Thursday MLB Discussion/Thoughts

reNew Orleans

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
<table bordercolor="#cccccc" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ff0000"><td colspan="3" class="sports-label">Thursday, Apr 3</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb"> American League </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Time</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Game</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Starters</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 12:05 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Chi. White Sox at Cleveland
Home Plate Umpire: Bruce Dreckman</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> John Danks
Jake Westbrook
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 1:05 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Kansas City at Detroit
Home Plate Umpire: Adrian Johnson</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Zack Greinke
Jeremy Bonderman
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 1:10 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> LA Angels at Minnesota
Home Plate Umpire: Chris Guccione
</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Ervin Santana
Kevin Slowey
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 7:05 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Toronto at NY Yankees
Home Plate Umpire: Bill Miller</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Dustin McGowan
Philip Hughes
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 7:05 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Home Plate Umpire: Alfonso Marquez</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Andy Sonnanstine
Steve Trachsel
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb"> National League </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Time</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Game</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Starters</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 12:35 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Arizona at Cincinnati
Home Plate Umpire: James Hoye</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Doug Davis
Johnny Cueto
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 1:05 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Washington at Philadelphia
Home Plate Umpire: Brian O'Nora</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Jason Bergmann
Jamie Moyer
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 1:15 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Colorado at St. Louis
Home Plate Umpire: Hunter Wendelstedt</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Ubaldo Jimenez
Brad Thompson
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 2:20 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Milwaukee at Chi. Cubs
Home Plate Umpire: Jim Reynolds</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> David Bush
Ryan Dempster
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 3:35 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Houston at San Diego
Home Plate Umpire: Marty Foster
</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Shawn Chacon
Randy Wolf
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans"> 7:10 PM ET </td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Home Plate Umpire: Ed Hickox</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Zach Duke
Mike Hampton
Bullpen Availability</td></tr></tbody></table>

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL - Apr 03

NATIONAL LEAGUE
9:35 AM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">Runline</td><td class="gTot">Total</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">951</td><td class="gName">ARI D-BACKS, Pitcher: D DAVIS -L</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717844_5_4_0_110_MLB" type="checkbox">+110</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717844_5_0_1.5_-175_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-175 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717844_5_2_-9.5_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9½-110 </td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">952</td><td class="gName">CIN REDS, Pitcher: J CUETO -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717844_5_5_0_-130_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-130</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717844_5_1_-1.5_155_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+155 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717844_5_3_9.5_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9½-110 </td></tr></tbody></table>

10:05 AM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">Runline</td><td class="gTot">Total</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">953</td><td class="gName">WAS NATIONALS, Pitcher: J BERGMANN -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717845_5_4_0_155_MLB" type="checkbox">+155</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717845_5_0_1.5_-135_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-135 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717845_5_2_-10.5_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o10½-105 </td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">954</td><td class="gName">PHI PHILLIES, Pitcher: J MOYER -L</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717845_5_5_0_-175_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-175</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717845_5_1_-1.5_115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+115 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717845_5_3_10.5_-115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u10½-115 </td></tr></tbody></table>

10:15 AM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">Runline</td><td class="gTot">Total</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">955</td><td class="gName">COL ROCKIES, Pitcher: U JIMENEZ -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717846_5_4_0_-120_MLB" type="checkbox">-120</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717846_5_0_-1.5_135_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+135 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717846_5_2_-9_-120_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9-120 </td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">956</td><td class="gName">STL CARDINALS, Pitcher: B THOMPSON -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717846_5_5_0_100_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">EV</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717846_5_1_1.5_-155_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-155 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717846_5_3_9_100_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9EV </td></tr></tbody></table>

11:20 AM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">
</td><td class="gTot">
</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">957</td><td class="gName">MIL BREWERS, Pitcher: D BUSH -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717847_5_4_0_105_MLB" type="checkbox">+105</td><td class="gSpr lineChk">
</td><td class="gTot lineChk">
</td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">958</td><td class="gName">CHI CUBS, Pitcher: R DEMPSTER -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717847_5_5_0_-125_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-125</td><td class="gSpr lineChk">
</td><td class="gTot lineChk">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

