Thursday Discussion/Lines

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
NBA Basketball - Thu 2/12
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More

Thu 2/12 701 Miami Heat +3.5 -113 OVER 196.5 +102
04:05 PM 702 Chicago Bulls -3.5 +103 UNDER 196.5 -112

Thu 2/12 703 Boston Celtics -2.5 -111 OVER 197 +101
06:35 PM 704 Dallas Mavericks +2.5 +101 UNDER 197 -111

Thu 2/12 705 Portland Trail Blazers +2 +105 OVER 217 -113
07:35 PM 706 Golden State Warriors -2 -115 UNDER 217 +103
 
Somebody with more money that I have really likes the Warriors on Thursday. Line has gone from the Blazers opening as 1.5 point favs to them being essentially 2.5 point dogs now. Can't fade that kind of line movement honestly. I don't see it personally. I suppose it's just the b2b on the last night before the ASG that has money flowing the Warriors way. Need to reevaluate.
 
No reports yet, but I can pretty much predict that Ray Allen is out for the C's. A shooter is worthless with a hyperextended thumb on the shooting hand. Another tough game to figure out honestly. Mavs have been playing great, but they still have no idea how to stop anybody on the defensive end. Only lean would be to the over, but have reservations thinking about Rondo shutting down Kidd. This card blows.
 
Alright maybe I can entertain a Bulls 1st Q/Half play. Huge comeback against the Pistons and they can certainly build off of that in the 1st half in nothing else. Still marginal at best, but if they truly have playoff aspirations they have to come out strong and win this game. With Reinsdorf calling them out about a week ago they've seem to have played better. This series has some undertones that are rarely mentioned since the Heat won the EC finals and the Bulls bitch slapped them by 32 at home the night they got their rings. Likely the only game I'm actually interested in playing
 
pretty weak card I agree---

portland is not a great team, but they took it easy vs OK city and will be ready for the game-

G state can win this game, but chalk with g state is dangerous as they lose all the time, just like clippers, cant really trust those teams.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
pretty weak card I agree---

portland is not a great team, but they took it easy vs OK city and will be ready for the game-

G state can win this game, but chalk with g state is dangerous as they lose all the time, just like clippers, cant really trust those teams.
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Warriors are 6-2 ATS with Ellis back in the lineup including 2-0 laying points.
 
I must find something need to work harder, its not acceptable there are 3 games and 3 winners, just have to find that bastard.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
I must find something need to work harder, its not acceptable there are 3 games and 3 winners, just have to find that bastard.
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agreed this card blows. Like the thinking on Chicago 1st H and may get into that one.
might force a play in GS if I go to the game, small if anything

GS is on a serious roll in this homestand. Not much to look ahead to in GS considering we are not represented in any way. Portland on b2b. Portland beat us on the offensive glass at portland, but it was pretty even when we beat them here. Monta is eating balls since he came back, but is getting saved by Jackson playing the best ball maybe of his career. Wouldn't fade GS on this tear here
 
JPicks said:
Warriors are 6-2 ATS with Ellis back in the lineup including 2-0 laying points.
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JPICKS, I rarely if ever look at STATS ever, some people do and I am impressed by their ability to do that, yourself and TUCK 421 and CRIMES are on top of the stats.

Personally I use Meatball rule #4 and rely entirely on FEEL and intuition.

In reality stats like covering and so forth are overrated--

I check how teams are playing and winning margins but rarely go into wins and losses vs spread because that is really irrelevant for a one game bet-


Ex- Warriors could be 6-2 ATS and 2-0 laying points that is TRUE, but it gives you no extra advantage tomorrow playing portland and laying -2 points. It is 100% irrelevant, as the future is not based on the past stats-

Its not like in the 4th qtr if ROY is going off Golden state can take a timeout and use those stats and other past covers? THe game is decided on the court, and the past means nothing for the future--

I do appreciate your dilligence and hard work with the stats as both you and TUCK are able to give me some good stats and advise me of things that I would never even consider.

keep up the good work.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
JPICKS, I rarely if ever look at STATS ever, some people do and I am impressed by their ability to do that, yourself and TUCK 421 and CRIMES are on top of the stats.

Personally I use Meatball rule #4 and rely entirely on FEEL and intuition.

