Thursday Discussion/Thoughts

[reNew Orleans]

And Go.

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="7" class="blk-title">MLB Baseball - Thu 6/7</td> </tr> <tr class="wht-title" bgcolor="#16177c"> <td colspan="3">Game</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Run Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Total Runs</td> <td>More </td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">951</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Pittsburgh Pirates
I. Snell</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +115 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8 -104 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 10:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">952</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Washington Nationals
M. Chico</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -125 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+128 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8 -106 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">953</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Houston Astros
R. Oswalt</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +106 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-149 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 +114 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 12:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">954</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Colorado Rockies
J. Fogg</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -116 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+141 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -124 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">955</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Philadelphia Phillies
C. Hamels</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -221 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8 +110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">956</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Mets
J. Maine</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +201 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8 -120 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">957</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago Cubs
R. Hill</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -212 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 -101 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:35 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">958</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Atlanta Braves
C. James</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +192 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 -109 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">959</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cincinnati Reds
K. Lohse</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -158 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -108 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">960</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">St Louis Cardinals
A. Wainwright</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +148 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-144 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -102 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">961</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Francisco Giants
N. Lowry</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -196 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+111 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 +109 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 06:40 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">962</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Arizona D-Backs
L. Hernandez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +181 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-119 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 -119 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">963</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Los Angeles Dodgers
H. Kuo</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -112 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+197 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 7 +101 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">964</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Diego Padres
J. Peavy</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +102 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-215 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 7 -111 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">965</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Kansas City Royals
O. Perez</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 +105 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+226 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 +108 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 09:05 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">966</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cleveland Indians
F. Carmona</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 -115 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-244 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 -118 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">967</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Tampa Bay Devil Rays
E. Jackson</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -108 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+196 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -129 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 09:35 AM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">968</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Toronto Blue Jays
A. Burnett</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 -102 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-214 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +119 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">969</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Boston Red Sox
C. Schilling</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-133 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 -116 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 12:35 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">970</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Oakland Athletics
J. Blanton</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -131 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+125 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 +106 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">971</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Yankees
M. Mussina</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +131 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-115 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 -102 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">972</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago White Sox
J. Contreras</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -141 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+107 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 -108 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Thu 6/7</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">973</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Detroit Tigers
M. Maroth</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +122 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-123 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 11 -122 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:35 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">974</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Texas Rangers
K. Loe</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -132 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+115 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 11 +112
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Jack]

Roughly had a look, like Cubs, SF, and PHI ML.

Also the pitching duel in Det/Tex game looks promising, but 11 is a high total, and also we are getting an under ump and wind will be blowing in@20mph.

KC/CLE game will be hot 80+ and wind blowing out@20mph, maybe the bats will wake up finally?

PIT/WAS total is quite low, 8.

And phi/nym under maybe?

 

[E.T.G.]

Ill just take this shit from my thread...my thoughts on the Cubs game w/out all the #'s


Cubs struggle in ATL (0-2 this yr, 2-8 L10) and the Braves are struggling right now. If it were not for a comeback in the 7th inning vs. the Marlins, they would have been swept. To be short, they have not looked good this wk and are not hitting, no matter which pitcher they face. The Cubs are pretty hard team to bet, everyone knows that. Ramirez left the game today vs. the Brewers and he won't play in this game, might not play the whole series and that HURTS the Cubs offense. Both pitchers have success vs. their opponents in the times they have faced them. Hill, despite hitting a rocky stretch of 3 games where he gave up 5er (Phils), 4er (NYM), 5er (SD) still sports a 2.89era on the yr and rebounded nicely from that stretch with his last start vs. ATL. James has now gone 7 straight starts without surrendering more than 3er, pretty impressive. It concerns me that he gets hit at .307 at home and .281 overall. Hill has been pretty unhittable this yr sporting a .197overall against hitters. I think he has success vs. the Braves because they are a high strikeout team and that plays into what he does as a pitcher and his curveball. There is no question that the Cubs bullpen is a HUGGGGGE liability here. Another thing that concerns me, the Cubs are just 4-7 when Hill pitches, the guy has a 2.89era this yr and they only have won 4 of his 11 starts. The Braves are 7-5 when Chuckie pitches. I would expect the Braves to remain without McCann tomorrow and the loss of Chipper is hurting this offense. I think line movement wise, the Braves get a lot of backing and the Cubs become +money tomorrow. That is what it would take for me to bet them atleast. As far as an O/U goes, I have an interest in that because each pitcher is capable of 6-7 shutdown innings in this game. The loss of Ramirez hurts the Cubs offense (.500 in 4ab vs. James)... I would like to see an ump for the game and check the weather, both of which I have not done yet. Baseball is a streaky sport and that is why I would have to go with the hotter team this wk, which just happens to be the Cubs if I were to choose a side. I can't bet the Braves and "hope" that the offense turns it on because Hill has had success vs them and they have shown very little signs of life this week.

