Thursday MLB Discussion

metsrp86

metsrp86

Giants 17-14 Patriots
<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="650"><tbody><tr><td colspan="7" align="left" valign="top">Thursday, July 17, 2008 7:10 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top">951</td><td align="left" valign="top">New York Mets
JO Santana -L </td><td align="right" valign="top">-1 ½ +110</td><td align="right" valign="top">-146</td><td align="right" valign="top">O: 8 -120</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top">952</td><td align="left" valign="top">Cincinnati Reds
J Cueto -R </td><td align="right" valign="top">+1 ½ -130</td><td align="right" valign="top">+136</td><td align="right" valign="top"> U: 8 +100 </td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="7" align="left" valign="top">Thursday, July 17, 2008 8:15 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="left" valign="top">953</td><td align="left" valign="top">San Diego Padres
J Peavy -R </td><td align="right" valign="top">+1 ½ -225</td><td align="right" valign="top">+103</td><td align="right" valign="top">O: 7 ½ -110</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="left" valign="top">954</td><td align="left" valign="top">St Louis Cardinals
K Lohse -R </td><td align="right" valign="top">-1 ½ +185</td><td align="right" valign="top">-113</td><td align="right" valign="top"> U: 7 ½ -110 </td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="left" valign="top">Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:05 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top">955</td><td align="left" valign="top">Pittsburgh Pirates
P Maholm -L </td><td align="right" valign="top">+1 ½ -190</td><td align="right" valign="top">+120</td><td align="right" valign="top">O: 9 ½ -120</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top">956</td><td align="left" valign="top">Colorado Rockies
U Jimenez -R </td><td align="right" valign="top">-1 ½ +160</td><td align="right" valign="top">-130</td><td align="right" valign="top"> U: 9 ½ +100 </td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="7" align="left" valign="top">Thursday, July 17, 2008 7:05 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="left" valign="top">957</td><td align="left" valign="top">Detroit Tigers
K Rogers -L </td><td align="right" valign="top">-1 ½ +135</td><td align="right" valign="top">-106</td><td align="right" valign="top">O: 10 -120</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="left" valign="top">958</td><td align="left" valign="top">Baltimore Orioles
G Olson -L </td><td align="right" valign="top">+1 ½ -155</td><td align="right" valign="top">-104</td><td align="right" valign="top"> U: 10 +100 </td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td><td align="right" valign="top">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Like the Rockies based on Betcrimes thread with consecutive shutouts. I was hoping for Cook, but Ill take Ubaldo at home.

Waiting on the umps for the grand salami and totals.
 
Cueto has been going better as of late for the Reds. The Mets rocked him pretty good the first time he pitched against them, though.

Lohse has been great; Peavy was pretty good last time but that was against a bad Atlanta offense (on the road).

Jimenez is much better than his record would indicate and this price looks cheap to me.

Want to hear doggy's take on Det/Balty - I lean Tigers as a small dog here.
 
I'll be honest Rex, this O's line has me baffled.

Everything points to the Tigers here Rex, but this line strikes me as weird.

Why isn't Baltimore a dog of +120 or more??? Detroit is a logical play here, but it almost looks too easy doesn't it?

Tigers own Baltimore of late (8-3 Last 11)
Olsen is awful. Let me say that again.
Olsen is awful - let me expand - (7,6,1,4,4,6 - runs scored against him in his last 6 starts. The 1 was the Nationals). He's also made it past the fifth inning twice in his last ten starts. And he hasn't seen the sixth innning since June 5th.
Orioles pen stinks and Sherrill pitched two innings in the All Star game.
Tiggers hitting 22 pts better off LHP.
Rogers decent (good road numbers).


I certainly can't advocate a play on the O's here, but I'm staying away from a side at this point.

I like the Over A LOT but am waiting for an ump. If Olsen can't get past the fifth inning, and we get 4 frames of Balti's pen - This over will be the easiest play in history

Very muggy forecast tomorrow in Balt so ball should carry well.

I'm done for tonight but will be around for a stalking tomorrow and for chat in the AM
 
Tigers road record is horrid as well, so its tough to back them outside their place - so in addition to my heebie jeebies on this line - I'm scared to take a team at basically a pick that is 19-27 on the road this year.

Not trying to talk you out of it, but the over is screaming at me and looks like the best play here.
 
Does anybody know, I was trying to find out? Do teams who come back from All star break and play first, do they typically score less runs or come out swinging and the games are high scoring because they were rested

I was thinking since these 8 teams come back first they might not be as rested as the other teams and come out sluggish
 
Not a very appetizing card, but that's too be expected with only four games.

I like Reds +1.5 for a decent sized bet, and a small bet on the ML. Cincy will come to play at home, and even though the Mets are hot, playing at Cincy is not the same as being home against the Giants and Rockies.

SD/STL Under 7.5

Lean to the Tigers.

HILE- I love the avatar, hopefully Crompton can be the man.
 
I agree on the Reds Music City. I"m looking at them closely now.