In reality stats like covering and so forth are overrated--

I check how teams are playing and winning margins but rarely go into wins and losses vs spread because that is really irrelevant for a one game bet-


Ex- Warriors could be 6-2 ATS and 2-0 laying points that is TRUE, but it gives you no extra advantage tomorrow playing portland and laying -2 points. It is 100% irrelevant, as the future is not based on the past stats-

Its not like in the 4th qtr if ROY is going off Golden state can take a timeout and use those stats and other past covers? THe game is decided on the court, and the past means nothing for the future--

I do appreciate your dilligence and hard work with the stats as both you and TUCK are able to give me some good stats and advise me of things that I would never even consider.

keep up the good work.
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Well then WTF?
 
its true stats can't predict the future, but it is impossible to predict perfectly anything in capping. The best we can do is bet what we hope will win more than lose, so winning at a 55% clips or just anything at +EV. True stats may not show what roy will do in the fourth qtr, but if Portland is (completely making this up) say 2-12 ATS b2b, it may say something about their conditioning/just how they handle b2bs. that 2 in the 2-12 may have been where roy took over in the 4th and covered it, but if you bet that spot 14 times and hit 12, can't be upset or say you should've seen it coming at those 2 losses. Probably a bad example, but say we got a 60% free throw shooter at the line and someone offers you -110 on make/miss. It completely does matter that in the past he's 60% and getting make at -110 is a discount even if he misses
 
I guess I should rephrase waht I meant--

I meant stats alone dont tell the entire story of a game--

They are good for information and to know how a team is playing--

What I meant is some people rely on stats alone and dont consider the teams at all, that is where you lose-

I rely on some research with more Feeling and INTUTION-

That is what I meant, but I use stats for sure, but the right amount of stats and the important ones I use.
 
Chicago is an Eastern Conf home fav in its 2nd game off a 5+ game road trip playing a Conf opponent

since 03-04 teams in this spot are 7-22-2 ATS (22.58% cover rate)


oh, and they also won their 1st game back off their 5+ game road trip - only 22.22% of teams have covered ATS both their 1st & 2nd games back off a 5+ game road trip since 03-04.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
I guess I should rephrase waht I meant--

I meant stats alone dont tell the entire story of a game--

They are good for information and to know how a team is playing--

What I meant is some people rely on stats alone and dont consider the teams at all, that is where you lose-

I rely on some research with more Feeling and INTUTION-

That is what I meant, but I use stats for sure, but the right amount of stats and the important ones I use.
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:cheers: Agreed. So why do the Blazers who are 4 games up on the 8th seed and have trade rumors swirling have any desire to travel down to the bay area and beat a Warriors team is finally healthy who has a gigantic chip on their shoulder with rest? Just curious what your feeling is? I'm pretty damn confident that if the Thunder wouldn't have been the ones on the b2b with the Lakers that they may have actually had a great shot to beat the Blazers on Wednesday. Always looking to see who is actually motivated on the last game before the ASG.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Chicago is an Eastern Conf home fav in its 2nd game off a 5+ game road trip playing a Conf opponent

since 03-04 teams in this spot are 7-22-2 ATS (22.58% cover rate)


oh, and they also won their 1st game back off their 5+ game road trip - only 22.22% of teams have covered ATS both their 1st & 2nd games back off a 5+ game road trip since 03-04.
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I suppose I should send you a Valentine gift one of these days. I sure as hell hope you bet a lot more than you post because your trends are amazing. Still not sure how I'm going to attack this game, but will certainly look to bet against the Bulls 2nd half if the opportunity presents itself.
 
I already played the Heat and will be playing the GSW/Port. total Over and the Warriors.

1) bayliss is pushing the ball and driving because he is fresh. The rest of the team is tired. dead tired (other than Roy)
I think this team is hitting the wall. OKC shouldnt have been that close, the Blazers blew their load to blow them out in the 4th.
Their ft's and shooting percentages have dipped (tired legs, not enough lift)

2)Aldridge and Roy are getting run into the ground, theyve played alot of minutes redently. nate wanted to give them a rest during the OKC game, but could only give away the last 2 minutes of the game.

Oden and rudy have played more this year than any other year in the past; especially Rudy.

3) With Blake out both sergio and bayliss like the open court game.

4) GSW is starting to turn it up a notch eventhough MEllis is still getting his legs. If Westbrook can abuse Bayliss and Sergio, no way they keep Ellis and co. from the paint.

5) Oden will foul out and will be lucky to play 20 minutes.
 
