Thursday MLB (6/21)

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
April: 91-69-3 +29.126 Units
May: 112-109-1 +17.898 Units
June: 47-43-2 +27.575 Units

Overall: 250-221-6 +74.599 Units
Sides: 144-127 +45.288 Units
Run Lines: 17-45 -36.515 Units
Totals: 89-49-6 +65.826 Units

3-1 +3.28 Units yesterday.

KC just didn't come through, Aaron Miles was just tearing them apart and when you get men on before Pujols... shit is going to happen.

Micah Owings, nearly every start this year it seems like this is how it goes down. 1st inning starts off shaky (even though he did get 3 K's in the 1st yesterday), I think he has hit multiple guys in the 1st inning this year. He gets into high PC pretty early into the game around 6 innings he tends to always have around 100, but the impressive thing is he can work out of jams up until he hits that point then starts giving up hits, like yesterday just collapsed.

In the 3rd inning though, he came up CLUTCH. Iwamura walked, stole 2nd, throwing error from Montero so he advanced to 3rd. 0 outs with a man on 3rd. What does he do? Pitch count is 1-1 on Harris @ that point. He throws 9 pitches with Iwamura on 3rd. 8 for strikes and strikes out the side.


Anyways on to today, not going to put much into it, small card, chance to take a nice break as I put a good bit of effort on Tuesday's BoSox play and yesterday's card, mainly the Rockies/Yankees total.

Random thoughts/info/observations:
Cubs/Rangers
-Padilla hasn't lasted more than 5.2 innings in his last 6 starts. Cubs should have no problem hitting him and tthink they should Win.
-Lilly really took advantage of that ejection he had and got well rested for his last start, but it was vs. the Padres with injuries. Now he faces the Rangers who have some good left hand hitting bats even with their injuries.
-OVER looks like the play to me. You've got a nice OVER ump here today in Hoye looking at this years #'s
-Weather - 40% chance of rain and wind blowing in from right field @ 8 mph.

Yanks/Rox
-I posted how I feel about this game in Thoughts/Discussion - UNDER and Rockies
-can Rockies go for the sweep? why not. Lopez has had some good starts vs the Yankees, very familiar with this team and he's pitching well this year.
-Clemens, we've yet to see the big game from him, this would be a good time to step up and avoid the sweep. He just hasn't had the time to train/etc like everyone else and I still think he gives up a couple runs. The line is just way too high near +180 to not take the Rockies who are hitting like they can right now.
-wind blowing IN from LF @ 5 mph


Pads/O's
- Bedard is a dog, everyone would normally jump on this right away prior to their lengthy losing streak/firing etc.
- I think this is a nice spot, they're out to prove they aren't a bad team, show they can win for Perlozzo got a W yesterday. I think the O's take the Series
- the Pads aren't a good hitting team, yes they have very good pitchers but Wells is nothing special and will give up runs
- O's bullpen still an issue for me to deal with so I'd say OVER 7.5 as well. Froemming has a tendency for UNDERS though.
- Tejada had to get a CT scan after being hit in the wrist yesterday night by Doug Brocail in the 8th and as of this moment is Questionable. That's a concern for this play.
- Wind coming IN @ 9mph from LF

Dodgers/Jays
-Yanks summed it up nicely, basically a tail of him if I play it but Jays and Marcum here.
-Weathers no issue if they close the roof, might rain 20% chance but if it open, wind is coming IN slightly @ 20 MPH from LF

Pirates/Mariners
-Whats wrong with King Felix?
-The rook, well #1 draft pick a few years back and had injury problems. Is he the real deal with just no hype? I feels like everyone is jumping quickly to the conclusion that he's a Pirate and will get hit.
-Mariners bats have been cold until yesterday when they put up 7, but Maholm is awful and I think this kid has to be better than Maholm.
-Value on Pirates? they've been hitting pretty well this month, bats do disappear and yesterday it happened to be Jeff Weaver who shut them down but NL teams he can handle. Last year he showed that. Think their might be too much stock into that fact and everyone feels King Felix will do the same
-the OVER looks appealing with the pitchers, we should see the Pirates pen come in around the 6th inning and that should help us get OVER. the ump Hallion has little information to back him up in the past, this year seems pretty neutral and more road teams have won for him and road dogs as well... like I said above, value on Pirates from that stance but whatever the Kids name is did face the White Sox last week and they are awful.
-wind is blowing OUT to CF @ 8 mph, 30% chance of rain


Just my thoughts... don't even know if I'll play anything.

BOL to Yall Thursday :cheers:
 
Appears Barrett will get his first start today in SD - that has a chance
at helping the over play. The Tejada status worth noting.
 