lean to the Cubs if it were +money, lean to the Under 8.5-110 stronger.

 

[E.T.G.]

Other thoughts... I think the Phillies are tempting but they are going for a SWEEP in SHEA..

Think the Astros are tempting...Oswalt is 0-2 in his last 3 games w/ 4.5era but is 5-1 w/ 1.73 vs. Rockies and Fogg, well he sucks.

Giants w/ Lowry, Def will give them a hard look...

I wanted to play the A's, think BOSOX and Schilling get hammered and drive this line UP but......A's are going for a 4game SWEEP?

 

[tuck321]

White Sox and Oakland look obvious.

 

[E.T.G.]

Can the A's take 4 straight games from the BoSox.. I am well aware of what Blanton has done at home this yr and no one in the world hates Curt Schilling more than me, maybe my Dad, but that is about it. This line is sure to rise as well, I just am a bit cautious about the A's being able to pull this off. Blanton gave up 4er over 6ip vs. BoSox this yr but is 2-0 w/ 3.10 in 3games vs. them. Schilling is 3-3 w/ 3.61era. Pitched 7ip of 2run baseball vs them this yr

 

[Jack]

why you hate Schilling ETG? Good point about the sweep factor on the phi/nym game.

There is something very strange about the Oakland ballpark, very hard to score runs.

 

[E.T.G.]

I wouldn't be so quick to just fade the Yankees either. The WhiteSox do not have an offense right now, not even close. If Mussina was the least bit reliable this yr I would give them a much harder look. Yankees don't want to split the series 2-2, they want to win it and if any team knows Contreras it is them. His #'s are much better than Mussina's and he is a dog but how in the world can you expect anything from a team that now averages like 2.5runs in their last 7games.

 

[E.T.G.]

why you hate Schilling ETG? Good point about the sweep factor on the phi/nym game.

.

I just can't stand the guy, Plain and simple. I think he should keep his mouth shut a lot more than he does.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Other thoughts... I think the Phillies are tempting but they are going for a SWEEP in SHEA..

Think the Astros are tempting...Oswalt is 0-2 in his last 3 games w/ 4.5era but is 5-1 w/ 1.73 vs. Rockies and Fogg, well he sucks.

Giants w/ Lowry, Def will give them a hard look...

I wanted to play the A's, think BOSOX and Schilling get hammered and drive this line UP but......A's are going for a 4game SWEEP?

Tough game to bet on in Philly/Mets

Remember that Oswalt still hasn't had a good road outting this year with the exception @ Cincy. Just take a look, they are not pretty. I kept that in mind when he faced Arizona but didn't feel comfortable backing Livan who went on to pitch a CG... ha. Still Foggs coming back from an injury so it really should be a no play I think.

Like the value on the Giants/Lowry and I'd back the A's once again, I'll just wait for them to get pounded.

 

[reNew Orleans]

I once again think KC has extreme value. The Indians are not the best against LH... 10-7 on the year and 6-5 on the road, 4-2 at home. Seems they've cooled off a bit after a couple of big series sandwiched by these Royals. Sure Carmona has pitched brilliantly but he's not a big K pitcher which to me doesn't equate to a line warranting that much of juice.

