Thursday Discussion/Thoughts

reNew Orleans

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Thu 6/14</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">901</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Diego Padres
J. Germano</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -211 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-102 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -108 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 09:10 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">902</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Tampa Bay Devil Rays
J. Howell</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +191 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-106 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -102 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/14</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">903</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">LAA Angels
B. Colon</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +123 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-128 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -127 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 09:35 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">904</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cincinnati Reds
H. Bailey</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -133 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+120 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +117 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/14</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">905</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Arizona D-Backs
D. Davis</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 +104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+227 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 -101 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">906</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Yankees
A. Pettitte</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 -114 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-245 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -109 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/14</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">907</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Milwaukee Brewers
B. Sheets</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -217 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-102 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +103 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">908</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Detroit Tigers
C. Durbin</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +197 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-106 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -113 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/14</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">909</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Oakland Athletics
C. Gaudin</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -220 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+102 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8 +101 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 11:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">910</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Houston Astros
J. Jennings</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +200 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-110 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8 -111 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/14</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">911</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Seattle Mariners
Jef. Weaver</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+140 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 11:20 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">912</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago Cubs
J. Marquis</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-148 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/14</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">915</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Colorado Rockies
J. Francis</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -116 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+185 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +114 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">916</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Boston Red Sox
J. Beckett</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +106 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-201 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -124 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/14</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">919</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Washington Nationals
J. Simontacchi</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -120 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+180 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +111 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">920</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Baltimore Orioles
J. Guthrie</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +110 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-191 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -121 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/14</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">921</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">St Louis Cardinals
K. Wells</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +149 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-107 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10.5 -116 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">922</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Kansas City Royals
S. Elarton</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -159 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-101 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10.5 +106 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/14</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">923</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Atlanta Braves
T. Hudson</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -144 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+168 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 7.5 +100 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">924</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Minnesota Twins
Jo. Santana</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +134 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-176 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 7.5 -110 </td></tr></tbody></table>

And Go!
 
Texas Rangers @ Pittsburgh Pirates is not listed above.

Green told me there is a pitching change in the game tomorrow.
Loe replacing McCarthy vs. Gorzy, line was previously -154 Buccos
 
UMPS:

SD/TB - Jerry Crawford
LAA/CIN - Larry Vanover
ARZ/NYY - Lazaro Diaz
MIL/DET - Paul Emmel
OAK/HOU - Mike Reilly
SEA/CHC - Tim McClelland
COL/BOS - James Hoye
WAS/BAL - Marvin Hudson
CLE/FLA - Doug Eddings
TEX/PIT - Hunter Wendelstedt
STL/KC - Mark Carlson
ATL/MIN - Ed Hickox

Cleveland @ Florida was also not listed in the lines posted above
- info on that game
- Jason Stanford v. D-Train

The Indians will call up left-hander Jason Stanford to start Thursday against the Marlins.
 Stanford, taking Jeremy Sowers' spot, will remain in the rotation until Jake Westbrook is ready to come off the disabled list. The 30-year-old is 4-1 with a 3.41 ERA for Buffalo.
-From Rotoworld.com
 
Looking at the lines, I'm leaning on Germano and the Padres both in ML and RL. Also looking at Sheets and the Brew Crew to stun the Tigers. Detroit might be in a let down spot after the show Verlander put up last night.

Just some initial thoughts.
 
I follow TB closely and I would be careful betting against them at home. Howell should rebound from a terrible last outing. Like that fact that TB got blown out today. They will respond tomorrow. Very scrappy team and lots of sticks.
 
Question about the umps...how do we know if the umps is partial to an over/under record? Where can we get info about that?

Any site/s you can recommend Renew. Thanks!!!
 
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AgainstThePublic said:
I follow TB closely and I would be careful betting against them at home. Howell should rebound from a terrible last outing. Like that fact that TB got blown out today. They will respond tomorrow. Very scrappy team and lots of sticks.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info ATP. I'll take that into consideration before pulling the trigger on the Padres.
 