Best of luck tonight Renew. I am going to enjoy the day off, maybe take a drive to Atlantic City tonight. Cash them tickets!
 
thanks trout - yea I dont trust them myself but I just think the M's are overpriced. King Felix is a name right now, hes not the real version.

thanks imgn - thats a nice bit of info to have on Barrett. Hopefully when the lineups come out we can confirm both he and Tejada will play today.

thanks green - not a bad idea, I just talked myself into playing some of these today because as initial leans and mostly all being dogged hell, why not. but damn, I'm going to be having a party studying, atlantic city can't top that, lol. have fun bro, can't wait til I move down to NO in 3-4 weeks.


My plays so far are all +money, that's what I like to see.

Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers OVER 10.5 +113 (Lilly v. Padilla)
The wind and chance of rain concerns me but otherwise everything else says over. Padilla, Texas bats heating up, OVER ump.

Colorado Rockies +177 (Clemens v. Lopez)
New York Yankees @ Colorado Rockies UNDER 10.5 +106
Come on... the price is ridiculous, yet it's still going up. +179 on Matchbook just after I lock mine in. Who says the Rockies can't sweep? Their bats are starting to heat up and if only they had some more solid pitching outside of Francis this could be a much better team.

Baltimore Orioles +104 (Bedard v. Wells)
Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres OVER 7.5 +112

Tejada is questionable and that's a big bat not to have in the lineup for the O's but I still feel with or without the O's have a shot at winning. Wells well give up his few runs, Bedard has the potential to shut down a team, thats the difference. Barrett may start day (imgn post above)
 
-Value on Pirates? they've been hitting pretty well this month, bats do disappear and yesterday it happened to be Jeff Weaver who shut them down but NL teams he can handle. Last year he showed that. Think their might be too much stock into that fact and everyone feels King Felix will do the same

everyone feels king felix will do the same? same as what? i don't follow you.

i am thinking the buccos are worth the 2-to-1 price tonight
 
everyone feels king felix will do the same? same as what? i don't follow you.

i am thinking the buccos are worth the 2-to-1 price tonight

Now if you saw these #'s, what would you initially think?

7 games (1-3): 37.2 IP, 69 H, 25 ERs, 12 BBs, 41 Ks, 2.15 WHIP, 5.97 ERA

Wow that guy must really suck... why would I ever back him?
That's what I would think.

Well M's backers, thats what you get since great King Felix's return.

6 HRs (all coming in his 3 of his 4 last games of LAA, BAL, SDG, HOU)
He's just getting hammered by everyone.

They have won 4 out of 7 of his starts
He's averaged just over 5.1 innings
The team has avg 5.71 runs a game in his starts, I mean not most guys get that kind of support each and every start. A 3 run difference, now they may get pumped up for his starts or just a coincidence.
The M's do have a good bullpen, which is why they were on such a tear, they don't blow leads, but whos to say they have a lead going into the late stages of this game.

what i meant was step it up to his early season form Blue Chip, the longest he's lasted since that injury has been 6 innings. A 5.97 ERA. I just don't see how THAT is deserving of being favored that much, with an M's team who hit a slump losing 6 of their last 7, 3.43 runs a game and just 2.83 runs a game in the loses. He's been fortunate enough to get run support but that can always go away, but the consistancy he is showing in his pitching, I don't think that goes away anytime soon.

This may seem a little disorganized but the bottom line is: Those stats above DON'T warrant a -200 price.
 
thanks CMoney - congrats on your Texas play, "Padilla's Flotilla" lol

thanks Satyr - He needs to learn to get outs quicker but he knows how to get out of jams, has a pretty good bat too. Rockies hit for us!


Off to a great start today 5-0 +6.12 Units

for tonights games I am looking at:
Jays -1
Pirates and OVER 9


Jays game is very windy, 18 to 25 mph is what I'm getting from various sites, blowing IN from LF or CF or Left-Center. but no idea if the close the roof... OVER ump
 
Adding:

Toronto Blue Jays -129 (Marcum v. Billingsley)
Toronto Blue Jays RL +160


I am hoping people continue to pound Seattle and the Under
 
thanks barm - lol not quite, 4-0 on the night cap wouldnt be bad either.

thanks el mago - bol with your plays tonight if you did play anything

right now 3-2 blue jays, looks like I will split the RL and ML unless Jays can get 1 more across.

Locked in:
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Seattle Mariners OVER 9 +110

will play the Pirates as well, just trying to get +208 but no one will bite so I may have to settle for less.
 
nevermind... jays choked. want to finish up a decent amount tonight so going to just leave my card as it is, hopefully we see runs in pitt/sea tonight.
 
lets cash this play CMoney :cheers:

aw fuck it im a sick degenerate today. too many nice lines right before game time on this game.

increased my total bet so its now, 1 unit on OVER 9 +121 and 1 unit @ +110 so:

Pitt +212 (Van Benschoten v. Hernandez)
Pitt/Sea OVER 9 +115.5 (2 Units)

if I lose both plays, I'll still finish up .83 Units today, thats a winning day.
 
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