12:35 PM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">Runline</td><td class="gTot">Total</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">959</td><td class="gName">HOU ASTROS, Pitcher: S CHACON -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717848_5_4_0_130_MLB" type="checkbox">+130</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717848_5_0_1.5_-165_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-165 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717848_5_2_-8_-115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o8-115 </td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">960</td><td class="gName">SDG PADRES, Pitcher: R WOLF -L</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717848_5_5_0_-150_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-150</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717848_5_1_-1.5_145_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+145 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717848_5_3_8_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u8-105 </td></tr></tbody></table>

4:10 PM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">Runline</td><td class="gTot">Total</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">961</td><td class="gName">PIT PIRATES, Pitcher: Z DUKE -L</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717849_5_4_0_135_MLB" type="checkbox">+135</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717849_5_0_1.5_-155_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-155 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717849_5_2_-9.5_100_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9½EV </td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">962</td><td class="gName">ATL BRAVES, Pitcher: M HAMPTON -L</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717849_5_5_0_-155_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-155</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717849_5_1_-1.5_135_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+135 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717849_5_3_9.5_-120_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9½-120 </td></tr></tbody></table>
AMERICAN LEAGUE



9:05 AM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">
</td><td class="gTot">Total</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">963</td><td class="gName">CHI WHITE SOX, Pitcher: J DANKS -L</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717850_5_4_0_165_MLB" type="checkbox">+165</td><td class="gSpr lineChk">
</td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717850_5_2_-10_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o10-105 </td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">964</td><td class="gName">CLE INDIANS, Pitcher: WESTBROOK -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717850_5_5_0_-185_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-185</td><td class="gSpr lineChk">
</td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717850_5_3_10_-115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u10-115 </td></tr></tbody></table>

10:05 AM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">Runline</td><td class="gTot">Total</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">965</td><td class="gName">KC ROYALS, Pitcher: Z GREINKE -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717851_5_4_0_160_MLB" type="checkbox">+160</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717851_5_0_1.5_-135_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-135 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717851_5_2_-8.5_-120_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o8½-120 </td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">966</td><td class="gName">DET TIGERS, Pitcher: J BONDERMAN -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717851_5_5_0_-180_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-180</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717851_5_1_-1.5_115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+115 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717851_5_3_8.5_100_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u8½EV </td></tr></tbody></table>

10:10 AM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">Runline</td><td class="gTot">Total</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">967</td><td class="gName">LA ANGELS, Pitcher: E SANTANA -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717852_5_4_0_-125_MLB" type="checkbox">-125</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717852_5_0_-1.5_130_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+130 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717852_5_2_-9.5_-120_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9½-120 </td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">968</td><td class="gName">MIN TWINS, Pitcher: K SLOWEY -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717852_5_5_0_105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+105</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717852_5_1_1.5_-150_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-150 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717852_5_3_9.5_100_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9½EV </td></tr></tbody></table>

4:05 PM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">Runline</td><td class="gTot">Total</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">969</td><td class="gName">TOR B-JAYS, Pitcher: D MCGOWAN -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717853_5_4_0_145_MLB" type="checkbox">+145</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717853_5_0_1.5_-145_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-145 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717853_5_2_-9.5_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9½-105 </td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">970</td><td class="gName">NY YANKEES, Pitcher: P HUGHES -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717853_5_5_0_-165_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-165</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717853_5_1_-1.5_125_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+125 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717853_5_3_9.5_-115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9½-115 </td></tr></tbody></table>

4:05 PM4 /03 /08
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead><tr><td class="gNum">#</td><td class="gName">
</td><td class="gML">Money Line</td><td class="gSpr">Runline</td><td class="gTot">Total</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="gNum">971</td><td class="gName">TB D-RAYS, Pitcher: SONNANSTINE -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717854_5_4_0_-115_MLB" type="checkbox">-115</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717854_5_0_-1.5_140_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+140 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717854_5_2_-10_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o10-110 </td></tr><tr><td class="gNum">972</td><td class="gName">BAL ORIOLES, Pitcher: S TRACHSEL -R</td><td class="gML lineChk"><input name="game" value="717854_5_5_0_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-105</td><td class="gSpr lineChk"><input name="game" value="717854_5_1_1.5_-160_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-160 </td><td class="gTot lineChk"><input name="game" value="717854_5_3_10_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u10-110</td></tr></tbody></table>


You know the drill crew
 
I've seen a lot of hype about this kid lately and it seemed to come out of nowhere. But he's made the Reds rotation, while poor Homer Bailey is back in AAA.


