Thursday Discussion...

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Austintx_05

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Well let me start this off by saying there are only 3 games which means if I stick to sides I can only go 0-3 instead of 0-5.

Phx/Dallas -3...thought Dallas should be favored by 4...less than 5 I look at Dallas more than 5 I look at Phx.

But since I apparently know nothing about basketball, as my Wednesday 0-5 record showed us, lets hear what you think...
 
I'll be taking a big, long look at Spurs Under, and Spurs ATS.

Couple of under results to finish today leaves the trend thread indicating a new Under run has arrived, and that fits in perfectly with the surface facts for at least the Spurs total tomorrow. "Everyone" will be focused on the "big game" going on at the same time, which deflects the attention from the potential steal that could/will be going down. I dont see a line but I'd be very suprised at anything lower than 182-184 given both teams have Over biased records (UTH 16-13, SAS 17-11-1). I think Utah be lucky to get past the 80s, and Spurs focus on defense should naturally restrict them to less than 100.

I'm thinking 95-85 scoreline at worst, more typically 92-83 (the Spurs lost 75-83 in Utah just on a month ago, went into that game off a loss that totaled 213 pts - hello, can anyone say almost identical circumstances)
 
Dude, I'd suggest not making any bets tonight. You seem to be quite pissed about tonight and I think taking a few hours off might be a good idea. Not trying to tell you what to do, just trying to offer some advice.

The Phoenix/Dallas game is a very tough one to call. I personally looked at the game and said no way should Phoenix get points to anybody. Of course I talked with Killa about it and his comment was that the books absolutely had to make Dallas a home favorite. So who knows? I'll probably take a strong look at the 1st qtr over and just take whoever's losing at halftime. Extremely technical handicapping. :)

No Ray Allen tomorrow for the Sonics and AI's on TNT. I'd like to see an attractive line to play the Nuggs. I personally am a big believer in AI and I know he'll try to put on a show on TNT. If there is an assist prop for him tomorrow anywhere on the internet I'd like to know what it is. Camby may play??????

Spurs "should" roll the Jazz. Jazz fan here and I think they get an eye opener on Thursday.
 
I would be suprised if that SA total was not in the 188-192 range...looking for 190...

Have to say if Dallas gets any cheaper I will probably be on them. I still think they are slightily better team on neutral court . However I tend to feel line movement will create value in this one....as PHO does have revenge on their mind....
 
Phoenix as a dog deserves a hard look no doubt...but if it goes to 2 or less, I am not so sure the "value" is on Phx.
 
When one of the West's Big 3 go against each other, I always think the road team

Spurs @Dallas = Spurs
Dallas @Spurs = Dallas
Dallas @Phoenix = Dallas

So far this season thats all its been, the road team
 
I played Dallas over 214. Last 10 between these 2 at Dallas 7-3 are over vs this number. Suns in 2006 have played on the road Thursday 6 times and the last 5 went over this number. GL
 
Second and third stage come from the Lensman series by E E Smith. Put simply it says I am good at what I do and trying to get better. GL
 
tuck321 said:
I played Dallas over 214. Last 10 between these 2 at Dallas 7-3 are over vs this number. Suns in 2006 have played on the road Thursday 6 times and the last 5 went over this number. GL
Click to expand...

I like the over 213.5 (what I got) but I don't think that trend is the reason to bet it.

GL
 
Suns/Mavs game looks like a toss up to me. I believe the Suns are playing better right now (and this year in general) and they have been streaking as everyone knows... so my lean would be the Suns or a 1stQ over.

As for the Nugz -8 is about right. Nuggets at home are always tough to play against and AI should continue to get more involved with his playmaking. AI on national tv means he should have a great game. The only question is who will step up besides him to score... I wouldn't rely on shorty Boykins to have another outstanding game. Nugz are still trying to find someone besides AI to step up and take over the scoring. With all that said if I had a gun to my head I would take the Nuggets by 12 or so.