 

[tuck321]

Blanton is 8-0 at home in June. 2-0 at home on Thursday. 3-0 lifetime vs Boston all of which were at Boston and twice vs Curt. Oakland has been a great last game of series team and Curt is 5-5 last 10 road games. Why is Oakland not the listed favorite. HMP ump Kulpa seems neutral between the 2 and last year went 7-4 for home dogs. Seems a very reasonable play.

 

[E.T.G.]

Blanton is 8-0 at home in June. 2-0 at home on Thursday. 3-0 lifetime vs Boston all of which were at Boston and twice vs Curt. Oakland has been a great last game of series team and Curt is 5-5 last 10 road games. Why is Oakland not the listed favorite. HMP ump Kulpa seems neutral between the 2 and last year went 7-4 for home dogs. Seems a very reasonable play.

Tuck, I agree with everything you say and to be honest I really wanted BoSox to win tonight so I could back Blanton with no bad feelings about a sweep here but again we are talking taking 4 games in a row from the best team in baseball?

My ideal situation would have been for BoSox to win tonight, Every homer to pound the shit out of Schilling tomorrow and me come back Oakland at +135 to +140..We still might get that number, I just don't like going for a 4 game sweep

 

[E.T.G.]

I once again think KC has extreme value. The Indians are not the best against LH... 10-7 on the year and 6-5 on the road, 4-2 at home. Seems they've cooled off a bit after a couple of big series sandwiched by these Royals. Sure Carmona has pitched brilliantly but he's not a big K pitcher which to me doesn't equate to a line warranting that much of juice.

Carmona is also human in his last 3 sporting a 5.40era and he gave up 3er last start vs. Royals. I wouldn't touch the Indians in this game, just way too much money to even consider it. So I agree, def value

 

[E.T.G.]

Remember that Oswalt still hasn't had a good road outting this year with the exception @ Cincy. Just take a look, they are not pretty. I kept that in mind when he faced Arizona but didn't feel comfortable backing Livan who went on to pitch a CG... ha. Still Foggs coming back from an injury so it really should be a no play I think.
.

The way I was looking at this game...I know Oswalt has not been Roy Oswalt lately and I just don't know what is up with the guy. The Astros as a team have been utter shit as well...

L3 Games: 0-2, 20ip, 23h, 4.50era, 6bb, 10k
On the road: 2-3, 5.91era, 32ip, 39h, 13bb, 19k... Batters hitting .298 off him
Career vs. Rockies: 5-1, 1.73era, 6g, 41.2ip, 36h, 8er, 6bb, 31k

However as you said, Fogg back from Injury and this guy just sucks, plain and simple.

1-5 w/ 4.53era, 53.2ip, 61h this yr
3-6 w/ 6.09era, 13g, 75.1ip, 77h, 51er in his career vs Stros.

Astros offense is showing some signs of life this week also

 

[reNew Orleans]

Carmona is also human in his last 3 sporting a 5.40era and he gave up 3er last start vs. Royals. I wouldn't touch the Indians in this game, just way too much money to even consider it. So I agree, def value

wow... +240 is being offered, I am just thinking that Cleveland backers are going to be saying NO WAY the Royals win another series against the Indians and might get even better value, but IDK... +240 is incredible.

 

[tuck321]

Regarding WS, very simply they are not a good team but Moose is just too old and 3-7 last 10 on the road and 2-5 at WS. Yankees have not been a good last game of series team and I do expect WS to step up tomorrow.

 

[E.T.G.]

Regarding WS, very simply they are not a good team but Moose is just too old and 3-7 last 10 on the road and 2-5 at WS. Yankees have not been a good last game of series team and I do expect WS to step up tomorrow.

Valid and Moose's #'s will keep me off this game tomorrow but I really believe Yankees use this week as a spring board for some momentum. They have the Pirates in interleague play this wkend, should be able to rack some wins up there. Overall they are 5-2 last 7 games. WSox average 2.7runs/game last 7 games. This game might be decided after the starters leave but at this point, I just can't back Moose and hope he comes out and goes 6ip-3er, I just can't do it but I wouldn't jump at backing the ChiSox either.