Johnny Cueto Scouting Report

Standing at a mere 5-foot-10, Johnny Cueto doesn’t look like a big time prospect. But the 21-year-old Cincinatti Reds pitching prospect is a big time prospect and more. Through his first three professional seasons, Cueto has elevated his status from unheralded prospect to one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues. Cueto spent his first season of professional baseball in the Gulf Coast League, throwing 43 unremarkable innings before being promoted to the Florida State League for just six innings. He spent his second professional season (2006) between the Low-A and the High-A, and combined for 138.0 innings, 144 strikeouts and 38 walks. He has pitched in High-A, Double-A and Triple-A this year.

Strengths
Cueto has the ability to generate movement and locate his pitches. Attacking hitters from a three-quarters arm slot, he throws fairly hard and with relative ease. He commands his pitches well on both halves of the plate and works well throughout the zone.
Cueto’s best pitch is his slider. With sharp break and quick action, it’s one of the best sliders in the minor leagues. His fastball sits in the low-90s but he can reach the mid-90s from time to time. With decent movement, this pitch seems nearly unhittable when he has it working at the same time as his slider.

Growth
He added a changeup to his arsenal prior to the 2006 season, which really transformed him into the pitcher he is today. Primarily relying on his fastball, changeup and slider, Cueto has become a dominant pitcher with exciting, electric stuff and the stats to back it up.
Cueto combines good stuff with a good mentality and a great approach to pitching. He works well throughout the zone. Cueto has been an effective pitcher over the last two seasons between Low-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. His minor league strikeout to walk rate is 4.35 and he has allowed less than one hit per inning.

Conclusions
Cueto projects to be a no. 2/no. 3 starter. He will ultimately have to rely on good control to succeed. Questions remain about his durability because of his height. He threw 161.3 innings this season but showed some signs of wearing down in August. While that month shouldn’t be a major concern for Cueto, it’s hard to imagine him throwing 200.0 innings a season at this point.
Cueto will get a shot to make the Reds out of Spring Training next year but with just 22.0 Triple-A innings under his belt, the Reds might elect to start him in Triple-A next year.
 
Houston / San Diego looks to be an over spot...Marty Foster behind the plate. I really like the Houston line-up vs. lefties and Wolf has been a slow April srtarter the last few years. Frankly, Chacon is pure shit as a starter. Weather looks to be an issue as far as SD goes. Rain forecast and temps in the low 60's.

8 appears to be a little low.
 
It's year 3 for Ervin Santana... it's also the road and we all know what Ervin Santana/Road means. He struggled so much last year that he got sent back down to AAA for a while.

Road/Home Splits:
41 Games (39 Starts) 10-21, 206.2 IP, 250 H, 164 ER, 42 HR, 88 BB, 165 K, 7.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .299 Opp BA
43 Games (43 Starts) 25-9, 281 IP, 244 H, 98 ER, 22 HR, 87 BB, 201 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .234 Opp BA


Slowey is a Brad Radke type pitcher. Never seen or can't recall seeing the kid pitch but he gave up A LOT of HRs.

Road/Home Splits:
7 Games (5 starts) (2-1) 32.1 IP, 48 Hits, 22 ER, 8 HRs, 7 BB, 18 Ks, 6.12 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, .329 Opp BA
6 Games (6 starts) (2-0) 34.2 IP, 34 Hits, 13 ER, 8 HRs, 4 BB, 29 Ks, 3.41 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .245 Opp BA
 
I've been waiting for Cueto to get his shot, and I'll say its 80 percent I'm on the Reds tomorrow
 
sum tough games here getting into the 3's and 4's on the rotation.

Tigers Over?
 
Cueto vs. Davis...the rookie vs. the cancer patient...

