Thursday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>901</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
D. Bush


</TD><TD>+1.5 -191</TD><TD>-103</TD><TD>OVER 9 -113</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>902</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
T. Gorzelanny


</TD><TD>-1.5 +178</TD><TD>-105</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +103</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>903</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
D. Haren


</TD><TD>-1.5 +137</TD><TD>-116</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -107</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>904</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
A. Miller


</TD><TD>+1.5 -147</TD><TD>+108</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -103</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>905</TD><TD>New York Mets
Jo. Santana


</TD><TD>-1.5 +144</TD><TD>-119</TD><TD>OVER 8 -101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>906</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
T. Hudson


</TD><TD>+1.5 -154</TD><TD>+111</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -109</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>907</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
K. Kendrick


</TD><TD>+1.5 -170</TD><TD>+122</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +106</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>908</TD><TD>Houston Astros
R. Oswalt


</TD><TD>-1.5 +160</TD><TD>-130</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -116</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>909</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
A. Harang


</TD><TD>+1.5 -231</TD><TD>-106</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 +102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>910</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
R. Wolf


</TD><TD>-1.5 +211</TD><TD>-102</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -112</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>911</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
M. Batista


</TD><TD>+1.5 -132</TD><TD>+160</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -116</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>10:05 AM</TD><TD>912</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
J. Bonderman


</TD><TD>-1.5 +122</TD><TD>-168</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 +106</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>913</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
V. Padilla


</TD><TD>+1.5 -206</TD><TD>+104</TD><TD>OVER 9 -116</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>10:10 AM</TD><TD>914</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
L. Hernandez


</TD><TD>-1.5 +186</TD><TD>-112</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +106</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
B. Bannister


</TD><TD>+1.5 -101</TD><TD>+206</TD><TD>OVER 9 +100</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>10:35 AM</TD><TD>916</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
D. Matsuzaka


</TD><TD>-1.5 -109</TD><TD>-224</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -110</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>917</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
B. Burres


</TD><TD>+1.5 -140</TD><TD>+147</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>918</TD><TD>New York Yankees
I. Kennedy


</TD><TD>-1.5 +130</TD><TD>-155</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>919</TD><TD>LAA Angels
J. Saunders


</TD><TD>+1.5 -182</TD><TD>+113</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +107</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>920</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
A.J. Burnett


</TD><TD>-1.5 +172</TD><TD>-121</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -117</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Thu 5/22</TD><TD>921</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
A. Laffey


</TD><TD>+1.5 -226</TD><TD>-105</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>922</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
M. Buehrle


</TD><TD>-1.5 +206</TD><TD>-103</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -107</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>1:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Seattle at Detroit
Home Plate Umpire: Reilly, Mike


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>M Batista
J Bonderman
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>1:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Texas at Minnesota
Home Plate Umpire: Johnson, Adrian


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>V Padilla
L Hernandez
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>1:35 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Kansas City at Boston
Home Plate Umpire: Wendelstedt, Hunter


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>B Bannister
D Matsuzaka
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Baltimore at NY Yankees
Home Plate Umpire: Guccione, Chris


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>B Burres
I Kennedy
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:07 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Angels at Toronto
Home Plate Umpire: Kellogg, Jeff


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Saunders
A Burnett
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:11 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cleveland at Chi. White Sox
Home Plate Umpire: Schrieber, Paul


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>A Laffey
M Buehrle
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:00 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Mets at Atlanta
Home Plate Umpire: Meals, Jerry


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Santana
T Hudson
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Home Plate Umpire: McClelland, Tim


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D Bush
T Gorzelanny
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Arizona at Florida
Home Plate Umpire: Iassogna, Dan


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D Haren
A Miller
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Philadelphia at Houston
Home Plate Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>K Kendrick
R Oswalt
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cincinnati at San Diego
Home Plate Umpire: N/A


</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>A Harang
R Wolf
Bullpen Availability


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
So hard to look at this stuff after getting my teeth kicked in. Not to mention having to watch spurs choke.
 