 

[tuck321]

No real opinon now on the Cleveland game but Carmona has been looking like a goose in Night games. Day games are where he wins and looks like a star but that said Cleveland as a team is just playing too bad now for this number so the situation requires some thought.

 

[reNew Orleans]

SD RL +102... Peavy bounces back with his 3 ER outting and Kuo must face a hot Pads team in only his 2nd start

Pitt/Nats OVER 8... although Snell did better his last game but Chico, he does alright but gives up runs and the bullpens already been worked two days in a row. Snell is my concern in this game going over.

 

[E.T.G.]

Peavy is something like 7-1 w/ under 2.5era vs. Dodgers in his career. Kuo is OVERMATCHED here. Agree very much here

 

[Satyr]

I'm definitely not an anti-sweep kind of player. I might play Oakland here if I find the indicators I search for, regardless of sweep possibility.

I just don't see what's so incredible with a team sweeping another team, professional sports are based on momentum, among other things, and if you're confident, fired up, and you got your shit going, you win games. Easy as that.
So depending on the line move (I expect Boston pounders to inflate the price) I might be on the Oaktown Athletics.
I just hate these "OH MY GOD THEY ARE GOING TO GET SWEPT " antics. So what? like the end of the world is nearing if the Boston Red Sox get swept. They've done it to plenty of teams this year, why not getting torched once themselves.

I cannot have my money involved in a Cubs game, not tonight. Same goes to CHW - Yanks. White Sox are, at least I thought so, a high profile team that needs waking up. Apparently they're so clueless that CTG's finest would torture them until our pen would fuck it up :an_roll_laugh:

These guys are cold, and they're a no go for me. However I won't be laying incredible road chalk with the Yanks either. UNDER 10 @ plus money looks enticing but solely because the Sox are stinking right now and 1-7 is a possible score. Two high profile pitchers on the mound as well. Small lean.



I'm looking at St Louis at this point. Wainwright got his shit together and has had some solid starts, even though the price shows it, the price is still ok considering how Redbirds are suddenly surging and Cincinnati are REALLY bad right now.


Carmona has some regressing to do after opening the season like a Cy freaking Young, and Odalis Perez, well that's just ugly ass bitch. I would be scared going against him, or meeting him in the elevator, nevertheless trying to hit his pitch and making him angry. So I think the Indians know they shouldn't hit him .
OK, kidding aside, the price on KC is HUGE, but I still think they lose. Whether it's 2-1 kind of game or a 9-3 kind of game I don't know.
It's sooooooo easy to make a case for a 35-22 overall, 20-7 home team with excellent scoring production, a team which can basically win a game in 1 or 2 good innings. But these guys have problems with Kansas.
But Carmona still has MONSTER numbers during the day (1.45 ERA) and Perez is just plain awful (7.02 ERA in last 3), and I can't back the Royals at this point.


I'm close to backing AJ Burnett on the runline. Edwin Jackson has been so bad, and the Jays have actually played some baseball going into this one. My only concern is, they couldn't capitalize on a 6 run 9th inning momentum from the night before, and they obviously have some issues with Tampa. That's the only thing that might divert me from this play.


Colbert might be the play at the Shea. Maine is far from his studlike pitching days, NYM are only 1-3 in his last 4 starts, and Hamels seems to inspire the team as no other pitcher can, in the Phillies rotation at least. Mets have had their share of winning, maybe a small regression period wouldn't be coming that unexpectedly. The only downside is, the Mets feast off left handed pitching.



Texas: Loe has been on my fade list only so far. The price is diverting me from pounding the Tigers, even though it should be a fair price considering how bad these Rangers are. The reason is, Maroth's disastrous numbers against the Rangers. Texas coming off a shutout beating, 0-10 should get some pride going against a guy they've killed before (ERA +8). However, Loe is 1-5, 6.37 ERA overall, 0-2, 8.10 in his last 3, and 7.29 ERA in his last 8. I don't think I can back a lousy team and a lousy pitcher like this. I guess I'm not that sharp .
Can you imagine the line (total) is 12. LOL. Makes sense but I can't play it. I actually have a feeling Maroth comes out strong.

Washington actually looks good. I don't think Pittsburgh offense should be laying road chalk of this kind.




