is, obviously, the line on Phoenix which definitely smells like a trap and I won't be suprised to see Toronto win tonight.

But this line in Florida seems to attract a lot of people on Buffalo.

My capped line for this game was -133 towards Florida - in case Anderson was going to be in a goal.

After it's been confirmed that Anderson will indeed start in goal for them, I've finalized my decision.

Anyway, Buffalo is only 3-7 over their L10 games, losing 2 in a row.
Over this period, they've been averaging only 2.2 goals for (while allowing 3.8 goals against), scoring only 3 times more than 3 goals while at the same time being shutout 2 times.

Florida, on the other hand, is 5-5 over their last 10 games, riding a 2-game winning streak. Over this period of 10 games, they've been averaging 3.0 goals for (and 2.5 goals against) while at the same time shutting out their opponents twice (!)

If the official line was going towards Florida, I would surely play them on regular time because Buffalo have gone 11 straight games without registering an OT game while Florida won their last 3 times all in regular time.

Ryan Miller is likely to be in a goal for Buffalo tonight, and his road numbers are so far 3-3-1, 2.81 GAA and .900 save% along with 1 shutout which is slightly worse compared to his home numbers.

As for Florida, I've already mentioned that Craig Anderson will be in a goal for them, and it's important for me because he's been in a goal over their current winning streak while posting respectable numbers at home: 1-0-2, 2.29 GAA, .933 save% and also 1 shutout while allowing only 7 goals over his L4 starts.
 
NY ISLANDERS +1.5 & CAROLINA ML

And my last play which was actually made just after the SJ/CLB total.

Islanders are 5-2 vs Washington in 2007/08 while going 3-1 @ WAS.

They're also 6-4 over their last 10 games. Over their last 5 games, they've been averaging 3.4 goals for after averaging only 2.2 goals for over previous 5 - surely a drastic improvement.

Washington have lost 6 of their last 10 games and the most recent 2 games (in a row). They have a lot of injuries, just a quick reminder:

*Ovechkin is nursing something (probably just bruises) but although he's expected to play tonight, there's a solid chance he may be pulled out earlier tonight after logging 25+ minutes while his coach said "it is a maintenance day for Ovechkin"
*Fedorov probably won't play
*Green won't play
*Poti won't play
*Semin won't play
*Erskine won't play

They've had a lot of scoring problems lately, with backup guys not stepping up as they were expected. But their coach was fired up this afternoon and who knows what happens tonight.

A good thing is that Brent Johnson will start in a goal for them and I say this because he's been great at home so far, going 4-0-1, 1.77 GAA and .938 save%, although he's allowed a total of 13 goals over his last 3 games. It may be worth noting that his lone OT loss at home was against NJ earlier this season (a 3-4 SO loss).

Joey MacDonald will start in a goal for NYI, and he's been slightly better on road this season, going 5-4-1, with 2.82 GAA and .911 save%. He's allowed 10 goals over his last 3 starts.

Expecting a close game here, but hopefully Islanders keep it close enough and don't lose by more than 1 goal.

As for Hurricanes, a coach change more often than not proved be a good thing for the team. Now they have to prove to new coach and it seems like the boys end up being little more fired up for their next game. And it seems like they could've cought Pittsburgh at the right time, because they've also been struggling, going (only) 3-4 over their last 7 games.

Their main goalie, Cam Ward, is out with a groin injury so it's time for Michael Leighton to step up and hopefully, with the help from their defensive line, he'll be up for the task. Afaik, his backup will be Justin Peters who's been called up from AHL Albany River Rats (lol what a name).

Looking forward to see from Hurricanes what they're made of.

They have a tough schedule over the next 3 games.
I've especially marked 7th December for them, because that's the day they will welcome Washington at home.


Well, that's it - enjoy the evening guys!

:cheers:
 
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