The home team is 20-5 SU in Bostons last 25 games (32-12 this season*)

*not incl. the Japan games, where there was no real home team

They're shitty on the road (7-13*), and it seems like they know they have to make hay at home to compensate.
 
ChiSox are dogged yet again to Cleveland and why? They have already gotten passed the strength of their lineup, won each game, and now Laffey is favored?

Oh, what the fuck? Boston-224 versus Bannister & Co. I think you have to take your chances here with a good pitcher, an improved team, and an opposing SP that could give up runs. I know home team is 20-5, I know it's at Fenway, but getting over two-to-one on your money is a helluva proposition.

Minnesota and the over. Padilla cannot keep up with his previous performances this season, so it is a matter of time before he reverts back to the most consistent over pitcher in the majors. Minny wants to avenge the loss yesterday. Minny in the dome is usually a good place to have your money.
 
Liking the Rangers to win for the split. Padilla pitching really well with good history against Twins and almost a run better ERA, .10 BAA, and .13 WHip on turf throughout his career. Also a noticeably better day pitcher. Rangers are 8-2 in his starts and he seems to have his shit together. I'll probably wait to see if Hamilton is in the lineup as he always seems to be a key to their lineup scoring runs. Livan has done pretty well against a handful of Rangers batters, but not much history against a few(Hamilton and Kinsler included).

May look at the under here too. These 2 teams combine to average less than 7 in day games and have a couple of their top pitchers going. Ump with 3-8 O/U out there too.

Still hate that Texas is so bad in day games, but Minny isn't much better so I don't think it's a huge shift in Minny's favor.
 
Good stuff fellas.

My aggravation level is at all time highs as I have just had the worst breaks imaginable this week. Everything that could go worng did go wrong type deal but worse it happened to the bets I stepped up on. Probably at 50% -52% and down 20 units. The biggest travesty just may have been the Rockies losing yesterday. They deserved to lose when they cant take advantage of MOB all day. However what irks me is I had the game called called to perfection and lost . Hate to say the only thing I may have had wrong was for some reason COL being an overwhemingly public bet and the idea of COL being easy . Sanchez pitched better then any could have expected and he still left down 2 runs while Morales basically did what I expected as felt he would allow 1 run and the best SF could do was score 3 runs of course they score 3 ! Just disgusted about that game. I guess I made the mistake of playing COL cause they were clearly to cheap yesterday ( should have been at least -170)and I guess everyone felt that way. They were opened cheap because they hitting with MOB is putrid lately. So they definetly wanted COL action . Hook , line and sinker on that one thinking there was value in that one ....no way was SF to fat of a dog just the opposite ...value is the worst phrase in wagering ..price does not dictate value as sittuations do...that was after Browns 3 run error the night b4 vs tB , the yanks dont go over 9 after being up 6-0 after 3 inning but that was such a illogical play. If Cabrera vs Moose is 8.5 to 9 how could Olsen vs Rasner be the same total?? Same shit happened in Game 2 @ LAD when Belisle faced Billingsley...its a thinking mans game...what looks easy almost NEVER is ! Then there was th 0-0 twins game after 5 which went over 9.5 at + money , SD leading 2-0 then Chris Young takes a liner off the face and the skies open ....

So yeah I am pissed and feeling the posting jinx...so might be my last post cause I have some work to do....

Seattle @ Det :
-Tigers only 3-14 in day games
-Tigers score 2,9 runs in day games and Seattle 3.8 (4.3 runs and 4.0 runs vs RHP)

Basically this Tigers exploded 1st 2 games but didnt score after the 3rd inn yesterday which I see as negative momentum. Batista has struggled but his best work has come away so far and really he is a question mark but at least SEA penhas improved of late . Bonderman who does struggle at home and in day games really has been solid for awhile outside of NYY which was a bloop fest. Looking for both SP with Reilly behind the dish to deliver 3 runs in 6 inn types and hope for 5-3 or 5-4 game here...

So playing Under 9.5 and 1st 5 under with a small play on SEATTLE.

