Thursday NFL

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2007 posted on ctg:

ATS 28-19 , +26100
ML dogs 4-2, +14400
Teasers 2-7, -6800
ML favs 1-1, +300
Totals 5-8,-4450
HT wager 16-7, +18,500
Props 0-1, , -1600

2007 Overall NFL 56-45, +46,350

2008, 1-0, $+2000


__________________________________________________

Won my only play in the preseason 2008 so off to a good start.

Last year hit one of my largest ML dog plays of the year taking the skins on Sunday night vs the Giants. That one was not close. This one will be IMO.

Few notes that got my attention:
  • skins lost 5 second half leads last year so in 14 of 16 regular season games they either won or led in the second half.
  • Last year the skins OL was crippled by injuries to the right side and predictably they had trouble all year running to that side.. Left side was very good.. All return this year making this a very good veteran O-line.
  • Portis has to be licking his chops as he now gets a system more conducive to his running style as Zorn prefers more of a "one-cut and go" rushing attack which Portis thrived on in Denver.
  • Look at the system Zorn comes from.. True West coast offense and historically those offenses esp in Seattle, leaned heavily on the run game to start the season.
  • Giants are a team I backed heavily and cashed heavily in the Super Bowl. They were the hunter and and thrived in that role. Preferred to be on the road and the underdog. I have seen threads discussing how Coughlin said his team is focussed on reversing the trend of losses at home.. My question-- if it were that easy why didn't you reverse it last year?
  • Giants are the #1 target of everyone and I do not think they fit that role very well. Eli improved but at times was still wildly inconsistent. I do not think it is a coincidence that he struggles at home; I think it is a trend that should be followed. Pressure.
Bunch more on this that I'd be happy to discuss, but bottom line is these were two very evenly matched teams last year and Skins got better (health of o-line is key ingredient) and the Giants did not IMO.

Don't have the balls to play the ML but would endorse it, rolling with:

Redskins +4.5, 4 units LOSS

Misc.

not playing the CFB game tonight but a heavy lean on Vandy +10 if you can get it. My CFB year got off to a 3-9 start (I think)so being cautious over there right now.. Side item--recent role of 34-14 (small favs and dogs) in MLB posted and will play a spot or two perhaps this weekend over there.

GL..

Major leans this Sunday on Jets and Vikings. Top unit play likely

Playing 1-6 units in regular season this year unless something very special comes along.

You can see by my HT record above that I was very profitable with those in 2007. I will be observing all games for possible plays. Problem is those happen quickly but I'll do my best to get them posted in a timely manner for those interested.. GL all

:36_7_1:
 
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Staying away from a side on this one, possible total play though...any thougths from that perspective? Either way, BOL to ya bro! Looking hard at South Carolina tonight as well, haven't been in the CFB forum yet to see if you had anything posted over there on that game.
 
Tee respect the hell out of your opinion and this wasn't the side i wanted to see you on. Couple questions for you.

  • Does the SB champ ATS trend bother you at all?
  • How about the Redskins poor offensive productivity in the preseason
  • Landry and Springs health?
  • The Giants are returning home after their amazing run last season that ended in a SB win. Don't you think this crowd will be just pumped as hell....
  • West Coast offense is a tricky offense, that doesn't have alot of big plays worked into the system.....do you worry the Skins using this new offense in there first game?
The Giants have been quoted many times that they want to get out to a fast start and prove they were not 1 hit wonders.
 
Mags said:
haven't been in the CFB forum yet to see if you had anything posted over there on that game.
Click to expand...