Played GS minus 2 almost immediately. If this team had been available at the beginning of the season I think they would be going to the playoffs. Recently at home they lost by 1 to Cleveland on a last second sshot and lost to the Spurs in OT. Both those teams are much better than Portland on the road. They crushed the Knicks, Utah, The Suns as well as Atlanta. Those were serious games. Tomorow is a seious game. They have beat Portland 7 in a row at home. Portland last 10 on the road beat the Clippers, Nets, Hornets and Chicago. When Portland beat the Hornets, the Honets were playing 4 in 6 and had lost 2 in a row. The Hornets really have not been playing well for a lng time. When Portland beat NJ, it was worst 3 in 4 for NJ and they had just been blasted by Boston. The Nets lost that game because they got 17 free throws to Portlands 33. It was a middle game in a 6 losses and 1 win series for NJ.
When Portland beat Chicago it was 3 in 4 for Chicago but not the worst. Chicago was 3-7 the 10 games before that meeting. Not interesting in rehashing the Clipper victory. Just not seeing any reason here for GS not to be a favorite.
In tonights game Portland playing a very tired OKC team shot 70% on their free throws and had 15 turn overs. Did not see the game they beat the Knicks by 1 as something to be proud of. Last 10 Portland has 7 wins and I think all 7 are frauds where they just hit teams in goods spots.
Portland still has quality players but I think they are correctly dogs and by more than this spread. Think Portland still has an edge on rebounding. They also have a decent record playing b-b. Just a 55% favorite playing a 45% dog with the favorite GS while the dog happens to be playing at a place they have done very poorly at.
 
I wouldnt be surprised if GSW beat Portland by DD.

I think Portland beat NO because paul left mid way through the game.

It doesnt take much to turn Portland into a jumpshooting team, which plays into the hands of the Warriors.
 
Umm just basic situational thinking, although I sure would have liked the opening number of 4 more than I do the current 2.5. I'd be shocked if they threw Ray Ray out there tomorrow with the thumb thing, this being the last game before the break. Pierce and Rondo poured in 43 minutes last night, with Rondo spending most of his chasing CP3 around. Wright poured in some big numbers the other night with Terry out, maybe he has another big game in him here? I just think Dallas will be much fresher and hungrier here, and the crowd should be insane. I dunno if Doc will kill his guys in this spot if Dallas has a consistent small-medium lead in the 2H. Very easy for Boston to experience offensive droughts with Allen out, I mean there's just not much offensive firepower there.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Chicago is an Eastern Conf home fav in its 2nd game off a 5+ game road trip playing a Conf opponent

since 03-04 teams in this spot are 7-22-2 ATS (22.58% cover rate)


oh, and they also won their 1st game back off their 5+ game road trip - only 22.22% of teams have covered ATS both their 1st & 2nd games back off a 5+ game road trip since 03-04.
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I meant to come out of retirement posting wise and make my 1st of the year with Clippers -3.5 2H last night. I never made it back to the comp to post it but played it.

Tonight, my gut says the Bulls just don't win this game. Nobody inside to expose the Heat's weaknesses, like Denver just did. Heat, want this just as bad as the Bulls do...

Rose/Chalmers, Wade back in Chicago, should be a good game.

I'll take the points and hope the Bulls win on a last second shot.
 
Allen injures thumb before break: Ray Allen hyperextended his right thumb during the first half of Boston's game against the New Orleans Hornets on Wednesday night and did not return. Allen had only one point in the first quarter on a technical free throw before the injury occurred, after which he could be seen flexing his hand. He remained in the game during the first half, playing 19 minutes, but missed the only three shots he attempted. Allen, who was wearing a wrap on his right hand in the locker room, is expected to be ready to go Thursday night in Dallas.
(Updated 02/11/2009).

Last game Boston absolutely demolished Dallas by 24 pts. This was the game Eddie House blew his load and went 7-11 from 3 point land and ended up with 23 points. Eddie fucking House people, so if Allen has problems 2nite do NOT be suprised if House starts making it rain again. Dallas had big problems stoping the 3's that night as Boston went 16-27 59.3%. Dirk Nowitzki started on Tuesday night against the Kings but is playing with a banged up knee after hurting it in the Mavs last game against Chicago in which he scored 44 points. Last game KG limited Dirk to 4-17 shooting and made him look like a D-Leaguer <- no fucking way Dirk comes close to 44 2nite. Terry had surgery to stabilize the fourth metacarpal fracture in his left hand and could be out until mid March. Rondo is too fast for Kidd and Barea is a midget. Now you have to ask, will Howard step up? Will I think Pierce will have that answer for you 2nite. I just love Boston's Defence compared to Dallas and look for Boston to go into the ASB with a WIN. People are thinking revenge at HOME, Im thinking they might get blown the fuck out again at HOME.:36_11_6:
 
