Thursday Discussion/Thoughts

[reNew Orleans]

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="7" class="blk-title">MLB Baseball - Thu 7/19</td> </tr> <tr class="wht-title" bgcolor="#16177c"> <td colspan="3">Game</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Run Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Total Runs</td> <td>More </td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">951</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Arizona D-Backs
L. Hernandez</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -146 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+148 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 11:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">952</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Milwaukee Brewers
Y. Gallardo</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-156 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">953</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Francisco Giants
M. Morris</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+151 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 11:20 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">954</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago Cubs
T. Lilly</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-159 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">955</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cincinnati Reds
M. Belisle</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -138 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+156 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -112 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">956</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Florida Marlins
S. Mitre</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +128 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-164 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +102 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">957</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Colorado Rockies
U. JIMENEZ</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +152 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-108 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">958</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Washington Nationals
M. Chico</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -162 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+100 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">959</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">St Louis Cardinals
M. Maroth</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -126 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+172 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +104 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:35 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">960</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Atlanta Braves
T. Hudson</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +116 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-180 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -114 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">961</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Philadelphia Phillies
C. Hamels</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -194 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+116 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 7 +106 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">962</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Diego Padres
C. Young</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +181 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-124 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 7 -116 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">963</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Mets
T. Glavine</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -201 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+113 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">964</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Los Angeles Dodgers
D. Lowe</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +183 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8 -105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">965</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">LAA Angels
K. Escobar</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-159 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 +111 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 09:10 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">966</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Tampa Bay Devil Rays
A. Sonnanstine</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -114 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+151 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -121 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">967</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Toronto Blue Jays
D. McGowan</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -103 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+204 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 -104 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">968</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Yankees
C. Wang</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 -107 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-222 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -106 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">969</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Detroit Tigers
J. Bonderman</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +130 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-125 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +104 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:10 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">970</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Minnesota Twins
S. Baker</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -140 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+117 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -114 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">971</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago White Sox
J. Vasquez</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -118 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+185 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 +111 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">972</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Boston Red Sox
D. Matsuzaka</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +108 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-201 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -121 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 7/19</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">973</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cleveland Indians
C.C. Sabathia</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +108 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-150 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:35 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">974</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Texas Rangers
K. Loe</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -118 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+142 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 -105 </td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bordercolor="#cccccc" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ff0000"><td colspan="3" class="sports-label">Thursday, Jul 19</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb"> American League </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Time</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Game</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Starters</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">12:10 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> LA Angels at Tampa Bay
Home Plate Umpire: Dale Scott</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Kelvim Escobar
Andy Sonnanstine
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Toronto at NY Yankees
Home Plate Umpire: Tim McClelland</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Dustin McGowan
Chien-Ming Wang
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">1:10 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Detroit at Minnesota
Home Plate Umpire: Phil Cuzzi</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Jeremy Bonderman
Scott Baker
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Chi. White Sox at Boston
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Javier Vazquez
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">8:35 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Cleveland at Texas
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> C.C. Sabathia
Kameron Loe
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb"> National League </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Time</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Game</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Starters</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">2:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Arizona at Milwaukee
Home Plate Umpire: Bob Davidson</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Livan Hernandez
Yovani Gallardo
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">2:20 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> San Francisco at Chi. Cubs
Home Plate Umpire: Lance Barksdale</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Matt Morris
Ted Lilly
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Cincinnati at Florida
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Matt Belisle
Sergio Mitre
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Colorado at Washington
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Ubaldo Jimenez
Matt Chico
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:35 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> St. Louis at Atlanta
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Mike Maroth
Tim Hudson
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">10:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Philadelphia at San Diego
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Cole Hamels
Chris Young
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">10:10 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> NY Mets at LA Dodgers
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Tom Glavine
Derek Lowe
Bullpen Availability</td></tr></tbody></table>
Rest of umps are unknown

 

[t-dot]

Jays at +204, but the better play might be Jays first 5 innings +193 pk.

 

[Blue_Chip]

toronto +204... maybe

 

[reNew Orleans]

Chris Young seems fairly cheap

COL/WAS Over 9
Info on Ubaldo Jimenez

Jimenez appeared in two games for Colorado last season, starting one. The 23-year-old was 8-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 19 starts for Triple-A Colorado Springs before being promoted Tuesday. Jimenez might find himself back in the minors soon as Jason Hirsh (ankle) continues to work his way back from injury. Treat Jimenez as nothing more than a NL-only option in the meantime.