TB/SD - looks like Germano has gotten slighty worse after each start and looks like Howell can rack up some K's but doesn't have a large sample of games to support. I just couldn't back TB when Germano has pitched well in multiple starts and the SD bullpen easily outclasses TB.

KC/STL - I'd have to go with KC as well, but that seems like a risky game to bet on with those two pitchers.

COL/BOS - I'd have to agree with the BOS RL, i looked at this game initially when I saw Jeff Francis as a big dog but Beckett's career #'s vs the Rockies are very good and the Red Sox have hit lefties very well this year. Rockies bullpen also unreliable

ARZ/NYY - Yankees have been so hot that's probably a good play for a while.
 
c.r.e.a.m. said:
Question about the umps...how do we know if the umps is partial to an over/under record? Where can we get info about that?

Any site/s youcan recommend Renew. Thanks!!!
Click to expand...

http://covers.usatoday.com/data/mlb/game/mlb_game.html
- you have to click each game but you will see some their O/U tendencies for this year

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/umpires.html
- list of all the umps, you can go through their past years

Shortline provides some good information on umps though, I don't know where he gets it but you may get a lot more useful info from him.
 
AgainstThePublic said:
I follow TB closely and I would be careful betting against them at home. Howell should rebound from a terrible last outing. Like that fact that TB got blown out today. They will respond tomorrow. Very scrappy team and lots of sticks.
Click to expand...

I'm sure you know more than I do then. Just a game I don't think I would bet on personally.
 
Thanks Renew. What are your initial thoughts? Any games that caught your eye?

I like TB and KC from here on out. Good value on both of them.
 
These look pretty tempting:

Cincinnati Reds +120
- basically Colon looks like a completely different pitcher this past month, giving up tons of hits. The Reds suck, but they are 5-6 on the month. Is Homer Bailey the real deal? no idea, many around here think he is, so maybe I'm getting caught up in the hype but this play would be more of a fade on Colon vs a solid pitcher.

Oakland Athletics +102
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros UNDER 8 -111
Gaudin has been sharp all year long. He's still a slight dog, I wouldn't be surprised to see the A's line move like it did today. The total looks great if the SP can last atleast 7 each, those bullpens though could blow it at any point the way they are pitching. The A's keep winning, now 9-3 on the month.

Seattle Mariners @ Chicago Cubs OVER ???
Whatever it is, Hot M's bats v. Marquis and Weaver + McClelland
 
As far as KC goes, definitely was waiting on this one to hit the over. But it is a pretty steep number and the ump looks to be a pretty solid under ump-calling about 64% strikes- which sucks. Still think it is over or nothing. As far as a side, there surely are better bets on the board. Don't think there is much value on the Royals with Elarton pitching. Ditto for Wells. Elarton's been fortunate to match up against some pretty shitty pitchers to keep his w/l record respectable. Other than that, his numbers are terrible. Can't imagine he'll be in the rotation much longer. GL.
 
I was looking at Oak as well. Gaudin has pitched very well and Oak at + money is always nice this time of year when they start peaking.
 
Rangers fucking suck. I can't stand to watch this team anymore. They are a pretty good fade tomorrow (as if they aren't every night) but even moreso tomorrow. Their record on getaway day is absolutely atrocious. The team was just so defeated in postgame interviews today. They felt good after taking 2 of 3 from the Brewers and showing some life. Now they've lost 2 to a really crappy team and lost them in typical manner (getting behind early thanks to bad pitching, no hitting, horrible defense). This has really soured the mood again and they are as low as they've ever been. Gorz has been solid this year and the Rangers have not been able to hit any pitchers this year that are above average (except for Halladay one time). Loe has been totally awful and he was sent down to AAA to work on developing secondary pitches. What kind of major league pitcher needs to work on developing secondary pitches? But since McCarthy, the only decent Rangers pitcher the last few weeks, is going to the DL (when it rains it pours) the Rangers were forced to call Loe back up before he was even able to get in any work in AAA. RL this bitch when it comes out just like tonight.
 
buffetgambler made a good thread at covers about teams overperforming and to expect to start to get pulled in by the pack a bit more from here on out. Boston was one of them (witness their performance tonight), the Angels were another.

