Thursday NBA Discussion

K

KALIND

Pretty much a regular
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 width=540 bgColor=#cccccc><TBODY><TR><TD class=dataheader width=540 colSpan=10>NBA
Thursday, April 9th</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datasubheaderleft2 width=35>Time</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=40>Gm #</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=120>Team</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=75>Score</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>Opener</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>Hilton</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>5Dimes</TD><TD class=datasubheader width=60>ABC Island</TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>04/09
5:05p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>501
502</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> PHILADELPHIA
CHICAGO</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>202
6½ </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>202
6 </TD></TR><TR class=scores-greybg><TD class=scores-greybg-left>04/09
7:05p</TD><TD class=scores-greybg>503
504</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team> HOUSTON
SACRAMENTO</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-greybg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-greybg-right>
</TD></TR><TR class=scores-whitebg><TD class=scores-whitebg-left>04/09
7:35p</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg>505
506</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team> DENVER
LA LAKERS</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team><TABLE padding-left="5"><TBODY><TR><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-team-bb>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>212½
8 </TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>
</TD><TD class=scores-whitebg-right>210½
8½</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Something tells me Denver + tomorrow night for some reason... seeing that they haven't shown up tonight against OKC makes me like it even more.
 
Like houston, depending on line, my guess 6.5, 3 teams with 50 wins. they need to keep winning. like that landry is back. maybe a ml play..
 
Interesting angle on Philly tomorrow. Currently they are in the 6th seed and a .5 game behind Miami in the 5th seed. The difference between the 5th and 6th seed is a date with Orlando/Boston or Atlanta. I don't know about you but I'd rather face ATL rather then Bos/Orl. Leaning to Philly to play hard tomorrow.
 
bleh don't like going against big moves, but sign me up for denver and chicago

will get into writeups later. Gonna hope chicago line drops more, as 6.5 was a bit too high.
 
Funny thing about this is that when Phil talks about their problems with the secondary players no one listens. At least a little on the ml for me. Denver is a TEAM. Lakers have become Lamar, Kobe and Pavol and their little buddies. Plus Denver is really playing with better rest and a much better situation with only 3 games left to play.. One loss for the Lakers and home court is over and they play b-b in Portland on Friday.
 
Just took 9 at 5 dimes. No idea where this is going but would have played with 8 easily so 9 is FINE.
 
Im waiting for my denver bet. 9 is fine, but 9.5 would be better, and theres nothing suggesting that this line falls. I'd keep my eyes on sbrlines.com and just react at movements.
 
on another note, I just dropped kevin martin i my fantasy team. He is ? for 2m, but its fuckin bone spurs in your foot. If he does play 2m, then he is officially Yag
 
Agree more is better but 9 is a full point over the start and if I go to sleep think it might easily move down on what i believe would be sharp money action. Denver has no reason to do anything strange here. They lock the division with 1 win against the Kings at home and they had 2 days rest before OKC and have three days to rest after the Lakers so real hard to construct a situation where they ever stop trying tomorrow.
 
Cherry Picker said:
BetCrimes - any compelling trends that pop out to you pertaining to tomorrows card? Thanks.
Click to expand...


TNT Thursday stats of note:

- the last 11 games with an East Conf team as the home team are 10-1 to Under in reg.

- the early/1st game is 12-2 to Under in reg. last 14 games (both Overs involving the Dog winning SU - SU Fav winners during this time are 6-0 to Under)

- there has not been 1 instance this season of consective TNT Thursdays producing Over results in both games - last Thursday both games went Over in reg.

- the SU winner is 38-3-1 ATS, all 3 failures involving either the Lakers or Cavs as a Fav.

- the Favourite in the late/2nd game is on a 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS run (only ATS failure involving a DD spread)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

The Lakers are 7-0 to Under their last 7 home games, 9-0 to Under their last 9 home games vs non-divisional opponents, 12-1 to Under their last 13 home games, and have paid out on the Under in 16 of their last 20 games.

Denver has had at least 1 Under result in their last 7 sets of B2B games, and in 13 of their last 15 sets of B2B games.