Noted above.. No play in CFB but lean Vandy

Regarding Total-- Lots of running expected by me which should help the under but playmakers on both sides.. Really no opinion on the total.. If I were teasing I would tease the skins and the total up. GL bro
 
Marlo-- these are just my opinion

  • Does the SB champ ATS trend bother you at all?
  • Nah, would if the Patriots would have won the super bowl
  • How about the Redskins poor offensive productivity in the preseason
  • Don't use the preseason to cap the regualr season unless it is injury related
  • Landry and Springs health?
  • Yes, concerning
  • The Giants are returning home after their amazing run last season that ended in a SB win. Don't you think this crowd will be just pumped as hell....
  • Yes they will be pumped as they were for all the home games LY. Check the crowd for the Sunday night game at home vs skins LY. Huge primetime game and for whatever reason the Giants struggle in those moments at home. There is a reason for that and I think it starts with Eli Manning.. He feels more comfortable away from home where the pressure is not great. Where the expectations are low. You think he will be feeling pressure tonight? Bet he is shitting his pants right now.. He may have matured and it may reverse but until I see it consistently , at home, I think it is a huge capping trend to follow. Again just my humble opinion
  • West Coast offense is a tricky offense, that doesn't have alot of big plays worked into the system.....do you worry the Skins using this new offense in there first game?
  • Sure it is a concern and it will struggle at times. Spread the field and hand the ball to Portis behind a veteran O-line and into a fairly inexperienced Giants front . That is what I expect. But we'll see.
The Giants have been quoted many times that they want to get out to a fast start and prove they were not 1 hit wonders.

Redskins want to prove that they are 1 hit wonders. Giants have to proof it 16 times this year. Redskins just have to prove it tonight.

GL Marlo.. I might very well be all wrong on this and am often.. Just hope I am right 60% of the time;)<!-- / message -->
 
tee*dub said:
  • The Giants are returning home after their amazing run last season that ended in a SB win. Don't you think this crowd will be just pumped as hell....
  • Yes they will be pumped as they were for all the home games LY. Check the crowd for the Sunday night game at home vs skins LY. Huge primetime game and for whatever reason the Giants struggle in those moments at home. There is a reason for that and I think it starts with Eli Manning.. He feels more comfortable away from home where the pressure is not great. Where the expectations are low. You think he will be feeling pressure tonight? Bet he is shitting his pants right now.. He may have matured and it may reverse but until I see it consistently , at home, I think it is a huge capping trend to follow. Again just my humble opinion
<!-- / message -->
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that's a good point and good observation tee... I wonder if he may have felt all that pressure because of the NY crowd expectations of him... if it is, then him getting the ring may get alot of that pressure off him and make him feel more at home now.. if it isn't and his pressure at home is stemming from somewhere else, then I'm thinking it may show tonight...
but on his defense, he has had good games that they just lost anyway at home like against Dallas and New England... and those games were BIG TIME games on National TV... and he more than did his part... he also played well in the 3 games they won last year at home.

I guess we'll see how things go... gl health tonight tee





tee*dub said:
The Giants have been quoted many times that they want to get out to a fast start and prove they were not 1 hit wonders.

Redskins want to prove that they are 1 hit wonders. Giants have to proof it 16 times this year. Redskins just have to prove it tonight.

<!-- / message -->
Click to expand...

I'm not so sure about the 1 hit wonders thing.. since Eli has been starting, they went 11-5 and won the Division in 05', and won the Super Bowl last year.. he's made the playoffs every season.. that's not so much a 1 hit wonder.
 
One of my favorite pictures of all-time.. Think Eli did any of this in the off-season? :drinking::drinking::drinking::D:smiley_acbe:


<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
eli_drunk.jpg
 
BlitzBandit said:
I'm not so sure about the 1 hit wonders thing.. since Eli has been starting, they went 11-5 and won the Division in 05', and won the Super Bowl last year.. he's made the playoffs every season.. that's not so much a 1 hit wonder.
Click to expand...

Agree --that was a question from Marlo.. As stated, I rode the Giants through the playoffs last year and won multiple units on them in the big One..Love the Giants as an underdog. Just think this is a real bad spot for them and getting a FG+ is pretty good margin of error IMO.. GL Blitz on the year.. Always check your threads
 
Just think this is a real bad spot for them

Guess I just see things differently; I have no idea how a team can go on the road and win the SB, then return home in week 1 to begin the season and have it be a "bad spot". But then, I am not off to a good start this year (in cfb).
 
horses said:
Guess I just see things differently; I have no idea how a team can go on the road and win the SB, then return home in week 1 to begin the season and have it be a "bad spot". .
Click to expand...