The Angels are 3-3 their last 6 after a 21-6 run. Whats noticable about this recent .500 stretch is they're conceding an average of nearly 6 runs/game, where for that 27 game performance stretch they held 17 teams to 3 or less. The signs are there underlining BG's assertion. Unfortunately Cincy is such a hit or miss team, literally (I might note, they are 4-2 their last 6, and they have not won 5 of 7 this season). But I've made plenty over past seasons backing Colon Overs, one would think their bats could come around. I know nothing about the Reds starter, thou.
 
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AgainstThePublic said:
I was looking at Oak as well. Gaudin has pitched very well and Oak at + money is always nice this time of year when they start peaking.
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I had the Over in Gaudin's last start. He didnt pitch well, but SFN were too horrible to take full advantage of the situations they created.

HOU maybe no better, but they are 6-7 (4.76 runs/game) over their last 13, a far cry from the 1-12 run for the 13 games preceded it.
 
albyman32 said:
Rangers fucking suck. I can't stand to watch this team anymore.
Click to expand...

Rangers fucking suck? The Rangers fucking suck you say?

Well what about the fucking Mutts? Yeah, the fucking NY Mutts who have had their over-paid and overrated asses kicked for the past 3 nights out in LA!
And what about the fucking Red Sox and one of their so-called aces in Schilling who got their sweet little asses kicked right at Fenway against the Rockies last night?
And you have the gall to say the Rangers suck?
You had better add a few more teams to the list next time my boy!
:down:
 
wow discussion got far already.haha..let me eat my white castle, read this shit vover and i should have sum thougts
 
Colorado is 8-2 last 10 on the road. Boston is 5-5 last 10 at home. Francis is 6-4 last 10 on the road. Colorado is getting 185 and they are hitting .289 to Boston's .254. Does this seem strange? A lot of people bet on Arizona today against a surging Yankee team and lost. Tomorrow the surging team is getting the plus money and the team that is struggling is the big favorite. Francis is better than Cook but when Wakefield had a great game Boston could only win 2-1. Can anyone here look at Boston right now and see the Mets or the Yankees earlier in the year?
 
actually pretty pissed off right now, white castle forgot my marinara sauce for my mot-sticks...fuken stupid motherfukers... thoughts in a minute
 
alright, first some thoughts from Wednesday..

WSux are prob top 3 worst teams in the league right now.
Wheeler is a sorry fuken pitcher, sorry for the language.
Texas continues to suck on the road and in general.
Minnesota is abusing ATL.
Mutts - oh my are they fade material vs The REAL team in NY
Brewers showed some heart and actually got some hits today.


Now onto Thursday..


Padres - This game was PK earlier, now -106 germano, so still basically PK. Ok, both pitcher were hit last start, we know a little more about Germano than we do Howell. Its good to see SD bats woke up but again they are among the worst in MLB in total offense. Bullpen wise, this game is not even close.

Brewers - Game was PK as well earlier and still that way. I am a Sheets fan so I could be a little biased here. Brewers are a bad road team but I do not believe in Durbin. Still I give the edge in bullpen to Brewers. I am a bit concerned though that they were used quite a bit tonight but Villanueva was solid. Again, I don't believe in Dirty Durbin.

A's - Gaudin gets no respect and I don't know why exactly. Yes Jennings has pitched pretty good since coming back from the DL, but read what I said above, Wheeler fuken blows and as long as he has a part in these games, forget about it. If A's had a full bullpen, this game is a no brainer for me. I will have to look into it deeper but I think Gaudin at -103 is still value.

Pirates - Give me the line on Gorzelanny whenever. Texas on the road is one of the biggest fades in this league. Gorz is actually more solid than Snell and the Pirate bats are awake. Loe has done nothing this yr to sell me on him.

Those are some quick thoughts, some early games guys so lets hit this shit
 
Green, I am right there with you with the Pit Thoughts. I will probably be doing another -1 play for them. It worked out good last night.