2 games in Denver between these 2 teams have produced 201 & 169 pt Under results this season.

So I guess expect a 230+ pt Over result.
 
why do I get the feeling that Denver will try to run LA out of the gym?


Tuck, does 5 dimes allow you to deposit straight from credit, debit card?
 
Really do not remember. Have been there a long time. 4 withdrawals and thats all. Trust the site.
 
Points in the NBA are like prayer in fox holes. They may not help but we all still like them. Still see teams under and over valued. When was the last time Fisher was a good point guard. LA had beaten Denver 9 in a row and then the streak broke and this is the game after that.
 
Tomorrow the Kings play at the Clippers. They are 3-0 agaainst the Clippers and have lost the game in front of the Clippers every time and all 3 went under. Since Adelman went to Houston the Kings have been losing to them in low scoring games. Think the Rockets would like a low scoring win before GS unloads on them.
 
with the pace i dont see how anyone can take under----

close game, free throws, i would say the over hits in 2nd half---

way too many shots and possessions, also a lot of inside scoring and not all jumpers, that means over and foul shots--

lots of fouls means clock stops, i cant see it going under
 
Game is being at a high energy pace, quick runs, and inside scoring, sometimes the insdie guys reject the players but overall both teams are good high efficient teams at scoring--

gasol can score all day inside---

Even if lakers get ahead, expect denever to foul late and really put some cheap points late--

103 total, not sure what the hell they are expecting this half--

ansswer is nothing, its probably just half the total i guess and its only a number
 
Lot of BS second chances and cherry picking for lakers.... If nuggets clean up, it could be a different game.
 
Denver was all jumpers (except Melo) in the 1H. Lakers took everything in the paint.

Odom will continue to abuse Melo in the post 2H, only concern is if Denver continues to knock down 3's.
 
sammy logic doesnt work on NBA these days in my eyes.... They could ahve easily made this total open at 105 or even 106....why 102.5? Bait...

I could be wrong and overthinking, but with the public tilt already on the over, i dont see why they would put out a number 3-2.5 pts lower then they had the capability to do.

Books arent always right, im just saying.
 
Refs are calling way too many fouls for sure---

with inside plays like that, these teams were close to averaging 5 points a minute---

106 shots combined by both teams in 24 minutes-------

that is roughly more than 4 shots per minute--------

and lakers shots were inside a lot of them, that is why they had 24 free throws---

with over 4 shots a minute, i cant take an under at 103------

considering when teams are fouled, the clock stops and the game will go over then,
 
we will see a jump to 3.5 before 2h tip, fyi if u like over....books always let bettors nibble and raise slowly 2-3min before
 
Trueblue said:
sammy logic doesnt work on NBA these days in my eyes.... They could ahve easily made this total open at 105 or even 106....why 102.5? Bait...

I could be wrong and overthinking, but with the public tilt already on the over, i dont see why they would put out a number 3-2.5 pts lower then they had the capability to do.

Books arent always right, im just saying.
Click to expand...


Bro there is no such thing as TRAPS and BAIT other than what you TRICK yourself----

Logic always works bro in any discipline or industry in the long run--

The THEY could have talk will kill you, it does not apply, THEY are not playing in the games, its decided on the court BRO--

Trust me bro when you understand that 99% of the reasons people lose all the time is because of thoughts negative regarding TRAPS, too easy, bad luck, BAIT and this and that, when in reality it means nothing and the game is decided on the court-

Of course the game has a chance to go UNDER, but that is due to the PLAY on the court, not because some LINESMAKERS are having CORONOS and laughing and saying ha ha ha lets trick the dumb bettors because we know there will be only 97 points this half, lets set a lower number here
 
also, lakers bench will get gladly outplayed imo... They just arent scoring like they used to with farmar and vujacic in a funk. dont expect odom to hit anymore 3's either.... they may need to slow it down or get ran out of the building...
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Bro there is no such thing as TRAPS and BAIT other than what you TRICK yourself----

Logic always works bro in any discipline or industry in the long run--

The THEY could have talk will kill you, it does not apply, THEY are not playing in the games, its decided on the court BRO--

Trust me bro when you understand that 99% of the reasons people lose all the time is because of thoughts negative regarding TRAPS, too easy, bad luck, BAIT and this and that, when in reality it means nothing and the game is decided on the court-

Of course the game has a chance to go UNDER, but that is due to the PLAY on the court, not because some LINESMAKERS are having CORONOS and laughing and saying ha ha ha lets trick the dumb bettors because we know there will be only 97 points this half, lets set a lower number here
Click to expand...

