Scanning Thursday Europa League for Betting Value
The first Matchday of the Europa League’s Group Stage kicks off early afternoon on Thursday. Read on for a rundown of several games worth betting on.
Olympic Marseilles vs Eintracht Frankfurt (12:55 ET)
Marseilles matches are very fun to follow. Four or five goals total were produced in all five of their matches so far. The high-scoring tendency has extended itself to Europa League matches with nine goals being scored in two Europa League matches last April. Marseilles’ defense has been notoriously bad for a while. Of the top-five teams in Ligue 1 last season, they conceded the most goals. Marseilles has tried to make changes to its back via the transfer market. But so far that effort has achieved at best a win to nil against winless Guincamp. So either the quality in the back still isn’t sufficient, the new pieces back there need to gel, manager Garcia is mismanaging his players, or his attack-oriented philosophy is producing higher-scoring matches. I think it’s a mixture of all four.
Eintracht Frankfurt is similarly problematic in the back. It’s conceded multiple goals in three of four domestic competitions, including two goals at lower-tiered Ulm. Watch out for striker Sebastian Haller to score for the underdogs. He has three goals in three appearances.
Pick: Both Teams to Score: Yes -143
Genk vs Malmo (12:55 ET)
Genk has dominated Europea League competition since January, winning all five matches, four of them by multiple goals. The combined score is 17-6 in their favor. Genk has nine goals in three home matches so far, the last one a 1-0 victory over another of Belgium’s top clubs, defensive-minded Anderlecht. The club has produced legends like Kevin De Bruyne and still holds solid scoring talent. Attacker Leandro Trossard already has eight goals for his club in all competitions. Because of his pace and dribbling skill, top Bundesliga clubs are rumored to be vying for him.
Malmo has been winning too—domestically and in one of two Europa League matches—and it’s been doing so by scoring a lot. The Swedes have produced 14 goals in their last four domestic matches and two in each of their last two Europa League matches against strong Danish side Midtjylland, who rival Kopenhagen for supremacy in Denmark. Striker Markus Rosenberg is always a threat to score. He has nine goals so far and three on the international stage, where he’s accumulated tremendous experience throughout his career. He’ll help the major underdog stay competitive.
Pick: Both Teams to Score: Yes -143
RB Leipzig vs RB Salzburg (2 PM ET)
There’s a clear difference in quality between the two Red Bulls and it’s been evident lately in Leipzig’s good form. Leipzig is 2-0-1 in three home matches so far, producing seven goals. Leipzig is loaded with quality. Yussuf Poulsen is a Danish striker who scored in the World Cup and once this season for Leipzig. Timo Werner is a German striker who is much more competent in front of goal than he showed in the World Cup. He’s complemented his shiftiness on the pitch with two goals. In the midfield, Emil Forsberg demonstrated his dribbling prowess and playmaking ability during the World Cup. Marcel Sabitzer is an Austrian national who, likewise, doesn’t score often but is pacey and creative.
Leipzig opponent RB Salzburg has rarely been losing, but it’s also been facing competition of vastly lower quality in the Austrian domestic league. Its top two strikers haven’t distinguished themselves like their counterparts at Leipzig. One plays for lowly Israel and the other has enjoyed a few appearances for Bosnia. Their last two Europa League road matches were two-goal losses in April at Lazio and Marseilles, respectively.
Pick: Leipzig -125
Ludogorets vs Bayer Leverkusen (2 PM ET)
Leverkusen is on fade alert. It’s difficult to say this because they have so much quality on paper. Many of its players appear for prestigious national teams, but several of those players have disappointed on the international stage as well. Julian Brandt, for example, struggled to provide much of a spark for lowly Germany during its World Cup catastrophe. The German catastrophe has extended domestically. Leverkusen is 1-4 so far this season, with the one win coming in a disturbingly difficult 1-0 grinder at CfR Pforzheim. To clarify how disturbing this difficult win is, Pforzheim plays in the German Oberliga, which is a class of amateur clubs that play in the Fifth League.