Texas @ Minny :

No real feel other the Rangers after losing 1st 2 games woke up late which should lead to some carry over momentum. Padilla has been suprisingly solid and lean under but will play Texas and probably Texas 1st 5 .....Tex 5-1 on Thursdays and 5-0-1 Under as well also 14-5 Under after a Texas WIN...while Twins past few season as 15-7 Under after allowing 10 + runs....most of Texas day games were early on when they were slumping so 4-11 slewed IMo....

KC @ Boston :

Bannister has awesome day splits sub 1 ERA in 4 starts and really did well in them last year. DiceK allows alot more baserunners on 5 days rest andtends to labor. KC trying to avoid losing all 4 games.

So long winning streak and west coast trip after this game I think Boston could affors to lose here....so playing KC and 1st ML plus +1.5 RL....

Also playing the over 1st 5 innings and game over...KC 264 in day games it best and Boston above 300...Bannister has struggled on the road and despite the great day splits I think best case he can do is 3 runs in 7 innings and for KC to win pobably need 5 here ..

GL also playing Jays with the LAA pitching change as Santana struggled past 2 and NYM with Santana.....:cheers:
 
..price does not dictate value as sittuations do...

I am confused. Don't you examine the entire situation and assign a value ( or price ) to it ? It is the difference between what you perceive the price to be compared to what the posted price is that determines your bet, does it not ??

If it is just the situations and price does not dictate , then you must bet every single favorite except the favorite that you expect to lose ( false favorite ). I mean if value doesn't matter then all you have to do is pick winners.

You keep saying this but i just don't understand it.
 
SN - I was absolutely pissed about that Colorado breakdown. I felt the same way - analyzed it well, though through it, liked the price and then got burned by a closer. Had another 9th inning loss when Gerald Laird went yard for Texas in the 9th for 2 runs and a 1 run over clear. Here's to today being a better day!
 
Seattle @ Det :
-Tigers only 3-14 in day games
-Tigers score 2,9 runs in day games and Seattle 3.8 (4.3 runs and 4.0 runs vs RHP)

Basically this Tigers exploded 1st 2 games but didnt score after the 3rd inn yesterday which I see as negative momentum. Batista has struggled but his best work has come away so far and really he is a question mark but at least SEA penhas improved of late . Bonderman who does struggle at home and in day games really has been solid for awhile outside of NYY which was a bloop fest. Looking for both SP with Reilly behind the dish to deliver 3 runs in 6 inn types and hope for 5-3 or 5-4 game here...

So playing Under 9.5 and 1st 5 under

:shake:
 
Redmond in for Mauer, he's 1-13 lifetime vs Padilla...Harris and Young both have good histories against Padilla, yet aren't playing so hot. We'll see who wins out.
 
SN, if you remember i even brought up the fact that is is brutally frustrating to bet on colorado because they leave so many men on base. vegaskyle, i agree with SN. a pick has value if it has a good chance of winning, no matter the price. just because one team is favored doesnt mean that team should win, even on paper. for example, i bet on seattle and KC today. i didn't bet on these teams because i think the huge underdogs have "value" i bet on them because i think these teams will win. i guess the only time value comes into play is if i like one team, but it could either way, and the team i like is a huge favorite. then ill say fuck it, it is not worth it.
 
another example: let's say i liked the lakers last night. i made them a 5 point favorite. line opens at 7.5 , so you might say there is value in the spurs. however, if i don't think the spurs are going to win then i wouldn't bet it just because the line appears to have value.
 
i've heard people say there is value in games that are pretty much toss-ups, but one team is a huge underdog. maybe there is, but i would rather find a game in which i'm pretty sure i can pick the winner.
 
jimbo1227 said:
SN, if you remember i even brought up the fact that is is brutally frustrating to bet on colorado because they leave so many men on base. vegaskyle, i agree with SN. a pick has value if it has a good chance of winning, no matter the price. just because one team is favored doesnt mean that team should win, even on paper. for example, i bet on seattle and KC today. i didn't bet on these teams because i think the huge underdogs have "value" i bet on them because i think these teams will win. i guess the only time value comes into play is if i like one team, but it could either way, and the team i like is a huge favorite. then ill say fuck it, it is not worth it.
Click to expand...