I do not believe in traps, but i do believe that books try to entice action to a certain side or total. I see that being the case here. Perfectly reasonable imo..
 
Trueblue said:
also, lakers bench will get gladly outplayed imo... They just arent scoring like they used to with farmar and vujacic in a funk. dont expect odom to hit anymore 3's either.... they may need to slow it down or get ran out of the building...
Click to expand...


Well when I see something happen, the opposite can certainly happen, but look at the identity of the teams and the play--

IE- Look at free throws--
Look at inside play
Look at # of shots per minute
Look at fact its a close game, means overtime or late free throws
Look at pace of game, and up and down pace rather than slower pace-
Look at what you feel the most likely outcome is in 2nd half--

That is how you can have an idea of the 2nd half and how it will play out--

Anythig can happen in any game, but when you do what I did, you have an expected outcome and make the play.
 
The late flurry of fouls and the 3, gave us an inflated 112. If you look at just that number people are going to think 103 2H is a gift, unless you actually watched the game.
 
I think you're a great capper sammy. you should talk to believe811 (forgot his exact name) Had a fuckin sexy track record on nba 2h plays for 2years running. Guy knew how to read lines and line movement. Hit like 60% for 2h plays based simply on %'s and how the books opened and moved lines. Cant say he was always right, but was definitely onto something.
 
I played the over 2nd H. 102.5 is a joke and I don't believe in traps. there's value and I do expect denver to keep it close 2nd H which could lead to late game FTs and maybe OT. remember- a "playoff" atmosphere bw these 2 teams isnt tougher defense but more running and attacking. Denver elads the league in FTA per game at over 30 per so I wouldnt worry about them, and it seems LA will keep attacking as well
 
Trueblue said:
I think you're a great capper sammy. you should talk to believe811 (forgot his exact name) Had a fuckin sexy track record on nba 2h plays for 2years running. Guy knew how to read lines and line movement. Hit like 60% for 2h plays based simply on %'s and how the books opened and moved lines. Cant say he was always right, but was definitely onto something.
Click to expand...


Thanks Buddy, I think you are great too--

I dont really look at lines and what they may be looking for because it seems to work for me. It can work for some that know how to do it--

I just work strictly on the game and the court-- it seems to work for me, because i used to phsyche myself out and out think the game also---

So I try to avoid media and everything, and put myself on the court and imagine i am in the game-

Although I can see your point, guys that can read the lines can at least avoid some losses and probably know where good games are at--

GOod post buddy :cheers:
 
ok im not watching the game, and have LA 3rd Q along with 2nd H over so I'm very happy with all the fould Denver is racking up, and just out of curiosity- are these legit fouls or shadiness for the home team?
 
I think they are shady fouls, looks like one of those fixed type of games---
Denver gets hammered underneath a few times and no foul calls at all--

I just get that feeling in this game- although lakers are more aggressive though and are really pouding the ball inside
 
Most of these Nuggs fouls are tired legs fouls. Cheapies with hand checks because they arent moving their feet.
 
just played denver 4th Q +2

Denver isn't folding
I doubt the whistles continue at this pace and denver will relax not in the bonus
andersen will not play conservatively and not scared
melo will attack
LA by 4/5
 
Holy shit 3 mins in game and BILLUPS QUIT, I just saw it with my own eyes---

He had the ball and said FUCK IT we are done and I dont care anymore---

he didnt even look like he wanted to play anymore---

What a bitch that guy is, show some pride you clown, he QUIT I saw it with my own eyes
 
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