Killa said:
Umm just basic situational thinking, although I sure would have liked the opening number of 4 more than I do the current 2.5. I'd be shocked if they threw Ray Ray out there tomorrow with the thumb thing, this being the last game before the break. Pierce and Rondo poured in 43 minutes last night, with Rondo spending most of his chasing CP3 around. Wright poured in some big numbers the other night with Terry out, maybe he has another big game in him here? I just think Dallas will be much fresher and hungrier here, and the crowd should be insane. I dunno if Doc will kill his guys in this spot if Dallas has a consistent small-medium lead in the 2H. Very easy for Boston to experience offensive droughts with Allen out, I mean there's just not much offensive firepower there.
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Has Boston ever shut it down to any playoff caliber team, ever? I know they lost a few road games earlier this year... and a bunch of them were stinkers to teams like Bobcats and Pacers... but I think with Allen out they will still be very, very hungry to go into the break on a win. Think both Pierce and Garnett have huge advantages over Howard/Dirk.
 
tuck321 said:
Played GS minus 2 almost immediately. If this team had been available at the beginning of the season I think they would be going to the playoffs. Recently at home they lost by 1 to Cleveland on a last second sshot and lost to the Spurs in OT. Both those teams are much better than Portland on the road. They crushed the Knicks, Utah, The Suns as well as Atlanta. Those were serious games. Tomorow is a seious game. They have beat Portland 7 in a row at home. Portland last 10 on the road beat the Clippers, Nets, Hornets and Chicago. When Portland beat the Hornets, the Honets were playing 4 in 6 and had lost 2 in a row. The Hornets really have not been playing well for a lng time. When Portland beat NJ, it was worst 3 in 4 for NJ and they had just been blasted by Boston. The Nets lost that game because they got 17 free throws to Portlands 33. It was a middle game in a 6 losses and 1 win series for NJ.
When Portland beat Chicago it was 3 in 4 for Chicago but not the worst. Chicago was 3-7 the 10 games before that meeting. Not interesting in rehashing the Clipper victory. Just not seeing any reason here for GS not to be a favorite.
In tonights game Portland playing a very tired OKC team shot 70% on their free throws and had 15 turn overs. Did not see the game they beat the Knicks by 1 as something to be proud of. Last 10 Portland has 7 wins and I think all 7 are frauds where they just hit teams in goods spots.
Portland still has quality players but I think they are correctly dogs and by more than this spread. Think Portland still has an edge on rebounding. They also have a decent record playing b-b. Just a 55% favorite playing a 45% dog with the favorite GS while the dog happens to be playing at a place they have done very poorly at.
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Love this Warriors team right now too.
 
initail lean to the Heat here +4

like that Wade is back in Chicago and off a bad loss

Bulls i believe are 7-0 ATS run lately...came back to beat Detriot but that aint saying much...dont like going against the ATS streak BUT Miami is 10-3 SU in games following a double digit loss in their previous game
 
Retburj13 said:
initail lean to the Heat here +4

like that Wade is back in Chicago and off a bad loss

Bulls i believe are 7-0 ATS run lately...came back to beat Detriot but that aint saying much...dont like going against the ATS streak BUT Miami is 10-3 SU in games following a double digit loss in their previous game
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sometimes this Heat team can not score and Wade has a hard time carrying the load. Hopefully Marion can help that out as he is returning to form. But when Wade needs some rest, thats when I shit my pants.
 
^^^

oh i agree Wade tends to have to carry the load for his team and that can be scary cause the others kinda just stand and watch...although Chalmers and Cook and Marion with Haslem shoud help him here with a break upcoming...just think the Heat dont want to go into ASB with a losing streak esp gettin beat badly by Nuggs last game

But Miama did embarass Bulls earlier this year and DelNegro did mention he wouldn't forget it with Mia callin timeouts late up DD
 
JPicks said:
No reports yet, but I can pretty much predict that Ray Allen is out for the C's. A shooter is worthless with a hyperextended thumb on the shooting hand. Another tough game to figure out honestly. Mavs have been playing great, but they still have no idea how to stop anybody on the defensive end. Only lean would be to the over, but have reservations thinking about Rondo shutting down Kidd. This card blows.
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Looks like Allen is gonna try to give it go tonight.
 