I have no idea how to analyze that, so I'll probably pass. Don't think that laying 130 with the rookie Cueto is the right move though. Probably lean Davis.
 
Nats/Phils UNDER 1st 5?
-Moyer sub 3 ERA vs the Nats last year & lifetime, Bergmann started 5 times vs the Phils last year in his limited time, so that's a concern. Need to do a bit more research
 
frankiegotti said:
it's awfully tough to bet on the tigers right now without granderson in the lineup. It seems he complete's the batting order. Although, a KC sweep seems unlikley. I am on the fence on that game.
Click to expand...

green was asking about the over in that game, I wouldnt the tigers either. no idea how greinke well pitch and I'm not comfortable backing someone I don't know much about
 
After a nice day today with some help from Brandon Lyon and friends, I'm not sure I love the card tomorrow. However I am working and there are two afternoon games that I can listen to at work and entertain myself.
PHI RL 1.65 to win 2
I struggle to see why I am going against the hot Nationals, particularly in a run line, but I just think that the Phillies are due at home, and they are facing a familiar pitcher in Jason Bergmann that should not scare anybody. Beyond Utley and Howard though, they need to get the little guys like Victorino going-who is 0 for the season without a single hard hit ball.
ANA ML 2 to win 1.8
Unpopular pick on here I think. Anaheim has been playing pretty well so far, but from what I have seen, Slowey is better against the OBP guys than he is against the free swingers. I think Anaheim matches up well with him. Ervin Santana supposedly looked better in spring training this year, more like the original Ervin Santana, and at a fairly affordable price, I'm going to give him a shot. Morneau looks hideous for Minnesota and without him the lineup just isn't real scary.
 
frankiegotti said:
it's awfully tough to bet on the tigers right now without granderson in the lineup. It seems he complete's the batting order. Although, a KC sweep seems unlikley. I am on the fence on that game.
Click to expand...
Gotti...your right..Grandy loss is so big...but then again..leadoff hitter Renteria had all 3 hits today

Bottom line..Bannister owns us..over last few years...and we coulda scored 7-8 on Monday..untimely hitting...

But I see where your coming from
 
Dempster learnign on the fly to be a SP again and expected to be the Cubs stopper. very laughable.

Brewers face of NL
 
Getting a head start on Thursday day slate...

First game that sticks out will is the Reds vs Zona matchup. Granted I dont anymore then anyone else here about the Cueto kid . From reading he pitched fairly well this ST and started real well and didnt have a hiccup till he faced TB late and couldnt last an inning. He then bounced back the next start vs TB but has shown some command issues late in ST from what I gather. This is key IMO and trust me I am not a big UMPIRE guy but James Hoye strikes me as the type of ump who favors hitters and makes medicore pitchers bad and so on. Seeing how the kid is pitching his 1st ML game there is alot going on but one thing you wouldnt expect is for him to get any calls from Hoye. There could be nerves or adrenaline we dont know till it happens. What I do think is this kid is pretty solid to go from A ball last year to not just making the rotation but getting the #3 slot and ahead some vets and ubber prospect Homer Bailey. Baker naming him the 3rd SP speaks volumes and he should have the edge for Zona since they probably havent seen him. Also Zona tends to be free swinging and this kid is good at raking up Ks. Poor man Pedro seems to be the player that comes to mind from the scouting report. Because of his build , three quarters delivery , the moving fatsball , and new found affection for the changeup. The other part is Doug Davis. Who knows where this guy is at after the cancer diagnosis. I am sure he means well and is trying to act like everything is okay and stay distracted but weird situation . Davis also struggles with command and is a nibbler. Hoye has UMPED two of his games back in 2005 when he was in MILW. Now that year Davis walked 93 in 223 innings but in Hoyes game he walked 4 and 7 which the 7 was a career high at least to that point.. Since then his control has declined walking 102 in 203 inn and 95 in 192 innings. Those 2 starts home vs Pitt he lost 11-10 and was decent 6 inning 7hits 4runs , 3earned and 5 bbs the other start @ NYM he walked a career high 7 in 3 2/3 innings allowing 5 hits and 6 earned runs. If you look at his 2005 GAME LOG you will see right before the game @ Shea and for just about every start after he was very good. In his final 11 starts he shaved his ERA from 4.27 to 3.84...he walked 2 or less in six , 3 twice and 4 on 3 occassions. So it would seem Hoye did have some effect on him.