Pressure and expectations.. What did they have to lose in all their playoff games and the SB? Really nothing, they were loose and esp in the super Bowl, no one gave them a chance (except me and a few others).. Tonight they have the banner raising ceremony, and the pressure not to disappoint the home fans as they did so often last year (at home). Redskins on the otherhand take on the role the Giants had late last year.. The party crasher... So love that spot in sports bro, especially pro sports were the talent levels are pretty much the same, give or take an eyelash difference, on every roster.. JMHO
 
spanishshark said:
Sup dog? :cheers:
Click to expand...

All is good bro.. Looks like we are against each other on a couple this weekend.. Not a good sign..

Diving for 3 or 4 days in the Keys in a couple weeks.. Hurricanes are screwing with my bottom time this fall.:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
All is good bro.. Looks like we are against each other on a couple this weekend.. Not a good sign..

Diving for 3 or 4 days in the Keys in a couple weeks.. Hurricanes are screwing with my bottom time this fall.:cheers:
Click to expand...

Shit, just a couple? We're good then :cheers:


Yeah, I went down here in the Gulf 3 weeks ago and visibility was so bad I just went back up and went home. Haven't been back since. Too much weather coming our way.
 
An interesting game here in so many ways .

I dont think NYG have been saddled with high expectations and thats why they seem to have more off a chip on there shoulder to prove they were not a fluke . What does concern me is the distraction of being home , on primetime , in the first game after there SB victory . All the hoopla that goes with this night is a concern because I worry about leadership on this team. Is Eli a leader , dont think Plax is ...vocals guys like Strahan , Tiki and SHockey now all gone ...

Redskins I think are somewhat misjudged on there last 2 preseason games which were terrible but they also played 5 . So game 4 and 5 is of little use for them and you wonder if thats how they approached the last two( food for thought ) . I do think the West Coast offense could be an issue as Campell has reportedly struggled with holding onto the ball to long still rather then getting rid of it quickly as needed in the WC offense . I agree with Tee that Portis could be a huge beneficiary of getting away from the VANILLA offensive game planning of Gibbs and Saunders . They basically told teams they were gonna try to and run down there throats and stop them if you can , to which even Portis said they seemed to stop us more often then not .

Biggest issue with NYG is do they duplicate the pressure on the QB and how does the secondary play after some personnel losses. Obviously we see how those 2 can tie into eachother..

Isues with the Redskins are how they adapt to a new offense and OC with Campbell returning from an injury shortened 07 season. There secondary as well with Landry and Springs health .

In 2007 NYG had there trademark win @ WASH to turn it around but the loss at home was misleading . Wasnt that the game with ridiculous wind gusts ??? Isnt that way neither QB xompleted many passes . Seem to rememeber Wash hitting mostly big passes , remember 8 competions of 25 160 something yards ...bith QBs that game 26-77 ......

Searched for game quotes and I was correct about that game ...


Portis scored on a 5-yard run, Ladell Betts got in from 14 yards out on a draw play and Shaun Suisham kicked three field goals on a blustery evening. The swirling wind knocked down passes, blew rolling punts an extra 20 yards and made life miserable for the offenses.

Manning had a horrible night, completing 18-of-52 for 184 yards in a game in which his receivers dropped at least eight passes.

"It wasn't a day where you wanted to throw the ball a whole lot, but we've got to be able to throw better than we did today," said Manning, whose 34 incompletions were the most since Joe Namath had 36 in a game against Denver in 1967. "We've got to be able to execute better."

Have to love that quote and see 52 pass attempts !!!!

The biggest drop was by veteran Amani Toomer late in the third quarter with New York trailing 22-10.

Manning had hit rookie Kevin Boss with a 19-yard touchdown pass on the previous series and he found Toomer wide open around midfield with a wind-whipped wobbly pass. With no one around him, the Giants' all-time leading receiver dropped the certain touchdown.

The drive eventually ended with Lawrence Tynes missing a 38-yard field goal and New York never threatened again.

So not sure what to make of this game . Would like Hixon to be available with his blazing speed.

Think both teams are close to even but have to like the NYG offense better .

