Solid nite last nite about 2 mistakes from a great one. Getting involved in the late game PURE MISTAKE and UNDERVALUING a great Spurs squad losing to a bottomfeeder looking for revenge. Other then that I had just about everything pretty accurate.....
Thursday ~
Suns @ Nets
Looking at this game is extremely tough. We have two teams heading in opposite directions. We have the Suns an OT session away @ Utah from winning 10 straight.We have a NJ team who has dropped 7 of 9 and didnt exactly impress in winning @ Boston thanks to a big 4thQ and winning vs Philly despite a near 4th Q collapse. In those 7 losses they were defeated Home and away to Portland , home by Charlotte , blew leads @ Seattle and @ LAL and finally were beaten so badly in the 1st Q in Phoenix and then vs Dallas that all the did was try and to cut the lead to less then 10 all nite....that was considered progress! NJ problem is the lack of production from its bench . Mikki Moore played well vs DET due to the energy he brought and Marcus Williams had 27 vs the Suns but otherwise it hasnt been a positive.
The question becomes what should this line be? I know the Suns road record isnt impressive but they had a tough schedule unlike NJ who managed to lose to some of the worst teams in the NBA. How can we give them a Home court edge when they cant even defeat a Portland or Charlotte team? I do think Suns are a shade below Dallas which had a somewhat soft 2.5 price tag. I also know the home team is 9-1 in the series SU. I know the Suns although they got some revenge in the meeting seem to have taken the blowout in NJ last season as a personal and this is there return matchup. I cant take mcuh away from the 1st meeting. We had a Suns laying 6 and that would translate into about a PKem away...but the Suns had a big lead they gave up and as I said two teams going opposite directions. So I would say this line should be about -1 /-1.5 Suns if the Nets werent falling apart. From a value standpoint NJ does present a little value in theory.
I dont think its hard to understand why the public will back Phoenix here they are off a 20 pt win where Nash had 20 dimes. NJ is off that flat embarrassing game vs Dallas. Which can someone explain how on two days rest they come out flat?? My feeling right now is NJ is to dependent on the trio. Vince has played exceptionally well most of the year but when he has a bad nite like vs Dallas they are dead in the water.
Forget a side ....I have to think Under 209 looks intriguing depite Suns 6-0 Over record on the road. I dont get why the total would be 4 or so points higher in NJ then it was in Phoenix after that game saw 192 pts. Only 1 of the past 10 meetings has seen a game break 200 points. NJ holds opponents to below 30% from three at home (though past 5 games above 40%) which obviously is a big Suns weapon and the Suns hit only 7 of 21 in the 1st meeting..they shot 43% away from three so thats a positive sign. Along with the fact Suns dont create alot of FT opportunities for theer team or there opponent. NJ depends heavily on getting to the line for its offense(30+ attempts per). The Suns have not broken a 100 past 3 meetings vs NJ. Last point is Portalnd is awfully defensively and they hosted Suns with a 209 total....
- Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.
<LI class=more>Nets are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog. <LI class=more>Nets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.<LI class=more>Nets are 10-27-1 ATS in their last 38 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Nets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. <LI class=more>Nets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. <LI class=more>Nets are 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record<LI class=more>Nets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.<LI class=more>Under is 22-6-1 in Nets last 29 games following a double-digit loss at home.<LI class=more>Under is 12-4 in Nets last 16 vs. Western Conference.<LI class=more>Under is 22-9 in Nets last 31 games as an underdog.<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. <LI class=morehot>Home team is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. <LI class=more>Favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Suns are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New Jersey.
<LI class=morecool>To be fair there alot of Over trends as well but the Suns are involved is that a suprise??
LEAN: UNDER 209.5 +100 , maybe 1st H Under...
Detriot @ Dallas
Really not gonna waste much time here you have alot of opinions on this game. Pistons playing well then come out flat versus two bottomfeeders. You have to think they just went through the motions when they were rdiding a win streak. Now they got knocked down to reality and get a few gravy points cause they lost to bad teams and Dallas after the Wash hiccup righted the ship in NJ. Thought we should see +5 here ....
Outside of Wash the Pistons road games havent cracked 190 points. As much as it would pain to do so it seems Dallas is either real high scoring or real low socring very little middle ground....so look for this to be played in the low 90's and sneak Under....might add something on it later..
Play: Pistons +7.5 -110 (Large) ML +272 (value) Under 191 +100 Lean
Miami @ Sac
Miami has now reeled off 5 straight ATS wins and gets a Sac team playing its 5th in 7 nites which has lost the previous four. Heat have won lat 5 in the series including 2 @ Arco. However both teams now have different flares. Since the opening road trip Sac has won 4 , lost 3 , won 3 , now lost 4. Generally I think the line is where it should be. Miami offense has improved but its still inconsistent when it travels.