Leans so far:

Oakland (2.30)
Cardinals (1.67)
Washington (2.30)
Detroit (1.76)



Btw I'm going to cut down on the number of my plays, I've entered a small funk and need momentum shift , I think that's the way to go at this point, focusing on lesser plays for a while.

 

[Satyr]

Regarding WS, very simply they are not a good team but Moose is just too old and 3-7 last 10 on the road and 2-5 at WS. Yankees have not been a good last game of series team and I do expect WS to step up tomorrow.

well GL to you if you decide to back them. I can't make myself to put money on a lifeless bunch they are at the moment. These guys can't hit to save their lives, and they're far from looking like a team capable of winning. I was lured into playing them behind one of their solid starters last night at THAT KIND OF PLUS MONEY at HOME, but they got their asses handed to them. What else to say, apart I'm not betting on them until they can show me they still play baseball.

 

[E.T.G.]

hmm, curious about the Washington lean..

My main concern with Sweeps, 4 game sweeps to start with, its hard to do. It is hard to take 4 straight games from an opponent and in this situation it is prob the best team in baseball right now. The A's are atleast at home while the Phillies are on the road.

 

[slim5150]

I see 5 that I like for tomorrow. These are in order of preference, very close to taking the first two. I want to whittle these down to 1 or 2 for tomorrow. Maybe someone can help me out.

I will add important numbers, or what I feel are important stats where applicable. I will list the current 5dimes reduced line, however I will probably wait till the morning to place any bets and see where the line is then. I will try and predict movement or list any movement that I have seen in the last hour or so while I have been going over the card.

wash +125
oak +127
tb ov 9.5 even
cws +117
Det -124

At this hour I am not responsible for any spelling errors.

If Chico wins, it is at home. 3-0 at home and 0-4 on the road on the year. L5 he has pitched, the Nats have been winners, with one being a winning decision. L10 he has been involved in have been 7 -3 to the good, with any losses coming on the road. If one is going to bet Chico, it looks to be at home. the line has gone down a couple cents in the last hour, so there might be a few already on the CHico train.

What's the rule on Oakland, bet them when thy are a dog after June 1. While they have been very good after June over the years, this is not the kind of trend I want to hang my hat on. One concern I have here is Boston getting swept in this 4 game set. Will they? Schilling is nothing spectacular against Oakland or on the road. His two recorded losses have come on the road. Blanton at home and vs Boston looks real good. If the "boston won't get swept money" comes rolling in, this will be an auto play. THis may still get added regardless. I should be around before this one starts, so I might wait to see a lineup card as funny things sometimes happen on "get away day". I think the line should go up in Oakland's favor.

Look at the numbers for tb/tor in this tilt. am I crazy to intitally feel the over, or will burnett totally shut down the Rays. Even if he does, will the Jays not score enough on Edwin to put this past on their own. Total guys, please respond. No idea on the line movement.

Are the bats really that cold as to one being put off the White Sox here. Isn't it a good thing to fade the Yanks when they are road Chalk or something like that. I dunno, The amount of offensive firepower the Yanks posess is always a concern. COntreras is apt to give up lots a couple hits and or walks, which is never a good thing vs a lineup that seems to hit everywhere in their lineup. The numbers for COntreras and Mussina are about a wash in my eyes, so I guess I am leaning with the home team here.

I guess this a is lean on the pitcher whiah a perfect away record this year. Altho games Maroth has been involved in away from home are 5-1 overall, his 3 decisions are all wins. This is my least favorite play for a reason. Their Pen troubles are well documented. Thge jeckyl and Hyde nature of the Rangers usually keeps me away from their games, and Loe is no world beater. Actually he is pretty bad at home. Both tend to be high ERA guys, so maybe an over would be a better play in this game. But Again, I ain't much of a totals guy.

What do you guys think?

 

[t-dot]

IMO, best play on board is L.Hernandez vs SF.

Hernandez is a beast at home. 3-0 and avgs. close to 8 innings/home start.

 

[E.T.G.]

Slim, I have watched about 5 WSox games in the last 2wks, they are very very tough team to bet right now. Very tough

 

[E.T.G.]