Davis did allow 8 hits , 9runs , 4hrs in 2 2/3 innings in what was his final ST start @ Chase Field vs Col. I think this start means alot to him but the situation just doesnt seem good for him. Zona also will probably be all RH except for LH Drew and SWH Hudson. One would think a plus for the youngster. Zona might not have Lyons available either after the blown save but he did just go 13 pitches after a day off. Cincy should have some momentum from the walkoff HR to a 12:35 start. Would like to check the weather but so far in 2 games 7 HRS already just alot of solo shots( thin first 5 were) but with a tight zone there might be alot more baserunners then the 1st two especially since Webb , Haren , Harang , and Arroyo started...pretty sizeable dropoff in quality

Hoye LYR 10.74 runs , 6.6 walks , 293 pitches . In 2006 9.75 runs , 290 pitches and 6.4 walks. In 2005 11.3 runs , 300 pitches and 7.4 walks. It seems Hoye has some trends favoring road teams but I noticed while the AWAY team won his last 9 games of the year that small favs under -140 were 10-3 and the away team might have done well because HOME dogs were 1-7 in his games.

Seems like a positive when Drew and Hudson the LHhitters were the guys who get the hits today going 4 for 7 while for Cincy Keppinger went 3/3 , Encarnacion just 1 hit but a walkoff 3 HR and Phillips had 2 hits. Patterson Hr and has had sime success vs Davis in the past as Jr and Dunn really havent.

One downfall is it is uspposed to rain and the temps should be the same as today except probably more humidity since the low will be 50 tmrw and not high 30s. Zona hit just 237 in day games and really struggled on offense but there pen was solid. Most of the Reds hit well in the day except Phillips hopefully negated by facing Davis and Patterson & Valentin. Reds pen is so-so in day games..

So looking at the OVER 9.5 and the Reds..

In Cleveland the weather seems to be okay mid 50s tmrw. Westbrook has been excellent all ST and allowed something like 7 hits in 58 atbats and striking out 20. Last year he battled injuries and that probably caused alot of his inconsistency. Westbrook has always been much better at the Jake. He should face just 3 LH bats in AJ , Thome and Swisher. Thome has hit him well 10/23 but Swisher hitting leadoff only 1/19. We could see AJ get a day off as well. Konerko has solid numbers as well at 315. Problem is 24/113 is what Cabrera , Crede , Dye and Uribe have hit. Some concern about Westbrooks stamina but teh Cle pen seems rested.

Danks himself was solid all ST whiffings 23 and walking 10 in 23 innings. Gutierrez and Garko are the big keys . The Tribe doesnt hit well in day starts only 260 last year and if you looked at the regulars it would drop below 260 but they ERA was 3.52 and the pen was real sound.Sox hit even worst in the day and struggled outside of Jenks in the pen but new faces there. Dotel is scary vs Cle but does have good day splits. Linebrink has been much better in his day splits over his career and vs LHBs.

Dreckman is somewhat of an OVER UMP but he did 4 games for these teams last year producing all UNDER and even better was the totals combined were 38 and they saw just 20 runs...Still liking the UNDER 9.5

in Philly -

Moyer pitched well at home and in day starts and has been exceptional for him vs Wash past few starts. Seems like all the Philly hitters had good day splits. For the most part Wash simply did hit well in day games though they did on Monday. Bergmann is a solid pitcher and I think he loses a tough game..like 5-3...

In StL-

Jimenez definetly the better pitcher and STL big bats do hit well in day games but so do COL...thinking about the road chalk...Jimenez real solid in the playoffs and supposedly added soem muscle for stamina and was sound in 3 day games last year..

In Minny-

Santana a question mark on the road is even worse in domes and strugled in day starts. Slowley was solid at home last year...no one is hitting whick makes 10 seem high..lean towards Minny..

in Det -

Might sound crazy about over? Bonderman has had issues at home and in day starts. grienke struggled in day games last year...will these guys are good pitchers there names seem to outweigh there accomplishments to date...