Could see either team winning this game and really cant pick a side at the moment . For some reason I like the over here . Wash defense is solid but questionsin the secondary where as NYG defense has questions to answer as well in the secondary and also generating the same pass rush ....so if both weakness are in the pass defense woud expect that both teams get to 20+ points ...and if NYG wins and were to cover then even if Wash gets 17 then 24-17 does the trick....

Still working on this one ......BOL all:cheers:
 
Also after the Toomer drop down 22-10 which was a easy TD (resulted in missed FG ---negative momentum), the Giants had 1st and 10 on the Skins 25 and didnt score and then 1st and 10 on the Skins 37 and didnt score ....chances were there to put up points

Which is why I am leaning over 41 here
 
personally think the skins suck however seen you and Bar and scdoggy so jumped on board earlier.. good luck man.. i can see this ending 24-20 myself
 
Taking Washington MOneyline-- don't need the points in this one--

Public is thinking about the super bowl win and the Giants that beat the Patriots- Agree with TEE Giants are a ROAD team and can be beaten at home-- Vikings beat them really good last year, they are the hunted now, lets see how they play in that role--

Basically the Skins are the play for these reasons--

-First game of year, people are basing their pick on last year and pre season, when in fact early on anything can happen, and the perception that the Giants are better is not true--

-NO one knows how good the Giants are and how good the SKINS are. I think this game can go either way, but think that the Skins have many things in their favour--

Line going up for no reason, which is good, public is usually wrong, and in the NFL if the Giants dont cover they will lose this game--

Burress will start out slow and the Giants have lost tons of good players--
The superbowl stat is irrelevant IMO--

SKINS are more hungry for this game tonight, they will win this game 24-17
 
Quite simply for this play-- Manning is a ROAD QB and a PRESSURE FREE QB--

These are the spots he does well- ie playoff run and SPBOWL and road games, in most home games he is horrible, he is not a home QB--

The superbowl champs at -3.5 now to -4.5 oh my god look at that how easy that is, the line is almost at the dreaded -5 line which is usually an outright loss for the favorite--


Lets cash this baby- sKINS to the bank
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Quite simply for this play-- Manning is a ROAD QB and a PRESSURE FREE QB--

These are the spots he does well- ie playoff run and SPBOWL and road games, in most home games he is horrible, he is not a home QB--

The superbowl champs at -3.5 now to -4.5 oh my god look at that how easy that is, the line is almost at the dreaded -5 line which is usually an outright loss for the favorite--


Lets cash this baby- sKINS to the bank
Click to expand...

ML, I like it:cheers:
 
The pressure is off Eli though now with a SB ring under his belt ...interested in seeing there defense now though...:shake:

Also dont see NYG as public bet which is obviously suprising

Good Luck guys ...no side just over 40....:cheers:
 
sort of like the way the 1 H ended.. Obviously the Skins got problems on offense but see adj coming.. Leaning the over 2H.
 
Skins got some work to do.. So do the G-men.. Decent shot at back door cover at end but didn't happen... Move on:smiley_acbe:
 
the first bit of work may be situational offense, and offensive gameplan in general...with the coaching staff. second bit of work might be getting colt brennan reps with the first team
 
So pissed I knew the 2nd H was a strong UNDER play when I saw them throw out 19.5 . Naturally cause I had over 40 I didnt want to play it but go figure a shutout !! Played a tiny amount on the 2nd H under and was eyeing them and Wash but just couldnt pull the trigger...

The whole game boilded down to Giants being basically what we expected and Skins suprising most of us , myself included that they really were the team that looked terrible last 2 preseason games...
 
SportsNut said:
So pissed I knew the 2nd H was a strong UNDER play when I saw them throw out 19.5 . Naturally cause I had over 40 I didnt want to play it but go figure a shutout !! Played a tiny amount on the 2nd H under and was eyeing them and Wash but just couldnt pull the trigger...

The whole game boilded down to Giants being basically what we expected and Skins suprising most of us , myself included that they really were the team that looked terrible last 2 preseason games...
Click to expand...

Yep.. learned alot from this game.. Use it later. Move on
 
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