Wow. I am shocked by you guys.

i agree that " just because one team is favored that it doesnt mean that team should win" , that is why i said if you believed that price doesnt matter the only underdogs you could bet were the ones who were up against false favorites.

So you would play the royals today at -300 ? of course not ... because price dictates what you play. ALWAYS.

How this fact can be debated on a sports betting forum in unfathomable to me.

Also , I think you need to go back and recap the royals game because if you think they win this game more than fifty percent of the time , there is a flaw in your capping. I bet them also because i think they win it enough times to make it profitable. But there is no way in hell they win in this spot more times than they lose.

If someone can explain to me reasonably how price doesnt dictate sports betting , please do.

this is just crazy talk.
 
would i play the royals at -300, no. but lines in sports betting are usually pretty fair. if you make a line in MLB -160 but the line opens -130, does it have value or is vegas just trying to sucker you in? in short, price definately dictates what someone might play, but i just take the lines im given and i try to pick winners.
 
i'm not saying lines don't matter, i'm saying i pick winners rather than try my luck on a 50/50 game becuz it has huge odds.
 
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
alright dude... have fun finding generous lines rather than figuring out who is going to win the fuckin game.

I try to figure out what percent of the time i think a particular team wins the matchup and compare it to the price.

We just disagree on the fundamental nature of sports betting. I won't force my beliefs down your throat , just offering them. I do not want to butt heads with you for sure, as one of us could take it personal or something and i dont want that.


good luck jimbo.
 
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
i'm not saying lines don't matter, i'm saying i pick winners rather than try my luck on a 50/50 game becuz it has huge odds.

fair enough.
 
so would you say you can find value in even lines alot of times as long as you can figure out who would win most of the time. i'm just trying to understand further what your definition of value is? i'm sure it would help my handicapping. i love to learn new tricks.
 
ya wanna know what it is vk, people throw around the word value like crazy without any backing. at least you know what your talking about.
 
lets take your 50/50 example. If i believe a team wins the game fifty eprcent of the time and the price is +115 then i will bet it.

50 wins at +115 = +57.5 units
50 losses at +115 = -50.00 units

i win 7.5 units over a 100 bet span. ... well assuming that i am right about the percent they win at , which is of course the rub.

conversely a team i expect to win 60 percent of the time at -150 is a no bet

60 wins at -150 = +60 units
40 losses at -150 = -60 units

so no value

the dog in the same game would be +130 ( depending on the book of course )

40 wins at +130 = +52 units
60 losses at +130 = -60 units

a losing prop.

That is how i relate my handicapping to the line. for the most part.
 
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
ya wanna know what it is vk, people throw around the word value like crazy without any backing. at least you know what your talking about.

i know what you mean about people throwing words around.

as far as me knowing what i am talking about ... that is debatable but thanks.
 
"just because one team is favored doesnt mean that team should win, even on paper. "

That's exactly what being favored means, but we all know that the team that should win does not always win.

for example, i bet on seattle and KC today. i didn't bet on these teams because i think the huge underdogs have "value" i bet on them because i think these teams will win.

So you are saying Boston, amidst a six-game win streak, should not be favored versus Kansas City and Bannister, who has less than impressive road stats? I whole heartedly disagree. Play today's game over 100 times assuming all situations are constant and Boston will win 67 times; that is what the odds are saying.
 
i guess the hardest part, to butt in on your argument, is deciding how often teams win the game or what % of the time you think they'll win. I can tell you that i don't do that in my capping, but maybe i should... i imagine it comes with experience though, cuz i'm still relatively new at this
 
Well, back to the discussion. I like Cincy a lot this eve. 4th in MLB in OPS vL, Wolf struggling, Harang not. Batter v P works really well in favor of Cincy. Harang great Petco stats through career. No Bard, no Barrett for SD, probably a bit bummed because they have so many injuries and Young got his nose broken.
 
vegaskyle said:
..price does not dictate value as sittuations do...