Thats my first look...GL:cheers:
 
at fist glance i thought cueto .... but then i saw doug Davis stats against the cincy bats ... he owns them. so then i think under ...but a day game in that ballpark is not anything i want to compete with.

thoughts on danks ???
 
vegaskyle said:
at fist glance i thought cueto .... but then i saw doug Davis stats against the cincy bats ... he owns them. so then i think under ...but a day game in that ballpark is not anything i want to compete with.

thoughts on danks ???
Click to expand...

Actually if you look at Davis he had one great year vs Cincy when they were terrible in 2005 which was also his best year. His last 2 years as his pitching regressed so did his indivual numbers vs Cincy.plus the Reds lineup is better then it has been past few years IMO...

in 2005<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>28</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.63</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.75</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.172</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Last 2 years

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>vs. CIN</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>37.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>32</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>28</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.58</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.49</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.230</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Last year the guys playing for Cincy tmrw were 2/11 off him (2bb -1k).

Two years ago they were 14/51 with 9 BBs 5Ks and that includes Jr being 1-12.

Granted 16/62 2hrs 6rbi isnt great vut 11bbs to 6ks is good for a 370OBP against him.

Last yr 5-9 away with a bogus 3.75 ERA that if you include the 9 unearned runs it goes to 4.59. 1.56WHIP . He was 6-7 5.76 ERA(real ERA 6.23) and 1.6oWHIP.in 2006

Last yr in day starts 1.80 whip and 300BAA...

Basically always living on th edge and bailed out by a solid pen but this could be one of those games were it all blows up just like his last ST start...

Danks I think started well lyr but seemed to struggle the more teams saw him. His 1st 8 starts went 6 innings or better in six of them. Thought he was solid @ the Jake last April as well( actually watched that one) . He had 15 bbs and 36Ks in 47.2 inn 49h and 20 runs...3.78ERA...till the end of May when he faced Minny for he 3rd time..throwing strikes is his big issue as his stuff is solid for a LH pretty good velocity think 92-93.+...just young and raw still...about 23 years old...if he can build upon last year and just be that guy from April to May of 07 he can open some eyes..key part of the MCarthy deal which I think Sox got the better off...

Hus ST numbers look good hopefully he feels more comfortable and like he belongs...looking at the 1st 5 Under and game under..I think theers a possibilty he could beat Cle but really more into the low scoring game the anything else...:shake:
 
Actually if you look at Davis he had one great year vs Cincy when they were terrible in 2005 which was also his best year. His last 2 years as his pitching regressed so did his indivual numbers vs Cincy.plus the Reds lineup is better then it has been past few years IMO...

agree.

Basically always living on th edge and bailed out by a solid pen but this could be one of those games were it all blows up just like his last ST start...

. agree

Hus ST numbers look good hopefully he feels more comfortable and like he belongs...looking at the 1st 5 Under and game under..I think theers a possibilty he could beat Cle but really more into the low scoring game the anything else...

he added a cut fastball this spring. should help him as far as the "being figured out " thing that seemed to happen to him last year ... unless he was just tiring down the stretch. inconsistent as all get out.

Westbrook is a sinkerballer and the ball wont sink and move in 50 degree weather like it will for him in the summer. that is why jake is so terrible every april. its awesome because he is always overvalued in the springtime because of his summer numbers to end the year before and you get calue betting against him and then when the heat and humidity arrive in the summer his numbers arent all that great and you get to bet on him with value when his stuff will move better.
 
Good stuff about Danks . I am still playing catch up as I didnt follow much baseball during ST so its good to know little things about pitchers making adjustments.

I looked at Westbrooks career after you pointed out how terrible he has been in April. Not sure its the weather though causing his terrible pitchng. Last 3 seasons absoluety terrible in April but he 1st two seasons were good in April . Its been night and day with him.

7.96 ERA 1.62 WHIP .291BAA
5.60 ERA 1.50 WHIP .291 BAA
6.35 ERA 1.31 WHIP .248 BAA
1.69 ERA .80 WHIP .141 BAA (only 1 start though)
2.35 ERA 1.17 WHIP .225 BAA

In 2004 ,06 and 2007 he was much better at home then away..one year he was sub 3 at home vs 5+ away ERA's...