With the Spurs game I believe they will roll over the Jazz and I really like the trend for that Under which BC mentioned. Still waiting to see the lines. Most likely I'll play a parlay (nugz/spurs ML) and a couple totals to give me something to watch.
 
I just hope Pop's comments about finding out which direction the team is going is more defensive as I think that is their root. If they revert back to their defensive ways, this game should go Under.
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Great thread guys! I have returned from the In-laws! Looking forward to these type of discussions. I really like the over in the Mavs/Suns game, as well as the insight of the road team being the better bet in these games. Thanks for the insights BetCrimes1984.</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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One comment about the road team is these matchups is that I bet if you check none of those road teams were catching less then 4 from what I remember and some may have been 5 or 5.5.....

With Allen and Lewis OUT the -8 is damn cheaper then what I expected....thought we would see -10 /-11...I mean DEN was -6 vs Boston and I'll say Boston is alot deeper then Sea...Ridinour , Wilkins , Collison , Wilcox is a solid 4 put they really dont have much else..never carzy about laying points but I think they should win another by DD's...
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Sports- I am looking at that Sea/Den game and also leaning Nuggets. The question is jump now,or later? Haven't decided yet.</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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Nut - I agree that 4 or better for the Suns would be a play. Initially I liked Phx in this game, but line is a bit short for me right now.
 
I am a huge Pheonix fan (to death) will rarely play against them. Almost did on the Wiz play but left it alone. The wiz obviously did cover. So I am thinking about playing on the Suns, it is definetely a game that either team can win, I do believe Pheonix will pull it off. It's funny how Pheonix opened up as a future bet 1/13 to win the title now they sit at 1/4, I enjoy the 1/13 Pheonix is the team this year and as long as the lines are respectable I will play them in all right situations.

The spurs are in a win situation for sure, Jazz show weakness on the road. Spurs so experienced in these situation hard to go against them. Time for all the vets to step up and stay in contention for their divison title, they know of it's importance.

As far as the Denver/Seattle game I like the Nuggets, but what is the spread??? It should not be a huge spread, Denver is absence of some key players, Ray Allen is expected to miss, so Vegas might see that as a way of giving points to Seattle. Iverson will be playing as a team leader and do what is necessary to win, I don't thing his approach will be the same as it was with the 76ers, I mentioned before he now has some teammates who will take the stress off his shoulders, other people will step up. He can do his thing and others can contribute effetiently. When the team is back in regular line-up I will show respect to this team until they prove me wrong.
 
The thing that is striking to me is that the discussion so far has handed the V to Spurs while deliberating over the other games. In their first 10 games the Spurs beat Dallas who went on to lose 3 more before winning. They beat the Bulls who had a losing record at the time as well as Suns who had a losing record at the time and beat Houston who did have a winning record. They have also beat GS who had a losing record at the time. Who else? Use the flu as an excuse for the Bucks loss. Houston? The Lakers? Utah? These were not losses because of a terrible 5 games in 7 nights. They were just losses. Elson is out. The players that suffered that stomach flu will probably play but except for Brent were too sick to practice. I am not seeing why a team that has been regularly losing to quality opposition is getting this respect. Trace Utah recently vs over 500 opposition. Prety good. I think 4-1 last 5. Spurs have lost 2 of their last 3 Thursday games although they do have the best record on Thursday of any of the teams playing. On Denver this would be Karls 800th win. Big motivation. Do not think Allen is for sure not playing. If the kid pops early he may fly up. If not do not see 8 points keeping Seattle in the game. Night.
 
tuck - Spurs have lost their last 2 at home - when the hell did that last happen? once last year, within the last 2 weeks of the season when they had all but wrapped up their division (that 2nd loss being to the Mavs) / going back the last 4 seasons, they have not lost 3 straight home games.