Ludogorets’ last match was a competitive 1-0 defeat at Milan. But it’s been winning at home, producing a combined score of 5-0 in two Europa League home matches. Its leading scorer is Claudiu Keseru, who has 27 appearances for Romania and shows good form so far.
Pick: Ludogorets +0 +115
AEK Larnaca vs Zürich (2 PM ET)
Larnaca has taken the Europa League by storm, winning its two home matches by a combined score of 8-0. Its top scorer is Ivan Trichkovski, who feels very at home in international competition. He plays for his national team Macedonia, where he has a goal so far in Nations League. For Larnaca, he has six goals so far in Europa League.
The Swiss will have to grow at home on this new stage quickly. They play their first Europa League match since 2016. Zürich has been dreadful to watch lately, failing to score a goal in either of their last two away domestic matches. Their top goal scorer is Adrian Winter, who has a paltry two goals to his name so far. He previously played for Orlando in the MLS and hasn’t scored internationally for club or for country since 2012.
Pick: Larnaca -106
Copenhagen vs Zenit (2 PM ET)
Neither team has been able to translate its domestic goal-scoring success into international success. The Danes have produced zero goals in their last two Europa League matches. In their last one, they triumphed in a long and very dramatic penalty shootout in order to make it to the group stage. In Zenit’s two Europa League road matches so far, they’ve produced one goal.
There are two players who I really like and I recommend splitting a unit on each of them to score. For Zenit, striker Artem Dzyuba distinguished himself with three goals for Russia during the World Cup. His success is continuing for his club for which he has seven goals domestically and internationally. He is a mismatch for opposing defenses with his size and strength. He’ll tower over Kopenhagen’s biggest defender by at least two inches and 15 pounds. For Kopenhagen, attacker Dame N’Doye has nine goals so far in domestic and international competition for his club. He’s not a monster of size and strength like Dzyuba, but a well-balanced combo of pace, dribbling, and physicality.
Picks: Draw +240, Under 2.5 Goals -125, Artem Dzyuba to Score Anytime +162, Dame N’Doye to Score Anytime +200
The first Matchday of the Europa League’s Group Stage kicks off early afternoon on Thursday. Read on for a rundown of several games worth betting on.
Olympic Marseilles vs Eintracht Frankfurt (12:55 ET)
Marseilles matches are very fun to follow. Four or five goals total were produced in all five of their matches so far. The high-scoring tendency has extended itself to Europa League matches with nine goals being scored in two Europa League matches last April. Marseilles’ defense has been notoriously bad for a while. Of the top-five teams in Ligue 1 last season, they conceded the most goals. Marseilles has tried to make changes to its back via the transfer market. But so far that effort has achieved at best a win to nil against winless Guincamp. So either the quality in the back still isn’t sufficient, the new pieces back there need to gel, manager Garcia is mismanaging his players, or his attack-oriented philosophy is producing higher-scoring matches. I think it’s a mixture of all four.
Eintracht Frankfurt is similarly problematic in the back. It’s conceded multiple goals in three of four domestic competitions, including two goals at lower-tiered Ulm. Watch out for striker Sebastian Haller to score for the underdogs. He has three goals in three appearances.
Pick: Both Teams to Score: Yes -143
Genk vs Malmo (12:55 ET)
Genk has dominated Europea League competition since January, winning all five matches, four of them by multiple goals. The combined score is 17-6 in their favor. Genk has nine goals in three home matches so far, the last one a 1-0 victory over another of Belgium’s top clubs, defensive-minded Anderlecht. The club has produced legends like Kevin De Bruyne and still holds solid scoring talent. Attacker Leandro Trossard already has eight goals for his club in all competitions. Because of his pace and dribbling skill, top Bundesliga clubs are rumored to be vying for him.
Malmo has been winning too—domestically and in one of two Europa League matches—and it’s been doing so by scoring a lot. The Swedes have produced 14 goals in their last four domestic matches and two in each of their last two Europa League matches against strong Danish side Midtjylland, who rival Kopenhagen for supremacy in Denmark. Striker Markus Rosenberg is always a threat to score. He has nine goals so far and three on the international stage, where he’s accumulated tremendous experience throughout his career. He’ll help the major underdog stay competitive.