Haven't changed my mind on the O's game. Still love that OVER 10. Price is dropping from -120 to -110 at my place. Folks are liking that Under for some reason. I'm waiting for UMPS.
 
Rex, here's a little more support for your Tigers lean:

Balt was 1-7 last season as a pick'em
Balt was 13-30 last year vs. groundball pitchers (Rogers is).
 
Would discourage taking 1.5 with the Reds. Not picking a side yet just that no information I have accessed shows any real value with the 1.5.
 
I like O's ML today to be honest.. Then on Saturday Robertson vs. Cabrera I will be pounding the under on that and probably Detroit Satruday
 
scdoggy said:
I agree on the Reds Music City. I"m looking at them closely now.

Haven't changed my mind on the O's game. Still love that OVER 10. Price is dropping from -120 to -110 at my place. Folks are liking that Under for some reason. I'm waiting for UMPS.
Click to expand...
I agree there Doggy, that Balt. over looks like a very good play.
 
Timh said:
I agree there Doggy, that Balt. over looks like a very good play.
Click to expand...

only thing i wont do as a balti fan is taking unders in baltimore games ive learned my lesson.. i would lean OVER here as well however O's vs Lefties is never my favorite choice
 
i like the O's tonight...coupled with Barry's HOMER tendencies at 12-5 YTD, makes me enticed
 
Mets/Cincy total thoughts


Johan started out the season getting decent run support and as a consequence had a heavy Over record (7-2) and, as is Murphy's Law's want, the moment the conditioning was there to not be afraid of taking a J.S. Over, his record turned solidly towards Under (7-1-2 last 10 starts), largely based on his previous high run support completely dropping off as the Mets slumped, so he himself had to pitch better to stay competitive (5 opps. totaled 4+ run totals during the Over run while none totaled less than 2 runs, to just 3 opps. totaling 4+ runs and 2 opps. less than 2 runs in the Under run since).

So the question I'm now naturally interested in, since those initially conditioned no-longer-afraid-to-back-Overs-with-JS backers have been reconditioned by this nearly 2 month Under stretch, is when are we going to see the worm turn back again?

The Mutts are scoring runs pretty consistently again, J.S. has just had recent starts dodge the days his offense has really been on (2 of his last 3 starts the Mets have been off 11+ run totals, no suprise he should be the one to suffer the letdown). One would think it's only a matter of time before tweedle dee (decent runs support) meets tweedle dum (J.S.) on the right days a number of times again in the near future.

Adding to that is the fact the Mets faced 2 absolute stiffs as opponents before the break, and so their subsequent defensive results have put a shine on their pitching staff to a degree which really doesn't belong (4 shutouts in 6 games? yeah thats representitive of this staff). Never the less those results will have had their conditioning aspect when it comes to people considering Mutts Unders.


Cincinnati is first up, and as I've been posting in these discussion threads, Cincy on the road vs lefties has been truly all or nothing in scoring 3 runs or less, or 6 runs or more, but literally never 4-5 runs (They lost 6-12 on the road to Santana earlier this season).
But when it comes to home games, they've shown a lot more consistency - in fact, in 13 games they have only once managed to total less than 3 runs vs a lefty (on that occasion they scored 2 runs, after scoring 7, 9, 9, & 9 run totals their previous 4 games, so their letdown had an understandable aspect to it).


So theres an 8.0 total for this game....

- which are the Mets more likely to take Cueto for, given their current all-or-nothing offensive bent, keeping in mind they scored 6 ERs off 4.2 IP when he started in NYK - 0-3 runs, or 7+ runs?

- Cincy managed 3 ERs off 6 IP by JS when they were on the road, now they're at a venue where their offensive consistency vs. lefties is far more prevalent. And not only that, they are in winning form (10-5 SU L15), in no short way due to their offense (13 totals in 15 games of at least 3 runs, averaging 5.13 runs/game vs an overall season average of 4.33 runs/game).

- the Mutts are coming off having executed 2 straight shutouts. Since 2002 teams off 2 shutouts and playing a road game have conceded an average of 4.75 runs/game, 4.95 runs/game when that team (off the shutouts) had a winning record. And only 21.8% of the time have they held their opponent to 2 runs or less.

- Cueto is said to have turned the corner in recent starts. Yeah? ... nah

WHIP 1.38, ERA 3.89, POR 2-4 - Last 6 starts
WHIP 1.18, ERA 2.21, POR 2-1 - The 3 starts vs .500 or less teams
WHIP 1.62, ERA 5.94, POR 0-3 - The 3 starts vs >.500 teams

WHIP 1.18, ERA 3.88, POR 3-4-1 - Season vs .500 or less NL teams
WHIP 1.71, ERA 6.65, POR 2-4-2 - Season vs >.500 NL teams

he does, however, get decent run support at home, as opposed to away, vs NL teams -

0-2 run totals home: 2 vs away: 5
3+ run totals home: 7 vs away: 2


The fact Diaz is the Ump means my bet size is impacted, but he alone isn't enough to prevent a bet at all.
 
Agree Tim...

OVER 10 for me for three units.... Lean Balt, but I can't play em with that pen....
 
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