One thing that stuck out with him is virtually all the starts are on the road and as the years went on the division got better so did the lineups he faced.

So we see Westbrooks optimal performances at home and more so in day starts.

Last year he didnt pitch a game at home till the end of April with 3 road games and 1 neutral game @ Miller Field.

The previous year just one home game before April 20th , 3 of the 1st four were away. He beat Santana in 1:05 day start similiar weather as today (44 degrees) going 7+ innings allowing 2runs and 1 hit.

In 2005 same deal 3 of 4 away and only 1 start. This time at night vs Santana but again solid. Going 8 innings 3 hits and 3 runs...

So basically what I am taking away from the L3 Aprils is the majority of his starts have been away and some have been awful like 7 runs or so...

I like Chi chances here though for sure...but went Under 9.5 and Under 5.5 1st 5 innings with some unkind viggorish..:shake::cheers:
 
Good Prop IMO @ 12:35 -

R, H , E Over 29.5 Cincy / Zona:shake:

Four high quality SP's in the 1st two games so dropoff in quality and the numbers were...

Game 1 RHE : 15
Game 2 RHE : 29

:shake::cheers:
 
Notes
Curtis Granderson still isn't sure when he will be back in the Tigers lineup, but it turns out that his broken right middle finger caused other unforeseen problems. For one thing, it made it hard for Granderson to brush his teeth, forcing him to finally break down and buy an electric toothbrush.


Not that Granderson, who prides himself on still ordering from the dollar menu at McDonalds, had to break from his penny-pinching ways.
"No, it was $5.95," he said proudly. "At Meijer. It even came with the battery included."


Granderson expects to have his hand X-rayed this weekend, at which point he should find out how soon he will be able to grab a bat.


-- As expected, the Tigers' sellout streak ended at one. On the other hand, Wednesday's crowd of 32,348 may have been the biggest second-day gathering in Tigers history. It's at least the biggest in the past 58 years, which is as far back as the Tiger records go.


The Tigers did keep another attendance streak alive. They've drawn 30,000 or more for each of their past 61 home games, dating back to last May.
-- According to the way major league baseball values contracts, Miguel Cabrera isn't going to make $152.3 million over the next eight years, after all. Instead, because of money deferred at 1 percent interest, MLB says Cabrera's contract is actually worth just $150,978,120. Feel sorry for him? ... Jeremy Bonderman was sick enough Wednesday that the Tigers told him to go home and rest, but Leyland said he still expects Bonderman to make his scheduled start against the Royals this afternoon. ... Leyland is set to drop a ceremonial puck before tonight's Detroit Red Wings game against Columbus. "I skated a lot as a kid," Leyland said. "We had a pond (in Perrysburg, Ohio). But I wasn't a good hockey player." Leyland said he attended several Pittsburgh Penguins games over the winter, along with ex-Tiger Sean Casey, who is a Penguins season-ticket holder.
 
Cueto looks solid. Real solid fastball and velocity. Due to poor mechanics terrible command of it but actually more life on it because of it. Kind of throwing to an area of the plate rather then trying to hit the glove . Throwing 95-96 consistently so far with ease. Kid has tons of confidence .

Fastball very good and live. Mostly 95 and 96 from what I saw. Also seems to be "heavy" as he broke a bat...

Slider . Okay , sharp but breaks early . You can kinda see the hump on it . So if he hangs it they will hit it hard ...probably wont be effective to LHB

Change: Decent. Good change of speed and somewhat deceptive. Definetly didnt tip it but just one in the first probably more used to LHs. Just seemed flat and straight but again it was only one...

In summary the kid remains me of well me at 22 except I wasnt hitting 95.96 consistently just topping at 91-93..same mechanics and motion..same type of slider my change was better...oh the good ole days... :36_11_6:
 
Good stuff D on Bonderman. I simply passed because tough to imagine KC sweepingbut why pay 180 with a possibly ILL SP who has terrible day splits...

Added-
Twins Even
Phills -170

for 1unit

Rockies 1st 5 {1.5u}
Rockies game and -1.5 RL {.75 each}
 
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