posted 5-3 yesterday and only played two for a nice 1-1 after TB blew it with 4 outs remaining. Wisler's reinjury didn't help
leans:
LUZARDO hard to trust him but recent results suggest a change in his plan, which is important as he's a huge arm and top prospect. MIA survived in extras yesterday after yet again struggling to score. That will be what happens moving forward, MIA bullpen is in great shape after alcantara went 9ip while NYM used four arms but all should be available today. Stroman pitches to a little too much contact for anybody's liking, but his slider control is elite and that makes a difference. The odds are incredibly large for a team who has fallen out of the playoff race, market only giving MIA 38.8% chance to win today seems way off
senzatela has been solid, but probably should avoid the heck out of the COL bullpen who is really shaky with Chacin to Estevez and somehow more shaky than it was with Bard. COL offense on the road is a joke, too
lopezr has never been good to me, liked him as a prospect but injuries have hurt him and his numbers are good but he seems to struggle whenever i back him. The nice part here, is that he opposes Manaea who was great in his last start @ TOR but five bad ones in a row before that. Thankfully laid off Keuchel last night who was okay before things got ugly late, CHW good pen didn't work. OAK only went to Chafin to close, which is a change but is pretty crazy after all to see how OAK has completely overhauled its bullpen in the past month. Who to expect late is a monster question, looks like Diekman is more important than Trivino but both fall behind Chafin and Romo rn. CHW dealing with some injuries all across the roster, want to see the lineup here but Manaea has always had trouble with Ks and if CHW has their R heavy lineup it will be very tough for him to follow up another. He has improved his K-rate, but his arm seems to have days where it just doesn't work as well and the market is only giving CHW 42.9% chance to win today and that seems low
hernandezc has a big arm that does not have the k% i want to see, but that's been a bit better since he got in the rotation and he's got a great lineup to feast upon tonight. Means has been off since the sticky substance ban, his team is terrible and KC blowing a massive lead last night makes me believe KC will be pretty sore and motivated in a game where motive is certainly a question. KC bullpen is better than they're rated and the lineup is fine too. Can't believe they're a dog and it fits my bet against bad teams idea
berrios is hard to avoid since NYY is floundering and collapsed even after the big Gardiner 3-run shot to tie the game in the 5th last night. Lots of NYY bullpen and Chapman was pretty bad. Romano dominant again, worked b2b and though he hasn't worked b3b this season I expect he will be used if necessary after b2b clean innings and within 2 GB of the wildcard against a rival for the playoffs. Cimber was great, Merryweather activated is scary but at least adds some depth with Richards who has emerged in that bullpen and Pearson around too. Cortes has looked like he's not fooling as many lately, Berrios can get smacked but has far better swing-and-miss stuff so i think i'll be on the Jays if they close a dog (may move to lock them in before the odds switch if it starts to trend that way too)