I am confused. Don't you examine the entire situation and assign a value ( or price ) to it ? It is the difference between what you perceive the price to be compared to what the posted price is that determines your bet, does it not ??

If it is just the situations and price does not dictate , then you must bet every single favorite except the favorite that you expect to lose ( false favorite ). I mean if value doesn't matter then all you have to do is pick winners.

You keep saying this but i just don't understand it.
Click to expand...


I typed a nice long response that got lost. Your correct VK we simply have a misunderstanding . What I mean the price itself doesnt create value its the likelyhood of winning vs that price. To many times people say the price of a game dictates a certain play and what I mean is really the situation is what dictates the play .

So what I mean is you have to a discrepancy in the actual price vs likelyhood of winning . What I see is to many who dont where that price should be and just because its above certain level they think oh thats value .

Basically step 1 is figure out what the price should be around but playing good or poorly will increase the likelyhood of your bet winning or losing even if the price appears correct. Example is yesterday the SF game . However you want to figure it basically I come up with -165 COL as the correct opener . Sanchez eeked out a win vs Jiminez at home but was slightily outpitched and since then the effectiveness of the pens had flipped . That game SF was home and +100 but that day I bet SF cause based on the situation I had that game about -115 so the price in that sense dictated a bet but only cause the situation ( young SP who is better at home vs young SP who is medicore away with basically even lineups) was there and I would back SF up to -115 maybe even -120 that day. So now same matchup have to readjust for home field which I figure to be say 40 cents sometimes more sometimes less but it that I do adjust for the slippage in road play from home in SF case. So that -115 flipped for 80 cents becomes COL -165 . So why does it open -145 ? My belief was because they expected a good , even flow on SF with Sanchez going and the Giants playing okay that series. Where as they really wound up with alot more COL flow because most people like I did jumped on the cheap number. So it was cheap but it wasnt value IMO cause the desired factor of opening it cheap was to draw COL money . Which the flip side is this. Bonderman and DET . The price gets higher and higher which seemingly makes Seattle attractive but it really doesnt increase the likelyhood they win. So again one has to look at the number and ask why is this number at -200 ? I made a play on KC not because the price was high but because Bannister had done so well in day games and DiceK struggled to pitch past the 5th on normal rest I thought it greatly increased the chances of KC winning today along with the attempt to avoid a 4 game sweep . So even though it was a road game I felt Bannisters chances were better to succeed then DiceKs. The price was basically where it should have been if you look at DiceK prices . I had it at -220 so the situation lining up with the price created the value not the fact it was +200...Like I said with Johan vs Belisle that day at 240 the Mets are cheap . I think that would make the Reds chances of winning 30% and based on there struggles vs LHP and it magnified on the road with a medicore pen at best I just dont see even if one thinks I am exaggeratting that NY doesnt win that game at least 80% or 8 out of 10 times....thus high price but still value.....

So value is created I guess by price discrepancy and understanding of the situation coupled with how a line set. When I see Price doesnt create value I think what I mean to say just cause it looks high and enticing doesnt mean it actually is high and value....

better understanding ? :shake:
 
So value can be found at times at -200 but clearly its rare . I guess what I am saying value can be found at any price level and I have this discussion even with spreads when people say -12 is to high to lay ? Why though ? because its Double Digits ? Its about accuracy and situation...hopefully I did better at explaining what I meant....
 
Down the stretch of their 1st WS win in 86 years, Boston was a heavy fav plenty of times, and they cashed like an ATM machine (went 34-11 final 45 reg season games). There was little excuse not to be on them despite the seemingly prohibitive odds - those odds were designed to get people on their opponent.

Value = right situation + "wrong" price for the situation. That price can be south of -200, it's simply down to the situation concerned revealing it to be significantly better than it should be, therefore demands being bet.
As noted above by others, the talent of a capper/of capping, is working out the subjective elements of the identification process.
 
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