Right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez will start for Colorado on Thursday night against the Washington Nationals, and Taylor Buchholz is headed for the Rockies bullpen. Rodrigo Lopez, who had been the scheduled starter Thursday, will be pushed back to Saturday. "Everybody's looking for pitching," manager Clint Hurdle said. "We might have something right here, so I think it's in our best interests to look at home first."

Det/Min Under 9

 

[TicketMan]

theres not much out there for dog players tommorow, idk looks like a tough day might have to lay some jucie to win tommorow anyone see any good dogs? texas +1.5 -118 looks too me like a solid play loe on the mound CC pitching like dog shjit

 

[TicketMan]

reds over 9, reds htitting well and belisle is a disater

 

[TicketMan]

redz pen is garbage

 

[TicketMan]

LAD -120 LOOKS GOOD altho the mets just hit a dinger and if they win this game after being down 4-1 on the road to the padres they might have momentum go mets tonight got them huge

 

[TIGATOR]

Thursday thoughts

Renew-
I really enjoy this thread, thought I would post my two cents-
really like the over in the Cicy game, I agree Belisle is a disaster and Mitre gave up 4 or 5 last time vs them. Also liking first 5 with Torr. I hate laying -159 but Escobar looks good against the D rays. Cws Vazquez is 1-4 @ Fenway, while Dice K is 6-2. just some thoughts-

 

[imgn]

Winds in wrigley should be pitcher friendly...20 mph range
D Lee out again ... has/had good #s v Morris
Lilly with nice day/home splits ...2 er less for day
Bonds with 2 hrs in 8 abs vs Lilly
Cubs off a high scoring game
Any line guess here ? 8 u
Scalp opportunity possible

 

[albyman32]

Sabathia has been awful lately. He shouldn't be favored by that much.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

7 of MIL's last 8 home wins have been Unders

AZ is 7-0-2 to Under their last 9 on the road

AZ average 3.6 runs on the road after scoring 4+ road runs (15 occasions, only surpassing a 5 run total twice) their previous game, vs NL teams

 

[Man on Fire]

The Rangers will try to avoid the midweek curse that has dogged them all season. They are 2-10 on Wednesdays and 3-9 on Thursdays this season. They have a winning overall record for the other five days of the week.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Rockies 8-1 on the runline last 9 road games, 12-3 their last 15 overall.

The Rocks have only once won a 4th in a row when the 4th game was a road game this season. That was vs a SFN team embarking on a 6-20 streak (Rocks swept that 3 game series).
Otherwise, the Rocks are 2-5 when carrying a winning streak (min. 2 games) into a road game this season.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Chris Young seems fairly cheap

..... and the total is only 7.0, not even 7.5

given Philly is a whopping 26-8-1 to Over last 35 games (only 22.8% Unders), those 2 facts automatically suggest to me they're pegging Hamels to shut SD down. Because I can't see them failing to sell O7.5 given the Futilities Over streak plus the way they hit righties.

My worst book has this game 6.5 - 6.5 for a Phils game:36_11_6:

Something smells rotten

 

[Man on Fire]

..... and the total is only 7.0, not even 7.5

given Philly is a whopping 26-8-1 to Over last 35 games (only 22.8% Unders), those 2 facts automatically suggest to me they're pegging Hamels to shut SD down. Because I can't see them failing to sell O7.5 given the Futilities Over streak plus the way they hit righties.

My worst book has this game 6.5 - 6.5 for a Phils game:36_11_6:

Something smells rotten

Hamels has a WHIP of 1.57 against leftie bats and the Pads have 3-5 leftie bats.


Hamels has a BABIP of .311 which is right in line with qualifed leaders
Chris Young has a BABIP of .263
Johan Santana has a BABIP of .261

Young will regress further this year, maybe this game.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

SD has now gone 19 home games without winning 2 straight. Over this stretch of games they are 0-7 in their next home game after a home win, averaging 2.57 runs - they were the favourite in every one of those losses.

They of course enter this game off of a win vs the Mutts last night. Just some food for thought.