Nothing in stone here but at Half time you might if the game has been relatively sedate think about a third quarter over bet in GS
 
Marion should be out tonight. Injured his left eye AGAIN in practice.

Shawn Marion injured during Heat practice sessions

Miami Heat forward Shawn Marion was knocked out of Wednesday's practice because of an eye injury and is questionable for Thursday's game at Chicago.
Marion was injured late in the workout, when forward Michael Beasley inadvertently hit him in the left eye during a drill. Marion was taken to a doctor for treatment and diagnosed with a bruised left eye orbit. Marion, the Heat's leading rebounder, traveled with the team Wednesday and will be evaluated Thursday.
It was the second time in a week that Marion was hit in the left eye. He caught an inadvertent elbow from Allen Iverson in the first half of a loss at Detroit on Feb. 7. Marion was taken to the locker room but returned shortly to finish the game.
The incident at practice Wednesday was the latest in a line of freak injuries Marion has sustained.
He was forced to wear a protective mask for several games after he broke his nose in a Nov. 1 game at Charlotte. He missed six games because of a strained left groin he sustained on a dunk attempt during a loss at Houston on Jan. 17, and he also has missed time because of back spasms
Source: Miami Herald
 
Think Dallas might be a lean if Allen is in. His shooting hand is injured and it's more than likely that he will have a off night because of it. With Allen in, it might mess up the rhythm since he takes an average of 10-15 shots a game.
 
Ca$He said:
Marion should be out tonight. Injured his left eye AGAIN in practice.

Shawn Marion injured during Heat practice sessions

Miami Heat forward Shawn Marion was knocked out of Wednesday's practice because of an eye injury and is questionable for Thursday's game at Chicago.
Marion was injured late in the workout, when forward Michael Beasley inadvertently hit him in the left eye during a drill. Marion was taken to a doctor for treatment and diagnosed with a bruised left eye orbit. Marion, the Heat's leading rebounder, traveled with the team Wednesday and will be evaluated Thursday.
It was the second time in a week that Marion was hit in the left eye. He caught an inadvertent elbow from Allen Iverson in the first half of a loss at Detroit on Feb. 7. Marion was taken to the locker room but returned shortly to finish the game.
The incident at practice Wednesday was the latest in a line of freak injuries Marion has sustained.
He was forced to wear a protective mask for several games after he broke his nose in a Nov. 1 game at Charlotte. He missed six games because of a strained left groin he sustained on a dunk attempt during a loss at Houston on Jan. 17, and he also has missed time because of back spasms
Source: Miami Herald
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<DL class=byline>By Ira Winderman | South Florida Sun-Sentinel <DD>1:12 PM EST, February 12, 2009 </DD></DL>CHICAGO - Miami Heat forward Shawn Marion participated in this morning's shootaround at the United Center and is expected to be in the starting lineup for tonight's game against the Chicago Bulls.

Marion left Wednesday's practice at AmericanAirlines Arena after being inadvertently poked in the left eye by teammate Michael Beasley during a drill.

Marion was diagnosed Wednesday in South Florida with a bruised left orbit and traveled with the team later in the day, with tonight's game to be followed by the NBA All-Star break.

Marion was poked in the same eye in a Feb. 4 road loss to the Detroit Pistons at the Palace of Auburn Hills and continued through that game,
 
Havent been home all day but had a few plays already ...Heat +4 and 3rd Q Heat +1 , Dal 1st Q +1 , still pending on Dal 2nd Q small , Dal 1st H and full game , Under 195 Dallas and small 3rd and 4th Q Unders .....

Did anyone not notice how Off the Quarter totals were ???Saw 48 , 47.5 , 47.5 and 47.5 which is only 191.5 on a 195 total .....???? I bet the UNDER as a HINT ...

Late game looking at the under again but have to play GSW especially ML .....last 6 GSW home games ( in their past 10 overall games ) beat NYK , beat Utah badly , beat Pho , lose in OT to SA on a 4th Quarter choke , beat LAC and lose to Cle by 1 on a buzzer beater ...

Series is home dominanted and remeber last meeting in Portland?? I had the Blazers and they barely covered thanks to 1 run in the 2nd H but GSW played them real solid despite a 13 pt loss.......

GSW ML and -2.5 for me .....small play on the under ...109-103 guess:cheers:
 
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