That said, the 3 toughest teams they've played in the last month - Utah, Dallas & Houston (- McGrady) - they have all lost, but every one of those games has been an Under result, averaging 173.3 points/game. Whether the Spurs win, ATS and/or SU, I have little hesitation in saying defense will lead the way for what will be a huge effort from them.
 
tuck321 said:
On Denver this would be Karls 800th win. Big motivation. Do not think Allen is for sure not playing. If the kid pops early he may fly up. If not do not see 8 points keeping Seattle in the game. Night.
Click to expand...

pixel.gif

After Tuesday's win over the Hornets, Ray Allen was unsure if he would accompany the team for Wednesday's flight to Denver, and is questionable for Thursday's game.

Allen's fiancée, Shannon, is expecting their second child and she missed her due date on Dec. 25. Allen said she may need to undergo a Cesarean section on Wednesday, and if so, he would miss the flight and may skip the game. "I really don't have all the details right now," Allen said. "I'll go home and talk to her and see what she says. Whatever she says, we'll go with that."

Due to the birth of his second child, Ray Allen did not travel with the Sonics to Denver on Wednesday for Thursday's game against the Nuggets.
 
Jazz-Spurs Injury News

Harpring Very doubtful with the flu
AK- IN (concussion)

Manu IN (flu)
Elson -- OUT
Barry -- questionable as far as I can find. i'd be shocked if he didn't play
 
How has Denver been playing offensively since AI joined? ...I would lean Over in this Seattle/Denver game, but I know Denver is not at full strenght here.
 
Austintx_05 said:
How has Denver been playing offensively since AI joined? ...I would lean Over in this Seattle/Denver game, but I know Denver is not at full strenght here.
Click to expand...

He's been fine, took no time at all to settle in - Karl thinks he should be shooting more
 
big dallas fan here......I have circle this game for a long time after the mavs win at phoenix early in this seasons.....this kind a game the mavs always seem to lose in this spots in the regurlar season not in the playoffs and phoenix always play good in our house in the regurlar season....with additional revenge for the last couple game they lost to us. now this game play on national tv...steve nash and phoenix will put on a show down....again I'm big mavs fan but for tonight I will put my money on the phoenix +2.5. the reason I don't play ml cause my local bookie don't offer any ml line at all....gl..:shake:
 
Generally i want to skip this card, but still i have in mind one play. DEN is expected to roll over small lineup of Sonics and Nuggets at home are over team. Should up tempo game as DEN doesnt need to defend tonite. Iverson vs Ridnour wont be defensive game at all. Still to OVER we need both teams and can SEA contribute? IMO yes they can but its question. For OVER bettors i have one idea to take DEN over 111 Team Total as for OVER its almost must line. So we can have 117:104 kinda game and will be easy OVER and easy ATS win or SEA wont be able to score and we can have 114:97 and its only OVER 211 Team total and still ATS. It looks from this like best choice is to take -8 hcp but i remember many NBA games when clear dogs without key players took role and stayed close. If its close then again it looks like OVER game with all Iverson Fts and stuff. They have fun with Boykins together minus defender Camby. If it stay close its OVER and if its OVER its again Team Total over 211 ... or am i wrong ? I dont believe that DEN will defend vs this small lineup but im not sure if SEA can contribute for OVER 214. So i have more situations and in all i found one play :

DEN OVER 211 Team Total

opinions?
 
The only downside to this is the possibilty of SEA getting blownout....dont think its a bad play but that would concern me. I do believe though that u can hedge my playing a 2nd Half team total...(if needed)...so I would keep that in mind....from LOGICAL , fundamental angle it makes sense..
 
Yeah, that concerns me as well Sports, I don't see much scoring power in Seattle tonight, I actually made a play on the under 213 Sea/Den.
 
Rogino - the problem I have with team totals is this:

The contest turns on its head and Seattle ends up winning by simply outscoring Denver (despite Allen's absence, this isnt "impossible") so it goes full-game Over, just not how its expected, yet Denver alone fails to score what you need to win. Taking team totals eliminates one way (the suprising/unexpected route) a full game Over can be arrived at.