IMO, best play on board is L.Hernandez vs SF.

Hernandez is a beast at home. 3-0 and avgs. close to 8 innings/home start.

And I lean to Giants +110. lol

 

[Satyr]

WSox average 2.7runs/game last 7 games.

 

[reNew Orleans]

i agree with the oakland and over in tor/tampa slim, also I think Det should win, i'm just not comfortable betting games with texas, dont have a feel for them

 

[Satyr]

hmm, curious about the Washington lean..

My main concern with Sweeps, 4 game sweeps to start with, its hard to do. It is hard to take 4 straight games from an opponent and in this situation it is prob the best team in baseball right now. The A's are atleast at home while the Phillies are on the road.

Yeh I know it's hard to do, but the price is really rewarding, and it's not like you're getting some call up against Schilling.

The other thing is, Schilling is a bit overpriced.

Btw I really think these Red Sox need some time to regroup. They had this poor schedule thing coming into this week and they're losing games to a team that rises in June.

The price on Schilling will attract A LOT of action, you will have anti sweep theories all over the place, people counting on the best team in baseball to avoid it.

I don't buy it. I know it's hard to do but bouncing back on the road after losing 4 straight overall and being stuck in a poor scheduling spot which probably drained you, against a team that is obviously developing some chemistry, should be equally tough.

That said, Oakland are 2.30 .

:shake:

 

[E.T.G.]

Satyr, I feel you and really would like to get Blanton +135 to +140 tomorrow as I have said because I am expecting a lot of BoSox money to pour in

 

[slim5150]

lowry, good numbers vs the Snakes, Bad numbers away. Good numbers in the day, worse at night. I think Livan should be a little higher based on his home success, but bonds should be rested for this one, and that means a HR or a runner on base, depending on the situation.

How the Backs have been finding ways to win games lately is a definite plus, but If the GIants score for Lowry, he will win. I just can't figure out if they will or not.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Satyr Cards look solid - stopped paying attention to Wainwright after his LAD game but I was expecting him to be a very good pitcher this year. Also love the A's again.

 

[slim5150]

I am also expecting a great deal of Boston money to come in. I like Oakland now, I have a feeling I am going to love them in the morning.

reNew, this is a great way to get a jump start on the next days card. I enjoy coming in here and discussing the games and see where my analysis may be lacking or right on. This should be a nightly feature. If I get around to it before you do, I will surely start it up.

 

[t-dot]

lowry, good numbers vs the Snakes, Bad numbers away. Good numbers in the day, worse at night. I think Livan should be a little higher based on his home success, but bonds should be rested for this one, and that means a HR or a runner on base, depending on the situation.

How the Backs have been finding ways to win games lately is a definite plus, but If the GIants score for Lowry, he will win. I just can't figure out if they will or not.

They only time zona lost a LH home start was 3-1. Hernandez went a strong 8 with 9k's. His team just couldnt hit. Sf's best chance is if Lowry pitches a gem, and Sf geta 4-5 runs off of Livian. Come to think of it, UNder seems solid too.

 

[reNew Orleans]

I am also expecting a great deal of Boston money to come in. I like Oakland now, I have a feeling I am going to love them in the morning.

reNew, this is a great way to get a jump start on the next days card. I enjoy coming in here and discussing the games and see where my analysis may be lacking or right on. This should be a nightly feature. If I get around to it before you do, I will surely start it up.

Yea I like getting to see others thoughts, we did it in the NBA Forum for a little while, just posting overnight lines but that died down. I just got reminded by this when Green posted some of his thoughts for discussion a few days ago. Everyones input is valuable :shake:

 

[E.T.G.]

Agree with every1 above, I think it really helps people to just discuss things. Not every1 is going to agree but that is the great thing about it, you get to see angels you originally didn't see.

Overall seems this card is a little difficult.. dunno though.

 

[slim5150]

t-dot, seems like others are seeing the sma ethings you are ans the under 8.5 for the game is juiced to -124. That is on the "reduced juice" section of 5dimes. The regular plays section is the same. Interesting...

Another one that may look decent, the Mets at near even money. Discuss..