Right now I think Artest is OUT. Not crazy about touching this game I do lean slightily to Sac and the under....
Thursday ~
Suns @ Nets
Looking at this game is extremely tough. We have two teams heading in opposite directions. We have the Suns an OT session away @ Utah from winning 10 straight.We have a NJ team who has dropped 7 of 9 and didnt exactly impress in winning @ Boston thanks to a big 4thQ and winning vs Philly despite a near 4th Q collapse. In those 7 losses they were defeated Home and away to Portland , home by Charlotte , blew leads @ Seattle and @ LAL and finally were beaten so badly in the 1st Q in Phoenix and then vs Dallas that all the did was try and to cut the lead to less then 10 all nite....that was considered progress! NJ problem is the lack of production from its bench . Mikki Moore played well vs DET due to the energy he brought and Marcus Williams had 27 vs the Suns but otherwise it hasnt been a positive.
The question becomes what should this line be? I know the Suns road record isnt impressive but they had a tough schedule unlike NJ who managed to lose to some of the worst teams in the NBA. How can we give them a Home court edge when they cant even defeat a Portland or Charlotte team? I do think Suns are a shade below Dallas which had a somewhat soft 2.5 price tag. I also know the home team is 9-1 in the series SU. I know the Suns although they got some revenge in the meeting seem to have taken the blowout in NJ last season as a personal and this is there return matchup. I cant take mcuh away from the 1st meeting. We had a Suns laying 6 and that would translate into about a PKem away...but the Suns had a big lead they gave up and as I said two teams going opposite directions. So I would say this line should be about -1 /-1.5 Suns if the Nets werent falling apart. From a value standpoint NJ does present a little value in theory.
I dont think its hard to understand why the public will back Phoenix here they are off a 20 pt win where Nash had 20 dimes. NJ is off that flat embarrassing game vs Dallas. Which can someone explain how on two days rest they come out flat?? My feeling right now is NJ is to dependent on the trio. Vince has played exceptionally well most of the year but when he has a bad nite like vs Dallas they are dead in the water.
Forget a side ....I have to think Under 209 looks intriguing depite Suns 6-0 Over record on the road. I dont get why the total would be 4 or so points higher in NJ then it was in Phoenix after that game saw 192 pts. Only 1 of the past 10 meetings has seen a game break 200 points. NJ holds opponents to below 30% from three at home (though past 5 games above 40%) which obviously is a big Suns weapon and the Suns hit only 7 of 21 in the 1st meeting..they shot 43% away from three so thats a positive sign. Along with the fact Suns dont create alot of FT opportunities for theer team or there opponent. NJ depends heavily on getting to the line for its offense(30+ attempts per). The Suns have not broken a 100 past 3 meetings vs NJ. Last point is Portalnd is awfully defensively and they hosted Suns with a 209 total....
- Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.
<LI class=more>Nets are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog. <LI class=more>Nets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.<LI class=more>Nets are 10-27-1 ATS in their last 38 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Nets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. <LI class=more>Nets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. <LI class=more>Nets are 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record<LI class=more>Nets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.<LI class=more>Under is 22-6-1 in Nets last 29 games following a double-digit loss at home.<LI class=more>Under is 12-4 in Nets last 16 vs. Western Conference.<LI class=more>Under is 22-9 in Nets last 31 games as an underdog.<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. <LI class=morehot>Home team is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. <LI class=more>Favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Suns are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New Jersey.
<LI class=morecool>To be fair there alot of Over trends as well but the Suns are involved is that a suprise??
LEAN: UNDER 209.5 +100 , maybe 1st H Under...
Detriot @ Dallas
Really not gonna waste much time here you have alot of opinions on this game. Pistons playing well then come out flat versus two bottomfeeders. You have to think they just went through the motions when they were rdiding a win streak. Now they got knocked down to reality and get a few gravy points cause they lost to bad teams and Dallas after the Wash hiccup righted the ship in NJ. Thought we should see +5 here ....
Outside of Wash the Pistons road games havent cracked 190 points. As much as it would pain to do so it seems Dallas is either real high scoring or real low socring very little middle ground....so look for this to be played in the low 90's and sneak Under....might add something on it later..
Play: Pistons +7.5 -110 (Large) ML +272 (value) Under 191 +100 Lean
Miami @ Sac
Miami has now reeled off 5 straight ATS wins and gets a Sac team playing its 5th in 7 nites which has lost the previous four. Heat have won lat 5 in the series including 2 @ Arco. However both teams now have different flares. Since the opening road trip Sac has won 4 , lost 3 , won 3 , now lost 4. Generally I think the line is where it should be. Miami offense has improved but its still inconsistent when it travels.
Right now I think Artest is OUT. Not crazy about touching this game I do lean slightily to Sac and the under....
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Very probable i will put some unit on it as well. GL !