Seattle will miss Allen less because they are playing a team without a pretense to a defense - his loss would be felt more against a stiffer defensive opponent. As the sole reason to fear Seattle not contributing to the full game Over, I'm not convinced, not against Denver's defense. Thats not saying Seattle definitely will contribute, or even that your team total cant win, but the other side of the coin is imo if SEA *fail to show*, Denver is just as likely not to grab 111+ anyway:

When Denver has restricted their opponent to less than 100 pts this season (thats your SEA not-contributing-to-the-Over total), they themselves have scored 95, 103, 106, 96 & 100 points.

So, I see the odds as basically prohibitive towards the DEN team total if SEA fail to make an offensive game of it, just as much as they would be towards the full game Over.
 
tonywho said:
big dallas fan here......I have circle this game for a long time after the mavs win at phoenix early in this seasons.....this kind a game the mavs always seem to lose in this spots in the regurlar season not in the playoffs and phoenix always play good in our house in the regurlar season....with additional revenge for the last couple game they lost to us. now this game play on national tv...steve nash and phoenix will put on a show down....again I'm big mavs fan but for tonight I will put my money on the phoenix +2.5. the reason I don't play ml cause my local bookie don't offer any ml line at all....gl..:shake:
Click to expand...

Do you see this as a 115-110 kinda game, or as a 105-100 kinda game? I think both teams score big and am considering the over. Would love your thoughts as a big follower of Dallas. Also, is Stackhouse playing?
 
The hell of truth is that taking team totals eliminates one way (the suprising/unexpected route). i agree. But betting is always about thinking in one way and confidence you are right. If its game in which SEA wont score and DEN will end in range 100-110 still winning 108:96, its game i didnt predict and was false. Ofcourse it is possible wo Allen and Lews i would say, so probably best is to skip it as we have nice card tomorrow.
 
Killa said:
Do you see this as a 115-110 kinda game, or as a 105-100 kinda game? I think both teams score big and am considering the over. Would love your thoughts as a big follower of Dallas. Also, is Stackhouse playing?
Click to expand...

Living just outside of Dallas, I watch and follow this team fairly well. I think the final score wil be more 111-108 just barely going Over and the margin being very close to the number.

Not sure if you value my thoughts after yesterday, but thats how I see this game playing out.
 
Killa said:
Do you see this as a 115-110 kinda game, or as a 105-100 kinda game? I think both teams score big and am considering the over. Would love your thoughts as a big follower of Dallas. Also, is Stackhouse playing?
Click to expand...


Killa.....here the info about stack and dirk in the local news....
Dirk sick, Stack improving
Dirk Nowitzki was excused from practice Wednesday with an illness. He watched film with the team and is expected to play tonight against Phoenix.
Jerry Stackhouse, out the last two games because of a sprained ankle, reported progress. He's officially a game-time decision, though Stackhouse doesn't expect to play.

for the game total... normally if the sun win in our house the score somewhere or atleast would be around sun 115-108 or higher. So tonight I expect the sun going to win the game straight up I will lean over the total but with stackhouse not playing tonight and dirk with an illness issue..no idea on the total for this game tonight...good luck with your play killa and keep up the good jobs you doing around here...:shake:
 
Jerry Stackhouse practiced Wednesday and did some extra drills afterwards to test his ankle.
He says he's getting closer, but is not expected to play Thursday night.
 
Thanks to all 3 of you. Dammit, I wish Stack was in. Maybe he'll still give it a go.
 
I like Dallas and the under for what its worth. Dallas D effort simply flies under the radar and I think they can dicatate tempo as well.

Looking over the numbers only 1 team scored 100 pts on Dal this season since the 0-4 start and that was LAL needing 41 FT attempts. Most teams dont even crack 90 points in DAL. Clearly the SUNS are a different animal but DAL has kept them below 100 on many occassions in the past...

Tough card...
 
I also like the Under in Dallas. I don't have the balls to play it and won't be making any plays on the O/U unless something presents itself at halftime. Great night of basketball watching, but not so sure about the gambling part.
 
I have the Jazz pregame radio show on right now and I haven't heard any updates about who's in or out.
 
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