Call me a sucker, because I am going to be betting the A's in a couple minutes. I really don't understand this line. I mean it not like I understand most lines, but this one I really don't understand. Jennings has not gone past 6 at home so that means we get some Houston bullpen, which is fine with me. I am still not convinced Lidge is "light's out" yet. And Jennings got his lone win against the White Sox? Please tell me how that means anything at this point. If I lose this wager, I am cool with that, cause I feel like I have my money on the better team.
 
umm how can lidge be lights out, isn't he the reason the game on tuesday went to extras anyway? guy is far from lights out, like outerspace
 
In no particular order these are the scores of KC in their last 6 home series in the last game.
13-17 Oak
4-13 Det
3-10 Cleveland
4-7 Sea
0-3 baltimore
17-5 Phillies
The 2 starters are actually rather weak in tomorrows game. The winner tomorrow win the series so I would expect violence. Last year these teams played played 6 games and 5 of them went over this 10.5.
Am now locked in on the over but have made only a token bet on Colorado plus 85 cents. Think while odd that it is more likely to go up then down so just a small early position. Oh, under ump in that game
 
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Tuck - good info, I dunno if this game will make my cut though. I am 0-2 vs Kip Wells and he has what, 2 wins this yr...Figures.. I might avoid this game completely and I am not good at totals, shit I have enough trouble with a side
 
Obviously the Weaver over is worth a look, depending on where they set it. Call me crazy, but I may take Seattle again tomorrow. Now hear me out. He pitched pretty well against the Padres last time out before coming out with back stiffness. That is a concern yes, but, they did get the win. Of course he didn't, but I am of the opinion he shoulda stayed in the NL instead of chasing big money elsewhere. But I suppose being horrible at your job and collecting a nice check is nice, but I would start to get a little pissed at myself for losing all those games if I were a professional athlete.

He has 2 starts against the cubs last year while with St. Louis and 2 wins. The numbers are gaudy, but they usually always are with this guy.

Looks like the M's will be without Beltre for a few days because of a strained thumb, that is a concern, but everyone still seems to be hitting pretty well.

Marquis is not a bad pitcher, and in all reality I want a bit more with Weaver before I pull the trigger. I think I will probably get it, with the combination of his horrible numbers and peoples love to put money on the Cubs.

I may just play the over, if its reasonable, but I am leaning hard to Seattle right now.
 
green, I was meaning that comment about Lidge to mean he is not pitching to his past reputation. Wasn't that his nickname, "light's out Lidge". Maybe I heard it wrong.
 
slim5150 said:
green, I was meaning that comment about Lidge to mean he is not pitching to his past reputation. Wasn't that his nickname, "light's out Lidge". Maybe I heard it wrong.
Click to expand...

nah i wasnt picking on no one.. i understand..



for people considering the A's...ahhh homer ump who prob has money on the astros.


Home-team umpire?
There’s good news for Houston as they close out a series against Oakland on Thursday. In umpire Mike Reilly’s last eight appearances at home plate, the home team has gone 6-2.
Even better news for the Astros: the home team has gone 21-7 in Reilly’s last 28 interleague games behind home plate.
Oddsmakers have made Houston the -105 favorites for the game.


stolen from covers article
 
Alright guys, a real breakdown instead of the bullshit I have been spitting for 20minutes

I am not even going to give Gorzelanny details here, if you don't have an idea about him by now than you are clueless.

Loe will replace McCarty and what that means is that a pitcher who is 1-6 w/ 7.40era will be starting the game.

Loe away this yr = 0-2, 8.10era, 5g, 20ip, 29h, 10bb, 10.

Add the fact that the Rangers are THE WORST road team in baseball and we have an absolute play on the Pirates -1.

I would think Gorzelanny might be -175 or some shit but the RL will prob be +130 or something because they are looked at as a team who doesn't win by large margins but they now have 19wins by 2+ runs.

I could be totally off on my line guess here but Loe is FADE material, no matter what.
 
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12:10 Early Bird Special:

Padres -105 / DRays -105:

Germano sailed through his first 5 starts really until running into the red hot Mariners where he lasted 5ip-8h-5er.