Pick: Both Teams to Score: Yes -143
RB Leipzig vs RB Salzburg (2 PM ET)
There’s a clear difference in quality between the two Red Bulls and it’s been evident lately in Leipzig’s good form. Leipzig is 2-0-1 in three home matches so far, producing seven goals. Leipzig is loaded with quality. Yussuf Poulsen is a Danish striker who scored in the World Cup and once this season for Leipzig. Timo Werner is a German striker who is much more competent in front of goal than he showed in the World Cup. He’s complemented his shiftiness on the pitch with two goals. In the midfield, Emil Forsberg demonstrated his dribbling prowess and playmaking ability during the World Cup. Marcel Sabitzer is an Austrian national who, likewise, doesn’t score often but is pacey and creative.
Leipzig opponent RB Salzburg has rarely been losing, but it’s also been facing competition of vastly lower quality in the Austrian domestic league. Its top two strikers haven’t distinguished themselves like their counterparts at Leipzig. One plays for lowly Israel and the other has enjoyed a few appearances for Bosnia. Their last two Europa League road matches were two-goal losses in April at Lazio and Marseilles, respectively.
Pick: Leipzig -125
Ludogorets vs Bayer Leverkusen (2 PM ET)
Leverkusen is on fade alert. It’s difficult to say this because they have so much quality on paper. Many of its players appear for prestigious national teams, but several of those players have disappointed on the international stage as well. Julian Brandt, for example, struggled to provide much of a spark for lowly Germany during its World Cup catastrophe. The German catastrophe has extended domestically. Leverkusen is 1-4 so far this season, with the one win coming in a disturbingly difficult 1-0 grinder at CfR Pforzheim. To clarify how disturbing this difficult win is, Pforzheim plays in the German Oberliga, which is a class of amateur clubs that play in the Fifth League.
Ludogorets’ last match was a competitive 1-0 defeat at Milan. But it’s been winning at home, producing a combined score of 5-0 in two Europa League home matches. Its leading scorer is Claudiu Keseru, who has 27 appearances for Romania and shows good form so far.
Pick: Ludogorets +0 +115
AEK Larnaca vs Zürich (2 PM ET)
Larnaca has taken the Europa League by storm, winning its two home matches by a combined score of 8-0. Its top scorer is Ivan Trichkovski, who feels very at home in international competition. He plays for his national team Macedonia, where he has a goal so far in Nations League. For Larnaca, he has six goals so far in Europa League.
The Swiss will have to grow at home on this new stage quickly. They play their first Europa League match since 2016. Zürich has been dreadful to watch lately, failing to score a goal in either of their last two away domestic matches. Their top goal scorer is Adrian Winter, who has a paltry two goals to his name so far. He previously played for Orlando in the MLS and hasn’t scored internationally for club or for country since 2012.
Pick: Larnaca -106
Copenhagen vs Zenit (2 PM ET)
Neither team has been able to translate its domestic goal-scoring success into international success. The Danes have produced zero goals in their last two Europa League matches. In their last one, they triumphed in a long and very dramatic penalty shootout in order to make it to the group stage. In Zenit’s two Europa League road matches so far, they’ve produced one goal.
There are two players who I really like and I recommend splitting a unit on each of them to score. For Zenit, striker Artem Dzyuba distinguished himself with three goals for Russia during the World Cup. His success is continuing for his club for which he has seven goals domestically and internationally. He is a mismatch for opposing defenses with his size and strength. He’ll tower over Kopenhagen’s biggest defender by at least two inches and 15 pounds. For Kopenhagen, attacker Dame N’Doye has nine goals so far in domestic and international competition for his club. He’s not a monster of size and strength like Dzyuba, but a well-balanced combo of pace, dribbling, and physicality.
Picks: Draw +240, Under 2.5 Goals -125, Artem Dzyuba to Score Anytime +162, Dame N’Doye to Score Anytime +200