 

[reNew Orleans]

This is looking very appealing, to me atleast:

Kansas City @ Cleveland UNDER 10
Basically if you are expecting Carmona to pitch like he has been during the day, then this should go under. Perez, sure he's not great and will most likely give up a few runs but the Indians don't hit Lefties as well as some may picture them since they can put up runs in bunches. Perez can offer the Royals 6 innings and the Royals bullpen, please take not, they are pretty good. I think you will find this out soon enough and I really do think the Royals will hold some value for a while because their bullpen will not blow games for them or will keep them in games for a comeback win.

 

[tuck321]

Some action called for on Toronto. Tampa plays next day at Florida the in state rival that swept them earlier and is going with worst pitcher. Some concern on the day aspect but 2006 Burnett was 5-2 in the day with a 3.52 era and 2005 6-4 with a 3.23 day era so a strong situational play I think.

 

[slim5150]

Green, that is the absolute truth. That is where the ultimate value lies, seeing how others are seeing the same games that look really really good at first glance. One person breaking down one game may take as much time as 3 bpeople breaking down 4 games collectively, and they may come up with something that was not noticed by the lone ranger.

 

[reNew Orleans]

t-dot, seems like others are seeing the sma ethings you are ans the under 8.5 for the game is juiced to -124. That is on the "reduced juice" section of 5dimes. The regular plays section is the same. Interesting...

Another one that may look decent, the Mets at near even money. Discuss..

This really is a tough game to bet on, but the Mets offense is just not clicking right now and they are hurting even more now that Easley and Endy may both go to the DL, then Valentin may have to come back after being on the DL and produce? I just think this is the right time to fade the Mets... too many injuries and Delgado and Beltran slumping.

 

[E.T.G.]

Another one that may look decent, the Mets at near even money. Discuss..

Phillies -103 / Mets -107... O 7.5 -115 / U 7.5 -105:

Very interesting game here. First, I have a secret mancrush on Hamels, which isn't so secret anymore. Second, Philly is going for a Sweep of NYM in Shea. Hamels and Maine faced off previously this yr in NY, the Mets won the game 11-5 but don't let the score trick you, Mets scored 7 runs in the bottom of the 8th and had 4 unearned runs that game.

Hamels this yr: 8-2, 3.55era, 12g, 2cg, 83.2ip, 75h, 11hr, 21bb, 91k
Hamels L3 games: 2-1, 21ip, 17h, 4.29era, 4bb, 21k
Hamels vs. Mets this yr: 0-0, 3.00era, 1g, 6ip, 6h, 2er, 3bb, 7k
Hamels Career vs. Mets: 1-0, 1.29era, 2g, 14ip, 10h, 2er, 3bb, 16k
Hamels Away this yr: 4-1, 3.92era, 6g, 41.1ip, 40h, 14bb, 53k and batters hitting .256 off him and .240 overall

Maine this yr: 6-3, 2.81era, 11g, 67.1ip, 53h, 34bb, 64k
Maine L3 games: 1-2, 4.76era, 17ip, 17h, 7bb, 19k
Maine vs. Philly this yr: 0-0, 3.86era, 1g, 4.2ip, 5h, 2er, 6bb, 4k
Maine Career vs. Philly: 3-0, 2.35era, 4g, 23ip, 21h, 6er, 11bb, 14k
Maine home this yr: 1-3, 4.13era, 5g, 28.1ip, 32h, 14bb, 24 and batters hitting .286 off him and .221 overall

Mets vs. Hamels:

Beltran = .400 in 5ab, Delgado = .500 in 4ab, LoDuca = .000 in 6ab, Reyes = .286 in 7ab, Wright = .000 in 6ab

Phillies vs. Maine:

Burrell = .250 in 12ab, Rollins = .091 in 11ab, Utley = .500 in 10ab, Victorino = .250 in 8ab, Howard = .200 in 10ab

Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games
Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games

Series this yr is tied 3-3

Going into Wednesdays game, Phillies batting .217 and averaging 3.85 runs/game.....Mets batting .225 and averaging 2.85 runs/game

Noteable injuries: Mets will most likely be without Easley at 2b and Chavez in LF, both are doubtful. Replacing them will be Newhan/Johnson (LF), Gomez (RF), and Gotay (2b)...Mets are very top heavy order tomorrow w/ the Pitcher to anchor.