Germano L3: 2-0, 5.29era, 17ip, 19h, 2bb, 8k
Germano this yr: 4-0, 2.75era, 36ip, 31h, 4bb, 13k
Germano Away: 2-0, 2.00era, 3g, 18ip, 15h, 2bb, 3k

Germano is a ground ball pitcher, not a power pitcher and so I am not real concerned about his K's because that is not what he does.

Padres bats woke up a little and there is no doubt they have a bullpen advantage here.

Howell, we know a little less about. Howell was one of Tampa Bay's final cuts at the end of spring training. He has made 2 starts this yr and really its impossible for anyone to have a feel for him here except that he strikes a decent amount of batters out. From what I know, striking a lot of batters out is not always the best thing, it means working long into the counts and shorter into the game and in this case, not a good thing for the DRays.

Vs. KC: W = 8ip, 5h, 1er, 0bb, 7k
@ FLA: ND = 5ip, 8h, 6er, 3bb, 9k

San Diego is an average road team and DRays are an average home team.

SD hits LHP better than they do RHP and DRays hit both RHP/LHP about the same.

One important key here is BJ Upton, he didn't play in Wednesday's game and is not expected to play in Thursdays game. Upton has been arguably their best hitter this yr.

I lean to the Padres at PK
 
does anyone have a 2nd opinion on the Reds/Angels?

I might have to just bet Pitt tomorrow for the sake of it. Seems like some of the easiest money to be made all year
 
reNew Orleans said:
does anyone have a 2nd opinion on the Reds/Angels?

I might have to just bet Pitt tomorrow for the sake of it. Seems like some of the easiest money to be made all year
Click to expand...

You have a guess on the line?

Loe is awful, Rangers are worse than he is on the road and the Pirates going for a sweep have much more momentum than the Rangers do to avoid it. Add in Tex being out for the Rangers, by far their best hitter and Gorzelanny being a tough pitcher and man this game seems way too obvious. Pirates don't always get a chance to sweep so I really think they jump at the opportunity here.
 
I f you want to extend his record last 3 years the home team is 47-29. I was just looking at Gaudin and Jennings. I believe Gaudin recently has been very lucky. General concensus is 2.5 men on base adds to a run. Last game in 6.2 innings 6 hits and 4 walks gives up 2 runs. Game before 5 innings 8 hits and 5 walks and gives up 2 runs. Bottom line is every inning 2 men are on base. Luck is not something you own. This guy is due to get hit hard.
 
reNew Orleans said:
does anyone have a 2nd opinion on the Reds/Angels?
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I have no desire to get involved here simply because I feel there are better games out there. This is only Bailey's 2nd start and who knows what is up with Colon right now. On top of that, I am still really pissed off at the Angels so I can't think with a clear mind on this game but just feel there is too much unknown here. I don't even have a lean, never seen Bailey pitch and don't know if Colon is still hurt
 
tuck321 said:
I f you want to extend his record last 3 years the home team is 47-29. I was just looking at Gaudin and Jennings. I believe Gaudin recently has been very lucky. General concensus is 2.5 men on base adds to a run. Last game in 6.2 innings 6 hits and 4 walks gives up 2 runs. Game before 5 innings 8 hits and 5 walks and gives up 2 runs. Bottom line is every inning 2 men are on base. Luck is not something you own. This guy is due to get hit hard.
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Astros just don't hit anyone hard though.

I really think Gaudin is underpriced here but with two early games I lean more strongly too and Pitt later at night, this game looks like it won't make my cut either.

If it comes down to bullpens then you have to flip a coin and I am not doing that with my money tomorrow
 
no idea... im guessing around -180, I don't know if the books feel like they can go much past that even if it's Loe pitching. But then I tell myself no way they would make the Pirates that big of favs.
 
I think the Reds are probably the right side. Bailey had a 2.36 minor league era that was actually better than the numbers and Anaheim plays in city rival Dodgers next day so saving Colon may be a low priority
 
Colon has been giving up HR after HR and the Reds have guys who can certainly hit HRs. Over might not be a bad option, I feel like this thing could go over in the first 5 or 6 innings. Set @ 9 with Vanover. Seems like its a public play though as it's -132 on Pinny
 
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