THOUGHTS:

I like Hamels a lot and think the kid is going to be something special one day as long as he stays healthy. He has the higher era but imo I don't think that Maine's era of 2.81 truly reflects what he has looked like lately. Maine posts a 4.76era over his last 3 games and while I think that is high, his era falls in the range of 3.75-4.25 on the yr imo, not 2.81..The Phillies are 8-4 when Hamels pitches and the Mets are 8-3 when Maine throws, something has to give here. On the yr, Mets hit LHP at .319, a mind blowing number however this number is now at .276 in L10 games.. Phillies hit RHP better than they do LHP and on the yr avg .274 and .263 in L10 games. I think most people feel Mets crush LHP but I am starting to feel that their numbers are regressing to a more normal number and a number in range with how the Phillies hit RHP. Now its pretty hard to understand why Maine struggles at home and his home numbers are not even close to him overall numbers or his away numbers. Batters are hitting .286 off Maine when he pitches in Shea. Hamels has had a problem this yr with the long ball, giving up 11hr's this yr, the good thing is that he doesnt walk many batters to really kill himself with the HR's. Shea is a pretty big park so he might be able to keep it in the park. The Mets are suffering from some injuries and lineup is getting lighter. Alou, Valentin, and Green have been down, now Easley and Chavez will be unavailble.. A potential lineup could look something like this, not sure what order but pretty sure on the players:

Reyes (SS), Gotay (2b), Beltran (CF), Delgado (1b), Wright (3b), LoDuca (C), Newhan (LF), Gomez (RF), Maine (P)...

Hamels has to avoid letting Reyes, Beltran, or Delgado beat him, the only 3 batters in the Mets lineup with any type of success off him. Hamels should be able to get through the bottom part of the order with little trouble. Philly bullpen always puts a scare and some risk into a play but Hamels averages 7ip/start on the yr. Maine averages 6ip/start and has not worked into the 7th inning in any of his last 6 starts. As far as line movement comes in, Hamels is a pretty well known and liked pitcher but the Mets have a lot of backers so that "avoid the sweep" money could be coming in which in that cause would basically drop Hamels to +money.

lean to the Phillies
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[t-dot]

Agree with the Green. i lean Phillies or no play at all.

I expected the Mets to be closer to -110 than a pickem. The books want Mets $$$. Mets lead the east and their ace is starting at home.

Close to 65% on the mets and its still -104?

 

[Unicorn]

A very tricky card today so I'm just going to pass and play my share of games on Friday. BOL to everyone who decide to play something today!

Cheers!

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">My leans: Nats, Cards, Tigers, Tor/Drays Over, ChiSox. I will prob. only have 4-5 plays today myself, Friday will be a big day. Phils/Mets is very tough for me....As is the Tribe and the Royals, Royals might be worth a value play, won't touch it myself. I am also considering the Over in the Nats/Pirates game.
</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[SteveMoneydog]

tough game between the mets and phillies today.
i think the mets will try everything to avoid getting swept but hamels is tough to beat and the mets bullpen lost the last two games.

the mets have played seven straight unders and now we have a matchup between two pitchers who have a lifetime 2.3 (maine vs. phillies) and 1.2 lifetime era (hamels vs. mets). this season the under in mets games vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season is 13-4.

i guess under is the best choice in this game.

 

[slim5150]

green, great shit on the Mets game. I think I was so caught up in the fact they hit lefties so well, was one of my main, no pun intended, factors. this info was good enough for me to not like the mets, but that don't mean I really like the Phillies now. Unless the line did something crazy.....

 

[tuck321]

Last 2 years Detroit has played at Texas and shut them out once each year. Now last night. Previously Texas came back both times and won the next game. In his 6 home starts Loe has 3 quality starts. Mets arrive in Detroit tomorrow. Maroth looks like garbage and Texas has much the better bullpen and just lost 10-0. What does this add up to?